UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[BigNick100]

Are you not afraid of Werdum getting a sub or Cain getting a KO on a Werdum who seems to be fading? What is the line on that?

I think Cain is going to work him good. Cain will want to stand with him, pressure him on his feet and then do some clinch work /dirty boxing against the fence. Werdum has nice clinch work but Cain will out work hi, tired out werdum and get the distance. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cain try some ground and pound in the 3rd round once Werdum is gassed. You can always hedge a Werdum sub or Werdum ITD at +330, but I'm confident in Cain.

As far as ML bets, I am going to stick to my plan of watching the weigh ins and going from there. If Hendricks looks good then I am on him ML. He is fighting for his job as this point, I think he takes this fight very serious.

I already have a parlay of Neil/Hendricks over 2 1/2, Garcia ML, Means ML and Cain by DEC that I love.

 

[OneWarrior1]

RE: Magny/Hendricks

Ya'll should listen to Mkess about the grappling aspect after he called the Gall fight properly lol.

 

[Oblivian]

I think Cain is going to work him good. Cain will want to stand with him, pressure him on his feet and then do some clinch work /dirty boxing against the fence. Werdum has nice clinch work but Cain will out work hi, tired out werdum and get the distance. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cain try some ground and pound in the 3rd round once Werdum is gassed. You can always hedge a Werdum sub or Werdum ITD at +330, but I'm confident in Cain.

As far as ML bets, I am going to stick to my plan of watching the weigh ins and going from there. If Hendricks looks good then I am on him ML. He is fighting for his job as this point, I think he takes this fight very serious.

I already have a parlay of Neil/Hendricks over 2 1/2, Garcia ML, Means ML and Cain by DEC that I love.

Man, I thought the same in the first Cain/Werdum fight. The more that I look back at it though, Cain's strengths play to Werdum's in the fact that he loves clinching and fighting on the ground. He really had issues with the clinch and I think it was beyond gassing. Going to the ground with Werdum is never fun either. It's one of those fights where it's hard for me to discount how well Werdum the first time.

 

[waiguoren]

Hendricks talking about retirement a lot. Implies that his body hurts a lot after training. Is the consensus that he is a USADA victim?

 

[BigNick100]

Man, I thought the same in the first Cain/Werdum fight. The more that I look back at it though, Cain's strengths play to Werdum's in the fact that he loves clinching and fighting on the ground. He really had issues with the clinch and I think it was beyond gassing. Going to the ground with Werdum is never fun either. It's one of those fights where it's hard for me to discount how well Werdum the first time.

The first fight Cain was coming off a huge layoff and fighting in Mexico. I believe those 2 factors played a big part in the first fight. Cain will be well prepared this time around and also having the experience of fighting Werdum already will help him this fight. Plus factor in how Werdum looked his last two fights, I'm confident in Cain.

 

[Oblivian]

I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Cain come in there and be a work horse, but I'd really kick myself in the ass for betting him after seeing the first fight and hearing he already has surgery scheduled.

 

[Monster Meat]

I know based on lines i'm gonna get a pretty absurd price on this prop, so I might as well just talk about it. But if anyone bets with value in mind like myself, Brazilian Cowboy by decision is going to be very juicy. I might favor that as the number one outcome too. Means can most certainly outstrike him on the feet, but I'm not 100% convinced he can stop Oliveira from getting the clinch and doing some work in there with hugging and takedowns similar to his Moon and Brooks fights

I agree Brazilian cowboy by decision is a play im jumping on.

 

[Monster Meat]

I rewatched it yesterday. Magny shows extremely nice technical grappling with his sweeps and the way he holds top position. It's not like Magny is some giant hulking WW. He's a tall lanky guy who happens to be a good grappler. Kelvin is obviously a blown up WW when he fights at 185 due to his love of food, but he's a normal to big sized WW.

Any size difference between these two is negligible either way. I would say based on this fight the same would be said about skill disparity. I'm not saying it's unreasonable to think Kelvin is SLIGHTLY more skilled, just that saying there's a "massive" skill difference is way off.

I had gastelum in the fight vs magny and I was very impressed with magny. He was dominting early then started to get hit a little bit as gastelum made a late comeback. I thought the scoring was right on and magny won the fight. As far as magny vs Hendricks I can see arguments for both sides which makes sense with this fight around pick em odds now. In my opinion it was a no brainer to take magny at + odds based on his impressive performance vs gastelum and how horrible Hendricks has looked lately.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Idk what to make of Kelvin vs Magny as far as helping with capping. Magny has never manhandled anyone besides in that fight, and Kelvin has never been manhandled besides in that fight.

 

[Ukram]

This guy is a second coming of Brian Camozzi.Thatch sucks big time and has big holes in his game but this guy wont expose him. Seems to be a striker with only one sub win in his record. I think thatch wins this one easily.

Still can't trust thatch to big really, even price has shown against low tier opponents the ability to get a take down, some past grappling and naga matches too which is enough to put a flyer on price

 

[cCrown]

man i'm on alot of overs when it comes to this card. Dillashaw, kim, magny, cruz, cowboy perhaps even cain. I've only made plays on the first two but thinking of using the rest as possible parlay material. Waiting to see the decision lines as well especially those of cowboy and cain.

 

[Oblivian]

Any prop guys with a prediction on what Dillashaw via sub will look like? His back takes and RNC are solid, and I think we may see him try to scramble to the back whenever possible here. I don't think he's scared to stand with Lineker if he controls range, but I would not be shocked at all to see him go into grappling mode more than he has recently.

 

[LEMONZEST]

How in the world do you think that Smolka is championship caliber?

I see borg being the right side here. Smolka relies on scrambles & gives up position often. I see Borg jumping on his back multiple times here.

I won't be surprised if Smolka was champ at some point. I would peg him as a fave over the whole division save MM. I think he should be the fave in this match up as well. I like Borg and he is good so I don't feel the need to fade him in any way. Smolka is faster and more tenacious. I will take Smolka at even money but not interested in paying juice as it will be close.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

3u on Borg +110. I had to bite before the line worsened any further. The more tape I watch the more I think he's a horrible style fight for Smolka.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Any prop guys with a prediction on what Dillashaw via sub will look like? His back takes and RNC are solid, and I think we may see him try to scramble to the back whenever possible here. I don't think he's scared to stand with Lineker if he controls range, but I would not be shocked at all to see him go into grappling mode more than he has recently.

Yeah I dig this line of thinking. If I was in TJ's corner I would be pushing for a wrestling game plan. It is too risky to stand and trade with Lineker. The problem is I think Bang and TJ may be a little too confident to "back down" from the striking game. TJ by sub is a good idea tho.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Initial lean; Smolka will do to Borg what he did to Nguyen

 

[EzFlyer]

Any prop guys with a prediction on what Dillashaw via sub will look like? His back takes and RNC are solid, and I think we may see him try to scramble to the back whenever possible here. I don't think he's scared to stand with Lineker if he controls range, but I would not be shocked at all to see him go into grappling mode more than he has recently.

what makes you say his back take and rnc are solid? he had a couple before the ufc, and he had that neck crank what, 10 fights ago... i don't know, i also don't know if he could/would try to take lineker down, anyway

 

[EzFlyer]

Initial lean; Smolka will do to Borg what he did to Nguyen

that's my feeling, too. borg might win the first with his good td's / scramble when he's fresh, but he slows down in fights. smolka doesn't

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I won't be surprised if Smolka was champ at some point. I would peg him as a fave over the whole division save MM. I think he should be the fave in this match up as well. I like Borg and he is good so I don't feel the need to fade him in any way. Smolka is faster and more tenacious. I will take Smolka at even money but not interested in paying juice as it will be close.

I disagree about Smolka being more tenacious and faster, Borg closes the distance with his hands just as fast if not faster. His wrestling is top notch, he will get ahold of Smolka and slam him.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

that's my feeling, too. borg might win the first with his good td's / scramble when he's fresh, but he slows down in fights. smolka doesn't

He didnt slow down against Ortiz (I thought Borg won this fight actually) or Herrera, he was able to maintain a high work rate despite a wrestling heavy approach