There are a lot of reasons to believe Gus is the favourite vs Jones in the rematch.

[Melas Chasma]

That's why getting into hypotheticals usually just tangles things up. Anyways, let's compare it to the Anderson Silva/Chael Sonnen fights. Sonnen wasn't just on his way to a clear decision, it was going to be one of the most lopsided decisions since Franklin/Crow.

All night long Chael showed he was a bad stylistic match up for Silva. Silva displayed the ability to turn the tide of the fight late and stole the victory. Rematch comes and it looks like the first fight for the first round then again the tide is turned suddenly. Having that ability to always be in the fight instills confidence in oddsmakers and betters alike. That's one of the reasons why Anderson was still the favorite in the rematch.

The main reason why Jones is still widely considered as the favourite is not his ability to turn the fight when being trouble imo. Its because of the general perception of the first fight which now leads people to make questions whether Jones had an off night. This was totally expected for the handfull of people who knew before the fight that the lines were completely off and there was a lot of reasons to believe it was going to be a close battle.

People have a hard time accepting how the first fight went down without excuses, because of the general misconception of the first fight. Its kind of a same thing what happened with Silva vs Weidman and when Werdum beat Fedor. When a champion with a long winning streak loses (or in this case wasnt nearly as dominant what was expected) people are tend to make excuses so that they could "understand" better what happened. But there were people who knew beforehand that Weidman is a better fighter than Silva and that Fedor wasnt even close to in his prime anymore. Still Silva and Fedor were both favourites by the bookies and bettors in their next fights. A champions with long winning streaks, it has a habit to create some illusions which tend to blurry the realistic and objective view off their opponents chances. This happens in every sports.

Gus certainly can adjust his gameplan now that he knows what a 5 rounder takes out of you. Still the gap in exp. in 5 rounders hasn't changed. So if you think it was a factor the first time, shouldn't you still believe it will be?

I said I think the first time is the one which makes the most difference. After that every experience sure helps but probably not that much anymore. Im speaking on average ofc.

I believe Alex was asked in several interviews leading up to the fight about Jones aura and said himself he would not be affected. I'm not enough of a mind reader to confirm that but he fought as if there was none.

I dont think there could be any situation where Alex would have said anything otherwise, so that kind of statement doest really hold any weigh imo. We cant know how Alex felt, but there is a logical reason to believe it is likely he is even more confident now.

One way or the other I think Jones or Gus will put the stamp on the win this time with a finish though. I lean towards Jones.

I think so too that its likely there will be a finish this time. Im just leaning towards Gus more because of the arguments I stated in my op.

 

[FacePlantingPro]

The #2 P4P LHW?? That doesnt even make sense....

Slow there eh?

 

[FallonFoxGOAT]

e) Jonathan won the fight mainly because of his soft and a relatively weak low kicks. It shouldnt be too difficult for Gustafsson to learn to check at least some of those kicks in the rematch.

Those "soft, relatively weak" kicks would have destroyed you.

 

[Melas Chasma]

Sorry man but your over use of Jonathan was buggin me the fuck out, LMAO

Dont know what youre talking about.

 

[PeteGmeng***]

it's not even a question will DC beat Jones, it's how and how bad.

 

[Melas Chasma]

Those "soft, relatively weak" kicks would have destroyed you.

I dont understand what that has to do with anything. They were relatively weak in a context of a UFC championship fight at LHW imo. It looked like the main reason was to just collect points with them and it worked, so good for Jonathan.

 

[bigpunch]

say "jonathan" one more time

 

[DaisyDuke]

a) Gus was already on his way to a clear decision win first time when there was just a little over 5 min left. Had Gustafsson won the 4th Jonathan would have needed a stoppage in the 5th.

b) Gus had no championship or 5 round fight experience first time. This is usually a big factor and should not be ignored.

c) Jonathan has lost his aura of invicibility if he had any = more confident for Gustafsson.

d) Gus knows now he can relatively easy stop Jonathans` takedowns = again more confident for Gustafsson to open up and commit to his attacks more like he normally likes to do.

e) Jonathan won the fight mainly because of his soft and a relatively weak low kicks. It shouldnt be too difficult for Gustafsson to learn to check at least some of those kicks in the rematch.

f) Gustafsson was already training in just 2 weeks after their first fight. It took over 2 months for Jonathan to heal up and go back in training.

g) Gustafsson has been training healthy a long time. He doesnt seem to suffer with the same kind of little nagging injuries what Jonathan has been dealing with a lot.

h) Gustafsson has better momemtum, he has been improving in a faster pace than Jonathan in the past 1-2 years (debatable).

Now all you Jonathan witnesses can say to ignore all this is that Jonathan was just 70-80% first time, Jonathan underestimated Gus etc. Im sorry, but those are just excuses without any kind of an evidence to back them up. You all know this if you are honest. They are not real arguments without evidence, they are called excuses.

Ps.A little correction to the common believe that Jonathan was closer to win the first fight by a stoppage; He wasnt. Gus was closer to finish Jonathan (doctor stoppage) between the rounds 4 and 5. Dana has said Big John and Jonathan begged doctor for not stopping the fight and when asked about this Big John have admitted he appealed to doctor for not stopping the fight.

So please, stop saying Jonathan was more close to finish Gustafsson when in reality it isnt the case. A doctor stoppage is a legit stoppage win if its caused by a legal strikes from the opponent. Whether you like it or not, there is just no way around it. Gus banged that eye badly during the fourth and Jonathan has a nice scar to remind him for that for the rest of his life.

Even Fedor knows whats up.

You should take advantage of your research and bet a ton of money on the fight.

 

[Melas Chasma]

say "jonathan" one more time

 

[Wariowokecancel]

a) Gus was already on his way to a clear decision win first time when there was just a little over 5 min left.

Even Fedor knows whats up.

Put your money where your mouth is and bet a month's wages on Gus. You're so certain.

 

[Melas Chasma]

Put your money where your mouth is and bet a month's wages on Gus. You're so certain.

I will bet something on Gus. Btw, I didnt say how big of a favourite I see Gustafsson. Its relatively close, about 60% for Gus imo.

 

[DizzyYeahYeah]

the #2 p4p lhw? You do know what p4p means?

1. He didn't "whoop dat ass"

3. Manuwa is ranked #11 and was undefeated before he fought gus.

"jones fought the #2 p4p lhw in glow-ver and won"
please elaborate the "2 p4p lhw".

Check your facts before trolling bro.

u mad?

 

[Jackonflame]

Nah. Jones will be the rightful favorite.

Doesn't mean he's gonna win though.

 

[Krouget]

b) Gus had no championship or 5 round fight experience first time. This is usually a big factor and should not be ignored.

I don't see how this can't be a plus for Jones, given he's done this more often and has more to lose. If it can't be ignored, then the case is at the very least equally so for Jones.

c) Jonathan has lost his aura of invicibility if he had any = more confident for Gustafsson.

Gus's confidence comes from a belief in his ability, primarily, and likely less to do with how Jones has handled opposition. Assuming fighters game plan and learn from their previous experiences, I don't think this is any more tilted towards Gus. It really depends on the person and how they view adversity or a challenge. For all we know, Gus could have lit a fire under the champ.

d) Gus knows now he can relatively easy stop Jonathans` takedowns = again more confident for Gustafsson to open up and commit to his attacks more like he normally likes to do.

Jones hasn't employed his wrestling as aggressively in his past few fights, but I think Gus would be a fool to assume he could just impose his will and brush off takedowns. I think this largely depends on how much of Jones's battle plan incorporates TD's.

If we think back to Shogun/Machida 2, the most critical mistake that Machida made, was that he assumed the tactics of the 2nd fight would play out like the 1st. Shogun baited and made him pay dearly for it. Gus should assume anything can and will happen and not take anything for granted.

Gustafsson was already training in just 2 weeks after their first fight. It took over 2 months for Jonathan to heal up and go back in training.

The only way I could see this having any bearing, is if they had an immediate rematch and Jones didn't have a full camp. There is enough time for both of them to have a full camp, and hopefully, they arrive with as little wear & tear as possible.

h) Gustafsson has better momemtum, he has been improving in a faster pace than Jonathan in the past 1-2 years (debatable).

I consider this subjective. Gus last fought a guy outside of the top 10 to regain his shot, while Jones continues to fight ranked competition (we also saw Jones destroy one of Glover's best tools). As you say, this is debatable, but at the end of the day, both Gus and Jones learned a lot from that fight.

Personally, I'm going to again favor Jones in this fight. 60% chance for the champ, IMO.

 

[BruceLeeOnTRT]

Jonathan gonna be eating jello in the hospital again, minus the belt.

 

[Melas Chasma]

I don't see how this can't be a plus for Jones, given he's done this more often and has more to lose. If it can't be ignored, then the case is at the very least equally so for Jones.

Like I explained to the other poster, I believe its the first experience on average which makes the most difference. There is no way of proving that but it seems logical and I believe a lot of fighters would agree. Its A LOT better having at least 1 championship and 5 round fight experience than the difference between 5 to 6 for example. Gus was completely green at the first time. That was my point.

Jones hasn't employed his wrestling as aggressively in his past few fights, but I think Gus would be a fool to assume he could just impose his will and brush off takedowns. I think this largely depends on how much of Jones's battle plan incorporates TD's.

Sure, Im not saying Gus can now be careless for Jones` takedowns. Im saying he now knows better what it takes to defend them so there is a chance he doesnt hesitate that much with commiting to his attacks more like he did first time imo.

If we think back to Shogun/Machida 2, the most critical mistake that Machida made, was that he assumed the tactics of the 2nd fight would play out like the 1st. Shogun baited and made him pay dearly for it. Gus should assume anything can and will happen and not take anything for granted.

Im sure both will be fully prepared for anything in the rematch, they are professionals at the highest level of the sport. Its vey unlikely neither fighter does anything ignorant or amateurish mistakes leading up to the fight. This is also why the famous "Jones overlooked Gustafsson" argument sounds so silly.

The only way I could see this having any bearing, is if they had an immediate rematch and Jones didn't have a full camp. There is enough time for both of them to have a full camp, and hopefully, they arrive with as little wear & tear as possible.

Still, so far Gus have had more time to train healthy after their first fight than Jones. Its better to have more than less healthy training time on average.

I consider this subjective. Gus last fought a guy outside of the top 10 to regain his shot, while Jones continues to fight ranked competition (we also saw Jones destroy one of Glover's best tools). As you say, this is debatable, but at the end of the day, both Gus and Jones learned a lot from that fight.

Imo the improvement Gus has gained since the relatively sloppy Shogun fight is more than Jones in past two years. I think Gus improves at this moment about as fast as Jones was improving a couple of years ago. I also think that Gus would have likely finished Teixeira at this point in his career. But yeah, this is all speculative and just my opinion.

Personally, I'm going to again favor Jones in this fight. 60% chance for the champ, IMO.

Thats fair. Dont really feel need to argue more if we are that close. Jones will always enjoy the edge with the "you got to beat the champ to be a champ" nonsense everytime they go to a close decision. Still, I have so much faith for Gusta that I give him that 60%.

 

[Krouget]

Like I explained to the other poster, I believe its the first experience on average which makes the most difference. There is no way of proving that but it seems logical and I believe a lot of fighters would agree. Its A LOT better having at least 1 championship and 5 round fight experience than the difference between 5 to 6 for example. Gus was completely green at the first time. That was my point.

I'd have to disagree. Especially when it comes to pacing yourself, I believe repeated experience absolutely makes the most difference. The first experience is largely a pass-fail affair, and what you take from that largely depends on the type of study you are (and how good your team is). I think at this level of competition, you just can't chalk this one up for Gus.

To add, the pressure is not only on Jones to make this a more definitive victory, but on Gus to at least repeat his performance. Gus is wildly popular right now, because he did well against an already accomplished Jones-- in other words, Gus now has his own hype to live up to. As much as his fans will say that Gus won (I actually scored a scenario in which he did), both he and his camp know the reality of the situation is that he has to go out there and perform above and beyond what he did. That's no easy task and I think a lot of fans are overlooking how consistency plays out at this level.

Sure, Im not saying Gus can now be careless for Jones` takedowns. Im saying he now knows better what it takes to defend them so there is a chance he doesnt hesitate that much with commiting to his attacks more like he did first time imo.

I certainly think this is possible, but if you recall the second JDS/Cain fight, we saw Cain fail but still relentlessly pursue TDs early on against his opponent. By comparison, Jones didn't relentlessly pursue TDs against Gus (granted, he doesn't shoot like Cain, but he certainly wasn't getting into clinch range as often). I don't recall exactly how many he attempted, but his volume was relatively low and he seemed comfortable (erroneously) to test Gus on the feet for the remainder of the night. That said, credit to Gus for establishing his range and effectively keeping Jones where he wanted him.

Anyway, from looking at a lot of fighters, they begin to get shortsighted and sucked into their opponents pace and fight, and I think that's what happened to Jones. He was forced into a battle of attrition by a much better striker in Gus (boxing, at least), and had to tread water in the deep end. That experience was good for both, but we'll see what happens if Gus gets brought into Jones's world, based on who gets to impose their strategy, first. This is why I say a single five round contest for Gus isn't enough to give him the nod.

Im sure both will be fully prepared for anything in the rematch, they are professionals at the highest level of the sport. Its vey unlikely neither fighter does anything ignorant or amateurish mistakes leading up to the fight. This is also why the famous "Jones overlooked Gustafsson" argument sounds so silly.

Agreed, I don't think anyone is overlooking their opponent in this fight. There is too much at stake, while the challenger has nearly nothing to lose.

Still, so far Gus have had more time to train healthy after their first fight than Jones. Its better to have more than less healthy training time on average.

That fight took place in Sept. 2013 and they've long recovered. Jones went on to defeat his next opponent rather handily and so did Gus, so they were obviously prepared enough.

A fight on short notice can be a detriment, but if you can make a full camp (Gus is saying August 30th, pretty much three months away), you're fine.

But yeah, this is all speculative and just my opinion.

That's all any of us are doing, at this point. :icon_chee Very difficult to predict how anyone will perform on a given night.

Thats fair. Dont really feel need to argue more if we are that close. Jones will always enjoy the edge with the "you got to beat the champ to be a champ" nonsense everytime they go to a close decision. Still, I have so much faith for Gusta that I give him that 60%.

I actually don't like that beat the champ stuff, since if you win per the rules, you win. But what would MMA be without a little drama? Dana sure loves to use it to hype fights, so we'll see what happens.

Cheers

 

[bootsy]

Jones will be at least the 2-1 favourite.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I see Jones making some adjustments to his wrestling in order to be able to take Gustaffson down.

I see Alex coming more aggressive and trying to finish the fight via KO or TKO.

I want Alex to win but Jones has a great chin (the Glover fight showed that he can eat uppercuts) and I think that JBJ has more to learn from his previous fight than Gus.

I just hope to see a war.

 

[Mr. Hammer]

Please man, thinking Jones didn't fight to his own ability that night is so silly, it really solely detracts from gustafsson. You just don't want to think two guys can be as special as Jones has proven to be.

But alright. So Jones "showed up" so to speak, vs. Glover then? And despite fighting an injured glover for 4rounds, and still not being able to finish, he is now "on track" again? Jones is on fire after that performance?

Sorry to say, but to me, this just sounds like nuthuggery. If Jones was as dominant that night as he prooved to be in his past fights, he would undoubtedly have gotten the finish, Glover was showing openings to his vitals even more than Shogun did.

Im for sure willing to bet gustafsson will finish Glover when/if they fight

Lol such nuthuggery that I scored the fight for Gus upon initial viewing. Nice cop-out. Some of us are simply capable of looking at things objectively and "outside of the box".

And yes, Jones looked incredible against Glover. I don't follow the just bleed mentality where a finish is utterly necessary for me to be impressed.