UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

[Andy Capp]

Am I crazy to take a 1u flyer on JJ to finish in the 4th @ +1275?

 

[Stunna77]

Am I crazy to take a 1u flyer on JJ to finish in the 4th @ +1275?

I would say the 1u is a little heavy for a rd prop on a decision machine, but a smaller stab wouldn't be....hope you are wrong though since I am on Rose NSC, haha.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Hmm find it kind of odd using OSP's latest two oppoenents against him. I understand they may not raise his profile, but is De Lima really worse than who Corey has beaten? His best win is probably Jan B who gases and has terrible tdd. Everyone who has beaten OSP on the other hand probably sparks Corey. Agree he has the better skillset, but dat chin vs a heavy hitter....no thanks.

Rather play OSP rd 1 or KO and lb Anderson after the 1st.

Here are my thoughts. Anderson has been dropped yes, but let’s look at it. Jimi? Guy has great tight technical boxing and sparked OSP too not many guys that he won’t. Shogun? Anderson recovered pretty well off that no? Shogun also is one to have decent boxing mechanics.

Villante? This is the worst one. All I can say about this one is that it was a pretty grueling fight from what I remember
(I went to that card & was funny enough sitting next to sone of Villante’s family including his really hot cousin. Me and a few guys were talking down Villante’s skills, and when he caught the KO his uncle high 5’ed me, but his daughter did the whole pissed “don’t high 5 him he was talking shit” talked to her a bit after that, and was giving her the looks, but Villante’s family decided to get in a fight amongst themselves and she disappeared )

So yeah OSP doesn’t have tight boxing. Even though Anderson doesn’t have a great chin his defense is actually not bad. Cardio, and diversity of attack will play a roll that’s why I’m rolling with Anderson.

 

[Andy Capp]

I would say the 1u is a little heavy for a rd prop on a decision machine, but a smaller stab wouldn't be....hope you are wrong though since I am on Rose NSC, haha.

It's something I normally wouldn't do, but I often get really good gut feelings that payoff big, relative to how often I bet on anything. The one and only time I bet on the world series of poker, I got Daniel Negrannu to cash at 20-1, and another time, the only time I have every bet on hockey, Boston Bruins to win in 7 games at 10 to 1. I shit you not, I do not have a history of equally big flyers that didn't payoff because I rarely ever bet longshots at all.

It will be fun to see what happens. Just for this particular card I've made a couple of questionable wagers for the fuck of it. After this one, I plan to get more serious since I will also have a lot more time for things like catching up on fights I missed over the summer and researching fighters.

 

[Stunna77]

Here are my thoughts. Anderson has been dropped yes, but let’s look at it. Jimi? Guy has great tight technical boxing and sparked OSP too not many guys that he won’t. Shogun? Anderson recovered pretty well off that no? Shogun also is one to have decent boxing mechanics.

Villante? This is the worst one. All I can say about this one is that it was a pretty grueling fight from what I remember
(I went to that card & was funny enough sitting next to sone of Villante’s family including his really hot cousin. Me and a few guys were talking down Villante’s skills, and when he caught the KO his uncle high 5’ed me, but his daughter did the whole pissed “don’t high 5 him he was talking shit” talked to her a bit after that, and was giving her the looks, but Villante’s family decided to get in a fight amongst themselves and she disappeared )

So yeah OSP doesn’t have tight boxing. Even though Anderson doesn’t have a great chin his defense is actually not bad. Cardio, and diversity of attack will play a roll that’s why I’m rolling with Anderson.

I beleive Tom Lawlor stunned him on at least one occasion in the first rd of that fight as well. The fact that Anderson didnt even come close to sniffing a td again Jimi has me hesitant. He knows his chin is suspect and appeared super hesitant. I completely understand Jimi's striking>>>>OSP's, but I would feel very uncomfortable having a big bet on Corey

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Hmm find it kind of odd using OSP's latest two oppoenents against him or his losing 4/5 before that. I understand they may not raise his profile, but is De Lima really worse than who Corey has beaten? His best win is probably Jan B who gases and has terrible tdd. Everyone who has beaten OSP on the other hand probably sparks Corey. I thought he beat Volkan fwiw, then you have Jones, Jimi (who killed corey real quick like), and Glover. Corey gets ran through by all of them besides maybe Volkan. And apparently that dude has dynamite in his hands so wouldn't be surprised if he took him out too. Agree he has the better skillset, but dat chin vs a heavy hitter....no thanks.

Rather play OSP rd 1 or KO and lb Anderson after the 1st.

You just naming names my man, you gotta look at the performances not just tapology. OSP has looked like trash since USADA showed up. From the Calvalcante fight and onwards he's been on a decline. OSP probably needs a KO to win here and he hasn't KO'd anyone in since Cummins, which was 8 fights ago.

OSP has poor cardio and Anderson is a cardio machine. This is short notice for OSP, he fought 6 weeks ago but what was he doing for those 6 weeks. Anderson is the younger and the more well rounded fighter and he has more ways to win.

OSP isn't a great striker, he's just a dangerous, opportunistic finisher. Anderson's output is significantly higher and is certainly capable of winning the striking as long as he doesn't get caught, in all likelihood though, Anderson is going to grind him out

 

[Stunna77]

You just naming names my man, you gotta look at the performances not just tapology. OSP has looked like trash since USADA showed up. From the Calvalcante fight and onwards he's been on a decline. OSP probably needs a KO to win here and he hasn't KO'd anyone in since Cummins, which was 8 fights ago.

OSP has poor cardio and Anderson is a cardio machine. This is short notice for OSP, he fought 6 weeks ago but what was he doing for those 6 weeks. Anderson is the younger and the more well rounded fighter and he has more ways to win.

OSP isn't a great striker, he's just a dangerous, opportunistic finisher. Anderson's output is significantly higher and is certainly capable of winning the striking as long as he doesn't get caught, in all likelihood though, Anderson is going to grind him out

Fully admit I didn't dive to deep into tape for this fight as I have a rule against betting chinny fighters, especially at higher weight classes, but I haven't seen enough from Anderson to be confident he doens't get sparked again. OSP would be his best win, by far and he has faltered every step up. He did probably beat Shogun, but even as diminished as he is, he dropped Corey twice and probably would've stopped him had the round not ended

 

[AxeMurderer]

I think odds are about right on osp/Anderson. I don’t trust Anderson’s chin at all.

 

[ill800]

Am I crazy to take a 1u flyer on JJ to finish in the 4th @ +1275?

100 sounds like a lot to me.

I definitely hit the line. I have a feeling johanna stops her

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

After Anderson gets an easy 30-27 you'll all be saying why didn't I bet him. The chin issues of Anderson and the likelihood of OSP getting a KO is probably exaggerated in some of your minds. OSP hasn't KO'd anyone in 8 fights and Anderson has only ever been KO'd twice.

OSP's cardio is a bigger liability than Anderon's chin. KO is probably the only way OSP wins, if not he's going to lose.

OSP is a USADA victim IMO, has not looked the same since they showed up, he looks flat in his performances.

I can understand if people want to avoid playing Anderson because of the chin issues but I do not understand people playing OSP as a favourite, you are just asking to get burned. I think the odds should be reversed, this is Anderson's fight to lose.

 

[Stunna77]

I am in no way endorsing a bet on OSP's ML by the way!

Rd 1, KO, ITD, or NSC all better imo

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Basically, while they both have similar boxing-centric styles, Duffy is much better in every area. He also has all the intangibles such as speed, power, durability, and fight IQ. Vick's game mainly consists of boxing where he's always overextending and an excessive amount of flying knees. He has good counter wrestling but has never attempted a TD except against a gassed Trujillo.

I rate Duffy as one of the top strikers in the UFC, amazing and fairly unorthodox boxing technique with a TKD black belt in his back pocket. Vick doesn't have near the wrestling ability to replicate what Poirier did, and don't forget Duffy has a black belt in Japanese Jiu Jitsu as well as a BJJ blue belt. The one knock on Duffy is his pocket boxing, but that won't be a problem with how lanky Vick is.

I've watched Vick's last 9 fights and Duffy's last 7, I feel I have a good read on the matchup and think this could be the best line of the year. I'll be rewatching tape as I now have an obscene amount on Duffy

They only concern I have with Joe is how low he keeps his hands. I understand that his athleticism and quick strikes with great reflexes allow him him get away with this for the most part, but it’s a risky proposition and extremely dangerous. First day of boxing you learn to keep your hands up and chin tucked. Now I know this is MMA and not boxing but the rationale behind the strategy remains valid. However, I suppose with Joe’s taekwondo background and his quick twitch muscle fibers he likes keeping them low to disguise strikes with his hands and to accentuate the power on his jab. Nevertheless, it is scary to keep your hands at your waist for an extended of my of time when you have an individual with 4 ounce gloves throwing darts back at you . The thing with Vick is that not only does he drop his hands a lot, but he will also leave his feet on naked flying techniques while simultaneously keeping his chin way up in the air. His risk to reward ratio is much worse than Duffy’s because of this dubious technique.

 

[pytycrys]

Again posting this shit, but it's a bit longer.

CRACK HEAD HENDRICKS!

 

[AxeMurderer]

I like osp ko

 

[Sadistics]

lol what? how is that not a line error (im not familiar w Ohm)

It's a promotion they're doing. Limits are small though, $20~ max bets which they allow you to do 1-2 times a day

 

[Stunna77]

They only concern I have with Joe is how low he keeps his hands. I understand that his athleticism and quick strikes with great reflexes allow him him get away with this for the most part, but it’s a risky proposition and extremely dangerous. First day of boxing you learn to keep your hands up and chin tucked. Now I know this is MMA and not boxing but the rationale behind the strategy remains valid. However, I suppose with Joe’s taekwondo background and his quick twitch muscle fibers he likes keeping them low to disguise strikes with his hands and to accentuate the power on his jab. Nevertheless, it is scary to keep your hands at your waist for an extended of my of time when you have an individual with 4 ounce gloves throwing darts back at you . The thing with Vick is that not only does he drop his hands a lot, but he will also leave his feet on naked flying techniques while simultaneously keeping his chin way up in the air. His risk to reward ratio is much worse than Duffy’s because of this dubious technique.

Duffy is going to land clean at multiple points in this fight, the question is can Vick eat them and fire back consistently. I do not believe he can nor do I think he can become a pressure fighter or wrestler in one training camp. All of which leads to the conclusion that he is getting slept.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Corey is the better fighter and i want to bet him but his chins a liability. He got kod by a fuckin gassed villante in r3. An ancient shogun dropped him hard twice. Manuwa one punched him. That chin dude

I understand that hesitation. Perhaps play Corey and OSP via TKO +145 and +255 respectively. Or you could always just play Corey via decision small with a round three prop finish. I just think that +145 is an awesome bet on the dog.

Check out how ridiculous this is. OSP via TKO is +255 while OSP round one TKO is +275 Lol

Corey Anderson round two and three prop finish his +1600 and +2300 respectively. That is worth a flier for sure!

 

[Stunna77]

Will probably end up on OSP KO and Anderson Rd3 props small, +2300 against a gasser whos tdd gets worse as his cardio goes seems like a must stab.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

I understand that hesitation. Perhaps play Corey and OSP via TKO +145 and +255 respectively. Or you could always just play Corey via decision small with a round three prop finish. I just think that +145 is an awesome bet on the dog.

Check out how ridiculous this is. OSP via TKO is +255 while OSP round one TKO is +275 Lol

Corey Anderson round two and three prop finish his +1600 and +2300 respectively. That is worth a flier for sure!

Sharp bettors will just play Anderson moneyline.

Just playing a guessing game with the props. I rarely play props, moneyline underdogs is how you win in this game.

 

[betrayedlurker]

After Anderson gets an easy 30-27 you'll all be saying why didn't I bet him. The chin issues of Anderson and the likelihood of OSP getting a KO is probably exaggerated in some of your minds. OSP hasn't KO'd anyone in 8 fights and Anderson has only ever been KO'd twice.

OSP's cardio is a bigger liability than Anderon's chin. KO is probably the only way OSP wins, if not he's going to lose.

OSP is a USADA victim IMO, has not looked the same since they showed up, he looks flat in his performances.

I can understand if people want to avoid playing Anderson because of the chin issues but I do not understand people playing OSP as a favourite, you are just asking to get burned. I think the odds should be reversed, this is Anderson's fight to lose.

Dawg you can't just ignore the fact that every fighter who has real power has at least dropped Corey bad, including the ghost of Shogun.