Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

Best bet(s) settled in the last bet thread (see closed bets section in post 3)

  • Bet 53 Quipling v. SATW

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 48 kenetics v. HockeyBJJ

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Bet 54 Fawlty v. oceanmachine

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 59 MMAisGod v. oceanmachine

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 57 Trotsky v. heirapparent

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 58 Trotsky v. second sight

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 46 Andy Capp v. Richie Madano

    Votes: 1 8.3%

  • Bet 60 Jack V Savage v. The ScorpioN

    Votes: 3 25.0%

  • Bet 62 Rob Battisti v. Jack V Savage

    Votes: 5 41.7%

  • Bet 63 Lead v. cottagecheesefan

    Votes: 6 50.0%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
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LMP said:
@Rob Battisti i aint scared homie. Pump and dump as always. Hoped you dumped high so you can buy back in at the low. Guys that keep telling everyone to just hold are fools. With bitcoin you should follow the trends of pumping and dumping.
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You realize it’s still up over the last 7 days right?
 
LMP said:
A week of gains wiped out in 20 mins.
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+153% YTD
+66% over 3 months

A 5.5% drop and it’s “a pump and dump” smh.

9.2% if you couldn’t the literal 30 seconds it touched 40295.
 
Rob Battisti said:
+153% YTD
+66% over 3 months

A 5.5% drop and it’s “a pump and dump” smh.

9.2% if you couldn’t the literal 30 seconds it touched 40295.
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It was at over 68k then dropped to 16k. The future world currency that has no stability.
 
LMP said:
It was at over 68k then dropped to 16k. The future world currency that has no stability.
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I never claimed it would be the future world currency. However, every cycle has experienced less volatility than the last and as the ETFs come in, volatility will continue to decline.
 
I hope that I convinced even one of you doubters to consider getting in before this thing really takes off.

@LMP you’re a good guy so I take no pleasure in winning.
 
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Rob Battisti said:
I hope that I convinced even one of you doubters to consider getting in before this thing really takes off.

@LMP you’re a good guy so I take no pleasure in winning.
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It's all for fun. No worries on if I lose. It doesn't change my opinion on what bitcoin is and what is going on with it. I want everyone to make as much money as they can. If someone is just holding for the sake of holding they are not maximizing their profits. The people that are selling high buying back in at lower are the ones that will profit the most. Those that are holding when/if it crashes will lose everything.

I think the stated purpose of how bitcoin would be used as a currency is pretty clearly not really viable vs established backed currency we currently use. As I stated before I thought if bitcoin held below 35k at the end of last year, you would have had a rough time reaching 50k, but when it was above then it would for sure hit above 50k. Will it hold there? I still doubt it.
 
LMP said:
It's all for fun. No worries on if I lose. It doesn't change my opinion on what bitcoin is and what is going on with it. I want everyone to make as much money as they can. If someone is just holding for the sake of holding they are not maximizing their profits. The people that are selling high buying back in at lower are the ones that will profit the most. Those that are holding when/if it crashes will lose everything.

I think the stated purpose of how bitcoin would be used as a currency is pretty clearly not really viable vs established backed currency we currently use. As I stated before I thought if bitcoin held below 35k at the end of last year, you would have had a rough time reaching 50k, but when it was above then it would for sure hit above 50k. Will it hold there? I still doubt it.
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Hold for how long? 50k is going to be blown away over the next few 18 months.
 
Tyler Cowen said he’s bullish on BTC. I guess I don’t hear him talk much about that subject so was taken by surprise.
 
Lead said:
Open Bets

#67. @HockeyBjj v. @Jack V Savage
1. December 2023 Inflation as measured by unadjusted, CPI 12 month index will be below 5.50%
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @HockeyBjj - against
3. Tentatively 1/18/24 (whenever the initial report is issued)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6. This will be the initial reported number for December 2023 from the BLS. For reference, this link shows the January 2023 number at 6.4%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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@HockeyBjj, is this settled now?
 
Lead said:
Tyler Cowen said he’s bullish on BTC. I guess I don’t hear him talk much about that subject so was taken by surprise.
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Yeah, that's a bit surprising. Personally, I've been neither bullish nor bearish--my view is that the market is pretty efficient in the sense of incorporating publicly available information into the current price at any time. So in a sense, increases make me more bullish, though the very high volatility is a bit of a check on that.
 
Rob Battisti said:
I hope that I convinced even one of you doubters to consider getting in before this thing really takes off.

@LMP you’re a good guy so I take no pleasure in winning.
Click to expand...

Guide me to the path I don't mind putting down a couple of $k if you're truly this confident all this time and it's making money lol. What am I buying and where? Or is it too late?
 
HockeyBjj said:
yeah. 3.4%. It’s trending back up, but didn’t stay in the 5-6s like I thought it would

Enjoy the W
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I think it's a bit premature to say it's trending back up (especially since core is coming down), as opposed to just noisy.

I think the theory that it wasn't transitory--that higher inflation would become embedded in expectations (and thus wage negotiations and pricing) should be regarded as falsified at this point. It could go up because we're kind of right at full capacity now so demand heating up would affect inflation, but I don't think there's much remaining concern about a spike or anything. I'm still a little less optimistic than most economists and a lot more optimistic than almost the entire WR, though.
 
MMAisGod said:
Guide me to the path I don't mind putting down a couple of $k if you're truly this confident all this time and it's making money lol. What am I buying and where? Or is it too late?
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There is money to be made as long as it doesn't do another huge collapse. That's the problem with crypto. There are factors that could cause a major collapse at anytime. If you are selling as each wave hits its peak then selling as it nears its collapse ypu are good. Take those that bought in over 50k last time then watched as it collapsed to under 20k. They still haven't made back those gains. Holders are crazy not taking money as it goes up.
 
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