UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

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What do You think guys about Ramos and Zahabi ?
I see value in the over 2.5r
 
Wiktoruspro said:
What do You think guys about Ramos and Zahabi ?
I see value in the over 2.5r
Click to expand...

Liking Zahabi at this point. +174 is a solid line. The over seems pretty decent too, though I could see an early Ramos finish or late Zahabi finish.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
What do You think guys about Ramos and Zahabi ?
I see value in the over 2.5r
Click to expand...

Over 2.5 seems like the best bet imo. Ramos is too content to hang back waiting for a counter shot (which has power for sure) and Zahabi is fine fighting at distance and is pretty well rounded. This fight screams decision for me if Ramos doesn't land a bomb which I won't hold my breath for.
 
Hit Duffy sub line +570

Think there’s some value there.

I had already bet Duffy ml and Duffy ko

Went back and watched tape on Vick

He is a huge lightweight. I dunno how he makes 155.

Atheletic. Good movement, reaction and timing. I think most of his power comes from his size and his ability to slip punches and counter.

uses his range well. Decent tdd. Does a good job of getting to the cage and getting back up.

Tends to lift his chin up after he throws. Throws a lot of naked kicks. Dariush knew this and made him pay every time he threw a kick. Someone as crafty and experienced as Duffy will likely do the same

Duffy is better than Vick everywhere. He throws some unorthodox shots and likes to put the pressure on and control the cage.

He Will eat shots to get inside where he wants to be. He’s got some good quick kicks too. Fast hands. Good power and accuracy. Lands good counters off punches and doesn’t rely just on slipping like Vick.

Duffy has a great chin and I think he’ll be able to land something significant that hurts Vick in one of their exchanges. He will likely nullify Vick’s range with his own movement and pressure

I’m wondering if Duffy will try to take Vick down at all because he’s got a pretty good advantage on the ground.

If Vick was 5’10” I’d cap Duffy at -300

I like him at -145-160. Should probably be closer to -190
 
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ill800 said:
Hit Duffy sub line +570

Think there’s some value there.

I had already bet Duffy ml and Duffy ko

Went back and watched tape on Vick

He is a huge lightweight. I dunno how he makes 155.

Atheletic. Good movement, reaction and timing. I think most of his power comes from his size and his ability to slip punches and counter.

uses his range well. Decent tdd. Does a good job of getting to the cage and getting back up.

Tends to lift his chin up after he throws. Throws a lot of naked kicks. Dariush knew this and made him pay every time he threw a kick. Someone as crafty and experienced as Duffy will likely do the same

Duffy is better than Vick everywhere. He throws some unorthodox shots and likes to put the pressure on and control the cage.

He Will eat shots to get inside where he wants to be. He’s got some good quick kicks too. Fast hands. Good power and accuracy. Lands good counters off punches and doesn’t rely just on slipping like Vick.

Duffy has a great chin and I think he’ll be able to land something significant that hurts Vick in one of their exchanges. He will likely nullify Vick’s range with his own movement and pressure

I’m wondering if Duffy will try to take Vick down at all because he’s got a pretty good advantage on the ground.

If Vick was 5’10” I’d cap Duffy at -300

I like him at -145-160. Should probably be closer to -190
Click to expand...

That extra 5" of height just keeps that chin that much higher ;)

Agree with everything you said though and to be honest, from looking at them at staredowns, there is absolutely no way Vick is 5" taller than Duffy and I would be shocked if that 3" of reach was accurate. Just from the naked eye, but he looked to be 2" taller max.
 
ill800 said:
Hit Duffy sub line +570

Think there’s some value there.

I had already bet Duffy ml and Duffy ko

Went back and watched tape on Vick

He is a huge lightweight. I dunno how he makes 155.

Atheletic. Good movement, reaction and timing. I think most of his power comes from his size and his ability to slip punches and counter.

uses his range well. Decent tdd. Does a good job of getting to the cage and getting back up.

Tends to lift his chin up after he throws. Throws a lot of naked kicks. Dariush knew this and made him pay every time he threw a kick. Someone as crafty and experienced as Duffy will likely do the same

Duffy is better than Vick everywhere. He throws some unorthodox shots and likes to put the pressure on and control the cage.

He Will eat shots to get inside where he wants to be. He’s got some good quick kicks too. Fast hands. Good power and accuracy. Lands good counters off punches and doesn’t rely just on slipping like Vick.

Duffy has a great chin and I think he’ll be able to land something significant that hurts Vick in one of their exchanges. He will likely nullify Vick’s range with his own movement and pressure

I’m wondering if Duffy will try to take Vick down at all because he’s got a pretty good advantage on the ground.

If Vick was 5’10” I’d cap Duffy at -300

I like him at -145-160. Should probably be closer to -190
Click to expand...
respect-respect-everywhere.jpg
 
Stunna77 said:
That extra 5" of height just keeps that chin that much higher ;)

Agree with everything you said though and to be honest, from looking at them at staredowns, there is absolutely no way Vick is 5" taller than Duffy and I would be shocked if that 3" of reach was accurate. Just from the naked eye, but he looked to be 2" taller max.
Click to expand...

He does a good job of using his range/reach. That’s his best weapon. He utilizes a lot of teep kicks and pumps his jab and moves well for a big man. I think Duffy is too crafty and too good at boxing to get sucked into his counters

Dariush laid the blueprint on how to beat him. Duffy can easily hit him with the same counters. I think duff will end up hurting him with an uppercut or counter left hook
 
Sadistics said:
Line probably continues to rise when people see the size/physique difference at weigh ins. Moreso if Johny misses.
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This is one of the reasons I put Borra in a parlay what is this -200 to -220 as I anticipated the line to move in the Brazilian’s direction early and even more so once they squared off. In essence, there will be a significant size advantage for Borra. At Middleweight Hendricks just looks like the frumpy science teacher. Meanwhile Borra is rocking that aesthetically pleasing beach body accentuated by his Brazilian bronze melanin and chiseled in marble physique of which casual bettors gobble up like so much Halloween candy

However, I do agree with Budden and yourself or that this is a winnable fight for Hendricks if he fights intelligently. The first battle has been one this morning as he wouldn’t pretty healthy making wait slightly under the mandatory 186 pound limit.

Stylistically, this fight kind of reminds me of the King Mo vs. Cheick Kongo fight. Similar to Johny, at the time Mo was hitting peaks and valleys with valleys dipping way low. Officially he was 2-2 coming in but had suffered important losses to Rampage and had dropped two major bouts against Emanuel Newton — getting flatlined in one of them. Fighting Kongo he was giving up tremendous size as he was moving up in weight to fight a comic book character come to life. However, the size disadvantage for Mo was negated as he was able to use his elite wrestling fundamentals to stifle Kongo I am basically make his life miserable with repetitive take downs.

And like he said, Borra is a flat footed fighter who doesn’t understand proper angles yet. Consequently if it gets into round two and Hendricks is still somewhat fresh, the Brazilian could have those all show no go muscles and end up a sitting duck for repeated take downs.

So why am I not betting Hendricks as the underdog then? Well, the reason I like Borra in this spot is because I still think he has a favorable stylist to match up. Accordingly, if he fights intelligently and doesn’t empty the clip early I think he either gets the TKO or wins two of three rounds fairly comfortably. Why confident rises because Johnny Hendricks has all but abandoned his wrestling game. Specifically, is his last five fights only once has he shot for more than a single TDA. Moreover, I believe that we have seen the best of Johny Hendricks and he’s now comfortably residing in Jake Ellenberger territory. Wherefore, I’m not sure if he has the heart to go through the fire and to war with a young lion. I’m very skeptical as what he would do if he was getting swarmed early. Would he battle through the adversity like Johny Hendricks circa 2013 or does he have the requisite desire and inclination ATP?

Furthermore, I question whether or not his shopworn chassis has the capacity to even make this a viable option at this point.

Having said all that, I agree Hendricks has a path to victory, but at -210 to -220 I think that the Brazilian is the rightful play. It’s not like people are choosing to bet Borra at -500 or something ridiculous. Given all of the facts at this stage, fading Johny at this point is the right side. I wouldn’t advocate making a significantly large bet on Borra because he’s still a greenhorn and there are a lot of variables surrounding him, but at this price he is worth a moderate play to me.
 
Some notes from the weigh-ins for me:

-Oleksiejczyk looks like shit. My boy Ion will fuck him up in the first.
-Godbeer going bald - Confidence decrease
-Vick looking like a psycho mummy - Confidence decrease
-Old crazy Johnny looked decent for his standards. However, Borra is from another planet re physique.
-JJ looks like she had one of the easiest cuts compared to how she looked at previous weigh-ins
-IDC about what people are saying, GSP looks like the bigger guy. He is way thicker, a lot more muscles and I think he is stronger than Bisping now. I will play GSP dec.
 
pytycrys said:
Some notes from the weigh-ins for me:

-Oleksiejczyk looks like shit. My boy Ion will fuck him up in the first.
-Godbeer going bald - Confidence decrease
-Vick looking like a psycho mummy - Confidence decrease
-Old crazy Johnny looked decent for his standards. However, Borra is from another planet re physique.
-JJ looks like she had one of the easiest cuts compared to how she looked at previous weigh-ins
-IDC about what people are saying, GSP looks like the bigger guy. He is way thicker, a lot more muscles and I think he is stronger than Bisping now. I will play GSP dec.
Click to expand...

Pretty much agree. One thing I'll say about JJ is that I think she looks better at weigh-ins now, at least partially, because she is so much more tan. She used to show up ghostly white.

I'm very interested to get a better idea on the size difference between GSP and Bisping at the ceremonial weigh-ins later on.
 
Davem10 said:
So basically heres where im at

GSP vs Kosheck - 5 round Domination GSP
GSP vs Diaz - 5 round Domination GSP
GSP vs Condit - 5 round Domination GSP
GSP vs Hendricks - Solid back and forth fight won by GSP but he caught a beating


Bisping vs Kennedy - Absolute rape via Kennedy, lots of takedowns and control, landing flush hard shots over and over. Positives for Bisping were he could get up eventually, his chin is very sturdy and he keeps his pace

This is where im at with tape watching. I need to do the rest for Bisping but Kennedy was the last time Bisping actually fought someone who was coming out the gate to wrestle him hard and Bisping got dominated very badly. Im very undecided now on whether to actually bet Bisping now. I dont think it matters if he won stand up fights vs Anderson, Rockhold or Hendo. Non of them were set to wrestle and hold him down for 5 rounds. Kennedy was the last person who was set on doing such a thing and Bisping couldnt handle it at all

Very tough fight to be confident on
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Bis also arguably lossed to Leites who made it a grapple fest in the clinch.
 
waiguoren said:
Totally disagree. As I said, I was on Hendricks there and was sweating bullets as he wore himself out trying to outmuscle Magny. The takedowns weren't technical at all and he was barely succeeding at getting them. Even after he got them, he still managed to lose rounds.
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I think maybe when we've gone big on someone it can skew our perception of what's happening in the fight.

Was on Magny and wanted to buy out after a round and a half because I saw him getting dominated. I couldn't because the books agreed; Hendricks was like -1000 in-play around that time.

No idea how Magny got that decision. Beyond a couple of half-arsed sub attempts he did nothing all fight.

I guess it's one of those fights that encapsulates the wonders of the new scoring system.
 
I hope Duffy doesn't take Vick down. Vick seems to excel when guys shoot with his long limbs
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Bis also arguably lossed to Leites who made it a grapple fest in the clinch.
Click to expand...
Bisping fought Leitis and Kennedy when they were juiced. Like someone said earlier who knows how the standings would be if everyone was clean.

I also had money on Leities and had it 49-46 Bisping
 
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