Looking at this from just hopefully an objective perspective and I have questions.
- I have always hated the idea of tipping. Yes, Mr. Pink Reservoir Dogs stuff. Tipping passes the buck of paying the employee to the customer instead of the actual business for the most part. Doesn't the idea of no tax on tips just increase this further? Wouldn't it just be more sound to create a decent minimum wage for lower paid employees?
- So what's the goal of not taxing overtime? Is the goal to work already burnt out Americans more? So with an already short-handed labor force you're asking them to work more and you won't get taxed?
- Does the carried interest loophole and tax breaks for sports teams cancel out tax cuts for Made in America projects? If I'm a rich asshole if I have to pay more in capital gains tax or I don't get a tax break with my sports team why would take that compensation I get and invest more. Wouldn't I invest less so I don't have to pay more taxes since I hate paying taxes anyway?
- How do you get Made in America projects if inflation does not lower? Corps are not interested in lower their costs and how can I, for example, open a restaurant when eggs are $6.00 or more when said corp I buy the eggs from has no interest in lowering the cost because they are making insane amounts of money?
- So with all these tax cuts who is paying taxes? How are they going to fund things like Social Security which will be hurt bad by 2035?
1) Yes, it would be more sound. But raising the minimum wage actually puts a burden on employers and there's no energy from this administration to do so.
2) The goal is help people working overtime to keep more of the money they earn working overtime. Not taxing overtime wouldn't increase the amount of overtime people have access to. The unasked question is if the administration plans to go through with policy objectives that reduce the availability of overtime.
3) Remains to be seen. From what I've read, carried interest is about $1.2 billion annually. So, it's not a big number at all. The sports owner issue is even more nebulous, probably driven by Trump's anti-NFL animus from back in the day, lol.
Tax tangent: The primary tax loophole for sports team owners is that the majority of the team's assets are depreciable assets - stadiums, vehicles, training equipment, etc. So the team assets are losing value on paper offsetting taxable revenue.
Additionally, some owners are taking a deduction on player salaries and a deduction on having purchased the player contracts. There's more complexity here but it revolves around owning the contracts as a separate asset from the operating expenses of paying salaries. Essentially, paying Lebron to play basketball is an operating expense and deductible. But Lebron's contract is an asset with depreciable value because Lebron, the athlete, is worth less money every year (because of age, injury risk, etc.). And that too is deductible, lol.
4) This is going to work hand in hand with the tariff threat. If we tariff goods produced in other countries and couple it with a tax break on goods produced here then manufacturers will have an incentive to move their manufacturing here instead. In a perfect world, this increases US worker salaries so that even if the cost of eggs don't go down, we're making enough money to still afford them. In the real world? I don't know if that's true.
5) Well, that's the question isn't it? There is a theory out there that some people on the right believe in a "Starve the beast" approach to ending social safety nets. If you reduce government revenues enough, eventually you have to cut the safety nets because you're literally out of money. We'll see if that's where they're going with this.