UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[SBJJ]

I think people are making too many assumptions about Frankie (how he SHOULD be declining etc). I see a great opportunity to take advantage of the Yair hype if this becomes close to a pick em.

Why are people acting like some of us are crazy thinking Frankie has slowed? I just watched the 1st and 2nd Aldo fights and it's obvious he has slowed. No one is saying he is shot we are just saying he has slowed a bit. Not everything is extremes. A guy can slow without being completely shot.

He has been through wars, taken massive punishment, getting older, more injury prone. Fighting a guy faster than anyone he's fought minus Aldo. And Yair is a dog. Perfectly reasonable to back Yair here. And VERY reasonable to notice that Edgar has slowed a bit. It's just what happens

 

[King_Brown]

What is general opinion about Maia? Has he made a huge improvement in skill in the last few years or is it a result of favorable match ups?

Condit - bad bad TDD
Brown - decent or bad TDD and decent threat on the feet. Survived 2+ rounds
Nelson - forced grappling with maia.
Magny - bad TDD and not a threat on the feet. Survived 1+ rounds
La Flare - good wrestler, small threat on the feet. Dec
Yakovlev - mehh, maia couldn't finish him. Dec

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Man, this Edgar/Yair fight is just so tough to call. I feel like speed is the first thing to go and Edgar has slowed SLIGHTLY. But against a guy like Yair, that decline of speed could have huge repercussions.

Yair is also gonna be a bit bigger than Frankie. 6" height and 3" reach advantage. Obviously the biggest ? going into this fight is can Frankie keep Yair down. I honestly don't think he can. Yair looks stronger in every fight.

I think Yair is going to be able to keep Edgar at bay with his kicks and is going to out strike him to a decision. I'm not gonna be huge on it, but I think there is some value on Yair by decision +271. I also anticipate this being a great live bet fight

 

[iGnP]

What is general opinion about Maia? Has he made a huge improvement in skill in the last few years or is it a result of favorable match ups?

Condit - bad bad TDD
Brown - decent or bad TDD and decent threat on the feet. Survived 2+ rounds
Nelson - forced grappling with maia.
Magny - bad TDD and not a threat on the feet. Survived 1+ rounds
La Flare - good wrestler, small threat on the feet. Dec
Yakovlev - mehh, maia couldn't finish him. Dec

A little bit of both, but more of the former. You can't hate on his skill level at getting guys to the ground but i agree that he's had some favorable match ups in addition to the size advantage he has now that he's at WW.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Why are people acting like some of us are crazy thinking Frankie has slowed? I just watched the 1st and 2nd Aldo fights and it's obvious he has slowed. No one is saying he is shot we are just saying he has slowed a bit. Not everything is extremes. A guy can slow without being completely shot.

He has been through wars, taken massive punishment, getting older, more injury prone. Fighting a guy faster than anyone he's fought minus Aldo. And Yair is a dog. Perfectly reasonable to back Yair here. And VERY reasonable to notice that Edgar has slowed a bit. It's just what happens

Frankie probably has slowed a bit hard to argue with that. I just watched Stephens/Edgar and man Edgar still looked pretty damn good though.

Yair is a really interesting matchup and massive clash in styles. Edgar fights like a textbook with the perfect tight boxing technique. His understanding of distance and the way he moves his feet and darts in and out is really good (understatement there).

Yair on the other hand is totally unconventional throwing wild kicks and rolling strikes. I am a fan of Yair and love his unique style. It is going to be really interesting to see how these styles collide. I think this fight will be easy to livebet because by the end of r1 we are going to know the way it is heading.

On the one hand Yair could chew Edgar up if a few of those kicks land. On the other hand Edgar could make Yair look silly throwing wild stuff that isn't close to landing.

Right now I am leaning toward Edgar's tight boxing to edge this one. Yair usually settles down a bit after r1. If this was 5 rounds I would be more confident in Frankie but as it is its a close one to call. I can see a split going either way.

 

[King_Brown]

My early expert leans.

I think Yair beats Edgar.
Who ever has trained knows that its so gay to take down southpaw who has wide stance and is taller than you. Everything works opposite. Single legs maybe?
Yair is no fish on the ground and great scambler. I'm not sure Frankie can hold him down.

Andrade beats JJ 50-45 or KO. Sorry but JJ is overrated. I'm the first one to say that.

Fading Danho

Branch looks bad on tape tbh. Jotko destroys him.

Fading Aguilar. She is another lower organisation hype job. (falls into Penne and Grasso category)

Benitez 30-27

Eddie grinds out Dustin.

Maia subs Masvidal

Stip vs JDS idk yet.

 

[Jamah]

My early expert leans.

I think Yair beats Edgar.
Who ever has trained knows that its so gay to take down southpaw who has wide stance and is taller than you. Everything works opposite. Single legs maybe?
Yair is no fish on the ground and great scambler. I'm not sure Frankie can hold him down.

Andrade beats JJ 50-45 or KO. Sorry but JJ is overrated. I'm the first one to say that.

Fading Danho

Branch looks bad on tape tbh. Jotko destroys him.

Fading Aguilar. She is another lower organisation hype job. (falls into Penne and Grasso category)

Benitez 30-27

Eddie grinds out Dustin.

Maia subs Masvidal

Stip vs JDS idk yet.

Danho pulled out from the fight. Chase Sherman will fight Dmitry instead.

 

[cagebrain]

What is general opinion about Maia? Has he made a huge improvement in skill in the last few years or is it a result of favorable match ups?

Condit - bad bad TDD
Brown - decent or bad TDD and decent threat on the feet. Survived 2+ rounds
Nelson - forced grappling with maia.
Magny - bad TDD and not a threat on the feet. Survived 1+ rounds
La Flare - good wrestler, small threat on the feet. Dec
Yakovlev - mehh, maia couldn't finish him. Dec

I think his chain wrestling has gotten better because he's focused a lot more time training it, taking that time from previously training striking alot. Now his striking is just to get close and then his real big imporvement in the last few years has been the focus on the chain wrestling.

 

[DarkneT]

What is general opinion about Maia? Has he made a huge improvement in skill in the last few years or is it a result of favorable match ups?

Condit - bad bad TDD
Brown - decent or bad TDD and decent threat on the feet. Survived 2+ rounds
Nelson - forced grappling with maia.
Magny - bad TDD and not a threat on the feet. Survived 1+ rounds
La Flare - good wrestler, small threat on the feet. Dec
Yakovlev - mehh, maia couldn't finish him. Dec

Wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Maia gets him down in the first and Jorge survives, people have survived with him down there, the Condit fight has made people think Maias death touch is more than it is.

I see this being a carbon copy of the Rory mac fight

 

[cagebrain]

Wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Maia gets him down in the first and Jorge survives, people have survived with him down there, the Condit fight has made people think Maias death touch is more than it is.

I see this being a carbon copy of the Rory mac fight

I see it being a carbon copy of the Mac fight except that Maia wins the first 2 rounds and survives the 3rd.

Totally up to speculation though between our views. Minor differences in the second round can decide the winner

 

[DarkneT]

I see it being a carbon copy of the Mac fight except that Maia wins the first 2 rounds and survives the 3rd.

Totally up to speculation though between our views. Minor differences in the second round can decide the winner

Did you take into account Maias gas tank and Jorges new found killer instinct?
Not trolling just debating

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

@EzFlyer you on JJ or Andrade? need your expert opinion. thanks my man.

 

[cagebrain]

Did you take into account Maias gas tank and Jorges new found killer instinct?
Not trolling just debating

Look, I can see Mas winning. I'm playing Maia small.

 

[Yotsuya]

Did you take into account Maias gas tank and Jorges new found killer instinct?
Not trolling just debating

Not sure how much Jorge's two TKO's can be credited to his killer instict. Ellenberger can't handle being hit anymore and Cerrone had taken a ton of damage less that two months before Masvedal fight. I had a bad feeling about him taking another fight so soon.

 

[DarkneT]

Not sure how much Jorge's two TKO's can be credited to his killer instict. Ellenberger can't handle being hit anymore and Cerrone had taken a ton of damage less that two months before Masvedal fight. I had a bad feeling about him taking another fight so soon.

So your saying you think Maia can take The shots Jake and Donald took?
Gotcha...

 

[piglord]

masvidal via ko.

 

[Yotsuya]

So your saying you think Maia can take The shots Jake and Donald took?
Gotcha...

He's probably not planning to stand and trade. I haven't rewatched Ellenberger fight, but I think Cerrone got slightly rocked early on and didn't look his usual self after that.

 

[DarkneT]

He's probably not planning to stand and trade. I haven't rewatched Ellenberger fight, but I think Cerrone got slightly rocked early on and didn't look his usual self after that.

It's no secret Maia doesn't like getting hit, I don't know if you've watched all Jorges fights but Jesus Christ man, he drops and messes up everyone he fights he's a nightmare, Ross Pearson walked to the wrong corner between rounds 2-3
And the real reason Raging Al is raging is because of that 1st round when Jorge attempted murder

If Masvidal can get outta round 1 and Maia stars shooting sloppy this is gunna get really ugly

 

[mkess101]

Frankie probably has slowed a bit hard to argue with that. I just watched Stephens/Edgar and man Edgar still looked pretty damn good though.

Yair is a really interesting matchup and massive clash in styles. Edgar fights like a textbook with the perfect tight boxing technique. His understanding of distance and the way he moves his feet and darts in and out is really good (understatement there).

Yair on the other hand is totally unconventional throwing wild kicks and rolling strikes. I am a fan of Yair and love his unique style. It is going to be really interesting to see how these styles collide. I think this fight will be easy to livebet because by the end of r1 we are going to know the way it is heading.

On the one hand Yair could chew Edgar up if a few of those kicks land. On the other hand Edgar could make Yair look silly throwing wild stuff that isn't close to landing.

Right now I am leaning toward Edgar's tight boxing to edge this one. Yair usually settles down a bit after r1. If this was 5 rounds I would be more confident in Frankie but as it is its a close one to call. I can see a split going either way.

Me too.

Frankie dec +115
Yair dec +345

This is a classic case of a somewhat tough fight to PICK, but a pretty easy fight to BET. (At least with current lines).

 

[mkess101]

Wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Maia gets him down in the first and Jorge survives, people have survived with him down there, the Condit fight has made people think Maias death touch is more than it is.

I see this being a carbon copy of the Rory mac fight

It's not a "death touch", it's just that he's playing chess on the ground while everyone else is playing checkers.

Any decent grappler (and I'd consider Mas a decent grappler anyway) can "survive" Maia on the mat. He doesn't knife through people's guards with brutal gnp that makes them open up. What he does is take an inch at a time every time guys adjust or attempt any sort of offense. And if you do what Condit did and try to get back to your feet, he's a step ahead of you and your back is taken.

So yes, Mas can survive on the mat with Maia. He will essentially have to do what Brown did for 2 rounds and play 100% defense and ONLY be concerned with not getting passed. If you are willing to just give rounds away to Maia you can avoid being subbed. In a 3 round fight just conceding a round is a big deal, and conceding 2 rounds is digging a giant hole.

That said I'm play Mas KO prop as I think he'll have at least a decent chance of doing what Whittaker did to Jacare. Maia is 38, and his standup is zero threat at all.