There are a lot of reasons to believe Gus is the favourite vs Jones in the rematch.

[Melas Chasma]

To add, the pressure is not only on Jones to make this a more definitive victory, but on Gus to at least repeat his performance. Gus is wildly popular right now, because he did well against an already accomplished Jones-- in other words, Gus now has his own hype to live up to. As much as his fans will say that Gus won (I actually scored a scenario in which he did), both he and his camp know the reality of the situation is that he has to go out there and perform above and beyond what he did. That's no easy task and I think a lot of fans are overlooking how consistency plays out at this level.

Last time Gus was on MMAHour Ariel asked him if he felt any extra pressure to get a finish against Manuwa for proving a point and Gus admit it and started to talk about how he had always performed better when there was more pressure. In everything in life, not just in MMA. He said he doesnt know why, but he feels it just works for him.

I certainly think this is possible, but if you recall the second JDS/Cain fight, we saw Cain fail but still relentlessly pursue TDs early on against his opponent. By comparison, Jones didn't relentlessly pursue TDs against Gus (granted, he doesn't shoot like Cain, but he certainly wasn't getting into clinch range as often). I don't recall exactly how many he attempted, but his volume was relatively low and he seemed comfortable (erroneously) to test Gus on the feet for the remainder of the night. That said, credit to Gus for establishing his range and effectively keeping Jones where he wanted him.

I think there was 11 td attempt from Jones. Im sure he would have preferred to get the fight to the ground. Gustafsson is a relatively new student in wrestling compared to Jones, so he has probably more room to still improve in that area/his tdd. Considering that it might be even harder for Jones to get td in the rematch.

That fight took place in Sept. 2013 and they've long recovered. Jones went on to defeat his next opponent rather handily and so did Gus, so they were obviously prepared enough.

I was talking about that in a larger and more general context. More healthy training time = better for a fighter on average. And Gus have been training months more than Jones since their last fight.

That's all any of us are doing, at this point. :icon_chee Very difficult to predict how anyone will perform on a given night.

There are arguments that are purely or partly speculative and then there are arguments that can be based on logical reasoning. Different kind of value in latter.

 

[milenss]

Jon won that fight because of only one elbow and slightly biased judging.

We all know that.

That being said, he'll be favorite again because he still holds the belt.

 

[Melas Chasma]

Jon won that fight because of only one elbow and slightly biased judging.

We all know that.

That being said, he'll be favorite again because he still holds the belt.

In a nutshell, he will be considered as the favourite because people in general have a hard time accept how the first fight went without excuses.

 

[kphizzle]

Gus pushed jones to his limits but I still thought jones took the decision hopefully Gus worked on his gas tank and can really push the fight in the later rounds

 

[djacobox372]

LOL, I can't think of a single reason why Gus should be favored. He has a chance, but favoring him is laughable.

 

[djacobox372]

Gus pushed jones to his limits but I still thought jones took the decision hopefully Gus worked on his gas tank and can really push the fight in the later rounds

They both pushed each other to their limits, and Gus broke (didn't even try to win the last round), Jones weathered the storm and turned it around. That means a lot in a rematch.

 

[djacobox372]

In a nutshell, he will be considered as the favourite because people in general have a hard time accept how the first fight went without excuses.

First fight: challenger won a few close rounds by dancing around and point fighting, then got blasted for the last 1.5 rounds.

Reminds me of the brilz/nog fight. He overachieved early against an overconfident opponent, but was put in his place by the end.

 

[ermac88]

a) Gus was already on his way to a clear decision win first time when there was just a little over 5 min left. Had Gustafsson won the 4th Jonathan would have needed a stoppage in the 5th.

b) Gus had no championship or 5 round fight experience first time. This is usually a big factor and should not be ignored.

c) Jonathan has lost his aura of invicibility if he had any = more confident for Gustafsson.

d) Gus knows now he can relatively easy stop Jonathans` takedowns = again more confident for Gustafsson to open up and commit to his attacks more like he normally likes to do.

e) Jonathan won the fight mainly because of his soft and a relatively weak low kicks. It shouldnt be too difficult for Gustafsson to learn to check at least some of those kicks in the rematch.

f) Gustafsson was already training in just 2 weeks after their first fight. It took over 2 months for Jonathan to heal up and go back in training.

g) Gustafsson has been training healthy a long time. He doesnt seem to suffer with the same kind of little nagging injuries what Jonathan has been dealing with a lot.

h) Gustafsson has better momemtum, he has been improving in a faster pace than Jonathan in the past 1-2 years (debatable).

Now all you Jonathan witnesses can say to ignore all this is that Jonathan was just 70-80% first time, Jonathan underestimated Gus etc. Im sorry, but those are just excuses without any kind of an evidence to back them up. You all know this if you are honest. They are not real arguments without evidence, they are called excuses.

Ps.A little correction to the common believe that Jonathan was closer to win the first fight by a stoppage; He wasnt. Gus was closer to finish Jonathan (doctor stoppage) between the rounds 4 and 5. Dana has said Big John and Jonathan begged doctor for not stopping the fight and when asked about this Big John have admitted he appealed to doctor for not stopping the fight.

So please, stop saying Jonathan was more close to finish Gustafsson when in reality it isnt the case. A doctor stoppage is a legit stoppage win if its caused by a legal strikes from the opponent. Whether you like it or not, there is just no way around it. Gus banged that eye badly during the fourth and Jonathan has a nice scar to remind him for that for the rest of his life.

Even Fedor knows whats up.

Gus gave it his all and lost. Best performance of his life.

If you're confident in your man, bet some cash on that?

 

[Dart Feld]

You're not implying that you learn as much from your first 5rounder as from all the following 5rounders are you? I mean, that's pretty stupid, you obviously learn the most from your first go (if you're a talented fighter) and then adjust slightly more each time, but it's obvious Gus will have learned alot about it and Jones has hardly learned as much, again since his first times, even though he managed to do it again vs. Glover teixeira.

But I agree, I also hope that the second fight resembles the first in being just as competitive, and I also expect a finish. But I believe Alex is the one with the greater killerinstict, I expect it to make a big difference this fight!

I just don't believe it's a certainty that a first 5 rounder can close this particular gap as much as you and TS do at least. I agreed it's a very valuable exp. Not only does Jones have more 5 round fights he has had more scheduled 5 round fights and has those training camps as experience as well. Plus the Vitor and Page fights went into the championship rounds.

Anyways, I was disagreeing with it being used as a reason to make Alexander a favorite this time more than anything.

 

[Melas Chasma]

I just don't believe it's a certainty that a first 5 rounder can close this particular gap as much as you and TS do at least. I agreed it's a very valuable exp. Not only does Jones have more 5 round fights he has had more scheduled 5 round fights and has those training camps as experience as well. Plus the Vitor and Page fights went into the championship rounds.

Anyways, I was disagreeing with it being used as a reason to make Alexander a favorite this time more than anything.

Its wasnt just the first experience of a 5 rounder for Alex. It was also his first experience in a championship fight and everything what goes along with it. All the spotlight, promos, media tours, tons of interviews, all that was different for Alex what he was used to. He was completely green at the first time in so many different ways compared to Jones. Imo its only logical to assume that first time experience helps fighter more than Jones` 5 to 6 experience, for example.

You really dont see any weigh in that argument, at all?

 

[MrMiyagiFan]

First of all OP, your totally wrong. Gus never had a "for sure" victory before the fourth round; the only thing that Gus did is make the fight a lot more competitive compared to the past opponents of Jones. If anything, Jones will be much more prepared this time around as I'm sure the take downs by Gus totally surprised him in the first fight. Jones thoroughly beat Gus in the first fight and I think he will finish him this time, and to be quite honest, I don't know why Gus is getting the title shot over DC? Maybe its because he took away that "invincibility" factor that Jones had?

 

[Melas Chasma]

First of all OP, your totally wrong. Gus never had a "for sure" victory before the fourth round;

I never said that. Read it again.

 

[Redhawks100]

I find it really odd that Jones haters refer to him as 'Jonathan' instead of Jon or Bones.

Also, no. Gus should not be the favorite.

 

[JDB]

"Jonathan."

 

[Shogun Rising]

I see it like the only thing Jon could really improve upon is his takedown proficiency, but Gustafsson's size and athleticism is going to give him a great chance to butterfly his way back up if it does hit the ground.

Conversely if Gustafsson improves head kick, flying knee, and spinning elbow defense then I think he wins the first fight.

It should be very interesting, and I think the x factor could be Jon bulking up. He looked lean in the Gustafsson fight and noticeably more thick in the GT fight, and his reasoning was very clear dominating in the clinch against the fence for much of the duration. This could work very well for him against Gustafsson, but it also runs the risk of compromising his speed and dexterity against a very fast and agile Gustafsson, so the world waits to see it play out.

 

[Shogun Rising]

I find it really odd that Jones haters refer to him as 'Jonathan' instead of Jon or Bones.

Also, no. Gus should not be the favorite.

While many of us on here like to poke fun and have joke threads, for those of us