Trumpites, please explain how Trump can win

[JDragon]

In order to win the Presidential Election, a GOP candidate must win about 2/3 of the white vote and about 30% of the minority vote in fall.

Mitt Romney: 59% of White vote, 17% of non-White vote.
John McCain: 55% of White vote, 18% of non-White vote.
GWB 2004: 58% of White vote, 26% of non-Whites (would not suffice today due to differences in relative makeup of electorate)
GWB 2000: 55% of White vote, 22% of non-Whites (would not suffice today due to differences in relative makeup of electorate)

The electorate only is 69% White these days. So Trump would need a massive share of the White vote, way above of what any of his predecessors have been able to generate. And he STILL needs that minority vote.

But who is going to vote for him?

Blacks? Voted 93% for Obama in 2012, 95% for Obama in 2008, but also 88% for Kerry in 2004 and 90% for Gore in 2000. The Black vote is gone.

Asians? Insignificant as a group in size and have increasingly voted Democratic.

Hispanics? Voted 44% Bush in 2004, that was the peak. Only 27% Romney, 31% McCain. Will not be enough without the Black vote - and that was BEFORE they were called thieves and rapists. So take this recent poll:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ives-among-hispanics-rise-worst-in-gop-field/

according to which 7 in 10 Hispanics have a "very unfavorable" view of Trump and 8 in 10 at least "unfavorable".

Trump would get dismal voting percentages by Hispanics. Trump is simply not a candidate who is able to win.

The funny thing is, if somehow the GOP voters wake up and realize they fucked up and elect either Cruz (no comment) or Rubio...Trump will likely go independent, grab 5 to 10 percent of the vote and fuck their campaign up.

But back to topic: Please do explain how Trump wins. I just don't see it as a realistic possibility.

 

[oldshadow]

Not a supporter of his.

I see they only way he wins is because Hillary has pissed off so many people that a large number of people don't vote for him just against her and number of Democrat supporters that don't like her just stay home. Along with the independents staying home.

 

[JDragon]

Just found this, maybe also interesting.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Many assume that Hillary Clinton has this in the bag...but drastically underestimate and over look at how repulsive she is to many voters...

She is your politicians politician, duplicitous, dishonest with little integrity.

 

[klnOmega]

Trump will win by getting more votes, in more states.

Votes count as votes. It doesn't matter what color the caster is.

 

[HereticBD]

I don't know. Explain how he's gotten this far.

Seems like he's always turning these projections on their head, so I'm not counting anything out when it comes to Trump.

 

[Fawlty]

By bumping voter turnout to about 62% (without energizing the left too much), getting ~20% of the non-white vote, ~40% of the Hispanic vote (hardest target, but don't underestimate him here), and by scooping up more Independents and Sanders supporters than predicted. I think those numbers should be about right. Tall order, but we haven't seen a populist movement like this in a long time. Nothing is going to be as predictable as it has been in our voting lifetimes.

 

[Madmick]

Many assume that Hillary Clinton has this in the bag...but drastically underestimate and over look at how repulsive she is to many voters...

She is your politicians politician, duplicitous, dishonest with little integrity.

It doesn't matter. Even people like me who feel that way are far, far more disgusted by the identity cult surrounding an imbecile like Trump, and her demographic base derived from identity politics, due to the make-up of the country, is already vastly superior (as JDragon has pointed out). Last night was a disaster for the GOP. It wasn't catastrophic, just yet, but it appears that is where we are headed-- into an insurmountable disaster:
Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump
By Nate Silver


Hillary will be embraced by those who despise her, and she doesn't even need these people to win.

 

[BOWHUNTER]

Trump is the anti-establishment voice. People are seriously sick of the Clintons and the Bush's.

The masses will come out in droves to vote for him. He is a lock as far as Im concerned to be POTUS. Hillary is a total lying cunt, and everyone knows it. It's a vote between more of the same fucking bullshit, or something different, not sure in reality what that difference will be but if iots somehow worse then teh status quo, it's only 4 years of it.

I am in it for the lulz, and teh Tostito's wall lmao.

 

[Thurisaz]

The reason is simple: Hispanics hate Hitlery a lot more than Trump.

 

[ArmorKing]

This isn't a specific Trump problem. It is a general republican one. The GOP has killed their own party by making whites a soon to be minority. What a bunch of fucking idiots!

 

[Madmick]

By bumping voter turnout to about 62% (without energizing the left too much), getting ~20% of the black vote, ~40% of the Hispanic vote (hardest target, but don't underestimate him here), and by scooping up more Independents and Sanders supporters than predicted. I think those numbers should be about right. Tall order, but we haven't seen a populist movement like this in a long time. Nothing is going to be as predictable as it has been in our voting lifetimes.

And Bernie's economic policies would spurn 800% growth in the first year of his Presidency.

That's what we're doing here, right? We're telling fairy tales?

 

[Prime Ang]

He gets more votes in states with more electoral college votes.

Pretty simple honestly, dumb thread.

 

[Madmick]

Trump is the anti-establishment voice. People are seriously sick of the Clintons and the Bush's.

The masses will come out in droves to vote for him. He is a lock as far as Im concerned to be POTUS. Hillary is a total lying cunt, and everyone knows it. It's a vote between more of the same fucking bullshit, or something different, not sure in reality what that difference will be but if iots somehow worse then teh status quo, it's only 4 years of it.

I am in it for the lulz, and teh Tostito's wall lmao.

No, they won't. They already haven't. He can't even win a single majority within the GOP.

He gets more votes in states with more electoral college votes.

Pretty simple honestly, dumb thread.

Then you should simply draw us the board showing the tally, Mr. Russert.

 

[Fawlty]

And Bernie's economic policies would spurn 800% growth in the first year of his Presidency.

That's what we're doing here, right? We're telling fairy tales?

I screwed up my numbers there, but the general idea is that he wins via huge republican turnout and a miscalculation about his support among Hispanics. The possibility for him is not good objectively, and maybe "impossible." I'm just trying to come up with a path to the white house via extreme populism. I won't underestimate that kind of thing, it's the sort of effect that can come along once in a generation and shock the world. Intangible.

 

[ILLogic]

The reason is simple: Hispanics hate Hitlery a lot more than Trump.

Can you read? The OP alludes to this with an article posted, which states...

In current matchups with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, Trump scores worse among Hispanics than any of the three other leading Republican candidates — Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

 

[BOWHUNTER]

No, they won't. They already haven't. He can't even win a single majority within the GOP.

Then you should simply draw us the board showing the tally, Mr. Russert.

People are not voting for Trump en masse? the GOP fucking hate him, both sides hate him because he wont play the game, which is axactly why he is going to crush that post menopausal cunt.

Trump in a fucking landslide

 

[Thurisaz]

Can you read? The OP alludes to this with an article posted, which states...

No.

 

[ripskater]

Hillary should win. But she comes off as a you know what. And she doesn't always hold herself together well. It's hers to lose, but she is the personality type to self destruct and lose it on the campaign trail.

 

[ripskater]

Not a supporter of his.

I see they only way he wins is because Hillary has pissed off so many people that a large number of people don't vote for him just against her and number of Democrat supporters that don't like her just stay home. Along with the independents staying home.

This