Trumpites, please explain how Trump can win

[Cubo de Sangre]

Winning on a technicality. Exactly my point.

Yes, which is kinda silly when you call the basic rules a technicality. The EC isn't some obscure rule trotted out in some trick play. It's the name of the game. Bemoaning it after the fact is just sour grapes.

 

[Hans Gercmiov]

Electoral college.

 

[Hans Gercmiov]

Winning on a technicality. Exactly my point.

That's how it works.

 

[Joe Wong]

Popular vote doesn't matter you absolute moron. Trump didn't try to win the popular vote, he campaigned in places he needed to win. You don't win a game of chess just because you have more pieces than the other person.

What a horrible analogy. Bigly horrible.

 

[KONE]

What a horrible analogy. Bigly horrible.

Feel free to elaborate if your tiny mind can

 

[Fawlty]

My reactions while re-reading this thread lmfao

I'm not sure why you quoted my post for this. I was saying this, essentially:

"the general idea is that he wins via huge republican turnout and a miscalculation about his support among Hispanics. The possibility for him is not good objectively, and maybe "impossible." I'm just trying to come up with a path to the white house via extreme populism. I won't underestimate that kind of thing, it's the sort of effect that can come along once in a generation and shock the world. Intangible."

I got some things wrong there that have nothing to do with liberal tears (turnout was middling and it wasn't clear back then just how strongly uneducated whites supported him, so I was wrong about Hispanics being a major factor), and I cautioned that populism would make this election really unpredictable. For instance we saw accurate national polls but bad state polls. The election was more polarized than predicted.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I got some things wrong there that have nothing to do with liberal tears (turnout was middling and it wasn't clear back then just how strongly uneducated whites supported him, so I was wrong about Hispanics being a major factor), and I cautioned that populism would make this election really unpredictable. For instance we saw accurate national polls but bad state polls. The election was more polarized than predicted.

Turnout was reported as low early, but it actually looks like it was better than 2012 (which was a high-turnout election). And, yeah, national-level polls were actually pretty accurate (much more than in 2012, for example). Personally, I had assumed that a relatively big win in the PV would ensure an EC victory, and that turned out not to be the case for the first time ever (the four previous times the popular vote winner didn't win the election were all razor thin margins--and Adams didn't win either the PV or EV).

 

[Fawlty]

Turnout was reported as low early, but it actually looks like it was better than 2012 (which was a high-turnout election). And, yeah, national-level polls were actually pretty accurate (much more than in 2012, for example). Personally, I had assumed that a relatively big win in the PV would ensure an EC victory, and that turned out not to be the case for the first time ever (the four previous times the popular vote winner didn't win the election were all razor thin margins--and Adams didn't win either the PV or EV).

I heard low turnout at first and then middling. Haven't heard any high estimates yet.

I can understand why people want the EC gone after this result. It's pretty hilarious to think back on all the "EC is corrupt/rigged" talk. I think Trump could have won a PV campaign fwiw, despite losing by 2+ million in an EC campaign. He could have spent a lot of time in NYC and LA and collected a bunch of suckers. It would have been close.

I was talking to a reporter last week who thinks Hillary lost the great lakes states because she didn't engage the rural voters. Doesn't seem right to me but she's an old warhorse who knows everything. I thought the problem was suburban working class.

 

[Devout Pessimist]

I don't think Trump won as much as Hillary and the left lost. A few of us were saying for quite some time that many people are growing tired of the left's smug, self-righteous bullshit which is something they have doubled down on since Trump was elected.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I heard low turnout at first and then middling. Haven't heard any high estimates yet.

I can understand why people want the EC gone after this result. It's pretty hilarious to think back on all the "EC is corrupt/rigged" talk. I think Trump could have won a PV campaign fwiw, despite losing by 2+ million in an EC campaign. He could have spent a lot of time in NYC and LA and collected a bunch of suckers. It would have been close.

I was talking to a reporter last week who thinks Hillary lost the great lakes states because she didn't engage the rural voters. Doesn't seem right to me but she's an old warhorse who knows everything. I thought the problem was suburban working class.

I can't recall where I saw that it was looking like 2016 would exceed 2012 (very recent), but here's from fivethirtyeight in mid-November:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

Approximately 58.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in last week’s presidential election, according to the latest estimates from Michael McDonald, associate professor at the University of Florida, who gathers data at the U.S. Elections Project. That’s down only slightly from 2012, when turnout was 58.6 percent, and well above 2000’s rate of 54.2 percent. Turnout may end up being higher than in any presidential election year between 1972 and 2000.

I actually suspect I might have conceded too early on the black vote, but if I was being a hardass about it, we might not know for a long time, and I still think it's more likely than not that I was off there.

I very much doubt that Trump could have won the PV. Voters don't change their minds as much as decide to vote or not vote, and I think the Comey announcement and media blitz on it (http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/) probably led to Clinton's edge being as low as it could go on election day (note the pattern throughout the election, with it getting about as close as it ended up and Clinton taking a much bigger lead over time).

Your friend could be right, but the thing is, when it's as close as it was (less than 100,000 votes spread out over a few states), almost any conceivable factor changing even a little in Clinton's favor could have swung it.

I don't think Trump won as much as Hillary and the left lost. A few of us were saying for quite some time that many people are growing tired of the left's smug, self-righteous bullshit which is something they have doubled down on since Trump was elected.

If people had a low opinion of the American right before 2015 (and if they questioned the sincerity of "deficit hawks", anti-Keynesians, the Religious Right, or "constitutional conservatives"), they have certainly had evidence to support their views since then.

 

[LucasWithLidOff]

 

[JDragon]

I don't think Trump won as much as Hillary and the left lost. A few of us were saying for quite some time that many people are growing tired of the left's smug, self-righteous bullshit which is something they have doubled down on since Trump was elected.

Much truth in there. The toilet / safe space / gendered language over the top pc stuff really seems to have driven away people who are neither very left or right from the Democrats.

 

[Fawlty]

I don't think Trump won as much as Hillary and the left lost. A few of us were saying for quite some time that many people are growing tired of the left's smug, self-righteous bullshit which is something they have doubled down on since Trump was elected.

The crux of the election was the white working class, particularly in the rust belt. I'm tired of the baseless assertion of "PC has run amok, version #865" acting as confirmation bias.

 

[HereticBD]

The crux of the election was the white working class, particularly in the rust belt. I'm tired of the baseless assertion of "PC has run amok, version #865" acting as confirmation bias.

PC did run amok in the last two years or so, and like it or not, it was a factor. Calling people a bigot for being against the proposed rights of a 45 year old mentally unstable man, wearing a dress and calling himself a woman, to be able to be in the same bathroom as your 6 year-old daughter, nabbed a few extra votes for the right.

Not saying it was the biggest factor, but shit like that nabbed Trump another pocket of votes that wouldn't have been there otherwise.

 

[Fawlty]

Your friend could be right, but the thing is, when it's as close as it was (less than 100,000 votes spread out over a few states), almost any conceivable factor changing even a little in Clinton's favor could have swung it.

When I'm looking at that swing, I don't think of it in terms of being a photo finish, as priors suggest she had a small but decent lead across those states. So rather than any small factor making the difference in a coin flip, to me it's more about the 2-3% pull away from the democrats that happened in each state. Your opinion of the Comey circus being the factor that pushed the line down seems reasonable and I've heard it from several people who know a lot more than I do, but it's not clear whether that impact had more to do with the news itself, or low confidence in Clinton, as she was quite vulnerable. Maybe the conditions that caused her vulnerability are more important.

 

[Fawlty]

PC did run amok in the last two years or so, and like it or not, it was a factor. Calling people a bigot for being against the proposed rights of a 45 year old mentally unstable man, wearing a dress and calling himself a woman, to be able to be in the same bathroom as your 6 year-old daughter, nabbed a few extra votes for the right.

Not saying it was the biggest factor, but shit like that nabbed Trump another pocket of votes that wouldn't have been there otherwise.

Thanks for repeating the assertion that has been made nonstop for the last 20+ years. A republican won an election, so it must be true...

 

[HereticBD]

Thanks for repeating the assertion that has been made nonstop for the last 20+ years. A republican won an election, so it must be true...

Some of your own people even agree that PC Libs were part of the problem.

Stay salty, Fawlty. This thread is all we need to know about how right your assertions usually are.

 

[Fawlty]

Some of your own people even agree that PC Libs were part of the problem.

Stay salty, Fawlty. This thread is all we need to know about how right your assertions usually are.

I know, a lot of liberals are practicing unnecessary self-shame right now. Pretty lame.

 

[HereticBD]

I know, a lot of liberals are practicing unnecessary self-shame right now. Pretty lame.

They're the smart ones, who are trying to separate themselves from the loons like yourself. It's what most Libs should be doing, if they ever want to see their team in the White House again.

 

[Fawlty]

They're the smart ones, who are trying to separate themselves from the loons like yourself. It's what most Libs should be doing, if they ever want to see their team in the White House again.

I doubt you could point to any of my political views as "loony"