UFC 200 - DC vs JJ 2 - Vegas

[EzFlyer]

Agree on the nune's discussion, strong r1 starts should with any luck bring those tate lines much more playable playable later on.

Someone mentioned about hunts hand speeds and that pretty much hits the nail in the coffin for brock, accuracy, speed and power is the template on hunts hands, just don't see brock doing well maybe in r1 ko as a hedge otherwise like hunt afterwards.

Ill be live betting both and hammering both hunt/tate perhaps more so after r1, hopefully @ better odds.

I maybe the only one here but I do like kelvin over hendricks, sure hendricks lost to wb last outing but I feel kelvin still has the better overall game coming in, he mixes up submissions within scrambles and has good power in his hands. Hendricks has looked strange since his restaurant closed and him having to reduce weight far more then normal and no more iv, I think we will see a much different hendrick's on that alone so I like kelvin at this point.

^^ you're not the only one on kelvin for the record. (agreed on everything else)

 

[Sham5916910]

Good points, and he probably won the first fight. Horrible matchup might be a stretch tho, I think RA clearly won the 2nd. And although RA has been out for a while, when TJ was fighting Easton Barao and Soto, RA was fighting Caraway and Munhoz. That is a similar level of competition imo. TJ has had 2 fights since RA has been out, winning against a fading Barao and losing to Cruz. TJ was still doing angular footwork and feints in the first fight, although I agree he has improved, RA didn't seemed confused by it in the first fight tho and I think he understands the footwork game. Does it justify TJ being -400? That's pretty steep to me, and It's way easier to talk myself into +320. If we are just talking moneylines. TJ dec might be the best actual play.





True, but are we sure what RA's actual condition is?

This is post usada, but that applies to both guys. And it's not like RA was huge in their first match. Both guys are a little undersized imo, RA was hinting at dropping down a weight class, obv a bad sign. I remember Faber saying something:
Faber: He looks like a pre-pubescent little teenager right now cos Usada came in
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/faber-on-t-j-dillashaw-post-usada.3219847/


TJ has improved I think but most of it was shown against barao. Hard to take so much a away from such a specific stylistic matchup, might be right but might be a him vs barao thing too.

RA has one of the longest weight class streaks 7-0, only behind cruz iirc

Just taking a long look at a big dog, haven't decided either way yet.

I dont agree with this fading Baroa stuff. He was 1-1 with Stephens going into r3 and r3 was close. I think TJ is just that good. Yes he lost to Cruz but that decision could easily have gone to TJ. Yes TJ was using angles and switching stances in their first fight but from Easton onwards his stand up has looked notches above what he showed against RA.

TJ has fought post USADA losing a very contentious split to the best BW there has been. Yes that is complete speculation re RA but Brazilians have struggled the most since USADA's inception. A two year lay off for an almost 34 yr old BW is a big concern for me too.

 

[Sham5916910]

Agree on the nune's discussion, strong r1 starts should with any luck bring those tate lines much more playable playable later on.

Someone mentioned about hunts hand speeds and that pretty much hits the nail in the coffin for brock, accuracy, speed and power is the template on hunts hands, just don't see brock doing well maybe in r1 ko as a hedge otherwise like hunt afterwards.

Ill be live betting both and hammering both hunt/tate perhaps more so after r1, hopefully @ better odds.

I maybe the only one here but I do like kelvin over hendricks, sure hendricks lost to wb last outing but I feel kelvin still has the better overall game coming in, he mixes up submissions within scrambles and has good power in his hands. Hendricks has looked strange since his restaurant closed and him having to reduce weight far more then normal and no more iv, I think we will see a much different hendrick's on that alone so I like kelvin at this point.

Id take Hunt now mate dont see Brock getting out of r1.

 

[kenCs]

My man. You'll probably be the only one to recognize that's him. Dude is so unique in a ratchet, hipster crackhead way. I love it. That new single is awesome

Has a great album in OLD and a great mixtape in XXX. His uniqueness is gonna catapult him into something big if he would feature on more pop records etc but that aint him. Some great songs including Wonderbread, 30, XXX into are constantly in my playlists.

I would of liked to play Jim Miler but at -205, thats a no from me. I might just take the ITD line if thats any good. With my luck recently, betting a Jim sub would result in Gomi KOing him.

 

[edole]

I am very indifferent on the Hendricks/Gastelum discussion.

Hendricks current run



destroyed by Thompson
Handled Brown
Robbed against Lawler
Beat Lawler
Robbed against Georges
Handled Condit

IMO this is a very impressive run. I truly believe he beat Robbie twice and beat GSP.

I think I like him to beat Kelvin.

 

[kenCs]

I dont agree with this fading Baroa stuff. He was 1-1 with Stephens going into r3 and r3 was close. I think TJ is just that good. Yes he lost to Cruz but that decision could easily have gone to TJ. Yes TJ was using angles and switching stances in their first fight but from Easton onwards his stand up has looked notches above what he showed against RA.

TJ has fought post USADA losing a very contentious split to the best BW there has been. Yes that is complete speculation re RA but Brazilians have struggled the most since USADA's inception. A two year lay off for an almost 34 yr old BW is a big concern for me too.

Disagree with the Brazilians sucking post USADA. Everyone has been sucking post USADA, not just the Brazilians.

Id take Hunt now mate dont see Brock getting out of r1.

He is still -175 in most Euro bookies. I think his odds may actually get better towards the fight as causal money comes in. I would put a little on now but im thinking the line improves.

 

[kenCs]

I am very indifferent on the Hendricks/Gastelum discussion.

Hendricks current run

View attachment 110667

destroyed by Thompson
Handled Brown
Robbed against Lawler
Beat Lawler
Robbed against Georges
Handled Condit

IMO this is a very impressive run. I truly believe he beat Robbie twice and beat GSP.

I think I like him to beat Kelvin.

Sticking your head in a fighters crotch for three rounds doesn't result in a win imo for the second Lawler fight. He wasn't robbed. He wrestled Brown to win a decision. I thought he may have beat GSP after watching it live but after a re-watch, GSP won that 3-2 even though his face says otherwise. The first Lawler fight was a close one aswell and ended in a split, so that wasn't a "Beat Lawler" to me. I may be biased as Lawler is my favourite fighter to watch but those points I made, I still stand behind.

 

[Sham5916910]

Disagree with the Brazilians sucking post USADA. Everyone has been sucking post USADA, not just the Brazilians.



He is still -175 in most Euro bookies. I think his odds may actually get better towards the fight as causal money comes in. I would put a little on now but im thinking the line improves.

I know RA is not Novia Uniao but they have fallen apart since USADA.

 

[Sadistics]

I think Hunts line will get dramatically better after weigh-ins. Lesnar will dwarf Hunt, and casuals may assume Hunt is just some fat can to be fed to Brock. I also think he has that McGregor stardom effect where he'll just be blindly bet.

 

[kenCs]

I know RA is not Novia Uniao but they have fallen apart since USADA.

Everyone has. Non Brazilians listed here aswell as Brazilians. We have confirmation bias against the Brazilians but stats show otherwise.

Clint Hester 0-2 post USADA.
Chad Mendes 0-2 post USADA
Erick Silva 0-2 post USADA
Brandon Thatch 0-2 post USADA
Gleison Tibau 0-1 overturned due to being positive for EPO post USADA
Hector Lombard 0-2 post USADA (even though we still suspect)
Rashad Evans 0-2 post USADA
Omari Akhmedov 0-2 post USADA
Chris Weidman 0-1 post USADA (claims to have cut beer to come in lighter)


All these fighters bodies have looked different and haven't performed the same. So fighters who aren't Brazilians have also performed differently and looked different.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

^^ you're not the only one on kelvin for the record. (agreed on everything else)

I am very indifferent on the Hendricks/Gastelum discussion.

Hendricks current run

View attachment 110667

destroyed by Thompson
Handled Brown
Robbed against Lawler
Beat Lawler
Robbed against Georges
Handled Condit

IMO this is a very impressive run. I truly believe he beat Robbie twice and beat GSP.

I think I like him to beat Kelvin.

Agree he beat lawler twice.

Condit would have won a 5 round fight.

I don't think that style of wrestling and grappling will work on gastelum.

I've flip flopped a few times on this one.

Leaning kelvin now for odds and am really anxious to see weigh in and if peanut head Hendricks shows up or if he looks like the beast he once was.

I favor Hendricks wrestling and hand speed

I favor gastelum cardio pace and grappling.

I think Hendricks will have a hard time holding him down for two rounds or doing damage inside the gaurd and gastelum will take over possibly get a late finish

 

[Sham5916910]

I think Hunts line will get dramatically better after weigh-ins. Lesnar will dwarf Hunt, and casuals may assume Hunt is just some fat can to be fed to Brock. I also think he has that McGregor stardom effect where he'll just be blindly bet.

I hope you are wrong as i dont want to add anymore but will if Hunt drops anywhere near +100...

 

[Ukram]

Loving the new search engine and watchlist for Fight Pass. Stacking that list with fights to watch to prepare for Christmas in July

Don't forget with this new fight pass if you are not seeing all the fighters fights, hit the view profile button next to the fighter pic, it brings up all the latest 2016/2015 fights, I believe it was the same or similar bug on the old fight pass where sometimes a search did not fully display the latest fights, bit crappy its not fixed and displayed fully but at least the profile button is easer to access.

I honestly think this is a hard matchup for Mousasi. Santos has LEGIT striking, strong/big, showed good TDD vs Elias (obviously Mousasi is a step up here but still). Santos is measured with his striking too and doesnt overcommit. However, his footwork isnt great so I can see Mousasi shutting him down with his jab but overall I think this is a close fight.

Yup I actually do like santos with his MT background, but moose is great with that jab and should get the better of santos here, id keep an eye out on santos decision line props though.

Id take Hunt now mate dont see Brock getting out of r1.

I think Hunts line will get dramatically better after weigh-ins. Lesnar will dwarf Hunt, and casuals may assume Hunt is just some fat can to be fed to Brock. I also think he has that McGregor stardom effect where he'll just be blindly bet.

Yeah hunts still playable for now but yeah the more brock press arrives we may get some better lines, I also think the props are going to be interesting ie ko, round 1 ends first and last 60 secs etc
Yeah we may see money pour in once brock stands against hunt, wwe fans will go bananas, could be totally wrong and hunt becomes unplayable but its my live betting style

 

[Ukram]

edited post: pic from twitter was uploaded in june 2016, but pic of RA was taken last year so disregard.

 

[Sham5916910]

Pic uploaded on less then 3 weeks ago on Raphael Assuncao



Suffered a broken ankle back in end of 2014 which had trouble healing then went under the knife to fix it, sherdog interview back in jan he mentioned doc has yet to clear it but its due soon so 5-6 months on and he is still wearing that cast ?

Not that i needed it but confidence increase TJ.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Pic uploaded on less then 3 weeks ago on Raphael Assuncao



Suffered a broken ankle back in end of 2014 which had trouble healing then went under the knife to fix it, sherdog interview back in jan he mentioned doc has yet to clear it but its due soon so 5-6 months on and he is still wearing that cast ?

thanks for the heads up. Doesn't look good for him. Maybe he reinjured it and was wearing that to help make sure he didn't keep injuring it? I don't know.I had foot/ankle surgery when I was younger, Doc told me I would be fine to play baseball that season, so 6months. It took me at least 7 or 8 months to really get back close to 100% and that was w/o re aggravating it. I'm assuming it took him longer to recuperate than the dr told him and then maybe he injured it again. Don't know what I'm talking about just guessing but either way not a good look.

 

[Ukram]

Not that i needed it but confidence increase TJ.

should not be tempted to put major br on tj lol

thanks for the heads up. Doesn't look good for him. Maybe he reinjured it and was wearing that to help make sure he didn't keep injuring it? I don't know.I had foot/ankle surgery when I was younger, Doc told me I would be fine to play baseball that season, so 6months. It took me at least 7 or 8 months to really get back close to 100% and that was w/o re aggravating it. I'm assuming it took him longer to recuperate than the dr told him and then maybe he injured it again. Don't know what I'm talking about just guessing but either way not a good look.

yeah must have, I recall jackie chan breaking his foot during his films and the crew simply painted a trainer on the cast and jackie chan still run like a mutha, doubt it helps the current injury exactly.

 

[AffectEffect]

Eric Silva Posted the pic, on the day of the Cruz vs Faber fight. Does anyone know if it was actually taken on Jun 4th?

Here is something RA posted on May 30th, Different hairstyles, looks thinner.



He mentions in an interview that he was supposed originally to fight TJ on may 29th, but TJ was actually the guy who got injured:

"T.J. Dillashaw and myself, we were offered a main event fight which was going to be the May 29 card. It looks like he was hurt then, so that fight didn't happen. But that was the original plan for my return, May 29, T.J. vs. myself. He wasn't ready. Somebody else took the spot."

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/4/1...r-raphael-assuncao-im-not-here-to-play-around

The things I see on his twitter that scare me are: he is opening up a gym, and mentions dropping down a weight class.

 

[AgentSmecker]

does anyone like diego over lauzon?

he should have a huge edge in chin and cardio..... i dont see him getting submitted. he will most likely be the guy moving forward which has gotten him decisions in the past.

didnt lauzon fade against evan dunham?

I'm picking diego. He's never been submitted, only been ko'd once and that was by prime Penn. Ok so he's been on a downward spiral in recent years but he still has heart for days and I think he get's this by his usual means... dubious decision due to his relentless pace and aggression despite getting busted up in the process.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm picking diego. He's never been submitted, only been ko'd once and that was by prime Penn. Ok so he's been on a downward spiral in recent years but he still has heart for days and I think he get's this by his usual means... dubious decision due to his relentless pace and aggression despite getting busted up in the process.

Never been KO'd BJ won on a cut.