UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[EzFlyer]

Few info bits on JJ vs KK

for JJ
-JJ is younger @ 29 vs KKs 31
-JJ is 5.6" while KK is 5.3" but have the same reach advantage
-JJ dwarfs her in competitions, world titles, Amateur titles (60+ MT fights)
-JJ was KKs idol when they met on the polish mma scene few years back
-JJ submitted KK by rear naked choke in an amateur fight 4 years ago

for KK
-KK trains an israel based self defense style called Krav maga (judo,boxing,wrestling)
-KK use to be a krav maga trainer before moving to MT and then MMA
-former KSW champ
-Studied sports pedagogy

i believe the height is incorrect.. KK was not undersized vs rose, rose is 5'5 or 5'6, they looked the exact same size



i think JJ will be like 1" taller. so, like the age differnece.. it's irrelevant

the other 3 notes on JJ's side.. totally legit, hehe

 

[EzFlyer]

lines are adjusting right now

rashad is now +205, i think that's worth a bet

 

[LEMONZEST]

Looks like 6 units jj + wb for me. Kk too hittable and has never attempted a td in the ufc id be shocked if she out strikes jj. Wb can be hit which is a concern with woodleys right hand but woodley only wins this fight if he lands that right and knocks wb out in r1 possibly r2. As dangerous as woodley is early i have to fade someone with such a small window of victory especially when you consider wb is 57-0 in kickboxing and only one loss in mma. This man is not used to losing brown only won cos wb gassed and brown is crazy tough. In all those fights wb has never been ko'd either. Woodley also fights in spurts due to his gas tank. He spends way too much time static with his back to the cage a sniper like wb will pick him off all day long.

Yeah im diggin your jj + wb parlay. both fights easy to hedge as well. i will be big on this and hedge with kk dec. and twood r1 (both at great prices)

 

[LEMONZEST]

chookagian likely wins a decision if it's primarily standup

carmouche could finisher her or win a decision if she wrestles successfully (big if in terms of "will she try" and then "can she")

At the current prices i like carmouche. she is tough and can make it competitive enough to play her as a 2 to 1 dog.

Im not playing steep faves in wmma unless they are real dominators like jj

 

[EzFlyer]

At the current prices i like carmouche. she is tough and can make it competitive enough to play her as a 2 to 1 dog.

i'm on her side, not big plays, but i'm happy w/them & the prices i got (bets in bet thread)

 

[Ukram]

Watched KK and JJ last few fights, pretty much similar points to previous comments, both are actually similar in size, height and age so very even.

KK lacks any real power but prefers to fight more loose and use her footwork to cut angles and close the gap, but just like JJ they both like that MT approach in mixing up leg kicks and punches in bunches style.
JJ certainly appears to have more pop to her strikes though but KK does have a nice ratio of combination strikes and does have a chin on her.

Cardio wise it could get interesting since KK does conserve energy at times and then unleashes in bunches, but JJ does similar at times just perhaps a bit more consistent, its still a bit of a question mark how kk does in r4,r5 but with her loose flowing cardio reserving style id imagine good.

JJ is a beast in r4/r5 but otherwise both are usually decision and safety fighters lately (JJ 4 decision in last 6 and KK 5 decisions in last 6) so I like the overs in this fight and fight goes distance, but am picking JJ decision for now, KK decision good hedge though)

 

[Ukram]

Watched natal/tim latest fights, hard to be confident in either guy really. Natal still has more tools to edge this fight (bjj black belt and good subs) and those hard leg kicks from his MT background, he still was able to hang in there against Whittaker also, its when natal can't get the fight to the ground he can struggle and tim has that ncaa div 1 wrestling background so he maybe able to stuff natals take downs and stick to his brawling style, I think natal could edge this to a decision with his illusive style and leg kicks, otherwise prefer the 1.5 over here, maybe the 2.5 and natal decision.

 

[piglord]

other than cerrone and wonderboy, i'm really not liking this card too much for gambling.

ireland/brazil looks potentially awesome the week after.

 

[SBJJ]

other than cerrone and wonderboy, i'm really not liking this card too much for gambling.

ireland/brazil looks potentially awesome the week after.

Gonna be huge on both

But also like MJ

 

[piglord]

Gonna be huge on both

But also like MJ

yeah i'm also on mj - that line is way off. think he can stick and move and avoid the takedowns.

need mj and cerrone for a £800 payout from a £20 stake lol. if mj loses i'm gonna hit cerrone su.

 

[Sham5916910]

Cage warriors on bt for us brits before ufc starts. Should get lines and lb on unibet

 

[Ukram]

Props to mj for stepping up and taking on Khabib the guy no one wishes to face, if mj stuffs one or two take downs and uses that speed, athleticism and footwork he might pull off another upset.

 

[MacPherson911]

is there any conceivable way that Jeremy Stephens beats Frankie?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Anyone else like Vincente Luque as a dog? I feel belal is overrated and somehow limited. He got is ass kicked by jouban and didn't look too good vs Montano. Luque is the better grappler for sure and I think better striker too. Belal is the favorite because of his record 10-1, Luque is 10-5. Luque is much better than his record shows. Thoughts?
@Joseph Budden

I need props. will be eyeing Luque sub, and both sides decision lines. Strictly playing value on this one, hard to get a read who will win.

 

[Joseph Budden]

is there any conceivable way that Jeremy Stephens beats Frankie?

Defends tds, finds ways to corner him and to counter him. I'm on Stephens dec at like +850. Happy with the play, definitely value imo.

 

[Ukram]

Jesus Christ we got these 2 guys back on this card....

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[mkess101]

@Joseph Budden

I was thinking Conor stops Eddie early but after last night I'm now thinking that Conor will do anything to avoid facing Ferg. So maybe Eddie is where the value is at dog odds? Conor throws this one to avoid El Cucoy?

I kid, I kid. Maybe.

 

[mkess101]

Defends tds, finds ways to corner him and to counter him. I'm on Stephens dec at like +850. Happy with the play, definitely value imo.

I have that prop too, a little worse odds. Around +750 I think.

Let's also not act though like Stephens is pillow fisted LOL. He could land one good shot and change the whole fight (in addition to the other things you mentioned). Obviously I favor Frankie like everyone else does but Stephens has paths to victory.

 

[Joseph Budden]

@Joseph Budden

I was thinking Conor stops Eddie early but after last night I'm now thinking that Conor will do anything to avoid facing Ferg. So maybe Eddie is where the value is at dog odds? Conor throws this one to avoid El Cucoy?

I kid, I kid. Maybe.

Conor by KO in under 2 mins, which will be the same as the Eddie fight

I have that prop too, a little worse odds. Around +750 I think.

Let's also not act though like Stephens is pillow fisted LOL. He could land one good shot and change the whole fight (in addition to the other things you mentioned). Obviously I favor Frankie like everyone else does but Stephens has paths to victory.

Stephens doesn't KO people with one shot very often, and I doubt Frankie gives him many chances to plant and commit to his power like that. I think Stephens dec is second most likely outcome to Frankie dec.