UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Dooze]

I can't remember much of DHKs last 2 fights, has he abandoned the brawler style after Woodley sparked him out? If he still had that it'd be a clear go-to for Tarec but if he's gone back to his grappling style it's a tougher one to call. I don't know if he'll be able to take Tarec down since he's got solid defensive wrestling himself, but could see DHK winning rounds just by keeping him against the cage ala what Story did.

Shoeface at 1.70 seems a great line. Vettori isn't going to sub him which removes Vettori's main threat. Main fear is Shoeface gasses and loses a decision, I still can't believe he lost to Kelly but Kelly is just a giant abnormality when it comes to betting on his fights. I expect Vettori to try his hand grappling here though which is Shoefaces bread and butter. He'll be the bigger man too.

 

[Shoulder]

Nunes is actually black belt in bjj

I just double checked ufc profile, spotted she has won multiple bjj competitions also a Brazilian state bjj champ.

Probably not relevant but in her mma debut she lost via armbar, 8 years ago.....

Ill eventually do some tape watching but atm I reckon nunes keeps this standing and uses her physically strength early on in the clinch and grapple exchanges, am leaning on nunes r1-r3 for a finish, otherwise reckon the safer play is r1-r3 finish.

Not seeing both girls going to championship rounds for now, both got so much on the line.

Totally agree, I'm already on Nunes fairly big, I think she murks Ronda within the first two. We saw how bad Ronda is when she can't get the clinch an Nunes knows the way to beat her is to stay on the outside and box her up.

R1-3 will be unplayable, U1.5 is around 1.40 or so.

 

[Oblivian]

Nunes has been dominated with grappling on a few occasions. It's mainly due to her gassing. I definitely remember Alexis Davis doing it to her, iirc D'Alelio did, and Zingano did after Rd 1. I don't think she's good from her back at all.

 

[Oblivian]

Fair point. This fight is a double edged sword, not much tape to reliably go on for either guy as far as stylistic match up. Just comes down to whether you think Tarec can hold the center and strike or if Kim can get the clinch and work his game

I've been watching Saffeidine for a long time now. With the exception of leg kicks, I really don't like his offense. He just doesn't get much going. DHK getting one takedown would likely take each round. And honestly, if DHK gets wild as hell standing, it probably would sway judges too. Saff hasn't finished anyone since 2010. I'm all over DHK on this one.

 

[SBJJ]

My leans.

Nunes
Dom over
Cain ML/over/Cain Dec
Maybe Hendicks
DHK/over

 

[t6p]

Nunes has been dominated with grappling on a few occasions. It's mainly due to her gassing. I definitely remember Alexis Davis doing it to her, iirc D'Alelio did, and Zingano did after Rd 1. I don't think she's good from her back at all.

IIRC didn't Valentina keep her down and land a good amount of ground and pound in the 3rd round as well?

 

[SBJJ]

Pondering nico, smolka and Lineker

 

[SBJJ]

IIRC didn't Valentina keep her down and land a good amount of ground and pound in the 3rd round as well?

It's all about cardio with her.

 

[Oblivian]

IIRC didn't Valentina keep her down and land a good amount of ground and pound in the 3rd round as well?

Yes. Nunes gas tank needs a lot of work, but even gassed, she shows nothing from her back. With that said, those ground dominations were from holding position without going too aggressive. Ronda will probably chase an armbar throughout.

 

[Oblivian]

Wonder how the line will move in Ronda/Nunes? Really tempted to hit Nunes. What can Ronda do if she can't throw Nunes? Nunes is also a brown belt in both judo and BJJ so it's not like she doesn't already know how to defend from a technical stand point and she seems to be physically strong as well.
Nunes cardio has always been a concern but we dont really know much about Rondas cardio, might be just as bad.

Ronda's cardio really held up against Tate in a high paced fight at 168. I think Nunes would have been completely spent at that point.

 

[t6p]

It's all about cardio with her.

Yes. Nunes gas tank needs a lot of work, but even gassed, she shows nothing from her back. With that said, those ground dominations were from holding position without going too aggressive. Ronda will probably chase an armbar throughout.

From what I've read it seems like the cardio we've seen is the cardio we're always gonna get from Nunes. It sounded like both her and her team were at loss about what causes her to gas out and what to do about it.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Ronda's cardio really held up against Tate in a high paced fight at 168. I think Nunes would have been completely spent at that point.

Yeah good point.

 

[Sham5916910]

Watched all cowboys ufc fights. Watched means magny and will watch rest of means fights tomo. Think im gonna like means here

 

[Oblivian]

Watched all cowboys ufc fights. Watched means magny and will watch rest of means fights tomo. Think im gonna like means here

I absolutely hate having money on Means. His relaxed style and not showing a sense of urgency is just frustrating to watch when you have money on him. I'm leaning his way too, but haven't made a decision.

 

[Sham5916910]

I absolutely hate having money on Means. His relaxed style and not showing a sense of urgency is just frustrating to watch when you have money on him. I'm leaning his way too, but haven't made a decision.

I bet him his last two fights and i dont think i broke a sweat. He also brought it to brown fight before. Can see what you mean by watching the magny fight tho. All cowboy does is hold you against the cage until you tire so he can hit one of his shitty td's. Means is hard to hold down, wont tire and cowboy is terrible off his back. Means showed great defence against magny in r3 when magny had his back. He also nearly hit a ninja choke from one of magny's td attempts. I think cowboy is out gunned standing, has to watch his neck ducking his head for means' legs and cowboy could easily end up on bottom where i think he would be in trouble as he is sloppy as fuck in transition. The days of winning a fight by holding someone against the fence are gone as long as the other guy mounts a decent attack for 30 secs to one min. Cowboy being overvalued imo for beating brooks in a fight he came in was it 7 lbs overweight and brooks broke a rib. I also had brooks two up going into r3. Now hes fighting someone his size who will dish it out. I also think cowboy quit way too early against cerrone gonna be interesting to see what hes like when hes the nail.

 

[iGnP]

Nunes has been dominated with grappling on a few occasions. It's mainly due to her gassing. I definitely remember Alexis Davis doing it to her, iirc D'Alelio did, and Zingano did after Rd 1. I don't think she's good from her back at all.

think Ronda by Sub (+110) is good enough value?

 

[Ukram]

Don't forget Means/Cowboy fight is on the early prelims, so hit and miss for live betting on early prelims fights lately, no idea what ufc is doing someone's been smoking that wacky stick again especially when smolka and pyle on main prelims.

 

[Ukram]

Niko Price

-8-0, 27 years old, 6kos and 1 sub, most wins in r1 against low end scale fighters
-Cape Coral camp (american top team)
-short notice replacement signed for fight 2 weeks ago

Last few YT fights:





Some other footage of him doing some grappling matches, amateur boxing matches and NAGA matches also about on YT.

Short notice, padded record fighter coming in while thatch needs a win to keep his job here
(3 sub losses). Price looked average really, winged punches and haymakers thrown, take downs against the cage where he used his physical strength were one thing of interest. Got backed up by opponents with power though and had to resort to take downs to survive and win the fight.

Thatch should get the win, but he has poor cardio @ 170 pounds and shown he can get taken down and laid on quite easily, even by strikers like siyar. Don't trust him and Niko is unproven and short notice.

thatch straight up, but will have to put a flyer on Price for value, maybe his decision/sub prop line.

 

[Oblivian]

think Ronda by Sub (+110) is good enough value?

I'd just hate to lose that bet if she won by a (T)Ko though. I'm not a big prop chaser though.

 

[iGnP]

I'd just hate to lose that bet if she won by a (T)Ko though. I'm not a big prop chaser though.

At current odds you're on Ronda though? And yeah I kinda agree, terrible odds for a prop even though it's likely to hit if she wins