UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Timurd123]

As a Conor lover, have to say, Alvarez round 4 and 5 at +1675 and +2375 is crazy value. Conor gasses, and if Eddie is down 3 round he will go for broke.

Imo if it goes to 4,5 its because Eddie successfully mixed in his grappling, in which case he will be up on the scorecards

But Connor still gasses and you bet your orangutan ass Eddie is gonna do everything he can to finish Connor, I will be playing both those lines myself, albeit due to different reasons

 

[Timurd123]

Why are you guys on o2.5 Alves/Miller ?

Alves first fight at 155 so he can gas, and Miller is pretty close to the end of his career, Thiago can absolutely catch him imo

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

Why are you guys on o2.5 Alves/Miller ?

Alves first fight at 155 so he can gas, and Miller is pretty close to the end of his career, Thiago can absolutely catch him imo

Who knows what will happen in this fight, Thiago Alves used to be a huge WW, remember how big he was back when he fought, Hughes, Kos, GSP. I honestly believe he was on PED's. If anything I like Miller as a dog here, Thiago always has injury's and has these massive layoffs, I can't bet him as a fav. Too many questions surrounding Alves, Miller is durable too so IDK bout the over.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

I'm considering Carmouche as a dog, line should be a lot closer. I reckon she could out wrestle Chook, don't think she'll get subbed but the layoff is a concern.

 

[piglord]

wonderboy is going to bike and strike for 25 mins. i'm probably going to livebet him after round 1 when woodley has blown his best chance of winning.

 

[Timurd123]

Who knows what will happen in this fight, Thiago Alves used to be a huge WW, remember how big he was back when he fought, Hughes, Kos, GSP. I honestly believe he was on PED's. If anything I like Miller as a dog here, Thiago always has injury's and has these massive layoffs, I can't bet him as a fav. Too many questions surrounding Alves, Miller is durable too so IDK bout the over.

Im talking more about the o2.5 in this fight, I wouldnt bet on Thiago at this point

 

[vkram]

I'm considering Carmouche as a dog, line should be a lot closer. I reckon she could out wrestle Chook, don't think she'll get subbed but the layoff is a concern.

Chook is a pretty good striker from what I remember, think she trains with the NY/NJ stable of fighters.

 

[Sham5916910]

Chook is a pretty good striker from what I remember, think she trains with the NY/NJ stable of fighters.

Yeah she impressed the hell out of me in her debut. Or maybe it was cos she won me a shed load live betting her!

 

[vkram]

Yeah she impressed the hell out of me in her debut. Or maybe it was cos she won me a shed load live betting her!

Yeah I was really impressed too.

Does anyone know why Carmouche has been so inactive? Over a year and half since her last fight.

 

[Brick Top]

Lol at TalkMMA admitting he lied. No one post this fraud's shit anymore please

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

Chook is a pretty good striker from what I remember, think she trains with the NY/NJ stable of fighters.

Yeah she's probably the better striker of the two and she's got good BJJ too. Seems like wrestling is the weakest part of her game and I think Carmouche could probably get her down and hold her down. Yeah she trains all over the NJ area, she's been built up well, her record padded as hell though.

 

[vkram]

Lol at TalkMMA admitting he lied. No one post this fraud's shit anymore please

Don't think he lied, just posted what he heard from an unreliable source. He still gets some decent scoops but doesn't seem to double check his sources. He is basically like FRB.

 

[Brick Top]

Don't think he lied, just posted what he heard from an unreliable source. He still gets some decent scoops but doesn't seem to double check his sources. He is basically like FRB.

For sure check your sources before posting and making yourself look like a retard. Ariel wouldn't do that.

 

[vkram]

For sure check your sources before posting and making yourself look like a retard. Ariel wouldn't do that.

Don't think he claims to be a journalist, just an "industry insider" whatever that means. I'm not expecting him to be fully reliable. Gotta take everything twitter says with a large pinch of salt.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I am feeling more confident in Eddie. Here is my logic: Why would Eddie call this an easy fight? I don't think he is saying this in a joking way or just to create controversy. I think Eddie honestly believes this is a relatively easy fight for him. This leads me to believe that he plans to wrestle.

If Eddie was planning to strike then it wouldn't be an easy fight. Eddie is smart enough to know that choosing to trade with Connor would be at best a coin flip and not easy at all.

On the fence, in the clinch, and offensive wrestling I give the advantage to Eddie. We have seen a general trend with Conor in that he excels when he is attacking but doesn't enjoy being the one trying to defend. I think overall Conor is just weak defensively wether it is wrestling, BJJ, etc. Conor has an offensive mind set and doesn't enjoy being on the back foot.

If Eddie indeed chooses to wrestle then I think it is a clear path to victory and he should be around -200.

Firas goes into a bit more detail regarding short turn around for Conor and some of the cardio issues.

 

[Sham5916910]

Who does firas pick?

 

[t6p]

I am feeling more confident in Eddie. Here is my logic: Why would Eddie call this an easy fight? I don't think he is saying this in a joking way or just to create controversy. I think Eddie honestly believes this is a relatively easy fight for him. This leads me to believe that he plans to wrestle.

If Eddie was planning to strike then it wouldn't be an easy fight. Eddie is smart enough to know that choosing to trade with Connor would be at best a coin flip and not easy at all.

On the fence, in the clinch, and offensive wrestling I give the advantage to Eddie. We have seen a general trend with Conor in that he excels when he is attacking but doesn't enjoy being the one trying to defend. I think overall Conor is just weak defensively wether it is wrestling, BJJ, etc. Conor has an offensive mind set and doesn't enjoy being on the back foot.

If Eddie indeed chooses to wrestle then I think it is a clear path to victory and he should be around -200.

Firas goes into a bit more detail regarding short turn around for Conor and some of the cardio issues.

I don't disagree that Eddie has major advantages in the grappling department. But my issue, and why I favor Conor in this fight, is when has he ever successfully implemented a grappling heavy approach? Sure, he grabbed ahold of Pettis and held on for 3 rounds, but he was outstruck significantly in that fight and arguably lost. Eddie was exhausted at the end of the 3rd and Pettis took very little damage. I also believe that Pettis's style and lack of power in his hands allowed Eddie to be more reckless with his takedown attempts than he'll be able to against Conor, at least for the first couple of rounds. I've seen a number of people saying that Eddie is going to take Conor down and ground and pound him, but looking back at his fights I just haven't been able to find many (any?) examples of him doing this. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

I really love this fight stylistically. It going to be very interesting to see what, if any, improvements Conor has made in his TDD since the Mendes fight.

 

[t6p]

Who does firas pick?

He picks Eddie, but says a Conor KO in the first two rounds is possible.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I don't disagree that Eddie has major advantages in the grappling department. But my issue, and why I favor Conor in this fight, is when has he ever successfully implemented a grappling heavy approach? Sure, he grabbed ahold of Pettis and held on for 3 rounds, but he was outstruck significantly in that fight and arguably lost. Eddie was exhausted at the end of the 3rd and Pettis took very little damage. I also believe that Pettis's style and lack of power in his hands allowed Eddie to be more reckless with his takedown attempts than he'll be able to against Conor, at least for the first couple of rounds. I've seen a number of people saying that Eddie is going to take Conor down and ground and pound him, but looking back at his fights I just haven't been able to find many (any?) examples of him doing this. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

I really love this fight stylistically. It going to be very interesting to see what, if any, improvements Conor has made in his TDD since the Mendes fight.

If they grapple for 3 rounds with Eddie being the aggressor then even if Eddie is tired Conor will be moreso. It doesn't matter how this fight plays out the cardio will favour Eddie.

I kinda disagree with Firas that Conor can only win by KO I think he can win a decision based on what he did with Diaz. However, Eddie has better fight IQ than Diaz and I think he will be more aware of winning rounds.

Eddie's game is more about control like a Phil Davis or Will Brooks. He isn't about dealing massive damage. I do think Eddie can and will secure TD's but he won't finish Conor. I think he will LNP and win rounds.

If Eddie survives r1 I will be looking to LB him pretty big. I think Eddie takes r4 and r5 via fence control.

 

[cCrown]

I am feeling more confident in Eddie. Here is my logic: Why would Eddie call this an easy fight? I don't think he is saying this in a joking way or just to create controversy. I think Eddie honestly believes this is a relatively easy fight for him. This leads me to believe that he plans to wrestle.

If Eddie was planning to strike then it wouldn't be an easy fight. Eddie is smart enough to know that choosing to trade with Connor would be at best a coin flip and not easy at all.

On the fence, in the clinch, and offensive wrestling I give the advantage to Eddie. We have seen a general trend with Conor in that he excels when he is attacking but doesn't enjoy being the one trying to defend. I think overall Conor is just weak defensively wether it is wrestling, BJJ, etc. Conor has an offensive mind set and doesn't enjoy being on the back foot.

If Eddie indeed chooses to wrestle then I think it is a clear path to victory and he should be around -200.

Firas goes into a bit more detail regarding short turn around for Conor and some of the cardio issues.

I disagree with firas about the cardio. Not about the fact that mcgregor did indeed have cardio problems in both the diaz fights and also around a similar timeframe. The thing I disagree with is him saying with a fair amount of confidence that his cardiovascular system will probably look the same in the alvarez fight simply because this was his most recent fight and the quick turnaround.

The only reason I am disagreeing with him is simply because this fight is at lightweight and not at welterweight (I found it odd he didn't mention this) . I've gone back and watched some tape on mcgregor in his cage warrior days when he was fighting at lightweight and he most definitely looked leaner there than he did in both diaz fights.

Mcgregor looked great against holloway for 3 rounds with no signs of fatigue and with a high output as well. I believe firas mentions this also. Of course this is at featherweight.

Point I'm trying to make is that his cardio is a bit of an unkown at lightweight. I just don't think it is justified to make strong claims either way.