Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 14, 2016.
At this point, what exactly do we expect from Cain? Browne has looked very average lately but he's at the least a big, durable HW with power. Plus he has those insane elbows from his sprawl that can finish fights.
Maybe I'm nuts here but I think there's value on Browne itd at +415. Cain at his best or even relatively close is clearly the superior fighter but right now...?
i'm on board
Thought i'd be the only one stabbing Browne. No way can I get behind Cain at his price.
Btw now that we have an official thread, love this card for betting. Plenty of value on the overs for all three title fights, the over for Diego/Lauzon, less value but still like the over on the Kelvin/Johny fight and like Kelvin as a dog, o1.5 for Gomi vs Miller is good for a little money and personally think Gomi has value, Dillashaw for parlay fodder, and LOVE Lauzon dec even at +240, was +270 just a week ago. Hope it doesn't drop too much more by fight week.
Playing Cain at -285 is crazy. Dont do it.
Without the odds I lean as follows:
Frankie (I like Aldo as a dog though)
Brunson (Mousassi is the better fighter and one of my favorite fightes but at -200, nah)
it really is a remarkable card.. have sooo many leans. just can't lay down on all of them w/so many fights still before it in the next month, heh.
LOL bizzaro world so far we all like Browne at his price vs Cain. Funny how fast MMA changes...
Smashed the fight goes distance line at -180. I think this sees the cards 70% of the time or more.
Agreed. I honestly don't get how Lauzon by dec is so good. Think sadly come fight week its no better than +200, i'll prob hit it immediately after the Ottawa event. Only way Lauzon finishes Terminator Sanchez is elbowing his scar tissue lol thats more possible than i'm making it sound, but still love that line.
Browne is pretty durable. I'd rather play Cain by decision than bet on Browne. He's pretty overrated
Actually I don't think even those of us betting him rate him all that highly (I don't anyway). But yes he's durable, agree. And obviously he has some stopping power (well, it's HW so they all do but still LOL). And given that Cain does like to mix in takedowns and Browne has that crushing power with his elbows from the sprawl it may affect the threat of the takedown for Cain. And again, it's HW so it's unpredictable. I'd way rather take a little stab at Browne itd at +415 than lay - odds on Cain's decision line.
if marin can make it out of the first round ill take him all day over super sage.
think cat has value.
dont understand people writing off hendricks. no shame in getting ko by wonder boy.
but other than that imo he should still be champ and has pretty much rag dolled everyone inside the octagon with his wrestling. id say he's got the faster hands and his leg kicks are really sneaky
Im big on Hunt and TJ. Still think Hunt line is crazily good.
Think i like Sanchez decision. As shop worn as he is i think he is less so than Lauzon and if he goes into psycho mode i think he wins this.
Just realised Lauzon only has one decision win that's crazy!
Pretty big cardio advantage for Sanchez, lauzon always fades and Sanchez can go on for days
Diego needs top control to win. He can't steal this one with aggression since Lauzon will return fire, he can't outstrike Joe at range and in the clinch hes gonna get brutalized. Can he really control Joe enough on the mat to take this? I wouldn't bet on it
That one Lauzon dec win maybe why his dec prop looks so good. Stats aside I still like it, this is Terminator Diego Sanchez after all
I don't see why Diego can't win a striking battle especially if he makes this an all out war. I definitely favour Diego's chin too albeit i do expect this to go the distance.
I'd be surprised. Diego is soooo predictable with his attacks. Plus Lauzon is excellent at grabbing Thai clinch and doing damage there when opponents come forward to recklessly like you know Diego will
Diego obviously has a chin, but man, it takes a lot to put Lauzon out. It was crazy that Pettis's head kick did not put him completely KOed. It took a lot with Iaquinta as well. Florian's stoppage was just Lauzon not able to defend himself. I'd be very shocked if Lauzon's chin is a factor here.
I'm loving Diego and the over. Lauzon is one of the worst strikers in the UFC and has performed particularly bad against south paws. Plus I can't recall Diego ever getting outgrappled.
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