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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. Roads55 Brown Belt

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  2. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    Money coming in on conor today. very interested to see how high khabibs price can get.

    My plan for this event:

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Gugabe Purple Belt

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  4. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I have a unit on Conor KO and 0.5 Conor R1, and that’s all I’ll play on ME. I’ll just enjoy the show.
     
  5. Karmello Purple Belt

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    I'm big on McGregor ML @2,55 and KO @3,00-3,06 and hope Khabibs odds will get crazy. Can't really see McGregor winning any other way than by KO or some weird shit needs to happen, like Conor stuffing Khabibs TD's for at least 3 rounds or almost finishing Khabib multiple times and scoring 10-8 rounds.

    Any of you think Conor can win a decision here?

    EDIT:
    McGregor KO is still available at William Hill @3,00
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
  6. Roads55 Brown Belt

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  7. lefontes Purple Belt

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    Im big on Conor by ko. Love this!

    Martin and Lansberg will bet also.
     
  8. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    so far I got:

    conor rnd 1 ko @7.0/9.0
    conor rnd 2 ko @10.0
    khabib most td's, most sig strikes @2.1
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Conor dec is unlikely sure, but I posted in the other thread that it's absolutely possible. I took very small stabs st Conor dec +1300 and Conor split/maj dec at +2650. Conor has shown he's tough. He improved his cardio for the Nate rematch. He learned to pace himself. It's a big "if", but if he can control distance for long enough stretches he could win a dec.

    For the record I favor Khabib. But these odds got too steep imo so had to play them for tiny amounts.
     
  10. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Khabib is going to be suffocating him and pacing yourself in a stand up fight against Nate is completely different than against a smothering Khabib. I think if Conor wins, it has to be by KO in the first couple rounds and the chance of him winning a decision is really reallyyyyyyyyyy small. Against Khabibs game I think Conor will be completely gassed after that first couple rounds.

    Still everything is possible, so to insure myself of not losing a lot of money for just playing the ML and KO line I took a bit of Conor DEC @+2300 at the exchange.
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If you watch Khabib vs Barboza, Khabib is beating the hell out of Barboza the last half of rd 1. Then again some in rd 2. In rd 3 his output and ESPECIALLY the power behind his gnp slows. A lot. He still won the rd with control but Barboza is actually able to work his way back to his feet with about a minute left and the fight ends standing. Khabib was noticeably tired in the post fight interview too.

    I don't know how Conor's gas tank compares with Barboza's but I don't fully trust Khabib's ability to keep up his pace over 5 rounds. If Conor has some moments early and survives the gnp onslaught, it's not crazy that Conor takes over late.
     
  12. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Took some Formiga +120 and Borg +115. I feel pretty good about dog odds on Formiga.
     
  13. Obsidian Fracture No sunshine when it's on

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    Khabib should slow his pace GnP pace a bit over the first round or 2, compared with how he fought Barboza, AKA knows how to gameplan and will plan to grind Conor into deep waters where he has shown most weakness in the past. Conor's power will drop if his energy is sapped with his face getting smeshed.

    One of Khabib's biggest advantages is his ability to dictate the pace with his grappling, Conor will simply not be able to have the same kind of grappling cardio as Khabib. Khabib doesn't need to not get tired, he just needs to get less tired than Conor.

    Conor's always a KO threat, particularly in the early rounds. His striking is miles above Khabib's, but you can't strike effectively from your back. Surprising this thread is all over Conor so hard, maybe expecting the casual money to come in on Conor and then smash Khabib?
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I already bet Khabib ML when it dipped to -140 and I'll add if it drops below that again. Right now I'm really just watching the line and the prop lines trying to snipe value when i see it. Conor dec went from +885 to +1300 so I hit that for a bit. I'll just keep trying to pick off lines when they jump/dip for this one i think.
     
  15. rev0lver Green Belt

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    I'm with you on Khabib not having ridiculous cardio. But I think it's good enough. Personally I see Conor getting drained more if Khabib's grinding him out on the ground early. We've seen him tire before, and I don't see him having enough energy by rd 3/4 if Khabib's able to execute his gameplan early.
     
  16. rev0lver Green Belt

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    Anyone else like Black Beast over Volkov? I think the Ngannou fight might've given him a bit more value. There's no reason he can't reasonably win here.

    I strongly favor Patrick over Holtzman too. Even at these odds.
     
  17. piglord Black Belt

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    wouldn't touch black beast think he gets chewed up at range. i do like patrick a lot but may wait for you know what prop.
     
  18. rev0lver Green Belt

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    It's hard to bet against him when he makes me dog money every time lol. I just don't trust Volkov, the Werdum fight is the only time he really impressed me recently, and that's obviously a very different style of fight. I always think of him getting dropped by dadbod Tim Johnson and stealing a decision.

    For Patrick yeah I wasn't sure if I should wait or not. But it's tempting while the line's not horrible
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah if it goes past 2.5 rds I will be very interested to see how it plays out. If it ends early we kind of all know it's either gonna be Conor KO or Khabib gnp stoppage or sub. But later in the fight it becomes more murky as to what we will see.
     
  20. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    Put $300 on Conor at +150 when my betting site opened. I see a round 1 or 2 knockout for Conor given his TDD, striking angles he generates, and his size. I think Conor should be around -130 and I expect the line near even by fight time.

    Could see a decision either way if the takedowns fail for Khabib and he doesn’t have the stamina to keep setting them up.
     

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