UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[Wiktoruspro]

Sean O'Malley is out.

Fuckin usada, there isnt anything else on The World that I hate more

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Sean O'Malley is out.

This should've been announced a week ago.

Someone made a post about it on another forum that I lurk, and the moderators removed it immediately.

On his vlog series, he actually talked about getting flagged by USADA and not fighting. Then the vlog was pulled about an hour after it was uploaded.

It was all but confirmed then. I guess the UFC didn't want him to announce it until now, though.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

So far I'm pretty big on Tonya Evinger, Pettis, and Khabib.

Aspen Ladd looked absolutely terrible in her last fight. Evinger isn't an incredible fighter by any means, but she's not afraid to let her hands go, has good wrestling(good enough to stuff Aspen's takedowns). The only question mark is that she's coming off of an injury, and is 37. Low level WMMA fights always tend to fuck me over, so I'm not that confident in this one. But at +150, there's value on Tonya imo.

Like everyone else in here has mentioned, Pettis is a pretty bad stylistic matchup for Tony. Anyone else in the top 5, I'd fade Pettis for sure. Tony doesn't shoot for takedowns, and is primarily a standup fighter that has gotten a few lucky wins in his 11 fight winning streak. He was losing to RDA and Barboza before eye poking the fuck out of them.

I'm not trying to discredit Tony. He's an incredible fighter who will give any fighter problems. But he gets hit a lot, and Pettis is a great striker. Lando rocked him with some spinning shit that Pettis probably wont throw, but you never know. I feel like Tony should be -230, but as of right now he's -300, and was -350 yesterday.

Khabib will pressure Conor, eat his best shots, and take him down and maul him. I don't think we're going to see the same Conor that fight Alvarez, that hunger isn't there anymore. He won his two belts, made a fuckload of money fighting Floyd, and win or lose he'll fight Nate for another huge payday and probably retire.

I want to bet on Waterson, but she's an undersized 115er that isn't reliable enough to bet on. A lot of these fights just scream pass to me -- Formiga/Pettis(I can see both of their paths to victory), Reyes/OSP. I need to watch more tape on Lentz/Maynard before pulling the trigger on that fight.

Anyways, I'll be in Vegas for the event. Probably wont go to it, I'd rather spend the money gambling, because I'm a fucking degenerate.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Does Maynard take lentz down easy? How many takedown everyone think he gets IF he wins. Everyone seems to get back up easy enough from his td so may need a few to get the job done. Trying to cap if for draftkings so need an idea for number if td. Extra problem is if lentz goes for the guillotine some ain’t gonna count

Only watch a couple of fights back of each so far. If I had to guess 5-7. Maybe a couple off due to guillotine attempts

If Maynard gets it done itd should be from a knockdown. See lentz shutting his offence down from bottom. And Maynard doesn’t get that many strikes off anyways.

How’s lentz power to test dat chin? Or a finish from guillotine most likley

 

[Danis_champ]

Just me on Lansberg? IMO Pudilova that lost 2 times for Lansberg will win Yana Kunitskaya. Styles make fights, ok but Lansberg is very agreesive style for Yana and pace with your thai also clinch game will be too much for russian girl. Lansberg ML and Decision are goods picks for me.

Yes you are the only one..
Kunitskaya bullied Cyborg in clinch for few minutes until something happened (I dont exactly remember what) Lina has no ground game is almost 40 plus pillow fists. I think Yana folds her up..

Like everyone else in here has mentioned, Pettis is a pretty bad stylistic matchup for Tony. Anyone else in the top 5, I'd fade Pettis for sure. Tony doesn't shoot for takedowns, and is primarily a standup fighter that has gotten a few lucky wins in his 11 fight winning streak. He was losing to RDA and Barboza before eye poking the fuck out of them.

I'm not trying to discredit Tony. He's an incredible fighter who will give any fighter problems. But he gets hit a lot, and Pettis is a great striker. Lando rocked him with some spinning shit that Pettis probably wont throw, but you never know. I feel like Tony should be -230, but as of right now he's -300, and was -350 yesterday.

Dude I like your Herrig bet but picking Pettis here is wishful thinking. Pettis only looked good in 1 fight of his last 8 fights and this against Chiesa who is barely top 15 fighter. You sound like prime Pettis is back or something. Last time when Pettis finished someone standing up was almost 6 years ago... against weak body Cerrone. So Tony was losing to RDA? But what did RDA do to Pettis? Even with a bum leg I'd still pick Tony all day he is a tough bastard and he is gonna kick Pettis's ass.

 

[Danis_champ]

How does Martin 2.0 wins this fight? He has exactly ZERO KO/TKO wins in his record and he struggled to take down lesser wrestler Krause. Flare stood with Maia for 5 rounds without getting submitted and he won r1 against Alex Oliveira if I remember correctly. Unless Flare became washed up over night I don't see how Martin can win this. DEC perhaps if anything at all

 

[raketmannen]

Yes you are the only one..
Kunitskaya bullied Cyborg in clinch for few minutes until something happened (I dont exactly remember what) Lina has no ground game is almost 40 plus pillow fists. I think Yana folds her up..



Dude I like your Herrig bet but picking Pettis here is wishful thinking. Pettis only looked good in 1 fight of his last 8 fights and this against Chiesa who is barely top 15 fighter. You sound like prime Pettis is back or something. Last time when Pettis finished someone standing up was almost 6 years ago... against weak body Cerrone. So Tony was losing to RDA? But what did RDA do to Pettis? Even with a bum leg I'd still pick Tony all day he is a tough bastard and he is gonna kick Pettis's ass.

I didn't even think Pettis looked that good against Chiesa, more like Chiesa looking like total garbage and gassing after 3 minutes

 

[Danis_champ]

I didn't even think Pettis looked that good against Chiesa, more like Chiesa looking like total garbage and gassing after 3 minutes

Yep this too he emptied his gas tank quite quickly. Don't remember him having such a shitty cardio maybe because of weight cut?

 

[Mikrougn]

I didn't even think Pettis looked that good against Chiesa, more like Chiesa looking like total garbage and gassing after 3 minutes

Agree, what chances do you give Pettis against Ferguson? You have PM btw.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Is anyone left from the old days or are we extinct? I see you @Card. Putting in work as always. Good man.

 

[t6p]

Like everyone else in here has mentioned, Pettis is a pretty bad stylistic matchup for Tony. Anyone else in the top 5, I'd fade Pettis for sure. Tony doesn't shoot for takedowns, and is primarily a standup fighter that has gotten a few lucky wins in his 11 fight winning streak. He was losing to RDA and Barboza before eye poking the fuck out of them.

I'm not trying to discredit Tony. He's an incredible fighter who will give any fighter problems. But he gets hit a lot, and Pettis is a great striker. Lando rocked him with some spinning shit that Pettis probably wont throw, but you never know. I feel like Tony should be -230, but as of right now he's -300, and was -350 yesterday.

Personally, I don't agree with the sentiment that Pettis is a bad matchup for Ferguson. In fact, I think there's a argument that the opposite is true. Yes, Pettis has struggled with guys who can grind/take him down. But, he also doesn't deal with pressure well, has a tendency to get backed up to the fence and isn't nearly as effective off his back foot. He's also shown a tendency to slow down later in fights. Ferguson brings more pressure and pushes a higher pace than maybe anyone else in the division.

I think the argument for Pettis here is more based around Ferguson's tendency to be reckless at times. Pettis is so sneaky with his submission game and Ferguson definitely puts himself in dangerous spots.

All that said, I do agree that at these prices Pettis is worth a small play. I opted to play his scorecards = no action line at +333 over his ML since I think his chances of winning a decision here are pretty low. I also stabbed his sub line at +1235.

 

[Oblivian]

Personally, I don't agree with the sentiment that Pettis is a bad matchup for Ferguson. In fact, I think there's a argument that the opposite is true. Yes, Pettis has struggled with guys who can grind/take him down. But, he also doesn't deal with pressure well, has a tendency to get backed up to the fence and isn't nearly as effective off his back foot. He's also shown a tendency to slow down later in fights. Ferguson brings more pressure and pushes a higher pace than maybe anyone else in the division.

I think the argument for Pettis here is more based around Ferguson's tendency to be reckless at times. Pettis is so sneaky with his submission game and Ferguson definitely puts himself in dangerous spots.

All that said, I do agree that at these prices Pettis is worth a small play. I opted to play his scorecards = no action line at +333 over his ML since I think his chances of winning a decision here are pretty low. I also stabbed his sub line at +1235.

I actually think this is one of the instances where they are both a bad match for each other. Ferguson's pressure and style can definitely give Pettis trouble, but that same style does leave him open. I don't think Ferguson is that good of a striker honestly.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Conor looks terrible in this interview. He is completely out of breath and can barely finish sentences. I would go super hard on him if I knew he would be himself, but now I don't even want any action on him

 

[zeckdo]

Conor looks terrible in this interview. He is completely out of breath and can barely finish sentences. I would go super hard on him if I knew he would be himself, but now I don't even want any action on him

they both look like shite right now. khabib has lots of scrapes and bruises, looks tired. Conor being out of breath in an interview is very strange too.

they'll be fine in a few days, both of them just finished the most grueling camp of their career.

 

[FightGameTheory]

Conor looks terrible in this interview. He is completely out of breath and can barely finish sentences. I would go super hard on him if I knew he would be himself, but now I don't even want any action on him

He probably just finished an intense workout immediately before the interview. Doesn’t seem too strange.

 

[t6p]

I actually think this is one of the instances where they are both a bad match for each other. Ferguson's pressure and style can definitely give Pettis trouble, but that same style does leave him open. I don't think Ferguson is that good of a striker honestly.

That's fair. I guess my point was looking at Pettis's track record (Melendez's only sub loss, Bendo's only sub loss in UFC/WEC, may have had that triangle locked up on Poirier before the ref decided to check the cut, etc.), he's probably capable of catching anyone. I'm not sure that qualifies him as a "bad matchup" for Ferguson, but he's most certainly a threat and the line is off.

 

[Gugabe]

I didn't even think Pettis looked that good against Chiesa, more like Chiesa looking like total garbage and gassing after 3 minutes

IIRC his foot broke whilst taking a backward step. I didn't catch it live, but you can clearly see Chiesa's foot folding awkwardly halfway through the first round.

I still think there's a bit of value on Pettis ITD, though. IMO this is either Pettis ITD or Ferguson Dec.

 

[Stunna77]

Between Ferg's injury and his style, IMO the value's on Pettis ML. I do think that Ferg should win, just that he should be priced closer to -200.

Much prefer Pettis NSC, which is currently a ridiculous +370. With Tony's style it will be hard to Pettis to win a dec, if he wins it is more than likely catching Tony with a head kick, club n sub, or quick setup sub (armbar vs Benson type). Also Pettis is durable AF at 155, so I really love that number on NSC.

 

[Stunna77]

Just me on Lansberg? IMO Pudilova that lost 2 times for Lansberg will win Yana Kunitskaya. Styles make fights, ok but Lansberg is very agreesive style for Yana and pace with your thai also clinch game will be too much for russian girl. Lansberg ML and Decision are goods picks for me.

Lina for sure lost the rematch to Pudilova, awful decision IMO.

 

[raketmannen]

IIRC his foot broke whilst taking a backward step. I didn't catch it live, but you can clearly see Chiesa's foot folding awkwardly halfway through the first round.

I still think there's a bit of value on Pettis ITD, though. IMO this is either Pettis ITD or Ferguson Dec.

Oh I wasn't aware of that.
My play here is FDGTD at -103, Ferguson will probably approach this fight like he did the one against Barboza since Pettis have the most trouble handling pressure. And with Khabib/Conor being on after he must feel some pressure to impress and don't win a lack luster decision so he can get passed on for the next shot at the title. IMO he will try break Pettis or die trying, I think it's more likely either one of the wins by finish than decision so I like the odds on fight don't go the distance at almost even