Topuria has Only One Possible Way He Will Win.

[Hog-train]

First, I'm not saying he won't win. He has a good chance of winning.

But he has only one way of plausibly winning. Trapping Max against the fence and unloading to knock him out.

1. That is what Topuria does every single time.
2. Max almost never gets trapped against the fence and gets unloaded on. His boxing and movement are too good.
3. Max never gets taken down and submitted. So it will be a standup war.
4. Topuria has hardly ever fights a 5 round decision. Max has fought a large number of 5 round decisions.
5. Max never gets finished or even rocked standing. All his losses were decisions. But Topuria hardly ever does decisions and hardly a 5 round one.

So it's like a rock and a hard place. Only 2 possibilities IMO - Max gets knocked out early (which has never happened) or Topuria loses a stand up decision (which has never happened.)

5 round fights are a huge difference from 3 round fights. 5 round fights require strategically pacing yourself.

Due to Topuria's inexperience fighting a high paced stand up fight for 5 rounds, I think the result will be a Max Holloway decision.

 

[Captain Insano]

Tournament can get ktfo too

 

[usernamee]

I can't wait to find out how this fight will play out. This is peak UFC shit right here.

 

[Brigfa2]

Lucky for him there is a first for everything

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Honestly one of the tougher title fights to have a confident pick in. I'm betting Max because I fucked myself betting against him last time. If Topuria has reached the championship rounds and Max is still fresh, how will that affect his psyche? Can Max's granite chin hold up forever?

 

[Goat Poster]

First, I'm not saying he won't win. He has a good chance of winning.

But he has only one way of plausibly winning. Trapping Max against the fence and unloading to knock him out.

1. That is what Topuria does every single time.
2. Max almost never gets trapped against the fence and gets unloaded on. His boxing and movement are too good.
3. Max never gets taken down and submitted. So it will be a standup war.
4. Topuria has NEVER fought a 5 round decision. Max has fought a large number of 5 round decisions.
5. Max never gets finished or even rocked standing. All his losses were decisions. But Topurisa never does decisions.

So it's like a rock and a hard place. Only 2 possibilities IMO - Max gets knocked out early (which has never happened) or Topuria loses a stand up decision.

Due to Topuria's inexperience fighting a high paced stand up fight for 5 rounds, I think the result will be a Max Holloway decision.

3. Max never got knocked down till the last fight. Once in a while shit happens for the 1st time...
4. Topuria gave Emmet a 5 round beatdown and knocked him down in the championship rounds where he still was clearly 1 step ahead of Emmet.
5. Same as 3. Also Topuria has 2 decisions and in 7 fights in the UFC only lost two rounds and finished his opponent in the next round each of those times.


Seems bizarre to make 5 bullet points and not even be accurate about basic facts.

 

[kingmob6]

If Max Wins...I hope there is no rematch. Let Topuria sulk on the sidelines for a while. I'm mentally tired of him.

 

[Hog-train]

3. Max never got knocked down till the last fight. Once in a while shit happens for the 1st time...
4. Topuria gave Emmet a 5 round beatdown and knocked him down in the championship rounds where he still was clearly 1 step ahead of Emmet.

Josh Emmet is a standup brawler. Max Holloway is a much better boxer than Emmet.

5. Same as 3. Also Topuria has 2 decisions and in 7 fights in the UFC only lost two rounds and finished his opponent in the next round each of those times.

The decisions were 3 round fights. That's a huge difference to a 5 round championship fight.

Topuria never went 5 rounds.

 

[AldoStillGoat]

Or Topuria can just wrestlefuck him

 

[Natural Order]

Max going to slap the spanish right out of this cocky clown!

 

[Hog-train]

Or Topuria can just wrestlefuck him

Who has managed to wrestlefuck and submit him? Hasn't happened before.

 

[Goatenstein]

If Max Wins...I hope there is no rematch. Let Topuria sulk on the sidelines for a while. I'm mentally tired of him.

You're already scared of Max getting destroyed in the rematch if he happens to land a lucky punch tomorrow?

 

[Blanqa Blanqua]

I can't wait to find out how this fight will play out. This is peak UFC shit right here.

this is the good take.

 

[jeff7b9]

Whole lot of false assumptions here

Title fights have a way of eliciting new results.
Ilia could definitely out strike * Max technically and get out to a big lead and win a decision.

He could take Max down, mix it up, bank points early by rocking Max.

Max could extend his KTFO streak to 3

I don't buy the whole idea of:
"it hasn't happened in this small set of data
therefore it couldn't possibly happen when two of the best fighters meet in a title fight."



* fucking autocorrect really didn't like me using the word "outstrike"
Fuck off autocorrect. This is MMA lingo. You call yourself a "smart phone" maybe fucking pay the fuck attention and notice the words I use frequently and figure it the fuck out. Get it thru your thick fucking coding that I never intend to say "motherducking" that's not a fucking thing dammit. /rant

 

[fortheo]

Who has managed to wrestlefuck and submit him? Hasn't happened before.

People rarely try, but volk won their second fight largely by mixing the wrestling in. Bermudez won a close fight by putting max on his back and splitting him open with elbows on the ground. Conor outwrestled max with one leg. Ortega and yair got max down etc etc.

Overall max does a good job of shutting the grappling down, but it isn't like he's faced tons of guys going out there with a grapple heavy approach.

Whether illia chooses to go in heavy with the grappling remains to be seen.

 

[blaseblase]

Topuria has NEVER fought a 5 round decision.

His fight with Emmett was 5 rounds

 

[Koya]

Do you have anything more recent than 1998 ?

 

[blaseblase]

People rarely try, but volk won their second fight largely by mixing the wrestling in. Bermudez won a close fight by putting max on his back and splitting him open with elbows on the ground. Conor outwrestled max with one leg. Ortega and yair got max down etc etc.

Overall max does a good job of shutting the grappling down, but it isn't like he's faced tons of guys going out there with a grapple heavy approach.

Whether illia chooses to go in heavy with the grappling remains to be seen.

None of those early fights are indications of his grappling, he was a very green fighter at the time. Ortega and Yair are better indicators (Max outgrappled Yair). Topuria has also been taken down for what it's worth. I do not expect grappling to be much of a factor as Topuria is not the offensive juggernaut some people here believe him to be.

 

[ElLunico]

Ilia has 8 submission wins and is a really good wrestler, better than Max. How does the more versatile fighter have less ways to win the fight? LMAO.. some of yall dumb as fuck

 

[Guy LeDouche]

Josh Emmet is a standup brawler. Max Holloway is a much better boxer than Emmet.



The decisions were 3 round fights. That's a huge difference to a 5 round championship fight.

Topuria never went 5 rounds.

Topuria went 5 rounds in the Emmett fight.

Cmon man. If your gonna write an essay at least get your facts right.