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Toyota's US Headquarters Is Moving..

WTF are you talking about? Of course people care. Anyone living in LA ... like myself ... doesn't like to see their city turn into Detroit-the-lesser.

WTF? LA is nothing at all like Detroit. The easiest way to see that is to look at land values. Unemployment in LA is high (8.0% last I saw), but that's a completely separate issue from whether any particular company moves out. Companies moving to other states are not a material factor in unemployment. There's no way to make that case with real numbers.

This state is losing its middle class at a rapid-fire rate, turning into a haven for wealthy elites and their permanent servile underclass. Losing Toyota was bad enough, but it comes on the heels of losing Occidental, which is brutal.

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/...state-will-turn-into-retirement-community.ece

This city is fucked. And that's just a microcosm of California as a whole.

Not really. The state's unemployment rate is higher than average but it's falling faster than average (those two facts are related, of course).

Aren't you supposed to be a progressive of some stripe? Why are you hailing the victory of social segregation and corporate tax avoidance? Texas rising is synonymous with your ideals dying.

What the heck? I said that Toyota leaving is not some kind of problem for the state. Companies come and go (not very much of either) and rise and fall. Texas rising isn't synonymous with any of my ideals dying. And by any reasonable measure, the best-run states are all in the Northeast, anyway, which are run more in line with how I'd do things than CA is.

Btw of course the jobs leave state. One of my best friends was a lawyer for Nissan, and he left to Tennessee with Nissan. Hasn't come back. And these are high-paying high-quality jobs. What's left is increasingly parasitic and dysfunctional. Yeah, people who aren't mobile may stay, but to do so they have to choose among increasingly shitty job options.

Yes, some jobs leave the state and some enter. It's irrational to make some big deal about any individual company leaving or coming. Net job growth for CA was 320,000 in 2013, and GDP growth for the state was 3.5%, which was the fifth highest of any state. Manufacturing jobs increased for the third straight year, and CA's merchandise exports hit a record high in 2013.
 
Jobs don't actually move out of or into states very much. Hard to get more recent data on it, but from 1992 to 2006, an average of 25,000 jobs left CA to other states per year, and 16,000 came to CA from other states. That's in a state with about 19 million jobs. So it's pretty much a non-issue.

?

To be fair, a lot of large corporations have threatened to leave and the state government has bribed them to stay with tax credits. Right now Walgreens is talking about moving to Europe, which would be a huge slap in the face because if the number of employees they have here.
 
To be fair, a lot of large corporations have threatened to leave and the state government has bribed them to stay with tax credits. Right now Walgreens is talking about moving to Europe, which would be a huge slap in the face because if the number of employees they have here.

Illinois has about 6 million jobs, right? How many are employed at the WAG HQ? I know the whole corporation employs 173,000 full-time workers worldwide. I'd be very surprised if WAG actually makes a dent in their employment picture.
 
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WTF? LA is nothing at all like Detroit. The easiest way to see that is to look at land values. Unemployment in LA is high (8.0% last I saw), but that's a completely separate issue from whether any particular company moves out. Companies moving to other states are not a material factor in unemployment. There's no way to make that case with real numbers.



Not really. The state's unemployment rate is higher than average but it's falling faster than average (those two facts are related, of course).



What the heck? I said that Toyota leaving is not some kind of problem for the state. Companies come and go (not very much of either) and rise and fall. Texas rising isn't synonymous with any of my ideals dying. And by any reasonable measure, the best-run states are all in the Northeast, anyway, which are run more in line with how I'd do things than CA is.



Yes, some jobs leave the state and some enter. It's irrational to make some big deal about any individual company leaving or coming. Net job growth for CA was 320,000 in 2013, and GDP growth for the state was 3.5%, which was the fifth highest of any state. Manufacturing jobs increased for the third straight year, and CA's merchandise exports hit a record high in 2013.

Do you have an easy to understand and read source for the highlighted? I want to pass it along to my cali is doomed crowd.
 
WTF? LA is nothing at all like Detroit. The easiest way to see that is to look at land values. Unemployment in LA is high (8.0% last I saw), but that's a completely separate issue from whether any particular company moves out. Companies moving to other states are not a material factor in unemployment. There's no way to make that case with real numbers.

Yes, some jobs leave the state and some enter. It's irrational to make some big deal about any individual company leaving or coming. Net job growth for CA was 320,000 in 2013, and GDP growth for the state was 3.5%, which was the fifth highest of any state. Manufacturing jobs increased for the third straight year, and CA's merchandise exports hit a record high in 2013.

Land values in LA are indeed high where I live, where they have appreciated massively over the last few years (thanks Obama!). Actually, I'll thank myself for recognizing when property values had bottomed, and that appreciation would only accrue to high-end areas.

On the other hand, anybody living outside of the elite sections of LA has gotten fucked over; their relative appreciation has been negligible by comparison. All of you living inland ... are fucked. All hail Das Kapital!

As for job growth, it has been tepid at best, while living costs have continued to increase markedly. Nobody in the middle class comes to California anymore. They all leave for Texas. I'll be the first to agree that California is a great place if you have a ton of money, but otherwise it's pretty awful. Jobs are up, sure, but so is poverty.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/20/southern-california-poverty_n_3957108.html

And why do companies go to Texas? No secret. Tax competition.

"Perry, who made two visits to California to lure employers to his state, said Texas offered Toyota $40 million in incentives from the taxpayer-funded Texas Enterprise Fund. The Republican governor said Toyota is expected to invest $300 million in the new headquarters."

There just aren't any companies here anymore. Even as a lawyer, it's depressing because the kind of big corporate clients I like to work for ... have been steadily vanishing over the past 20 years. For commercial litigators, losing Toyota and Occidental is brutal. In no way does an influx of low-level service jobs make up for it. I used to do a ton of work for Nissan North America, for Allah's sake. No longer. And no replacements; meter maids and non-union construction workers don't hire commercial litigators. If they stay in California, it's nowhere near Los Angeles, it's way out in some taxless segregated suburb somewhere.
 
You are right. Everything is absolutely perfect, an there is no need to even consider improving because it is impossible.


lmao. I love the current trend (in a sarcastic way) of people just end-gaming Jack's arguments. I know it isn't always fair, but I remember even a mod recently said something like "Thank god Jack, I always think we're in trouble economically until I read your posts." That is not a value judgement on Jack being right or wrong, just an observation that people are getting sick of arguing and just putting up strawman-ned conclusion ahead of time.
 
Illinois has about 6 million jobs, right? How many are employed at the WAG HQ? I know the whole corporation employees 173,000 full-time workers worldwide. I'd be very surprised if WAG actually makes a dent in their employment picture.

By itself, no, but it all adds up.

Between 2000 and 2009, Illinois lost a half-million residents.. 2011 census data shows migration at 80,000.. Second largest total in the U.S. (I'd link this but I'm on my phone)

I know you'll say.. Well it doesn't make a difference because it isn't considered a job loss, but it does hurt commerce in a large city like this and considering the cost of living, damages the middle class. Not everyone can just relocate on a whim and people don't always find a similar job in their field that pays as well.
 
Land values in LA are indeed high where I live, where they have appreciated massively over the last few years (thanks Obama!). Actually, I'll thank myself for recognizing when property values had bottomed, and that appreciation would only accrue to high-end areas.

On the other hand, anybody living outside of the elite sections of LA has gotten fucked over; their relative appreciation has been negligible by comparison. All of you living inland ... are fucked. All hail Das Kapital!

I'm not talking about change. I'm talking present values. LA land (all over LA) is so much higher than Detroit's that it should be instantly apparent to anyone who bothers to look that the areas are not in similar economic situations. There are lots of numbers you can use to make that point, but I thought that was the simplest and most obvious.

As for job growth, it has been tepid at best, while living costs have continued to increase markedly. Nobody in the middle class comes to California anymore. They all leave for Texas. I'll be the first to agree that California is a great place if you have a ton of money, but otherwise it's pretty awful. Jobs are up, sure, but so is poverty.

Where are you getting data on migration demographics? I'm not aware of a good source on that. And California is the best place to live of anywhere I've been, and I wouldn't say I have a ton of money.

And why do companies go to Texas? No secret. Tax competition.

But they don't really leave CA for Texas. Or not in material numbers.

There just aren't any companies here anymore. Even as a lawyer, it's depressing because the kind of big corporate clients I like to work for ... have been steadily vanishing over the past 20 years. For commercial litigators, losing Toyota and Occidental is brutal. In no way does an influx of low-level service jobs make up for it.

What do you mean there aren't any companies here? There are more companies here than there are in any other state. Median income in the state is the 14th highest of any state now and it was 11th in 2006 (so I'm not seeing evidence that there has been a lot of good-paying jobs leaving and being replaced by low-level ones).
 
What always strikes me is the mixture of Pollyanna ideals with economic laments. Jack bitches about social inequality while fervently applauding its most efficient causes. Here he is cheerleading corporate tax avoidance/socioeconomic segregation, and arguing it's no big deal because look at the broader economic context. It's as though he is reading from a Koch brothers script ... except that tax rates should be higher and social services greater.

Unless you are a corporation of course, in which case tax rates should theoretically be higher, but it's still okay if the corporation moves some place where tax rates are lower because, of something.
 
lmao. I love the current trend (in a sarcastic way) of people just end-gaming Jack's arguments. I know it isn't always fair, but I remember even a mod recently said something like "Thank god Jack, I always think we're in trouble economically until I read your posts." That is not a value judgement on Jack being right or wrong, just an observation that people are getting sick of arguing and just putting up strawman-ned conclusion ahead of time.

It's not even end gaming. It's just a bizarre reaction. I'm guessing that the poster is coming from a place of irrational and deeply held pessimism, seeing a refutation, and just responding as if I was arguing with his emotion rather than his positions.

By itself, no, but it all adds up.

Between 2000 and 2009, Illinois lost a half-million residents.. 2011 census data shows migration at 80,000.. Second largest total in the U.S. (I'd link this but I'm on my phone)

I know you'll say.. Well it doesn't make a difference because it isn't considered a job loss, but it does hurt commerce in a large city like this and considering the cost of living, damages the middle class. Not everyone can just relocate on a whim and people don't always find a similar job in their field that pays as well.

Well, look, I'm not saying it doesn't suck to lose your job (or have to move), but that is capitalism. Companies fail or move and other ones come or are created. If someone has a problem with that, they really have a problem with capitalism.

Further, I'm not sure if I'm somehow miscommunicating something, but I'm not saying that unemployment is no problem (it's a problem all over the nation, and a worse-than-average problem in CA); I'm saying that jobs moving is not a driver of high unemployment in CA or anywhere else. It's a huge economy. Lots of things happen in it.
 
What always strikes me is the mixture of Pollyanna ideals with economic laments. Jack bitches about social inequality while fervently applauding its most efficient causes. Here he is cheerleading corporate tax avoidance/socioeconomic segregation, and arguing it's no big deal because look at the broader economic context. It's as though he is reading from a Koch brothers script ... except that tax rates should be higher and social services greater.

Well, this is ridiculous and not based on anything I've actually said (which is why it's a general summary of Jack instead of a response to a post of Jack's).

Can anyone point out where I'm cheerleading corporate tax avoidance/socioeconomic segregation? I'm pretty sure that's not in any of my posts.
 
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I'm talking specifically about Los Angeles Jack. As to whether California more generally has more "companies" I don't know, but large corporate companies don't move into LA city, and haven't for a long time -- they move out.

As to the middle class, personal anecdote, over the years about a third of the guys in my BJJ school have either left for Texas or talked about it. Including my instructor, who left three months ago for Dallas, closing the school no less. This is just anecdotal. But I have seen it over and over again, most prevalently in the white middle class and the Latino underclass. It is basically impossible to live here on a middle-class salary. So who stays in their place? Rich people and their servants.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/trulia/...-leaving-california-for-texas-but-people-are/

"The rich aren’t leaving California, but the poor and the middle class are."

Again, why you are seemingly okay with and applauding the phenomenon is the peculiar part. Texas and its rise to increasing national dominance is not a neutral phenomenon with no import for the American economy and society. To watch this happen, as a long-time California native, is no fun, regardless of how well the wealthiest classes are doing. I would imagine you'd sympathize, rather than citing to the website for California state's business department (Pollyanna much?) and implying it's no problem. To put up the recent Economist cover photo:

California-vs-Texas.jpg
 
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I'm talking specifically about Los Angeles Jack. As to whether California more generally has more "companies" I don't know, but large corporate companies don't move into LA city, and haven't for a long time -- they move out.

As to the middle class, personal anecdote, over the years about a third of the guys in my BJJ school have either left for Texas or talked about it. Including my instructor, who left three months ago for Dallas, closing the school no less. This is just anecdotal. But I have seen it over and over again, most prevalently in the white middle class and the Latino underclass. It is basically impossible to live here on a middle-class salary. So who stays in their place? Rich people and their servants.

I guess the problem we're having is that the data I see when I look this stuff up don't match your personal observations. I'm willing to grant that there may be something I'm missing (and I'm open to reading it--I don't have a lot of LA-specific stuff at my fingertips). Are you willing to acknowledge that your personal experiences may not be typical? I know it's a hard step for anyone.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/trulia/2...ut-people-are/

"The rich aren’t leaving California, but the poor and the middle class are."

This piece cites the same study that I did earlier, demonstrating that jobs moving out are not an issue for the economy. As for the observation that when housing is more expensive in CA, more people move out than move in, and that the gap narrows when the gap in land values changes, I find it utterly shocking. Utterly. How does it tie into the general point here? Let me restate my position on this thread:

1. Toyota leaving CA will have no noticeable impact on the state's economy
2. Toyota leaving CA is not part of a trend that has had a noticeable impact on the state's economy.
3. Job growth has actually been strong in CA the past couple of years, though part of that is due to a catch-up effect, as the state was hit very hard by the GFC and still has high unemployment relative to the rest of the country.

Again, why you are seemingly okay with and applauding the phenomenon is the peculiar part. Texas and its rise to increasing national dominance is not a neutral phenomenon with no import for the American economy and society.

I don't really see that happening in reality. I recognize that there is political motivation to claim that, but I don't believe that the numbers support it.

To watch this happen, as a long-time California native, is no fun, regardless of how well the wealthiest classes are doing. I would imagine you'd sympathize, rather than citing to the website for California state's business department (Pollyanna much?) and implying it's no problem. To put up the recent Economist cover photo:

Are you suggesting that the state's business department is making up its stats? I think that's IDL territory. But if you have stats from a different source showing different numbers, where are they?

I'm not a long-time California native, but what am I supposed to sympathize with? Fear that right-wing propaganda about Texas is right? That they're taking our jerbs?
 
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Sure my personal experiences might not be reflective of reality. But when they are consistent with an oft-reported trend of California's middle class being hammered and inequality rising, as well as living expenses become impossible for those who aren't rich, it becomes harder to take a Pollyanna attitude. My grandparents and parents were able to achieve success in California that would be laughable -- simply laughable -- if they tried to come here nowadays. If you hadn't watched the California Dream get systematically eradicated, decade by decade, it might not be so sad.

I'm not sure about the validity -- one way or the other -- of your general points relating to California's economy more broadly. You'd have to define what it means to have "no effect." By itself, Toyota's move is a loss of 3,000 direct high-quality jobs and many dependent jobs, a loss felt very keenly I assure you in South Los Angeles. Is it made up in some general sense by jobs in some random California suburb I've never heard of? And what is the comparison; are the jobs equal? I don't know, you'd have to have some sort of very detailed analysis that includes demographics, income, costs of living, taxes, etc. to get some sort of realistic picture of what's going on and argue why somebody somewhere else is getting the difference.

My point here is that (a) it's not just a random event to lose Toyota, it's a historical trend that is connected with the recent loss of Occidental, of Northrop, of Nissan, all colossal revered high-end private employers here in Los Angeles; (b) that trend impacts real people negatively; and (c) corporate tax avoidance is not something that should be applauded, I would think, nor discounted in its impact on the overall social economy.

Now that I think about it, it's interesting how many conversations I've had with guys at BJJ or judo clubs here in Los Angeles about the job market. The universal sentiment is as I've said above, which is depressing. Might the general populace be deluded? Possibly, but I'm not feeling it.
 
Sure my personal experiences might not be reflective of reality. But when they are consistent with an oft-reported trend of California's middle class being hammered and inequality rising, as well as living expenses become impossible for those who aren't rich, it becomes harder to take a Pollyanna attitude. My grandparents and parents were able to achieve success in California that would be laughable -- simply laughable -- if they tried to come here nowadays. If you hadn't watched the California Dream get systematically eradicated, decade by decade, it might not be so sad.

See, my experience is that I've moved out here recently and done pretty well, and I personally know multiple people, who have become pretty well off after moving to CA recently. Hell, my wife moved out here in at the age of 19 with no education or money, and now makes more than $200K a year. If your grandparents are rich and they don't think they could have done it here now, I'd say that it's unlikely that anyone is going to become rich from scratch anywhere, but the reality is that there are a lot of people striking gold out here still.

I'm not sure about the validity -- one way or the other -- of your general points relating to California's economy more broadly. You'd have to define what it means to have "no effect."

I said no noticeable effect. And what I mean is that someone just looking at the aggregate data without knowledge of the specifics wouldn't say, "hey what happened here?" Unemployment rates, median incomes, modal income ranges, average incomes, GDP growth, etc. are not going to be noticeably affected by Toyota moving, and haven't been noticeably affected by trends in companies moving out or coming in (because they mostly cancel each other out and are totally swamped by the size of the economy). It's like kids scooping water out of the ocean or throwing water into the ocean.

By itself, Toyota's move is a loss of 3,000 direct high-quality jobs and many dependent jobs, a loss felt very keenly I assure you in South Los Angeles. Is it made up in some general sense by jobs in some random California suburb I've never heard of?

Again, if you have LA-specific stats, I'd love to see them (really, not goading you there--that would be interesting to me).

And what is the comparison; are the jobs equal? I don't know, you'd have to have some sort of very detailed analysis that includes demographics, income, costs of living, taxes, etc. to get some sort of realistic picture of what's going on and argue why somebody somewhere else is getting the difference.

For my purposes, you just have to show that there is some trend in negative job growth in the state, falling wages--whatever. That can be shown to be caused by relocation. I don't see any way that will happen because relocation is such a small thing.

My point here is that (a) it's not just a random event to lose Toyota, it's a historical trend that is connected with the recent loss of Occidental, of Northrop, of Nissan, all colossal revered high-end private employers here in Los Angeles; (b) that trend impacts real people negatively; and (c) corporate tax avoidance is not something that should be applauded, I would think, nor discounted in its impact on the overall social economy.

So I somewhat disagree with (a) and (b). I don't know that "random" is le mot juste, but the trend is for companies to come and go at small and roughly even numbers, and like all change, it hurts some people and helps others--or sometimes the same people at different times. I don't see why you think I disagree with (c).

Now that I think about it, it's interesting how many conversations I've had with guys at BJJ or judo clubs here in Los Angeles about the job market. The universal sentiment is as I've said above, which is depressing. Might the general populace be deluded? Possibly, but I'm not feeling it.

Every time there is a downturn, there are people who think it's the end of the world, just as every time there is an upturn, there are people who think a new glorious age is upon us. I'm neither (I mocked Dow 36,000 types just as much as I mock Paulites today).
 
Maybe they are moving somewhere else in California, but they are clearly getting out of Los Angeles because the costs have been skyrocketing while median wage has been moving nowhere. Hence Los Angeles has seen a massive population decrease.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkot...ties-where-a-paycheck-stretches-the-farthest/

"In contrast, many of the cities toward the bottom of our list — notably the Los Angeles and New York areas — have led the country in domestic outmigration. Between 2000 and 2009, the nation’s cultural capitals lost a total of over 3 million people to other parts of the country. Although migration has slowed in the recession, the pattern has continued since 2010."

"Similarly these high prices seem to have the effect of driving out middle-class workers; places like New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco have extraordinary concentrations of both rich and poor workers but fewer in the middle. "

The only detailed analysis of California immigration/outmigration I could find basically seems to confirm that Los Angeles saw a colossal outmigration during the 2000-2010 period, losing an astounding 600k people (1.15 million domestic emigrants, fleeing mostly to the Southwest, offset by 600k foreign immigrants, coming from foreign nations to Los Angeles). Now, California as a whole apparently gained 200,000 people, so it does seem that Los Angeles in particular is getting murdered by outmigration, while the rest of California is doing much better. But particularly of note is not only the vast exodus of Los Angeles residents, but that the exodus is only being replaced by foreign immigrants -- not by domestic immigrants. If you are a US citizen, you have by and large gotten the hell out of Los Angeles.

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cr_71.htm#.U2Az0Ff5Tng

Again, that outmigration (primarily to Southwestern states) has been my impression and is basically a truism for almost everybody here, which of course doesn't mean it's true, but doesn't exactly convey a sense of "it's okay, large corporate employers can leave and nobody is going to suffer for it."

It's great that you and your GF are doing well, but statistically that's a freakish exception. What's interesting is that the middle class used to succeed *without* being particularly competitive. Nowadays, economic competition in California is basically a murderer's row; if you don't have wealth or aren't a killer, you are fucked -- your only real hope is to suck off the public teat. In this, California simply mirrors the broader national trends, it must be admitted, but it is at the higher end of the problem, not the lower. Again, I find it strange that you would suggest that entrenched inequality is not a problem, and that social mobility has not fallen through the floor, when that's pretty much both the default consensus AND what you commonly claim in other contexts.

If you just dwell in relatively elite circles and haven't lived here long-term, you may not have noticed the slow decline of middle class Southern California, a dying world, replaced by intensive stratification. So you probably don't regret it. But it's part-and-parcel of what you generally claim to be against.
 
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If you just dwell in relatively elite circles and haven't lived here long-term, you may not have noticed the slow decline of middle class Southern California, a dying world, replaced by intensive stratification. So you probably don't regret it. But it's part-and-parcel of what you generally claim to be against.

I think we have a big difference of opinion about the value of anecdotal evidence. My point in mentioning my wife (not GF) and others I know was to show that I personally see a lot of anecdotal evidence of mobility in CA. You see the opposite. Fair enough. I believe you, and I believe there are other people who see even more of it than I do. Here's the data:

http://www.pewstates.org/research/data-visualizations/economic-mobility-of-the-states-85899381539

Basically, the South (including Texas) sucks by that measure, the Northeast is very good and everyone else, including CA, is the same.

I certainly would like to see more of it. I don't really get what this discussion has to do with that, though. My general belief is that by almost any way you look at it, the Northeastern states are the best-run, the South are the worst-run, and everyone else (including CA) is in the middle. Texas is one of the least-bad of the Southern states, so it's odd to me that people always try to contrast Texas and CA (because I see them as both middle-of-the-pack states that are not as ideologically extreme as they are often portrayed as). Why don't conservatives compare Alabama and Massachusetts?
 
Why don't conservatives compare Alabama and Massachusetts?
Because it seems boneheaded to compare one of the most urban states to one of the most rural? Are you expecting governors to force collectivization on the peasantry?

Even California should have a huge advantage over texas in this regard. But texas has most of the large urban areas in the "south".
 

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