TUF 28 Finale RDA vs Usman

[GrantSorenson]

It's not like Colby completely ran through RDA, anyway. It was a competitive 48-47, it wasn't RDA-Pettis. Colby would have lost that fight if he hadn't come out for the fifth round like a house on fire.

RDA was competitive in a lot of the rounds but only really conclusively won the 4th for me.

Usman just isn't as relentless but he has a relatively high fight IQ so maybe he comes in with a lot of pressure. He needs to be all over RDA but he hasn't shown that kind of pressure.

 

[raketmannen]

RDA was competitive in a lot of the rounds but only really conclusively won the 4th for me.

Usman just isn't as relentless but he has a relatively high fight IQ so maybe he comes in with a lot of pressure. He needs to be all over RDA but he hasn't shown that kind of pressure.

Even if he knows his best way to victory is a lot of pressure, the question is if he can keep that kind of pressure for 25 minutes

 

[thewiggo]

Rainey @ 3.75 on PaddyPower

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Usman just isn't as relentless but he has a relatively high fight IQ so maybe he comes in with a lot of pressure.

Only using your wrestling vs dudes that either straight up can't wrestle for shit (Meek), or going for the kill from the get-go on an old bjj dude with porous defence that throws from the hip (Moraes) is not exactly rocket science. But we've seen poor IQ from prospect fighters (Colby vs Alves?), so it's not bad either. Something inbetween.

Even if he knows his best way to victory is a lot of pressure, the question is if he can keep that kind of pressure for 25 minutes

I think he can. He has the physicality to do it. Relatively confident he has the cardio. He is bigger and stronger than RDA, so if he just leans on him in the clinch he can sap his energy and won't need to have a lot of cardio.

He can do a lot of things, has the physical ability if he want to. The question is is he going to do these things and if he do them how well and for how long, and what is he gonna do if he encounters problems on the route?
Intriguing match-up. It will be really disappointing if RDA gets knocked out, that is the only thing we did not considered as a possibility here. Maybe because he just lost twice by KO - one when he was mostly bjj guy and from looney toons uppercut from Jeremy and another from counter punch from Eddie. I think one area where RDA got a lot better is his awareness in the pocket, he is not that open like before when he pressures.

 

[zeckdo]

incredibly limited footage on Chris Gutierrez.



looked good from this... highlight from a month ago.

broken footage from a WSOF fight

 

[zeckdo]

god damn Kevin Aguilar sucks. bad TDD, no jiu jitsu, super hittable, bad cardio. He lost that fight to Joey Gomez, no idea how he got signed. Can't believe he's the favorite.

Rainey isn't anything special but +300 against Tim Means... that's wide.

Predictions for openers of prelims?
Barcelos -250 Gutierrez +180
Roberts -150 Horcher +130
Stewart -130 Shahbazyn +115

No idea for Espino vs Frazier, haven't watched TUF.

 

[Mickhede]

Mannn missed some good openers it looks like. Idk how Caraway beats Munhoz tbh. Hes not fast enough and doesn't have to footwork to keep Munhoz away and if he keeps shooting td's hes gonna get that neck snatched. Gimme like +250 on Caraway and that'll be my in.

Do you get to be highly favored if your name is Shevchenko? Antonina isnt nearly as polished as her "sister". Kim suffers from activity anxiety though. Just really looking to land the same punches over and over and that hair makes her look like shes getting hit harder than she is. Kim probably loses a close decision here.

Benevidez +100 LOL. C'mon I know I've been one saying that Joe B is on a decline but even if hes a tier or two below his prime he would still smoke every dude Perez has fought imo. Hope this line gets better.

Glenn sucks and Aguilar is pretty good. Been following him in LFA for awhile. Hes surprised me a lot. I'm allergic to juice though but I might pay this -175

+240 for fading the dirty bird seems fair. Eh. Probably pass here. I dont know enough about Rainey other than the king of spin did his spin thing.

I completely agree with you regarding Benavidez and Aguilar. Even a past the prime Benavidez is a level above Perez when it comes to both wrestling and striking.

Aguilar has faster hands, more power (knocked out guys cleanly), carries power until later rounds. His last four fights before DWTNCS were all scheduled for five rounds so he can match the cardio of Glenn. I don't think that Glenn will be able to take him down, and even he does he won't establish control. Aguilar creates space and gets up really well. I don't see where Glenn wins this fight.

 

[thewiggo]

I really hope we see Hick Glenns annoying fucking bobblehead bounce off the canvas for the first time.

 

[waiguoren]

I really hope we see Hick Glenns annoying fucking bobblehead bounce off the canvas for the first time.

You seem like a great person.

 

[Sadistics]

Barcelos dropping to 135 for the first time in his career at the age of 33.

Edit: Varying sources on his age, Tapology says 33, other sources say 31

 

[GoldenWolf87]

https://www.fightsports.tv/ponzinibbio-rda-rejected-fight-with-me/

According to Ponzinibbio before the fight night card with Magny in Argentina, he wanted RDA in Argentina as his opponent but RDA rejected that fight with. Thats rather interesting if that is true then seems like RDA is avoiding most of the fights.

And now RDA supporters are expecting RDA to win with a TKO over Usman?

Hope you find this article interesting

 

[Dianabol]

Joe B is gonna hand Alex Perez his 1st UFC loss. People really writing off Joe B for losing a very close fight to Pettis. I think Joe B has looked better but I don't think it was a bad performance or that he's massively declined like some are saying. The striking was very competitive and Pettis is one of the best strikers in the division, much better than Perez.

Perez has only beaten prospects and not even great ones, Torres is a punching bag and Shelton isn't anything special. Joe B has been a perennial top 5 flyweight and only two years ago beat the current champ. Things would be very different if he had gotten the decision over Pettis which he arguably deserved

Perez is also taking this on 3 weeks notice, Perez will probably have a tough weight cut and Joe B still pushes a hell of a pace.

 

[zeckdo]

god damn Kevin Aguilar sucks. bad TDD, no jiu jitsu, super hittable, bad cardio. He lost that fight to Joey Gomez, no idea how he got signed. Can't believe he's the favorite.

Rainey isn't anything special but +300 against Tim Means... that's wide.

Predictions for openers of prelims?
Barcelos -250 Gutierrez +180
Roberts -150 Horcher +130
Stewart -130 Shahbazyn +115

No idea for Espino vs Frazier, haven't watched TUF.

Zeckdo Kalikis

 

[waiguoren]

Not sure if anyone here plays with YouWager. If so, tread very carefully read this recent post:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/fo...r-invented-lies-confiscating-my-77-721-a.html
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/fo...r-invented-lies-confiscating-my-77-721-a.html

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Dianabol,
about that Joe B comment. In flyweight when your athleticism is gone you are pretty much gone too. Here how fast and strong you are is so much important than in any other division. Demetrious was king in not small part because he was lightning fast - FOR THE DIVISION, not just fast, faster than most FlyW, maybe not Dodson.

I know everybody think Pettis is some amazing striker, but reality is he is just a pretty sparring boy. He doesn't put heat in his punches and he does not go for the kill... like ever. It's not so difficult to look somewhat decent vs him. I think Joe looked like shit TBH. Was slow and weak. I don't know, he maybe was a great fighter, number one just behind the great Mouse, but time changes. I don't know about the other fighter, just giving my point of view for Joe.

 

[Dianabol]

Dianabol,
about that Joe B comment. In flyweight when your athleticism is gone you are pretty much gone too. Here how fast and strong you are is so much important than in any other division. Demetrious was king in not small part because he was lightning fast - FOR THE DIVISION, not just fast, faster than most FlyW, maybe not Dodson.

I know everybody think Pettis is some amazing striker, but reality is he is just a pretty sparring boy. He doesn't put heat in his punches and he does not go for the kill... like ever. It's not so difficult to look somewhat decent vs him. I think Joe looked like shit TBH. Was slow and weak. I don't know, he maybe was a great fighter, number one just behind the great Mouse, but time changes. I don't know about the other fighter, just giving my point of view for Joe.

Yeah I understand speed is really important, especially for lighter weight classes. Sure Joe B has slowed down over the years but I don't think he looks like shit. I still think he's a top 10 if not a top 5 flyweight, good enough to beat Perez.

And Pettis is a very sharp striker, faster and more technical than Perez. Happy to take Joe B as an underdog here.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I still think he's a top 10 if not a top 5 flyweight, good enough to beat Perez.

If you like his line bet him. I have no idea of Perez, haven't watch his fights TBH.

So far my thoughts on the fights:
Munhoz is not a good bet on -240, but I saw he trains @ ATT, and I always am little afraid to bet against fighters who train there. It's a lot better for him than Kings. Caraway's path to victory by grinding out a dec. or submission is not too clear here, and I remember he only won one fight with only his striking. I don't know... Somebody break down their striking pls, can Caraway win a striking battle here? I like Caraway on a dog odds, I know he'll fight for my money, but I just can't pull the trigger.

Usman and Dos Anjos we talked about it.

Juan Espino and Justin Frazer. I got Espino all the way here. He is just a lot better everywhere and he is better athlete. Will bet him. The odds flipped, he was the dog. But in my country we don't have odds till one or two days before the event.

Thinking about fading Shevcheko.

I don't honestly know why this guy - Roosevelt Roberts is such a favourite? I know Horcher is not the same man after that horrific accident, but Roberts does not impress me. It's a close fight on a first glance. Why these odds? If somebody knows more, please share.

I don't like Tim Means @ welterweight. Doesn't have the physicality and his game is not nearly enough polished to compensate for that. Have to see this Rainey guy to see what he can do.

 

[Mickhede]

I like Darren Stewart as an underdog. He looks much improved lately and is coming of a win against somebody much better than Edmen, who basically has an inflated can-crusher record.

Edmen is getting thrown to the wolves too early, he should've gotten more time to develop. I guess that happens when Rhonda and Armenian Kavanaugh are your managers....

 

[Mickhede]

If you like his line bet him. I have no idea of Perez, haven't watch his fights TBH.

So far my thoughts on the fights:
Munhoz is not a good bet on -240, but I saw he trains @ ATT, and I always am little afraid to bet against fighters who train there. It's a lot better for him than Kings. Caraway's path to victory by grinding out a dec. or submission is not too clear here, and I remember he only won one fight with only his striking. I don't know... Somebody break down their striking pls, can Caraway win a striking battle here? I like Caraway on a dog odds, I know he'll fight for my money, but I just can't pull the trigger.

Usman and Dos Anjos we talked about it.

Juan Espino and Justin Frazer. I got Espino all the way here. He is just a lot better everywhere and he is better athlete. Will bet him. The odds flipped, he was the dog. But in my country we don't have odds till one or two days before the event.

Thinking about fading Shevcheko.

I don't honestly know why this guy - Roosevelt Roberts is such a favourite? I know Horcher is not the same man after that horrific accident, but Roberts does not impress me. It's a close fight on a first glance. Why these odds? If somebody knows more, please share.

I don't like Tim Means @ welterweight. Doesn't have the physicality and his game is not nearly enough polished to compensate for that. Have to see this Rainey guy to see what he can do.

I'm not that convinced regarding Espino. I think Fraziers low center of gravity is going to give him problems getting the takedown and I don't know if his striking is good enough. I definitely think Frazier has more power.

 

[Dianabol]

If you like his line bet him. I have no idea of Perez, haven't watch his fights TBH.

So far my thoughts on the fights:
Munhoz is not a good bet on -240, but I saw he trains @ ATT, and I always am little afraid to bet against fighters who train there. It's a lot better for him than Kings. Caraway's path to victory by grinding out a dec. or submission is not too clear here, and I remember he only won one fight with only his striking. I don't know... Somebody break down their striking pls, can Caraway win a striking battle here? I like Caraway on a dog odds, I know he'll fight for my money, but I just can't pull the trigger.

Usman and Dos Anjos we talked about it.

Juan Espino and Justin Frazer. I got Espino all the way here. He is just a lot better everywhere and he is better athlete. Will bet him. The odds flipped, he was the dog. But in my country we don't have odds till one or two days before the event.

Thinking about fading Shevcheko.

I don't honestly know why this guy - Roosevelt Roberts is such a favourite? I know Horcher is not the same man after that horrific accident, but Roberts does not impress me. It's a close fight on a first glance. Why these odds? If somebody knows more, please share.

I don't like Tim Means @ welterweight. Doesn't have the physicality and his game is not nearly enough polished to compensate for that. Have to see this Rainey guy to see what he can do.

Yeah I've already started adding to Joe B ML at +115, my only play for this card so far.

Munhoz has been at ATT for his last 4 fights I think, before that he was at Kings MMA and Blackhouse. Not the most athletic fighter but his pressure is hard to match and he's got the best guillotine in the division, I like Munhoz over Caraway. But Caraway can be very hard to look good against, I'll be staying away from betting Munhoz unless I can get like -180

Yeah I also think I like Espino, I haven't missed an episode of TUF this season. Espino is the better technical wrestler and grappler. Justin can wrestle too and he's huge, also more athletic than he looks. Have to favor Espino though, he's done his camp at ATT too.

I think Shevchenko wins easily

Tim Means is overrated and overpriced, I've cashed dogs against him before but I think he wins this time

I don't know much about Roberts but he's too expensive and inexperienced for me to trust against here. He should win though, Horcher is a bottom of the barrel UFC LW

I'm excited to see Edmond's future world champion make his debut on this card, interesting to see that he's actually favored over Stewart. Big step up for the young prospect, Stewart has looked good lately, much improved, he'll be a tough test for Shahbazyan.