UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[mkess101]

There's a "Gone in 60 seconds" prop on Ladbrokes here in the UK but even at that Cyborg is only 3/1

If I was in the UK I'd probably hit that small. I think it's only a little better than 50/50 that Smith makes it past a minute. You know Cyborg wants to make a statement and although Leslie is tough she doesn't have the lateral movement to avoid the blitz if Cyborg does what she usually does and comes ahead guns blazing. Pretty good chance she overwhelms Leslie very early.

 

[Slohog]

I know Cyborg is a jiu jitsu black belt if i'm not mistaken? But really surprised by the point discrepancy between her winning itd and by KO. Has she ever even attempted a sub? lol

I'm a untalented whitebelt when it comes to BJJ, but I helped research a fair bit when a friend of mine was going to ADCC and Cyborg was supposed to fight in her division.

I'll can't find my notes but as I remembered she looked really sloppy in most of her fights when it came to grappling (including "pulling mount" against Gina back in the day) and from the fairly limited grappling video I could find she got far in ADCC by just taking people down, standing up and repeat.

Fairly sure she doesn't have a black belt and either way she's probably a fair bit below chicks like Tate and Rousey on the ground. Her wrestling looks really solid thought. She obviously knows what she's doing and I don't think she'd get subbed by anyone except the top 2-3 grapplers in the division, but I don't think she's great either.

 

[Hater Hater]

Blew out his left knee.

Thank you!! That is the kind of injury I was afraid of.

 

[Sham5916910]

Trinaldo Yancy over 1.5 -187 at Coral.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Sounds like the General consensus for Belfort/Souza is Belfort Rd 1 hedged with Souza ITD? But Wouldn't it be more prudent to bet Souza Rd 2 +375 or possibly even Souza Rd 3 +775?

I think Belfort is going to pull off the win and got him at good odds for Rd 1, However I still can't shake him looking completely lost on the ground against Weed-Man. IF Jacare survives first round Vitor, and thats a big IF, I don't think he'll catch Vitor in the first. I think the second round is likely the round he'll do it in. As @EzFlyer mentioned earlier, Vitor has had some "F This" moments in the past and Jacare is definitely a type of an opponent who could give Vitor one of those moments

 

[Card]

Khabib is in Brazil

 

[Sham5916910]

Sounds like the General consensus for Belfort/Souza is Belfort Rd 1 hedged with Souza ITD? But Wouldn't it be more prudent to bet Souza Rd 2 +375 or possibly even Souza Rd 3 +775?

I think Belfort is going to pull off the win and got him at good odds for Rd 1, However I still can't shake him looking completely lost on the ground against Weed-Man. IF Jacare survives first round Vitor, and thats a big IF, I don't think he'll catch Vitor in the first. I think the second round is likely the round he'll do it in. As @EzFlyer mentioned earlier, Vitor has had some "F This" moments in the past and Jacare is definitely a type of an opponent who could give Vitor one of those moments

I'm on Vitor r1 +700 and Vitor r1 KO +900. But I've just hedged with Jacare + Trinaldo/Yancy over 1.5. I think Jacare wins but i couldn't pass up those crazy r1 Vitor odds as that is the only time he wins this fight.

 

[EzFlyer]

Lineker down to -152. Doubling my opener bet. I think lineker is at *least* a 2:1 favorite here. Font isn't quick enough to avoid lineker's power for 15, imo, and I don't think he can take/hold him down, either.

 

[EzFlyer]

I've always seen as medieros as pillow fisted and slow. i think he gets dominated.

Hehe, man, were just not on the same page on the prelims this week!

 

[EndlessCritic]

Having never seen Chagas fight, how the fuck is he such an underdog? Moraes has looked awful in all of his UFC fights, other than the Magny win.

 

[EzFlyer]

Sounds like the General consensus for Belfort/Souza is Belfort Rd 1 hedged with Souza ITD? But Wouldn't it be more prudent to bet Souza Rd 2 +375 or possibly even Souza Rd 3 +775?

I think Belfort is going to pull off the win and got him at good odds for Rd 1, However I still can't shake him looking completely lost on the ground against Weed-Man. IF Jacare survives first round Vitor, and thats a big IF, I don't think he'll catch Vitor in the first. I think the second round is likely the round he'll do it in. As @EzFlyer mentioned earlier, Vitor has had some "F This" moments in the past and Jacare is definitely a type of an opponent who could give Vitor one of those moments

Yea, jacare could win in the first..

 

[Shoulder]

Sounds like the General consensus for Belfort/Souza is Belfort Rd 1 hedged with Souza ITD? But Wouldn't it be more prudent to bet Souza Rd 2 +375 or possibly even Souza Rd 3 +775?

I think Belfort is going to pull off the win and got him at good odds for Rd 1, However I still can't shake him looking completely lost on the ground against Weed-Man. IF Jacare survives first round Vitor, and thats a big IF, I don't think he'll catch Vitor in the first. I think the second round is likely the round he'll do it in. As @EzFlyer mentioned earlier, Vitor has had some "F This" moments in the past and Jacare is definitely a type of an opponent who could give Vitor one of those moments

I'm with the consesus here, I think Vitor have one good flurry in him, but if Jacare gets him to the ground its all over. He was trying to punch his way out of a full mount, so Jacare will choke him out with ease I think.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

I'm on Vitor r1 +700 and Vitor r1 KO +900. But I've just hedged with Jacare + Trinaldo/Yancy over 1.5. I think Jacare wins but i couldn't pass up those crazy r1 Vitor odds as that is the only time he wins this fight.

Vitor R1 ko?!? Euro bookie?

 

[Sham5916910]

Having never seen Chagas fight, how the fuck is he such an underdog? Moraes has looked awful in all of his UFC fights, other than the Magny win.

Not seen Chagas fight but from my memory Moaraes is fade material and Chagas seems decent from fightfinder capping. I am definitely looking to live bet Chagas. You have to be out of your mind to bet Moraes against anyone in the UFC at -400.

 

[Sham5916910]

Vitor R1 ko?!? Euro bookie?

Yeah, 365.

 

[Ukram]

That moment when cyborg said can I eat this..... priceless

With all that tender meat on her plate is she going to hit weight I wonder, leslie was eating fruit and bananas lol

 

[Ukram]

Having never seen Chagas fight, how the fuck is he such an underdog? Moraes has looked awful in all of his UFC fights, other than the Magny win.

Seen both guys last few fights, chagas is pretty decent and sports that 14-1 record but his competition were quite poor and no where ufc calibar ie most of his recent wins guys with 1-1, 3-3,22-20 records. He is also short notice just over a week and ufc debut where as moraes has still beat magny and omari, guys sporting impressive 15-4 and 18-4 records, don't forget moraes is a legit mulitple time bjj world champ. Could be interesting during live betting especially if chagas can keep it standing, maybe a good one for live betting in but I would still say moraes has to be the fav even if he has not looked impressive he still does it all well.

 

[Ukram]

All in all, if Font remains patient and picks his shots from a distance, I can see him frustrating Lineker to a pretty clear cut decision. If its a KO, I am thinking it starts with front kick to the face after being set up with front kicks to the body. Linekar, at 5'3" is a really good height for that.

Also, I think Maia takes down Brown pretty easy and has his way with him. He showed good ground and pound against Gunnar and I think that will wear on Matt to give up a sub if he can't get it directly or the ref will step in.

Yup said same in my b/d earlier, I was high on lineker and still am but after watching fonts last 2 fights I could see his style giving lineker problems, same thoughts on maia its just a matter of time and how well he sets up that take down to bring brown into his world, I still think maia gets the sub also.

 

[Sham5916910]

Seen both guys last few fights, chagas is pretty decent and sports that 14-1 record but his competition were quite poor and no where ufc calibar ie most of his recent wins guys with 1-1, 3-3,22-20 records. He is also short notice just over a week and ufc debut where as moraes has still beat magny and omari, guys sporting impressive 15-4 and 18-4 records, don't forget moraes is a legit mulitple time bjj world champ. Could be interesting during live betting especially if chagas can keep it standing, maybe a good one for live betting in but I would still say moraes has to be the fav even if he has not looked impressive he still does it all well.

Do you think Moraes should be -450? Omari was comfortably beating him too until he landed the unlikeliest of knockout punches. Defo a lb fight for me that i will watch VERY closely.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Jacare said in one of his recent interviews that "his best chance to win is clinching/grappling and on the ground" in other words he is not going to try and strike with Vitor (good idea). This is a confidence increase for me on Jacare.

If they were to trade standing up then Vitor will get the KO most of the time however if Jacare's gameplan is to go to the ground ASAP then I favour him to win by a decent margin.

I still like Vitor r1 tho as a hedge.