UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar

[Jordan3399]

Any UK guys recommend an online bookie other than 365? (just got limited to fuck)

365 was great as not only could you livebet but you could also cash out during fights if you didn't like how things were going (did this last weekend, cashed out RDA for a small loss and jumped on Leon after rd 2), which other books can you do this on?

Good luck with the bets this weekend y'all. Not seeing any lines I like pre-fight so probably a strictly Live Bet card for me.

Skybet, Betfair, Betway, Coral, WilliamHill, Betstars, Ohmbet, Betsafe, Ladbrokes. Probably want to try the Betfair Exchange and/or Matchbook too.

Skybet and WilliamHill have the best cashout of those.
Betstars will always have livebet for the full card.
Skybet and Betfair have the best props.

You probably want accounts with all, gives you the best prices, allows you to arb or freeroll easier and stops you getting banned quickly on individual books.

Oddschecker will help look for the best prices or more books
https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma

 

[SamHale]

Skybet, Betfair, Betway, Coral, WilliamHill, Betstars, Ohmbet, Betsafe, Ladbrokes. Probably want to try the Betfair Exchange and/or Matchbook too.

Skybet and WilliamHill have the best cashout of those.
Betstars will always have livebet for the full card.
Skybet and Betfair have the best props.

You probably want accounts with all, gives you the best prices, allows you to arb or freeroll easier and stops you getting banned quickly in individual books.

Oddschecker will help look for the best prices or more books

Quality, thanks mate!

 

[danareem]

Apparently B365 has Holloway KO/TKO/DQ in round 4 at -130.

Can anyone confirm? If so that's incredibly, incredibly odd.

Yes it’s wierd, but Holloway round 4 (either KO/sub) is +900

 

[Martialbeef]

Yes it’s wierd, but Holloway round 4 (either KO/sub) is +900

I've got Holloway by TKO or KO at evens.

 

[KTFOvids]

Arman -150
neal + holloway -150

 

[clemente]

Betting on Spencer and sending money to my PayPal have the same ROI

 

[TrueAscension]

Fuck, I hate being on the opposite end of you on ME's.

Last week I was on Leon, and after seeing your pick and your parlay hinging on him, I almost switched sides.

As I sit here in the sauna on 300mg of edibles trying to analyze this fight for the 21st time, I still think that it's going to be way closer than people think.

When's the last time we saw a wrestler as relentless, and with cardio as good as Edgar, try to grind on Max?

Not to mention Max may come in a slight bit gunshy after his last fight, and Frankie mixes in his strikes with TD's better than almost anyone else.

If Frankie, and this is a big IF, gets Max down at all in the first round, even if Max pops back up, that's going to linger in Max's mind and create more opportunities for Frankie to strike.

I could be 100% wrong, and Max could show us he has great TDD, and obliterate Frankie standing and put him away in the 3rd. I honestly wouldn't be shocked or all that upset, Max is such a likeable guy.

But he hasn't fought a wrestler the caliber of Frankie, nor has he fought anyone with the cardio of Frankie.

I almost wish he had fought Mendes in his prime before the suspension, just to see how his wrestling defense has improved since his early UFC fights.

Chad has a stronger power double, and an arguably stronger top game than Edgar does, but it would be a decent benchmark to reference.

A lot of people on Frankie think this is going to look like his fight with Yair, but I strongly disagree. Max has a MUCH better striking game than Yair, better cardio, and if he gets taken down, he will get back up.

I think Frankie has the opportunity to steal rounds early, and edge out a close decision.

Or get obliterated and retire. But I still see value here.

Best of luck Max backers. It is what it is regardless of the result.

Sorry, I was also stoned when I responded. I also have a couple of dogs with NOT Max by TKO. I think that's a really good value because I like either Max winning by decision and of course it covers all of Edgar's stuff. I only really parlay stuff into the ME and co main to increase max bets on those with dogs I think will win. So basically the dog bet gets double or tripled if that makes any sense..

 

[mkess101]

Fuck, I hate being on the opposite end of you on ME's.

Last week I was on Leon, and after seeing your pick and your parlay hinging on him, I almost switched sides.

As I sit here in the sauna on 300mg of edibles trying to analyze this fight for the 21st time, I still think that it's going to be way closer than people think.

When's the last time we saw a wrestler as relentless, and with cardio as good as Edgar, try to grind on Max?

Not to mention Max may come in a slight bit gunshy after his last fight, and Frankie mixes in his strikes with TD's better than almost anyone else.

If Frankie, and this is a big IF, gets Max down at all in the first round, even if Max pops back up, that's going to linger in Max's mind and create more opportunities for Frankie to strike.

I could be 100% wrong, and Max could show us he has great TDD, and obliterate Frankie standing and put him away in the 3rd. I honestly wouldn't be shocked or all that upset, Max is such a likeable guy.

But he hasn't fought a wrestler the caliber of Frankie, nor has he fought anyone with the cardio of Frankie.

I almost wish he had fought Mendes in his prime before the suspension, just to see how his wrestling defense has improved since his early UFC fights.

Chad has a stronger power double, and an arguably stronger top game than Edgar does, but it would be a decent benchmark to reference.

A lot of people on Frankie think this is going to look like his fight with Yair, but I strongly disagree. Max has a MUCH better striking game than Yair, better cardio, and if he gets taken down, he will get back up.

I think Frankie has the opportunity to steal rounds early, and edge out a close decision.

Or get obliterated and retire. But I still see value here.

Best of luck Max backers. It is what it is regardless of the result.

I'm going to post more thoughts later, but I agree with a lot of this. I favor Max. I'd even say I strongly favor him. But if there's value, I think it's actually on Frankie.

 

[TrueAscension]

Pending 7/27/19 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Felicia Spencer/Cris Cyborg Under 1½ -195*
Pending 7/27/19 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Arman Tsarukyan -160* vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Pending 7/27/19 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1010 Not Holloway inside distance -125* vs Holloway wins inside distance
Pending 7/27/19 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Price / Neal starts round 2 -147* vs Fight won’t start round 2
Pending 7/27/19 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1604 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -160* vs Horie / Dawodu goes 3 round distance

I added this guy this morning.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Frankie couldn't even take down washed up Cub last fight. This is a guy he easily wrestlefucked in his prime. Max has great takedown defense and is bigger and more athletic than Frankie.

Maybe Frankie gets like...1 or 2 takedowns. But that's going to pale in comparison to the beatdown that Max is going to lay on him standing up. He's just too old, I don't see how Frankie wins this fight.

 

[Yotsuya]

Fuck, I hate being on the opposite end of you on ME's.

Last week I was on Leon, and after seeing your pick and your parlay hinging on him, I almost switched sides.

As I sit here in the sauna on 300mg of edibles trying to analyze this fight for the 21st time, I still think that it's going to be way closer than people think.

When's the last time we saw a wrestler as relentless, and with cardio as good as Edgar, try to grind on Max?

Not to mention Max may come in a slight bit gunshy after his last fight, and Frankie mixes in his strikes with TD's better than almost anyone else.

If Frankie, and this is a big IF, gets Max down at all in the first round, even if Max pops back up, that's going to linger in Max's mind and create more opportunities for Frankie to strike.

I could be 100% wrong, and Max could show us he has great TDD, and obliterate Frankie standing and put him away in the 3rd. I honestly wouldn't be shocked or all that upset, Max is such a likeable guy.

But he hasn't fought a wrestler the caliber of Frankie, nor has he fought anyone with the cardio of Frankie.

I almost wish he had fought Mendes in his prime before the suspension, just to see how his wrestling defense has improved since his early UFC fights.

Chad has a stronger power double, and an arguably stronger top game than Edgar does, but it would be a decent benchmark to reference.

A lot of people on Frankie think this is going to look like his fight with Yair, but I strongly disagree. Max has a MUCH better striking game than Yair, better cardio, and if he gets taken down, he will get back up.

I think Frankie has the opportunity to steal rounds early, and edge out a close decision.

Or get obliterated and retire. But I still see value here.

Best of luck Max backers. It is what it is regardless of the result.

I’ve only had three pints of beer on a sunny terrace, but I like Max dec because of these reasons. Gound control and g’n’p vs. stand up volume is just the kind of oranges vs. apples situalion that could get reign champ a close dec even if you could argue 3 rounds for Frankie. He has the cardio to hang with Max better than for example Aldo, so I feel like the best value for Max is in dec.

 

[theTKDguy]

Betting on Spencer and sending money to my PayPal have the same ROI

LOL

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Holloway sub +1275

I'm gonna keep throwing a few bucks on this until it hits for me lol. I've been harping about Max's guillotine for ages. Caught Lamas in it several times, finished Swanson, almost sent that bum fluke merchant Ortega to Bellator with it etc.

"But Naught....Frankie has never been subbed! You're a fool!"

To which I say...

But I like the longshot odds so sue me.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Pending 7/27/19 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Felicia Spencer/Cris Cyborg Under 1½ -195*
Pending 7/27/19 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Arman Tsarukyan -160* vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Pending 7/27/19 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1010 Not Holloway inside distance -125* vs Holloway wins inside distance
Pending 7/27/19 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Price / Neal starts round 2 -147* vs Fight won’t start round 2
Pending 7/27/19 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1604 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -160* vs Horie / Dawodu goes 3 round distance

I added this guy this morning.

I copied a version of this. You can bet ME over for almost same price.

I really like the over for ME as a straight bet.

 

[TrueAscension]

I copied a version of this. You can bet ME over for almost same price.

I really like the over for ME as a straight bet.

Very smart. Should have definitely done that instead.

 

[mkess101]

Frankie couldn't even take down washed up Cub last fight. This is a guy he easily wrestlefucked in his prime. Max has great takedown defense and is bigger and more athletic than Frankie.

Maybe Frankie gets like...1 or 2 takedowns. But that's going to pale in comparison to the beatdown that Max is going to lay on him standing up. He's just too old, I don't see how Frankie wins this fight.

I agree, I don't think Frankie's wrestling is going to be a big factor here. Maybe he scores a TD or 2, but I doubt he does much with them anyway. That said, I still think he has a decent shot of being competitive standing. Guys wilt under Max's pressure at FW because (in large part) their cardio fails them, and as they slow, he lands more and more clean shots, which continues the cycle because Max just isn't getting tired. Frankie has cardio for days. So while Max is going to land (his footwork and accuracy ensure that), I think Frankie will land some as well with his quickness and lateral movement.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I agree, I don't think Frankie's wrestling is going to be a big factor here. Maybe he scores a TD or 2, but I doubt he does much with them anyway. That said, I still think he has a decent shot of being competitive standing. Guys wilt under Max's pressure at FW because (in large part) their cardio fails them, and as they slow, he lands more and more clean shots, which continues the cycle because Max just isn't getting tired. Frankie has cardio for days. So while Max is going to land (his footwork and accuracy ensure that), I think Frankie will land some as well with his quickness and lateral movement.

Not sure if it’s a cardio thing so much as the effect of Max’s cumulative damage. And I wouldn’t bet on Frankie’s 37 y/o chin being able to absorb 5 rounds of Max combos.

And even if he does...Max is faster, 1” reach, insane output. Don’t see how Frankie outworks Max in volume, and Max has an iron chin.

Even if Frankie has aged well and can hang in on the feet and not get badly hurt, Max likely wins a decision on volume anyway

I just don’t see Frankie’s path to victory outside of a miracle KO

 

[mkess101]

Okay here's my thoughts. I did get to watch a LITTLE tape on some of these. Not much, but better than other recent cards where it was basically none.

Edgar/Max is dog or pass imo. Frankie dec above +500 probably worth a stab. He's not finishing Max. My last post #336 itt tells why I think this. Max also took damage in his last fight, and now went from going up to LW to back to having to cut to 145. Because of the beating Max put on Ortega, people forget he also took a little damage in that fight. There's some questions with Max here (albeit minor ones). Too much juice to bet him imo, although I do think he wins.

Cyborg is going to smash Spencer. The thing is, I think she may come out at least a little more careful than people think. Obviously Spencer isn't Nunes or anything close, but Cyborg knows she was reckless in that fight. Cyborg rd 2 at +450 for a tiny stab has way more appeal than Cyborg rd 1 at -115.

I'm having a really hard time seeing anything other than Neal KO/TKO. I watched Price/Means, and it was just as I remembered. Price was getting CARVED UP before landing that bomb. He's just way, way too hittable. Yeah, he's got pop so is dangerous but Neal is just so much more polished. -185 is somewhat steep juice for an itd prop, but I think it's justified here and has some value. I'd play Neal itd at that price.

OAM dec +253 I think has small value. He hasn't looked as good lately as he did in 2016-2017, but the talent is still there. Tsarukyen should probably be a very slight favorite, and I don't see a finish either way in this one.

Barriault/Jotko I have no opinion. Jotko is hard to figure out, and I can't even remember Barriault.

Davis literally might be the most boring fighter, male or female, on the roster. She's not good enough to win here imo, but she'll find a way to make it go all 15 minutes and be boring AF. Araujo dec +182 I guess...

Dawodu/Horie no opinion. Know absolutely nothing about Horie.

Might take a small stab on Choi itd at +254. Long layoff for Tucker and Choi looks like maybe he has some pop?

Every prop and the ML and o/u seems like it's priced right for Figuerido/Pantoja. Tip your cap to the bookies and pass imo. Live bet it if you need action.

Long shot bet of the night maybe Robertson KO/TKO at +1300. I could see her getting mount in a scramble and finishing with gnp instead of by sub. Unlikely but if someone wants to take a flier, I think this has a shot of hitting.

Koch +100 has value imo. I think he should be favored, and is just better than Spencer.

That's it. BOL guys.

 

[mkess101]

Not sure if it’s a cardio thing so much as the effect of Max’s cumulative damage. And I wouldn’t bet on Frankie’s 37 y/o chin being able to absorb 5 rounds of Max combos.

And even if he does...Max is faster, 1” reach, insane output. Don’t see how Frankie outworks Max in volume, and Max has an iron chin.

Even if Frankie has aged well and can hang in on the feet and not get badly hurt, Max likely wins a decision on volume anyway

I just don’t see Frankie’s path to victory outside of a miracle KO

It's cumulative damage for sure, but it's exacerbated by the fact that Max doesn't slow and his opponents do. Max starts a bit slowly, and although he's certainly skilled, he's not overwhelming top tier guys from the opening bell. He works up to it because he can keep his pace the same in rd 3, 4, 5 as he does early. Whereas for example Aldo was getting the better of him early in both of their fights but faded and as soon as that happens Max is a shark that smells blood. I don't necessarily think Max is faster, and Frankie is one of the few guys who can potentially match his output.

Don't get me wrong, I cap Max probably -250 or so. He probably wins. I just think the line is a LITTLE too wide.

 

[theTKDguy]

Holloway sub +1275

I'm gonna keep throwing a few bucks on this until it hits for me lol. I've been harping about Max's guillotine for ages. Caught Lamas in it several times, finished Swanson, almost sent that bum fluke merchant Ortega to Bellator with it etc.

"But Naught....Frankie has never been subbed! You're a fool!"

To which I say...

But I like the longshot odds so sue me.

Better bet frankie by sub then