UFC 225 - Whittaker vs Romero 2 - Chicago

[Naught2Sixty]

RDA's BJJ will only play a role if Colby is looking to play in RDA's guard, which he should most certainly avoid. Colby is not a great passer especially when he's fighting against a butterfly guard. Against the fence though, RDA forgoes BJJ and uses traditional wrestling technique instead (post, tripod, etc). RDA is in big trouble against the fence imo because Colby is looking to strip your base and prevent you from posting immediately. That almost seems like instinct for him.

Colby attacking Stun Guns base and post.




RDA attempting to build a base/post and use and underhook to get up.



In Khabibs defense he's added a lot of folkstyle wresting to his toolkit (which is almost purely Colbys wrestling style). He's a much better grappler today then he was when he fought RDA, which is super scary lol.

 

[raketmannen]

More odds out

Tuivasa -270
Arlovski +190

Bektic -175
Lamas +135

 

[Oblivian]

RDA was pretty damn active against Khabib and worked the entire time. I think Colby is in for a rough night.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

RDA was pretty damn active against Khabib and worked the entire time. I think Colby is in for a rough night.

Agreed. They're gonna make each other work. Very interesting fight imo.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I am normally a fave lover and rarely bet dogs...but man do I think there will be a ton of upsets this weekend.

Pettis
CM Punk
Anderson
Esparza
Suga Rashad
Arlovski

All live as hell. Not going to bet Yoel but he has a chance vs Bobby Knuckles as well.

 

[Chris Wang]

I am normally a fave lover and rarely bet dogs...but man do I think there will be a ton of upsets this weekend.

Pettis
CM Punk
Anderson
Esparza
Suga Rashad
Arlovski

All live as hell. Not going to bet Yoel but he has a chance vs Bobby Knuckles as well.

Suga Rashad and Arlovski definitely got a chance.

 

[piglord]

arlovski live bet after r1.

 

[ApplesVild]

arlovski live bet after r1.

Good call. If he can avoid the power early he does actually have a shot, maybe he will wrestle again and try to wear Tai out.

I mean the clear play is tai by KO but you never know with AA

 

[mkess101]

RDA was pretty damn active against Khabib and worked the entire time. I think Colby is in for a rough night.

He also did manage to get up at least twice (maybe 3 times?) He was taken back down of course, but yeah he made Khabib work for sure. And he also took almost zero damage from Khabib in that fight (as was stated, Khabib has improved in how he deals punishment from top position, but he really did basically zero damage to RDA in that fight).

That said, if we believe Colby's top game is elite (no reason not to think that) we also have to take into account his size advantage here. He's a naturally much bigger guy than either RDA or Khabib. That's going to be a lot of weight for RDA to carry early on in the fight.

 

[mkess101]

So...people really think Rashad has something left in the tank? I get that Smith is juiced, so a pass pre-fight doesn't seem like a bad idea. But betting on the shell of Rashad? Jeez...IDK.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Romero/Whittaker was down to the wire in the last 2.5 minutes. It was anyone’s fight til that point and Whittaker had more in the tank to take the win.

With them being a year older it makes sense for Whittaker to be the favorite but having a +200 next to Romero’s name is pretty tempting.

I think I’ll play that line just for odd’s sake but I’d be leaning on Whittaker due to the age factor.

Anyone can win on any given night. My only wish is that all Juice Lords die a slow painful death :|

 

[Lightbringer]

arlovski live bet after r1.

I thought the same, he may be +350-400 after round one and totally has a chance after that. IT is tough to know if Tai slows down heavily as he never goes out of the first, but he definitely slows down minute by minute in the first round.

 

[MMA fan93]

Guys opinions on Lamas (+150) Bektic (-175)? Lamas really has been facing beasts, way higher than the calibre of opponents Bektic has been facing.. i feel there is good value on Lamas here..

 

[Rebel_LioN]

So...people really think Rashad has something left in the tank? I get that Smith is juiced, so a pass pre-fight doesn't seem like a bad idea. But betting on the shell of Rashad? Jeez...IDK.

Definitely dog or pass situation. Is he done? Most likely but he kinda has a path to victory as far as styles go.

Looking at Shad’s last 4 losses, all 4 of them were tough to takedown —

Alvey (who trained with Hendo all his career.)
Dan Kelly in Mexico City
Glover
Bader

And the recent two being southpaws which Shad apparently can’t figure out. Shad likes to do that overhand right into a double leg and he can’t find the right adjustment for that.

Here, he gets a guy who has been taken down by everyone he’s fought in Anthony Smith so there’s that.

But Smith has experienced a resurgence — given his youth. Smith has looked great as of late and will probably catch Shad eventually but that comes with a -320 price and rising. I’m definitely putting money on Shad and closing my eyes. Cross my fingers and hope all Juice Lords die.

 

[piglord]

I thought the same, he may be +350-400 after round one and totally has a chance after that. IT is tough to know if Tai slows down heavily as he never goes out of the first, but he definitely slows down minute by minute in the first round.

tai has an explosive style and cuts a tonne of weight. i am going to definitely monitor his energy expenditure in the first.

 

[mkess101]

Definitely dog or pass situation. Is he done? Most likely but he kinda has a path to victory as far as styles go.

Looking at Shad’s last 4 losses, all 4 of them were tough to takedown —

Alvey (who trained with Hendo all his career.)
Dan Kelly in Mexico City
Glover
Bader

And the recent two being southpaws which Shad apparently can’t figure out. Shad likes to do that overhand right into a double leg and he can’t find the right adjustment for that.

Here, he gets a guy who has been taken down by everyone he’s fought in Anthony Smith so there’s that.

But Smith has experienced a resurgence — given his youth. Smith has looked great as of late and will probably catch Shad eventually but that comes with a -320 price and rising. I’m definitely putting money on Shad and closing my eyes. Cross my fingers and hope all Juice Lords die.

I'll probably pass. Maybe if Smith gets even more juiced I'd take a shot on Rashad, IDK. I also have a really hard time seeing Rashad stop Smith so maybe Rashad dec at an even better price is an option?

 

[Chris Wang]

Guys opinions on Lamas (+150) Bektic (-175)? Lamas really has been facing beasts, way higher than the calibre of opponents Bektic has been facing.. i feel there is good value on Lamas here..

Unless Lamas is on decline and broken he's going to win. Bektic is ok, never going to be a top 5 fighter.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

So...people really think Rashad has something left in the tank? I get that Smith is juiced, so a pass pre-fight doesn't seem like a bad idea. But betting on the shell of Rashad? Jeez...IDK.

His last two losses are split decisions and Smith is a legit terrible points fighter. All of his wins are comeback late finishes. Wouldn't be surprised if this fight follows the same template where Rashad wins the first 2 rounds and has to only survive the 3rd to get the win.

I'm not enthusiastic about the idea of betting Rashad, but Smith is so bad. Imagine if you were forced to bet Smith at like -250...that's a scary proposition. I had him at -115 vs Lombard and it was not a fun ride even though it worked out.

 

[northsofia]

I think Emmet KO is playing a big role for the Lamas odds, but Bektic doesnt have his power, so maybe there is value on Lamas ML.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Guys opinions on Lamas (+150) Bektic (-175)? Lamas really has been facing beasts, way higher than the calibre of opponents Bektic has been facing.. i feel there is good value on Lamas here..

Gotta worried that Lamas chin is dunzo after that Emmett loss. He is 36 and Bektic is 27 and has a major speed advantage, he's going to land strikes and it is going to hurt.

That said I am never laying juice on Bektic in this spot, bc I don't believe in his survival ability whatsoever. He was so dominant vs Elkins yet gave a million windows for Elkins to comeback before Elkins finally KO'd him. Wouldn't be surprised if Lamas has enough pop to get the job done or submits him if Bektic makes a mistake on the ground.

All things considered I feel like current price is accurate and I'm passing.