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UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

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Rebel_LioN said:
Go indie and start betting the opposite lol. I'm gonna bet Lil Nog by decision +950 for example. In case it hits the scorecards and we get a Brazilian screw job. Or jacare by decision or some other shit. What if Vitor gets his vitamins in this fight and survives a ground onslaught.

I'd rather donate my money than to bet juiced out PROPS.

But then again I've been picking up Ls these past 2 events. Cyborg ITD is -800 lmfao who the fuck is gonna play that. I'll play her decision
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That Lil Nog dec line is actually nice. If he somehow stuffs a few td's, who knows. Good line.

Vitor couldn't stop Weidman from advancing position, kinda hard to imagine he can stop Jacare from doing it. If it hits the mat Vitor is probably in trouble. Maybe, MAYBE if it's early and Vitor is fresh he can survive for a while.

Cyborg? I wish they had a "fight ends in less than 60 seconds" prop. Leslie is gonna get wrecked, and early. Agree Cyborg itd -800 is horrible. Cyborg rd 1 or just fight doesn't start rd 2 are around -160ish. There's the value. Leslie is tough but just ridiculously overmatched here.
 
I know Cyborg is a jiu jitsu black belt if i'm not mistaken? But really surprised by the point discrepancy between her winning itd and by KO. Has she ever even attempted a sub? lol
 
1unit on Renato Moicano +160 is very good value IMO.

Good striking, heavy low kicks, bjj and judo, good cardio, good reach advantage, hometown fighter also. Moicano live, born and training full time in Brazil, accustomed clima with very hot weather this week here Brazil (around +30°). Thukugov last fight are poor against horrible Nover and hes win by split decision losing third round. I think Moicano much better than Nover, hes dangerous on all areas. Plus, brazilian judges, if close fight, brazilian fighter win, with pressure on full stadium 45k peoples, first fight for brazilians beggining winning the night also and maybe possible no test drugs. I like this bet a lot.
 
EzFlyer said:
Liking medeiros at +200. I think the fight could be damned close. Trinaldo knows how to win rounds, but he never really impresses me. Medeiros gonna have length on him, sneaky good subs.. If he sits back too much hell probably lose the decision (in Brazil), but +200 I gotta play him.
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I've always seen as medieros as pillow fisted and slow. i think he gets dominated.
 
lefontes said:
1unit on Renato Moicano +160 is very good value IMO.

Good striking, heavy low kicks, bjj and judo, good cardio, good reach advantage, hometown fighter also. Moicano live, born and training full time in Brazil, accustomed clima with very hot weather this week here Brazil (around +30°). Thukugov last fight are poor against horrible Nover and hes win by split decision losing third round. I think Moicano much better than Nover, hes dangerous on all areas. Plus, brazilian judges, if close fight, brazilian fighter win, with pressure on full stadium 45k peoples, first fight for brazilians beggining winning the night also and maybe possible no test drugs. I like this bet a lot.
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agreed
 
Only other fight of Moicano's I've seen was vs. Pereira in Jungle Fight. He looked awful against a mediocre, smaller opponent. I also don't think Nover is as bad as people ITT have been saying.
 
I'm big on Stipe and Moicano as dogs, I like Font too. Also put a sizeable bet on Thiago Santos, I think those odds could be wider. I like Cummins and Trinaldo for parlays. I usually play a 3-4 parlay of over/under, but I'm not liking the fights for it on this one. Maybe a parlay of Trinaldo/Yancy and Cummins/Nog over 1.5. I like the over on Stipe/Werdum and the unders on Alvez and Santos fights.
 
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I don't think there is, but if there is anybody in here that is wanting to bet on Barberena, his NSC is +565 which I think is better than his ML +475. I think Barb's only chance at winning is by finish (mainly in the 3rd), and I think he is tough enough to possibly last to a losing decision
 
waiguoren said:
Only other fight of Moicano's I've seen was vs. Pereira in Jungle Fight. He looked awful against a mediocre, smaller opponent. I also don't think Nover is as bad as people ITT have been saying.
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Agreed. tho he did look better vs niinimaki. That said, niinimaki fought stupidly.

Id Prolly take nover at evens vs moicano in this spot.
 
I'm on Jacare Not ITD. He's got to respect Vitor's striking and if he gets this fight to the floor, Vitor is a legit black belt as well its not gonna be an easy tap like Camozzi was. Covers possibility of a Vitor KO.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I'm on Jacare Not ITD. He's got to respect Vitor's striking and if he gets this fight to the floor, Vitor is a legit black belt as well its not gonna be an easy tap like Camozzi was. Covers possibility of a Vitor KO.
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I hear ya, but the way vitor pulls what i call a "F THIS!"when he gets tired is kinda second to none.
 
lefontes said:
1unit on Renato Moicano +160 is very good value IMO.

Good striking, heavy low kicks, bjj and judo, good cardio, good reach advantage, hometown fighter also. Moicano live, born and training full time in Brazil, accustomed clima with very hot weather this week here Brazil (around +30°). Thukugov last fight are poor against horrible Nover and hes win by split decision losing third round. I think Moicano much better than Nover, hes dangerous on all areas. Plus, brazilian judges, if close fight, brazilian fighter win, with pressure on full stadium 45k peoples, first fight for brazilians beggining winning the night also and maybe possible no test drugs. I like this bet a lot.
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Just watched tape and I agree with everything you said about Moicano. Tukhugov looks bad at times as he wings punches at air but he has some good power and speed.

I like Moicano's kicking game and he looked to be the better fighter overall. My only doubt is Moicano's injury layoff. I don't know what the injury was but he was out a year and half. Anyway, betting half a unit on Moicano and may add more.
 
How is Moicano underdog here..... Completely head scratcher to me

Tukhugov loads everything to his overhand right and leaves his head wide open for a short straight..... His speed won't help him to avoid getting tagged over and over against a solid MT striker like Moicano. Moicano has a huge size+reach advantage here anyway, don't think Zubaira will be able to hurt him with anything serious

He doesn't have a consistent TD game either

Anyway I'll definitely take Moicano @ +145 and a little on Moicano RD1 @ +700.

I really like it when oddsmakers don't give a shit about the stylistic match up and put up the odds based on whoever has better winning streak lately.
 
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I starting to put in quite a few bets on Werdum - Miocic.

I most def feel it will be really even in the first few rounds and then either Miocic can keep his boxning going to get a dec or he will fade and then Werdum gets a submission. Both Werdum and Miocic seems too smart and caucious to get finished early, so I see value in all of these plays.

Over 2.5 @ 1.78 3U
Werdum Sub R3 @ 15.0 0.5U
Werdum Sub R4 @ 23.0 0.5U
Werdum Sub R5 @ 34.0 0.5U
Miocic Dec @ 5.00 2U
 
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mkess101 said:
That Lil Nog dec line is actually nice. If he somehow stuffs a few td's, who knows. Good line.

Vitor couldn't stop Weidman from advancing position, kinda hard to imagine he can stop Jacare from doing it. If it hits the mat Vitor is probably in trouble. Maybe, MAYBE if it's early and Vitor is fresh he can survive for a while.

Cyborg? I wish they had a "fight ends in less than 60 seconds" prop. Leslie is gonna get wrecked, and early. Agree Cyborg itd -800 is horrible. Cyborg rd 1 or just fight doesn't start rd 2 are around -160ish. There's the value. Leslie is tough but just ridiculously overmatched here.
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There's a "Gone in 60 seconds" prop on Ladbrokes here in the UK but even at that Cyborg is only 3/1
 
mkess101 said:
That Lil Nog dec line is actually nice. If he somehow stuffs a few td's, who knows. Good line.

Vitor couldn't stop Weidman from advancing position, kinda hard to imagine he can stop Jacare from doing it. If it hits the mat Vitor is probably in trouble. Maybe, MAYBE if it's early and Vitor is fresh he can survive for a while.

Cyborg? I wish they had a "fight ends in less than 60 seconds" prop. Leslie is gonna get wrecked, and early. Agree Cyborg itd -800 is horrible. Cyborg rd 1 or just fight doesn't start rd 2 are around -160ish. There's the value. Leslie is tough but just ridiculously overmatched here.
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Unibet have that prop, pays 5x
 
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