UFC 204 - Bisping vs Hendo II - England

[TheDawg]

The plethora of recent upsets by fighters that weren't supposed to have a chance in hell to win over their opponents that were supposed to smash them surely has something to do with it. Everyone who got those wrong conveniently pushes those out of their mind and then convinces themselves that the next supposed squash match couldn't possibly go any other way other than the way they see it.

Santos and Smolka losing doesn't increase Hendo's and Vitor's chance at winning, it's completely irrelevant

 

[quincy k]

Also just to add to this, Bisping has only lost to the elite of the elite and most of them were clearly on TRT or roids on the time like Hendo. All of the fighters Bisping has lost to would smash Hendo at this stage of his career.

I just don't understand how you can give Hendo more than a 10% chance to land a H-Bomb which is the only way he can win this fight

hendos left hook is what had the 223-pound fedor fighting off the backfoot and with his back against the fence.

dan lands that left hook bisping could be kod or close enough to it for henderson to land his right hand

 

[Brick Top]

The plethora of recent upsets by fighters that weren't supposed to have a chance in hell to win over their opponents that were supposed to smash them surely has something to do with it. Everyone who got those wrong conveniently pushes those out of their mind and then convinces themselves that the next supposed squash match couldn't possibly go any other way other than the way they see it.

I mean... Spicely DID have a clear grappling advantage, we just all thought because he looked so bad on tape and because Santos showed good takedown defense vs Elias that it wouldn't matter. And Smolka HAS always put himself in bad positions, and that's why I bet on ITD rather than bet him straight.

That's different though. Those are both fairly young fighters who we haven't seen against certain stylistic match-ups yet.

There's enough data on Hendo and how he's looked in recent fights etc to be able to recognise that -200 on Bisping is fantastic value and all Hendo has is a punchers chance for a round or two at the most, just like Vitor. It's all they've had for years and there's no arguing that.

Santos and Smolka shitting the bed against grapplers doesn't change that and is irrelevant.

 

[quincy k]

hendos left hook koing a prime silva

 

[TheDawg]

Just playing devils advocate but bisping has been dropped/hurt in 4 of his last 5 fights too.

He was never in that much trouble besides the Anderson fight and he only got hit with the knee because he was distracted about his mouth piece. Leites and CB cracked him with some hard shots but he was never really in that much danger of being stopped. I'd pick the last four guys Bisping beat to beat Hendo easily.

The argument for Hendo and Vitor winning is so weak, they have a punchers chance and not a very good one.

 

[Brick Top]

hendos left hook is what had the 223-pound fedor fighting off the backfoot and with his back against the fence.

dan lands that left hook bisping could be kod or close enough to it for henderson to land his right hand

Hendo wrestled Carlos Newton in 1998 maybe he could use that against Bisping in 2016

Seriously though, what he did 5 years ago whilst he was juiced off his tits to a washed up Fedor couldn't be anymore irrelevant in this fight

 

[null]

Santos and Smolka losing doesn't increase Hendo's and Vitor's chance at winning, it's completely irrelevant

It's only irrelevant in the completely obvious sense that one fight outcome cannot change an unrelated future fight outcome through magic. It's not irrelevant as an observation and example of how many bettors are pretty delusional thinking that they can just write off a fighter as having little or no hope of winning in a pretty unpredictable sport.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Stefan Struve is a safer bet than Bisping or Gegard. Thats right, I said it.

At least those guys can land a fight changing strike. What the hell can Danny O do?

People scared of Struve under this misguided belief hes a flake cause hes lost to fighters 100 times better than Danny O

 

[LEMONZEST]

It's only irrelevant in the completely obvious sense that one fight outcome cannot change an unrelated future fight outcome through magic. It's not irrelevant as an observation and example of how many bettors are pretty delusional thinking that they can just write off a fighter as having little or no hope of winning in a pretty unpredictable sport.

Exactly. Seeing the upsets is instructive in the sense that maybe these fights are closer than the odds indicate.

No one is claiming one fight outcome has any bearing on future outcomes...

If this was true we would be "martingdaleing" our way to millions.

 

[Brick Top]

It's only irrelevant in the completely obvious sense that one fight outcome cannot change an unrelated future fight outcome through magic. It's not irrelevant as an observation and example of how many bettors are pretty delusional thinking that they can just write off a fighter as having little or no hope of winning in a pretty unpredictable sport.

I've not said I'm writing him off though. I've just said based on the facts and how both fighters have looked recently, especially Hendo off the juice at 46 years old, Bisping is fantastic value at -200 because he just is.

Do you think Hendo has a 33% chance of winning this fight? I honestly don't think he has a 33% chance of winning against ANYONE in the top 15 of MW.

Heck, TRT-less Vitor was even good value against TRT-less Hendo @ -290 and he's looked TERRIBLE off the juice.

 

[TheDawg]

It's only irrelevant in the completely obvious sense that one fight outcome cannot change an unrelated future fight outcome through magic. It's not irrelevant as an observation and example of how many bettors are pretty delusional thinking that they can just write off a fighter as having little or no hope of winning in a pretty unpredictable sport.

I never give someone no hope at winning and I'll never call someone a lock. I was on Santos and I'd pick Santos in a rematch, he got injured and had a bad night but he still win's that fight 9/10 times IMO. I didn't touch Smolka because morano looked good on TUF, still thought Smolka would win but their was too much risk.

Perhaps both Spicely and Morano were being underrated because there is not a lot of footage/info out their on them and they are both young and improving. I do think Spicely got a lot more lucky than Morano did though.

With Hendo and Vitor it's different, we know a lot more about them and we've watched them for years. They are diminished and on their way out. We also know a lot about Bisping and Mousasi, both are very consistent in their performances and both are very well rounded. You can't say the same about Santos, Smolka and their opponents.

Just cause some big dogs win one week doesn't mean it will happen the next week. There are no patterns and every fight is different. But yes you're right the sport is unpredictable and anything can happen which is why there is no such thing as a lock

 

[LEMONZEST]

Stefan Struve is a safer bet than Bisping or Gegard.

 

[Brick Top]

People are seriously underrating how awful Hendo has been in recent years just because he beat a gassed, undersized and roidless Lombard and Boetsch. And the only reasons they can bring up why are from fights from several years ago.

 

[quincy k]

Hendo wrestled Carlos Newton in 1998 maybe he could use that against Bisping in 2016

Seriously though, what he did 5 years ago whilst he was juiced off his tits to a washed up Fedor couldn't be anymore irrelevant in this fight

why do you think that he was juiced off his tits? it wasnt like he ever was caught with high levels like sonnen or allegedly nate marquadt

he had a tue. travis browne couldve used the tue but neved did so maybe because he didnt think that the limited amounts of testosterone that the tue allowed him would give him that much of an advantage

i think dans gameplan is going to be to fight for ten minutes and ktfo or get ktfo trying which will negate bispings cardio advantage.

if you take cardio out of the equation, and this is hendos gameplan, is bispings striking that much better than dans in a two round fight to warrant a -400?

 

[TheDawg]

Hendo wrestled Carlos Newton in 1998 maybe he could use that against Bisping in 2016

Seriously though, what he did 5 years ago whilst he was juiced off his tits to a washed up Fedor couldn't be anymore irrelevant in this fight

Did you see Vitor blitz Wanderlei in 1998, Mousasi doesn't stand a chance

 

[Brick Top]

Stefan Struve is a safer bet than Bisping or Gegard. Thats right, I said it.

At least those guys can land a fight changing strike. What the hell can Danny O do?

People scared of Struve under this misguided belief hes a flake cause hes lost to fighters 100 times better than Danny O

Safer bets than Struve:

- My sock
- A wet carrot
- A tablecloth
- A used condom
- Jared Rosholt

Fuck betting on Struve as a fav against anybody besides Bigfoot.

 

[Brick Top]

why do you think that he was juiced off his tits? it wasnt like he ever was caught with high levels like sonnen or allegedly nate marquadt

he had a tue. travis browne couldve used the tue but neved did so maybe because he didnt think that the limited amounts of testosterone that the tue allowed him didnt give him that much of an advantage

i think dans gameplan is going to be to fight for ten minutes and ktfo or get ktfo trying which will negate bispings cardio advantage.

if you take cardio out of the equation, and this is hendos gameplan, is bispings striking that much better than dans in a two round fight to warrant a -400?

...or Bisping could just point fight for 7 minutes until Hendo tires like he always does, and then knock him out?

And yeah, I do. Hendo is just too slow and predictable to compete against anyone in the top 15. All he has is a punchers chance, and not a 33% one.

 

[quincy k]

...or Bisping could just point fight for 7 minutes until Hendo tires like he always does, and then knock him out?

And yeah, I do. Hendo is just too slow and predictable to compete against anyone in the top 15. All he has is a punchers chance, and not a 33% one.

if hendo goes ball to the walls for 10 minutes there is not going to be any reason to count points as it wont be going to the cards.

if dan doesnt go for broke then i agree that his chances are slim. he is not going to win a technical fight at this point. he was lucky to beat shogun.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Safer bets than Struve:

- My sock
- A wet carrot
- A tablecloth
- A used condom
- Jared Rosholt

Fuck betting on Struve as a fav against anybody besides Bigfoot.

at -165 I don't see how Sham and I are apparently the only ones who find value in Struve. I thought their was value when he was close to -200. Danny O literally does nothing better than him, hes in on short notice, Struve has had I believe a year now with Blackzilians. If you don't like what you see out of Struve, you can livebet out after round 1. What are the actual chances Danny O KOs him in round one or completely dominates him to a point hes favored after the first?

 

[Oblivian]

TRT-less Vitor would not smash Bisping. The only guy he can smash anymore is TRT-less Hendo.

Machida wouldn't either, and Mousasi would be a competitive fight. Bisping wouldn't get KO'd in a minute.

Again though, it's not about who Hendo has lost to. It's about how he's looked.

Weren't you the same one saying Bisping looked like shit against Leites? Honestly asking.