UFC 204 - Bisping vs Hendo II - England

[Card]

I will finish Belfort in 1 or 2 rounds. I will dictate the fight

 

[Brick Top]

I disagree, is the best Bisping vs the worst Hendo, probably true. But look his losses, all against TOP fighters, Bisping would have lose against Mousasi, Cormier, Evans, Machida and Belfort. His chin is not the same that's true, 2 losses KO vs Belfort and a early stoppage vs Mousasi. He took a beating from Rua (with TRT I think) and survived against Lombard. Not that bad.

Bisping is a solid fighter and has improved since his first fight but -250? no thanks, neither I wouldn't bet him at -200

Lol sorry but this is just ridiculous. It's not about who he's fought, it's about how he's looked. EXTREMELY slow and predictable, instantly gasses, and his chin is gone. He should have retired years ago. Just because he somehow survived against Lombard (who sucks post-USADA) doesn't mean he has a 33% chance to win this fight.

TRT-less Vitor wouldn't beat Bisping either. Come on.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Wrote up a breakdown of Vitor/Moos

http://cagepages.com/2016/10/05/ufc-204-mousasi-vs-belfort-breakdown/

Don't recommend betting on the fight though.

 

[Brick Top]

Lol sorry but this is just ridiculous. It's not about who he's fought, it's about how he's looked. EXTREMELY slow and predictable, instantly gasses, and his chin is gone. He should have retired years ago. Just because he somehow survived against Lombard (who sucks post-USADA) doesn't mean he has a 33% chance to win this fight.

TRT-less Vitor wouldn't beat Bisping either. Come on.

Also just to add to this, Bisping has only lost to the elite of the elite and most of them were clearly on TRT or roids on the time like Hendo. All of the fighters Bisping has lost to would smash Hendo at this stage of his career.

I just don't understand how you can give Hendo more than a 10% chance to land a H-Bomb which is the only way he can win this fight

 

[TheDawg]

There we go, got the green light from elite expert capper Lou from Gamblou.com

Always appreciate the opinion of a true elite expert capper

#ProfitableSportsGaming.

 

[null]

Also just to add to this, Bisping has only lost to the elite of the elite and most of them were clearly on TRT or roids on the time like Hendo. All of the fighters Bisping has lost to would smash Hendo at this stage of his career.

I just don't understand how you can give Hendo more than a 10% chance to land a H-Bomb which is the only way he can win this fight

Bisping is probably going to win but I'm often suspicious when people come out with such hyperbole or try to explain that a fighter can only win by doing one specific thing. Hendo beat Lombard with an elbow to the side of the head in his last bout, not a right hand punch. Did that fall under a 10% chance?

 

[Brick Top]

There is no way I'd bet Bisping at his current odds. Bisping has always struggled with brawler types. That's why he looked so awful against Hendo in the first fight and why he had trouble with a guy like Wandy. He gets very flinchy against big punchers and backs up with his head in the air. Hendo barely missed the H bomb a few other times before landing it.

I just think if Bisping doesn't finish, he's in danger throughout. If people really think Hendo declined that much, I think the best bet would be to bet ITD. If he's really as bad as you are thinking, Bisping finishing should happen and you also think Hendo's only chance is ITD.

You just can't compare the Bisping and Hendo back then to how they are now. It was 7 years ago! Hendo is about 500x slower and more predictable now at *46* years old and off the TRT, and Bisping is the best he's ever looked.

It's like handicapping Anderson at this stage of his career vs someone like Whittaker and using his fight against Griffin in 2009 as an example of what he'll do in this fight. It makes no sense. A lot changes in 7 years.

Bisping should be -400. Playing Hendo at this price is baffling to me.

 

[Brick Top]

Bisping is probably going to win but I'm often suspicious when people come out with such hyperbole or try to explain that a fighter can only win by doing one specific thing. Hendo beat Lombard with an elbow to the side of the head in his last bout, not a right hand punch. Did that fall under a 10% chance?

This is a completely different fight, Lombard is the polar opposite of Bisping. What happened before that elbow?

He nearly got finished by a guy who's looked awful post-USADA, is clearly too small to be a middleweight and who was gassed. Bisping doesn't gas.

Edit: He was also coming back too quickly off a brutal KO loss where he took like 50 strikes to the back of the head.

 

[Oblivian]

Also just to add to this, Bisping has only lost to the elite of the elite and most of them were clearly on TRT or roids on the time like Hendo. All of the fighters Bisping has lost to would smash Hendo at this stage of his career.

I just don't understand how you can give Hendo more than a 10% chance to land a H-Bomb which is the only way he can win this fight

And the same can be said about Hendo's losses.

 

[Oblivian]

You just can't compare the Bisping and Hendo back then to how they are now. It was 7 years ago! Hendo is about 500x slower and more predictable now at *46* years old and off the TRT, and Bisping is the best he's ever looked.

It's like handicapping Anderson at this stage of his career vs someone like Whittaker and using his fight against Griffin in 2009 as an example of what he'll do in this fight. It makes no sense. A lot changes in 7 years.

Bisping should be -400. Playing Hendo at this price is baffling to me.

This is the same shit people were saying when I talked about how Cole Miller can look absolutely awful in fights prior to Caceres schooling him. "Those fights aren't relevant". Yes, they are, and it shouldn't be shocking to see when someone goes back to old habits.

Bisping has trouble with heavy punchers. That's a fact, it showed big time vs. Wandy and Hendo. The problem is that he often flinches and moves his head back which is bad against guys who wing forward. I guarantee you if you watch Bisping's fights, specifically against Leites, you'll see he still does that when guys push forward on him wining. Arms out, head back, and chin up while almost flinching backwards.

 

[Brick Top]

And the same can be said about Hendo's losses.

TRT-less Vitor would not smash Bisping. The only guy he can smash anymore is TRT-less Hendo.

Machida wouldn't either, and Mousasi would be a competitive fight. Bisping wouldn't get KO'd in a minute.

Again though, it's not about who Hendo has lost to. It's about how he's looked.

 

[TheDawg]

Everyone lost their mind thinking Hendo and Vitor have a decent chance at winning.

 

[Brick Top]

This is the same shit people were saying when I talked about how Cole Miller can look absolutely awful in fights prior to Caceres schooling him. "Those fights aren't relevant". Yes, they are, and it shouldn't be shocking to see when someone goes back to old habits.

Bisping has trouble with heavy punchers. That's a fact, it showed big time vs. Wandy and Hendo. The problem is that he often flinches and moves his head back which is bad against guys who wing forward. I guarantee you if you watch Bisping's fights, specifically against Leites, you'll see he still does that when guys push forward on him wining. Arms out, head back, and chin up while almost flinching backwards.

You absolutely can't use fights from 7+ years ago (against fighters who were juiced to the gills) when the guy we're talking about is now 46, off the juice and slower and more predictable than ever against a guy who has clearly improved.

 

[Brick Top]

Everyone lost their mind thinking Hendo and Vitor have a decent chance at winning.

I can't get my head around it. It's like they just haven't watched their recent fights.

 

[vkram]

Interested to see Entwistle by sub/Entwistle round 1 props. He did get all 3 of his opponents in some bad positions so it may be worth a bet.

 

[TheDawg]

I can't get my head around it. It's like they just haven't watched their recent fights.

I know, both Hendo and Vitor are shells of their former selves and Bisping and Mousasi are arguably in their prime, both should be 5-1 favs.

Hendo gets dropped in every fight now besides the one with Tim the bum Boetsch, All 3 of his KO/TKO losses have come in the last 3 years, different man at 46 without TRT, still has power though so he has a punchers chance but that is it. Bisping only has two KO/TKO losses in his career, both to TRT Dan and TRT Vitor.

Vitor has looked like shit since he got off the TRT, both in his fights and physique. I give him the same chance I give Hendo, he needs a KO to win and Gegard has only been stopped by KO/TKO once in his career and we all know Uriah got lucky and that the stoppage was a little premature. And lol at people saying Gegard's BJJ ain't on Vitors level, did you see the Weidman fight?

The odds are generous here.

 

[null]

I can't get my head around it. It's like they just haven't watched their recent fights.

The plethora of recent upsets by fighters that weren't supposed to have a chance in hell to win over their opponents that were supposed to smash them surely has something to do with it. Everyone who got those wrong conveniently pushes those out of their mind and then convinces themselves that the next supposed squash match couldn't possibly go any other way other than the way they see it.

 

[Joseph Budden]

The plethora of recent upsets by fighters that weren't supposed to have a chance in hell to win over their opponents that were supposed to smash them surely has something to do with it. Everyone who got those wrong conveniently pushes those out of their mind and then convinces themselves that the next supposed squash match couldn't possibly go any other way other than the way they see it.

Count me amongst those who never lets it leave their minds. Along with Noad Lahat getting flying knee'd by Diego fucking Rivas. If I forgot about that one i'd be broke by now

 

[Sham5916910]

Gonna put half a unit on struve + bektic. Struve has looked ok last 3 fights pretty good tdd i cant see how daniel wins this. Struve has solid cardio while daniels is terrible.

 

[Sham5916910]

I know, both Hendo and Vitor are shells of their former selves and Bisping and Mousasi are arguably in their prime, both should be 5-1 favs.

Hendo gets dropped in every fight now besides the one with Tim the bum Boetsch, All 3 of his KO/TKO losses have come in the last 3 years, different man at 46 without TRT, still has power though so he has a punchers chance but that is it. Bisping only has two KO/TKO losses in his career, both to TRT Dan and TRT Vitor.

Vitor has looked like shit since he got off the TRT, both in his fights and physique. I give him the same chance I give Hendo, he needs a KO to win and Gegard has only been stopped by KO/TKO once in his career and we all know Uriah got lucky and that the stoppage was a little premature. And lol at people saying Gegard's BJJ ain't on Vitors level, did you see the Weidman fight?

The odds are generous here.

Just playing devils advocate but bisping has been dropped/hurt in 4 of his last 5 fights too.