UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Sham5916910]

mcgregor alvarez fight of the night +350 YES PLEASE. Is it me or are these odds pretty ridiculous?

On such a stacked card with three five round fights I think that's maybe around right.

 

[cCrown]

On such a stacked card with three five round fights I think that's maybe around right.

Yeah upon revision it's not as sweet as i thought. I looked at mcgregor's record and he only had 2 fights of the night and both were the diaz fights. I for sure thought he got the aldo one and maybe even the mendes fight (i forgot lawler macdonald was on that card, probably should've called that one fight of the century) but he got performance of the night for that fight. The back and forth in a fight is probably a significant determining factor when it comes to these.

Still I don't think a 22% chance is accurate. I'll probably put it at 40 so there is definitely still value there. If this fight goes back and forth just a little bit like say eddie gets rocked and comes back (which he has a tendency to do) and has his own moments I can very easily see it going to them.

I agree with you that the multiple title fights are not helping.

 

[danny23]

Do you guys think Joanna by decision or KO?(if you pick her to win).

 

[Sham5916910]

Do you guys think Joanna by decision or KO?(if you pick her to win).

Decision but i think there's value in JJ KO r4 or r5. KK is very hittable.

 

[weedreference]

Do you guys think Joanna by decision or KO?(if you pick her to win).

I'm playing the over (first time I've ever played an o4.5) at -190, so I'm gonna have to say decision. I don't see how either will work a ground game, nor do I see how KK will finish Joanna on the feet. And since KK has great cardio, I doubt Joanna will be able to either.

 

[Sham5916910]

Just watched Tate Carmouche. Based on that fight am i right in thinking Chook easily wins standing and Carmouche needs to ground her to win?

 

[EzFlyer]

mcgregor alvarez fight of the night +350 YES PLEASE. Is it me or are these odds pretty ridiculous?

euro..?

 

[EzFlyer]

Do you guys think Joanna by decision or KO?(if you pick her to win).

decision is unquestionably more likely

 

[vkram]

Just watched Tate Carmouche. Based on that fight am i right in thinking Chook easily wins standing and Carmouche needs to ground her to win?

Yeah most likely. Chook looked sharp on the feet vs Murphy.

 

[cCrown]

euro..?

yeah

 

[Tebowned]

Shad looking slim.

 

[cCrown]

what do you guys think of michael johnson +600 by decision? I think khabib has a chin on him and if johnson can avoid the takedown (yes big if) i can see it going to a decision in his favour. Johnson wins either by ko or decision. I do not see a submission happening. I just think johnson is going to have a hard time putting khabib away.

 

[Sham5916910]

Looks like 6 units jj + wb for me. Kk too hittable and has never attempted a td in the ufc id be shocked if she out strikes jj. Wb can be hit which is a concern with woodleys right hand but woodley only wins this fight if he lands that right and knocks wb out in r1 possibly r2. As dangerous as woodley is early i have to fade someone with such a small window of victory especially when you consider wb is 57-0 in kickboxing and only one loss in mma. This man is not used to losing brown only won cos wb gassed and brown is crazy tough. In all those fights wb has never been ko'd either. Woodley also fights in spurts due to his gas tank. He spends way too much time static with his back to the cage a sniper like wb will pick him off all day long.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Anyone else like Vincente Luque as a dog? I feel belal is overrated and somehow limited. He got is ass kicked by jouban and didn't look too good vs Montano. Luque is the better grappler for sure and I think better striker too. Belal is the favorite because of his record 10-1, Luque is 10-5. Luque is much better than his record shows. Thoughts?
@Joseph Budden

 

[mkess101]

what do you guys think of michael johnson +600 by decision? I think khabib has a chin on him and if johnson can avoid the takedown (yes big if) i can see it going to a decision in his favour. Johnson wins either by ko or decision. I do not see a submission happening. I just think johnson is going to have a hard time putting khabib away.

There's some value imo. Johnson is sharp and should outstrike Khabib when it's on the feet. I could absolutely see a scenario where Johnson wins one clear round striking, Khabib dominates grappling for a round, and another round is close as Khabib hits a takedown and lands some gnp and Johnson gets the better of the striking for the other half of the round.

I have a bet on this (small) already and will be using it in some little hail mary parlays.

 

[Ukram]

Rose was beating kk before she got into the clinch with her. Those knees and elbows slowed Rose down. You would think muay Thai practitioner o jj's caliber won't have trouble with kk. Is there any evidence that jj can hold her own with forward pressing fighters and in the clinch?

5 time world MT champ and 4 time MT Euro champ in Joannas 60+ MT fights vs KKs 5 MT Amateur fights where she won a MT polish cup, is perhaps the only answer

Considering I'm gonna be experimenting with the strategy of only hitting super value lines

I was curious by your new experimental betting style, ez uses that style also so do many others, I tried to add that into parlay's but for some reason always miss it by 1. My hedge parlay experiment has however been working, I take 1-2 heavy favs and pick a decent live dog, seems to be working more times then not anyhow.

similar timing to Oblivion =P

 

[Joseph Budden]

5 time world MT champ and 4 time MT Euro champ in Joannas 60+ MT fights vs KKs 5 MT Amateur fights where she won a MT polish cup, is perhaps the only answer



I was curious by your new experimental betting style, ez uses that style also so do many others, I tried to add that into parlay's but for some reason always miss it by 1. My hedge parlay experiment has however been working, I take 1-2 heavy favs and pick a decent live dog, seems to be working more times then not anyhow.

Yeah man if last night was any indication, my self analysis was correct and this will bolster my profits. I played it safe and, for the most part, only used half units last night and still had the most profitable event of my betting life.

I hate the motto if its not broken don't fix it. My old strategy was working fine, even if I was kind of at a roadblock with my bankroll for the past few months, but its always good to take a look at yourself and see if there might be room improvement. If you think its there, nothing wrong with experimenting and giving it a go.

But my new strategy is basically just a flip of my old one. I used to do two or three team parlays, single bets on lines better than -150, and round robin my favorite props. Now i'm just spreading a unit across props I like on individual fights (might stop that and just put one unit on one prop, or spread between two at most) and round robin the faves and more juiced lines I like with less stake. This way if one or two legs fall, i'm not down like I would be with parlays as my main play.

 

[Ukram]

Few info bits on JJ vs KK

for JJ
-JJ is younger @ 29 vs KKs 31
-JJ is 5.6" while KK is similar but both have the same reach advantage
-JJ dwarfs her in competitions, world titles, Amateur titles (60+ MT fights)
-JJ was KKs idol when they met on the polish mma scene few years back
-JJ submitted KK by rear naked choke in an amateur fight 4 years ago

for KK
-KK trains an israel based self defense style called Krav maga (judo,boxing,wrestling)
-KK use to be a krav maga trainer before moving to MT and then MMA
-former KSW champ
-Studied sports pedagogy

 

[Sham5916910]

Only watched carmouche tate so far and i think i remember chook's debut fairly well. Im debating chook but wont get round to watching tape until tomo. Anyone think carmouche can grind her out? Going by tate fight carmouche at big disadvantage standing right?

 

[EzFlyer]

Only watched carmouche tate so far and i think i remember chook's debut fairly well. Im debating chook but wont get round to watching tape until tomo. Anyone think carmouche can grind her out? Going by tate fight carmouche at big disadvantage standing right?

chookagian likely wins a decision if it's primarily standup

carmouche could finisher her or win a decision if she wrestles successfully (big if in terms of "will she try" and then "can she")