The War Room Bet Thread

[Lead]

I'd like to be able to make my predictions on election day morning. There might be final polls that come out the day before.

Would posting before noon work?

 

[Lead]

@Quipling putting in work here to get some wagers going but to not avail. Maybe you'll find some success in the debate thread tonight

 

[Quipling]

i don't think she can make it 90 minutes w/out a break. if she can it will be impressive considering her parkinsons

Sig bet? If she makes it without taking any unscheduled breaks, I win. If she takes one or more, you win. Duration is until the election. Sig won't need to be anything demeaning - just a simple admission, without qualifiers, that Clinton is healthy/unhealthy.

 

[waiguoren]

Would posting before noon work?

Yeah.

 

[waiguoren]

Also, are you sure Silver will produce specific % predictions for each state? Not "probability of winning" but discrepancy predictions like we were discussing.

 

[Lead]

Also, are you sure Silver will produce specific % predictions for each state? Not "probability of winning" but discrepancy predictions like we were discussing.

1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment before I will post it.
Once, you both are in agreement, tag me so I can add it.

1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016


So how about this @waiguoren and @m52nickerson? It's adjusted so Waig can post his prediction before noon on election day. It's also important to note I don't know when fivethirtyeight cuts off their model before voting opens but I would think they stop before hand like they did with the primaries which sometimes was even a day before voting.

 

[Lead]

Also, are you sure Silver will produce specific % predictions for each state? Not "probability of winning" but discrepancy predictions like we were discussing.

He does projected vote share. For example
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

It includes a decimal if that's important to what you'll post.

Edit- also, you'd really have it in the bag if we only had percentage chance to go off of.

 

[VivaRevolution]

It's a common misconception that people remember @VivaRevolution as HendoRuaGOAT. Very similar to the Berenstein Bears phenomena or that my name use to be Lead Salad. My name is Robert Paulson. HendoRuaGOAT's name was Robert Paulson. His name was Robert Paulson

Just noticed this.

 

[m52nickerson]

Also, are you sure Silver will produce specific % predictions for each state? Not "probability of winning" but discrepancy predictions like we were discussing.

1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016


So how about this @waiguoren and @m52nickerson? It's adjusted so Waig can post his prediction before noon on election day. It's also important to note I don't know when fivethirtyeight cuts off their model before voting opens but I would think they stop before hand like they did with the primaries which sometimes was even a day before voting.

I would just like to specify I would like to use 538's Polls-plus forecast, as that is the one that Nate does the most adjustments to. Also, note that the sig payout last until the inauguration.

With those, we good?

 

[Lead]

I would just like to specify I would like to use 538's Polls-plus forecast, as that is the one that Nate does the most adjustments to. Also, note that the sig payout last until the inauguration.

With those, we good?

Can you link specifically where you mean? I mentioned above a link to the projected vote share. I think that's what it would be

 

[Lead]

I would just like to specify I would like to use 538's Polls-plus forecast, as that is the one that Nate does the most adjustments to. Also, note that the sig payout last until the inauguration.

With those, we good?

Actually, I found it in that link. You can do the polls plus on the page I showed. @waiguoren , polls plus projected vote share is what we will be pulling from 538. They have a polls only, polls plus and now cast. M52 is electing to use the polls plus projected vote share. Just need one more okay from you

 

[waiguoren]

He does projected vote share. For example
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

It includes a decimal if that's important to what you'll post.

Edit- also, you'd really have it in the bag if we only had percentage chance to go off of.

Haha. True.

Great, looks like a well-defined wager.

 

[waiguoren]

Actually, I found it in that link. You can do the polls plus on the page I showed. @waiguoren , polls plus projected vote share is what we will be pulling from 538. They have a polls only, polls plus and now cast. M52 is electing to use the polls plus projected vote share. Just need one more okay from you

Sure

 

[Lead]

Final version

1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment before I will post it.
Once, you both are in agreement, tag me so I can add it.

@waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016

 

[m52nickerson]

Final version



@waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016

Agreed!

 

[Lead]

@waiguoren , I forgot to clarify with the formula that this is the sum of the (absolute value) differences meaning they don't net out? For example:

Florida 54-52= 2
Ohio 52-53= -1
Pennsylvania= 56-55= 1
North Carolina= 49-52= -3

The end result should be 2+1+1+3= 7, not 2-1+1-3= -1, correct?

 

[waiguoren]

@waiguoren , I forgot to clarify with the formula that this is the sum of the (absolute value) differences meaning they don't net out? For example:

Florida 54-52= 2
Ohio 52-53= -1
Pennsylvania= 56-55= 1
North Carolina= 49-52= -3

The end result should be 2+1+1+3= 7, not 2-1+1-3= -1, correct?

| | means absolute value, correct.

 

[Rational Poster]

I want to bet @Hans Gruber

If Trump wins I won't post in the War room anymore.

If Hillary wins Hans can't start threads in the War room anymore, but he can still post.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I want to bet @Hans Gruber

If Trump wins I won't post in the War room anymore.

If Hillary wins Hans can't start threads in the War room anymore, but he can still post.

Honestly, I'd bet that Hans won't start threads if Trump loses anyway.

You should do an AV bet with him. Give him this:

 

[Rational Poster]

Honestly, I'd bet that Hans won't start threads if Trump loses anyway.

You should do an AV bet with him. Give him this:

You'd probably win that bet.