UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[EzFlyer]

I've made $ on Corey's past 3-4 fights and I feel the same way as you do. I'm looking to play Shogun in a variety of ways. nothing big, of course. I like the +505 DEC line so far and have some on his no SC at -113

shogun NSC +115 right now, good spot, i like it

also, i'm liking silva DEC over +200

 

[Oblivian]

I have no clue how Anderson is coming in at his odds after how he looked vs. Lawlor.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

shogun NSC +115 right now, good spot, i like it

also, i'm liking silva DEC over +200

People betting on Corey TKO must have bet it down, nice price.

lmao, I literally just played the Silva line 15 min ago since it eclipsed +200

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I've mentioned this before (not sure if this thread), but I do like a play on Corey R3 at +1500. Will probably be my only play on him, unless his ML drops a lot


Oh and my biggest and favorite play for this card so far is Hall no SC around evens AND Vitor R1 +600 or so. Great lines, imo

 

[LEMONZEST]

I've mentioned this before (not sure if this thread), but I do like a play on Corey R3 at +1500. Will probably be my only play on him, unless his ML drops a lot


Oh and my favorite and biggest play for this card so far is Hall no SC around evens AND Vitor R1 +600 or so. Great lines, imo

I don't like props (not sure if I have mentioned that before). I always look at the props you post and scoff ...but man they really do hit a fair bit. Gonna try and get back into betting props after hitting Reza r3.

Great picks Jae keep em coming!

Im also on Hall NSC and Vitor r1.

 

[cs02132]

Why is Moraes so favoured? I know squat about his opponent but he has a solid record and has beaten some tough looking journeymen on the Brazilian circuit. He's only 22 too. Moraes was on the verge of losing his last fight before his unlikely come from behind victory.

I don't know anything about his opponent but Sergio moraes is a high level alliance BJJ black belt. That's no joke..If he can get it to the ground I'm assuming he's going to be better than most people he's facing (until he gets to the top of the division)

I'm assuming his opponent is a local guy since it's so short notice. Idk anything about him though

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I don't like props (not sure if I have mentioned that before). I always look at the props you post and scoff ...but man they really do hit a fair bit. Gonna try and get back into betting props after hitting Reza r3.

Great picks Jae keep em coming!

Im also on Hall NSC and Vitor r1.

Haha, thanks Lemon

Props are literally the main reason I went +18u yesterday. No lie. I hit Sasaki SUB +325 at .75u for +2.44u and Sasaki R2 +950 at .25u for +2.37u. I also had .4u on the Reza R3 prop at +2475 which profited me +8.66u. That's ~13.5u right there from those 3 props.

I obviously lost on some other props and I usually don't hit on them this big every event. However, in the long run they are profitable for me and that's what counts .

 

[EzFlyer]

Haha, thanks Lemon

Props are literally the main reason I went +18u yesterday. No lie. I hit Sasaki SUB +325 at .75u for +2.44u and Sasaki R2 +950 at .25u for +2.37u. I also had .4u on the Reza R3 prop at +2475 which profited me +8.66u. That's ~13.5u right there from those 3 props.

I obviously lost on some other props and I usually don't hit on them this big every event. However, in the long run they are profitable for me.

it's not easy to hit them, tho, just so people don't get the wrong idea!!

not discouraging anyone/anything, save for overbetting props. i've been doing a RR or two every event for the past couple months with some props, and man they're hard to hit. it's infuriating when you do a 7 team RR ... go 2/2 to start.. (sasaki sub & edwards dec) then go 0/5 on the final 5, lol.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I don't know anything about his opponent but Sergio moraes is a high level alliance BJJ black belt. That's no joke..If he can get it to the ground I'm assuming he's going to be better than most people he's facing (until he gets to the top of the division)

I'm assuming his opponent is a local guy since it's so short notice. Idk anything about him though

The only thing I do know about his opponent is that his jits is the best part of his game. So that maybe why Sergio is such a big fave. Other than Maia there is probably no one on the ground better than Sergio at WW

 

[Jae Gibbz]

it's not easy to hit them, tho, just so people don't get the wrong idea!!

not discouraging anyone/anything, save for overbetting props. i've been doing a RR or two every event for the past couple months with some props, and man they're hard to hit. it's infuriating when you do a 7 team RR ... go 2/2 to start.. (sasaki sub & edwards dec) then go 0/5 on the final 5, lol.

Oh, for sure! I'm not trying to influence people in trying to making more $ by playing too many props or anything. I tried to make that clear at the end of my post kinda.

What works for some people doesn't work for others.

 

[chemmy]

I like the Stipe/Werdum over a lot. No love for this here?

I like it a lot too.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Oh, for sure! I'm not trying to influence people in trying to making more $ by playing too many props or anything. I tried to make that clear at the end of my post kinda.

What works for some people doesn't work for others.

I went a few events in a row not hitting any of my props and was frustrated so I went back to more ML plays as bread and butter.

imho there is just so much variance in this sport and it is hard enough to pick winners never mind pick props like Reza r3 or Sasaki by sub in r2. The proof is in the pudding tho and if you're winning you're winning.

I probably just need to adjust the amount I bet on props vs. larger wagers on my more confident ML plays.

anyway BOL gents on this upcoming card as I think we all made out with a profit on this last one.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I don't think there are many heavyweights with that type of style honestly. Stipe's style is interesting because he can move around on his feet a lot if he's comfortable standing but he can always wrestle if prefers it on the ground.

I look at it this way - Stipe has to execute a really solid gameplan, likely for 25 minutes, to get a win here. Werdum can finish standing, finish on the ground, and also land from a distance to get rounds for a decision. Werdum just has so many more ways to win this.

Yeah I think Stipe and JDS are the only ones who can successfully implement that type of strategy on Werdum, which likely makes them the two biggest threats to Werdum, imo. No one wants to be on the mat with Fabricio, and vs Cain he showed getting close to him is the end for anyone with how good his muay thai has become.

Would agree Werdum has more ways to win, but man I can definitely see Stipe enforcing this gameplan for 25 mins. Neither guy winning would be a surprise, and as a fan i'm really excited for this, but i'm the biggest degen on Earth and the questions surrounding the ways this can play out has even scared me off from making a bet. Hoping by fight night Werdum surpasses -200, than I think Stipe is definitely worth a stab.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I went a few events in a row not hitting any of my props and was frustrated so I went back to more ML plays as bread and butter.

imho there is just so much variance in this sport and it is hard enough to pick winners never mind pick props like Reza r3 or Sasaki by sub in r2. The proof is in the pudding tho and if you're winning you're winning.

I probably just need to adjust the amount I bet on props vs. larger wagers on my more confident ML plays.

anyway BOL gents on this upcoming card as I think we all made out with a profit on this last one.

Of course, it'll happen. Variance is everywhere. And btw, the Sasaki SUB play at +325 was more of a SU play, unit wise. I'm not sure if that makes sense. I wanted to play Sasaki, but I didn't exactly like his ML since I thought the vast majority of the time he would win by submission. So when +325 for his SUB opened, I basically treated it as a SU play since I thought it had a lot of value. Basically exactly what I'm doing with Vitor R1 here. But I like this situation even better because of the odds

That could be a solution. Maybe you're not betting to your optimal potential (unit wise). If you have a very strong lean, go for it. Within reason, of course.

Prop plays should also be significantly lower on average compared to a normal ML bet, btw

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Okay, I'm on board with the Werdum over. I'm playing the o2.0 at -131

 

[Jae Gibbz]

So, is anybody else hoping that Werdum and Cain both win their upcoming fights so they have a rematch?

EDIT: For betting purposes, of course

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think I do so well on props that sometimes I overplay them lol.

But I do feel like the best 'bang for your buck' props are the round winners. Some fights you can get a great read on the possibility of it happening. Thats why I was so happy when Jae called out that amazing round 3 price on Reza. I'll play that prop all day vs guys who gas bad like Cabral. Reza's tenacity was icing on the cake for that play.

I also have had some good success playing '3, 4 and 5' in some 5 rounders. Glover vs OSP, TJ vs Barao, Rockhold vs Weidman all come to mind

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I think I do so well on props that sometimes I overplay them lol.

But I do feel like the best 'bang for your buck' props are the round winners. Some fights you can get a great read on the possibility of it happening. Thats why I was so happy when Jae called out that amazing round 3 price on Reza. I'll play that prop all day vs guys who gas bad like Cabral. Reza's tenacity was icing on the cake for that play.

I also have had some good success playing '3, 4 and 5' in some 5 rounders. Glover vs OSP, TJ vs Barao, Rockhold vs Weidman all come to mind

Yeah man, +2475 was crazy against a guy who has shown a few times to gas hard in R3.

On a similar note, the reason I am playing Corey R3 +1500 is because Shogun has lost in R3 a staggering 40% of the time. Legit 4 out of his 10 losses are in R3. Does that mean he will lose in R3 this fight? Not at all. But at +1500? I'm def taking the shot



I have success with those as well

 

[Sham5916910]

Its more a gut feeling re Shogun Corey than anything else but...

Corey was knocked out by Villante and Lawlor nearly stopped him. If they can hurt you Shogun definitely can. Corey lacks power so realistically his most likely route to victory is decision. Even though he won the last two rounds against Lawlor it was far from impressive. If this fight stays standing long enough Shogun takes this IMO. Yes Corey could wrestlefuck but i dont know if i trust him too he reminds me a bit of Kevin Lee in that he thinks his hands are better than they are. I will certainly make a play on Shogun KO @ +500. I will play Corey KO @ +500 too as Lil Nog did rock Shogun but i definitely would not feel confident betting Corey SU or using him as parlay fodder. This is in Brazil too.

 

[lefontes]

Hi guys, im brazilian live and born on Rio de Janeiro... About Luan Chagas: Hes jiu jitsu black belt and karate black belt. Good ground game (not high level, but enough to defend against ground game Moraes IMO), good striking, agressive and good cardio.

Hes training with former and first muay thai coach Anderson Silva, on gym called Noguchi Team. This guy is no joke, but few days for UFC debut could to be big dificult to him.

I will put very small stake on him by decision.

ps. sorry my english!