Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[HereticBD]

We had this whole thing where I brought up the fact that Trump was unlikely to concede, and would claim that the election was rigged, which Heretic said was crazy to even speculate about

His concession was never an issue to be considered on my end, as I said...repeatedly, it would be about who was officially declared the winner. Now you're trying to make it sound like I was holding that bet up over that? LOL.

You're such a pathetic weasel, dude.

 

[HereticBD]

The whole thing is stupid. Does Heretic think Trump is going to be the nominee and with enough confidence that he'll bet on it? It's not a crazy claim on its own, and if he insists on ruling out two of the big obstacles, his odds get much better, but the dispute has much less meaning.

Jackie, we all know what this is. You too, believe Trump will be the nominee, and you're trying to not so subtly talk one of your boyfriends out of making a bad bet.

He's a big boy, Jackie. Let him make his own decisions.

 

[HereticBD]

Hey @Andy Capp, if you're really hung up on that death thing, we can make two bets. One will be for him being the GOP nominee, which I reasonably believed was always based on whether or not he will have the support for it, and not a random act of God eliminating him.

So we can do that, and we can also make a separate Death bet. So, if one bet gets nullified over his death, you can still win one.

 

[Lead]

We just wait it out to the date of the deadline with whatever happens in between. Don't force anyone to concede before it's official, unless they volunteer to. Same deal would be if DeSantis and others announced they weren't running and started endorsing Trump. If he's there, he's there. If he's not, he's not. Winner/loser is declared accordingly on that date.

Only other stipulation other than death, would be serious injury/illness that prevents him from running. Act of God type shit, like cancer or getting mangled in a car wreck or whatever. Not if he sprains or ankle or some shit and makes that an excuse. I'll be reasonable and concede if that's the case.

Yea, I wouldn’t call it early. It would be at the convention, whenever that is, even if it looks impossible for one of the participants at that point.

The illness thing is a little more tricky. First, theres a wide range of illness or injuries he could get and with any specific one, I’d have to place judgment if it mattered enough. Second, there could be a component of Trump is falling behind in the race and some announcement is given he needs to drop out due to illness and not really because he was going to lose. It’s hard to predict and determine what will and won’t count here. I don’t know how to make it clear as day and though I like to believe you and Andy would align on whatever scenario arose, I can’t be certain of it. Is there a way we can make that piece more procedural/ objective or is it possible to just stick with the death clause?

 

[Lead]

I suppose you all could agree this process could be called “the art of the deal”

 

[HereticBD]

Yea, I wouldn’t call it early. It would be at the convention, whenever that is, even if it looks impossible for one of the participants at that point.

The illness thing is a little more tricky. First, theres a wide range of illness or injuries he could get and with any specific one, I’d have to place judgment if it mattered enough. Second, there could be a component of Trump is falling behind in the race and some announcement is given he needs to drop out due to illness and not really because he was going to lose. It’s hard to predict and determine what will and won’t count here. I don’t know how to make it clear as day and though I like to believe you and Andy would align on whatever scenario arose, I can’t be certain of it. Is there a way we can make that piece more procedural/ objective or is it possible to just stick with the death clause?

All I can say is that I'd be reasonable about it. I don't think it's ever gonna come down to that, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

This is why I can't stand this shit. It's never simple and agreed upon through just common sense. I made the exact same bet with fingercuffs in another thread, and it was agreed upon in two or three posts. No fuss, no muss. You come in here, it's like we're in Vegas or some shit, and this nickle and dime shit goes on for pages and pages. The bet is Trump will either be the GOP nominee or not. Death or serious illness/injury nullifies it, which should be a given. That's it. If something unforeseen comes up down the road, we'll deal with it then. If someone ends up being a little bitch about it, they'll hear about it, and it will be just as bad as losing the bet.

 

[Lead]

All I can say is that I'd be reasonable about it. I don't think it's ever gonna come down to that, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

This is why I can't stand this shit. It's never simple and agreed upon through just common sense. I made the exact same bet with fingercuffs in another thread, and it was agreed upon in two or three posts. No fuss, no muss. You come in here, it's like we're in Vegas or some shit, and this nickle and dime shit goes on for pages and pages. The bet is Trump will either be the GOP nominee or not. Death or serious illness/injury nullifies it, which should be a given. That's it. If something unforeseen comes up down the road, we'll deal with it then. If someone ends up being a little bitch about it, they'll hear about it, and it will be just as bad as losing the bet.

I understand the frustration but with 60 some bets done in here, I’ve found many people have a different views on what is common sense and what isn’t. We just saw that with the death piece right there. Some people would have seen the original written up version as “well, death wasn’t in there, that’s really shitty luck but I lost” and others would say “Neither of us could’ve foreseen this event so the bet is obviously null”. The point of getting the bet locked in is nothing should change with it until it’s called. The only time that allows for an open bet to change is if both participants proposed and edit and agreed. So crossing that bridge later could leave the person in a bad spot if the other person doesn’t want to cross said bridge.

@Andy Capp, where do you stand on serious illness/ injury? Is there a clear cut way this could be introduced to get this finalized?

 

[Andy Capp]

The whole thing is stupid. Does Heretic think Trump is going to be the nominee and with enough confidence that he'll bet on it? It's not a crazy claim on its own, and if he insists on ruling out two of the big obstacles, his odds get much better, but the dispute has much less meaning.

I appreciate where you're coming from; I see how things are, but don't worry about me. Who knows, I might be banned by the time the bet is settled <Lmaoo>

I am mainly just uncomfortable being ranked right behind you and @Lead with a lowly 1-0 record. I either want to legitimize it with another win--which has been hard to come by--or take a loss and stop feeling like a poser. It's all in good fun to me as long as "people are reasonable".

Hey @Andy Capp, if you're really hung up on that death thing, we can make two bets. One will be for him being the GOP nominee, which I reasonably believed was always based on whether or not he will have the support for it, and not a random act of God eliminating him.

So we can do that, and we can also make a separate Death bet. So, if one bet gets nullified over his death, you can still win one.

No need for a second bet.

All I can say is that I'd be reasonable about it. I don't think it's ever gonna come down to that, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

This is why I can't stand this shit. It's never simple and agreed upon through just common sense. I made the exact same bet with fingercuffs in another thread, and it was agreed upon in two or three posts. No fuss, no muss. You come in here, it's like we're in Vegas or some shit, and this nickle and dime shit goes on for pages and pages. The bet is Trump will either be the GOP nominee or not. Death or serious illness/injury nullifies it, which should be a given. That's it. If something unforeseen comes up down the road, we'll deal with it then. If someone ends up being a little bitch about it, they'll hear about it, and it will be just as bad as losing the bet.

I didn't nickel and dime fuckall. Lead had a valid point that if there is to be any exception which nullifies the bet, all such exceptions need to be enumerated if the bet thread itself is to fulfill its mandate. As long as the terms are decided before Trump makes his big announcement, what's the hurry? For someone with coming up on 2^16 posts what's a couple of extra to you anyway?

On the Trump death thing, you can't blame me for politely trying; I mean, as Jack said, I could have just said nothing instead of giving you the courtesy of freely granting that it's the norm here that in these cases death nullifies the bet. I took no issue after that and agreed to your terms. So, I don't know who you're whining at in this post but I really don't care all that much so to me it's, like, you know, whatever.

All that having said, @Lead I accept the terms and that Heretic will keep his word and we won't have to haggle over how to define reasonable. So, "ok" to the bold text.

 

[HereticBD]

I understand the frustration but with 60 some bets done in here, I’ve found many people have a different views on what is common sense and what isn’t. We just saw that with the death piece right there. Some people would have seen the original written up version as “well, death wasn’t in there, that’s really shitty luck but I lost” and others would say “Neither of us could’ve foreseen this event so the bet is obviously null”. The point of getting the bet locked in is nothing should change with it until it’s called. The only time that allows for an open bet to change is if both participants proposed and edit and agreed. So crossing that bridge later could leave the person in a bad spot if the other person doesn’t want to cross said bridge.

It never ends. The death thing is a given, which is why we both recognized it as an outlier of sorts, albeit for different reasons. It's obviously not in the spirit of the bet, which should be clear is based on if he'll have the support or not. All these other things can be dealt with down the line if they happen, and if someone is being unreasonable one way or another, they'll likely be mocked worse than if they just conceded and rocked a sig for a few months. We don't need to get the medical journal out and go over every single illness he may get, and ponder 900 different scenario's that may or may not happen, to get this done.

This is essentially the same thing as that election bet me and JVS had, where the bet was very simple over who was going to be named the official winner, and JVS kept bringing up all these ridiculous scenarios that went on and on for pages that were never in dispute, and then after going in circles over all that nonsense, the bet just ended up being the exact same bet I originally proposed.

I swear, if Andy takes that Death bet, we're gonna start nickle and diming over what "death" actually means.

"Bu-but what if the National Enquirer claims he faked his death, and was spotted on a boat in Brazil? What if he gets cryogenically frozen? What if they clone him from his DNA? What if, what if, what if, what if...."

 

[Jack V Savage]

I appreciate where you're coming from; I see how things are, but don't worry about me. Who knows, I might be banned by the time the bet is settled <Lmaoo>

I am mainly just uncomfortable being ranked right behind you and @Lead with a lowly 1-0 record. I either want to legitimize it with another win--which has been hard to come by--or take a loss and stop feeling like a poser. It's all in good fun to me as long as "people are reasonable".

If you're cool with it, that's fine. But I think he is clearly trying to back out after he already made the agreement. Not something an honorable man would do. But I guess you get two potential wins here--Heretic is forced to show his character some more, plus you possibly win the bet.

 

[Lead]

@HockeyBjj / @Lowmanproblems

Anytime there’s a more subjective piece to the bet, I’m hesitant to add it. Wondering if you two would be okay with being part of the decision here.

HereticBD v. Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null

I mostly want two others involved on calling it because of 6b. Unlikely to happen but I want more than one perspective to look at the events and pick a winner or determine the bet is null. Also makes it less objectionable if a group can review rather than a single person (myself). You two good for being on the decision side?

 

[HereticBD]

@HockeyBjj / @Lowmanproblems

Anytime there’s a more subjective piece to the bet, I’m hesitant to add it. Wondering if you two would be okay with being part of the decision here.

HereticBD v. Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null

I mostly want two others involved on calling it because of 6b. Unlikely to happen but I want more than one perspective to look at the events and pick a winner or determine the bet is null. Also makes it less objectionable if a group can review rather than a single person (myself). You two good for being on the decision side?

Done.

 

[LMP]

@HockeyBjj / @Lowmanproblems

Anytime there’s a more subjective piece to the bet, I’m hesitant to add it. Wondering if you two would be okay with being part of the decision here.

HereticBD v. Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null

I mostly want two others involved on calling it because of 6b. Unlikely to happen but I want more than one perspective to look at the events and pick a winner or determine the bet is null. Also makes it less objectionable if a group can review rather than a single person (myself). You two good for being on the decision side?

Sure any time.

 

[HockeyBjj]

@HockeyBjj / @Lowmanproblems

Anytime there’s a more subjective piece to the bet, I’m hesitant to add it. Wondering if you two would be okay with being part of the decision here.

HereticBD v. Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null

I mostly want two others involved on calling it because of 6b. Unlikely to happen but I want more than one perspective to look at the events and pick a winner or determine the bet is null. Also makes it less objectionable if a group can review rather than a single person (myself). You two good for being on the decision side?

That backing out of a failed primary bud due to illness sounds like it really could be used to save face. If he’s not diagnosed with cancer or has a stroke (ironic) I’d be skeptical that’s the real reason for backing out by Trump and it would make this bet messy. The illness reasons I think have to be more clear, or you just leave a lot of interpretation to the judge and live with the ruling.

I’m good with a party group of me and Lowman (center right and center left) and you given leeway to decide as we wish, so long as no complaints if disagree with ruling.

Only other area I think needs to be made clear in advance in case it happens, is does Trump running as third party equal a win for Andy or a null?

 

[Lead]

That backing out of a failed primary bud due to illness sounds like it really could be used to safe face. If he’s not diagnosed with cancer or has a stroke (ironic) I’d be skeptical that’s the real reason for backing out by Trump and it would make this bet messy. The illness reasons I think have to be more clear, or you just leave a lot of interpretation to the judge and live with the ruling.

I’m good with a two party group of me and Lowman (center right and center left) given leeway to decide as we wish, so long as no complaints if disagree with ruling.

Only other area I think needs to be made clear in advance in case it happens, is does Trump running as third party equal a win for Andy or a null?

They don’t seem interested in clarifying the illness/ injury part. I’ve stated above the same concern and how subjective that would be as well as how Trump could use it as a more graceful way to bow out. I can’t think of cleaner language either though so thought at least three people could weigh in instead of one. If you have better language for it, let me know but otherwise, I’ll either go with three deciding or push as I think it has a possibility of argument upon settlement.

Third party wouldn’t matter. It’s the Republican nominee so it’s likely Andy would be the winner there or some weird null was ill and then ran later which would question how ill he truly was.

 

[HockeyBjj]

They don’t seem interested in clarifying the illness/ injury part. I’ve stated above the same concern and how subjective that would be as well as how Trump could use it as a more graceful way to bow out. I can’t think of cleaner language either though so thought at least three people could weigh in instead of one. If you have better language for it, let me know but otherwise, I’ll either go with three deciding or push as I think it has a possibility of argument upon settlement.

Third party wouldn’t matter. It’s the Republican nominee so it’s likely Andy would be the winner there or some weird null was ill and then ran later which would question how ill he truly was.

3 of us judiciating on this works, be forewarned, I'm a skeptic tho

The only reason that skepticism doesn't drive me into Conspiracy Theories, is that I'm even more skeptical of the CTs than I am of the official story that don't often pass the sniff test

 

[Lead]

@HereticBD v. @Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null
7. @Lead, @Lowmanproblems, @HockeyBjj (Majority decides the bet with the hopes that it will be unanimous upon deliberation)

@HereticBD
@Andy Capp
There you go. Keep in mind the 6b part concerns were pointed out and the solution arrived at is three different posters are going to give the verdict. I can’t guarantee either or both of you will agree with the verdict but when the language is that open ended, there’s room for that to happen. You are agreeing here to the arbitration of the bet which is key. All parties here want to give a fair verdict.


Please quote and approve and we will (finally) have this official.

 

[Andy Capp]

It never ends. The death thing is a given, which is why we both recognized it as an outlier of sorts, albeit for different reasons. It's obviously not in the spirit of the bet, which should be clear is based on if he'll have the support or not. All these other things can be dealt with down the line if they happen, and if someone is being unreasonable one way or another, they'll likely be mocked worse than if they just conceded and rocked a sig for a few months. We don't need to get the medical journal out and go over every single illness he may get, and ponder 900 different scenario's that may or may not happen, to get this done.

This is essentially the same thing as that election bet me and JVS had, where the bet was very simple over who was going to be named the official winner, and JVS kept bringing up all these ridiculous scenarios that went on and on for pages that were never in dispute, and then after going in circles over all that nonsense, the bet just ended up being the exact same bet I originally proposed.

I swear, if Andy takes that Death bet, we're gonna start nickle and diming over what "death" actually means.

"Bu-but what if the National Enquirer claims he faked his death, and was spotted on a boat in Brazil? What if he gets cryogenically frozen? What if they clone him from his DNA? What if, what if, what if, what if...."

Well, if you're going to be a bitch about it you're either twice the cunt I thought you were or you didn't read anything I said in the last few posts or both. Who the fuck is we? Just nut up and stop being such a whiner or GTFO and forget about it. I'm not going to put up with that kind of shit for the next two years over a sig bet. FFS quit preparing your excuses for when you lose for backing a loser--it's very transparent and the bet isn't even a day old yet, you pathetic git.

 

[Andy Capp]

@HereticBD v. @Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null
7. @Lead, @Lowmanproblems, @HockeyBjj (Majority decides the bet with the hopes that it will be unanimous upon deliberation)

@HereticBD
@Andy Capp
There you go. Keep in mind the 6b part concerns were pointed out and the solution arrived at is three different posters are going to give the verdict. I can’t guarantee either or both of you will agree with the verdict but when the language is that open ended, there’s room for that to happen. You are agreeing here to the arbitration of the bet which is key. All parties here want to give a fair verdict.


Please quote and approve and we will (finally) have this official.

Approved.

 

[Andy Capp]

They don’t seem interested in clarifying the illness/ injury part. I’ve stated above the same concern and how subjective that would be as well as how Trump could use it as a more graceful way to bow out. I can’t think of cleaner language either though so thought at least three people could weigh in instead of one. If you have better language for it, let me know but otherwise, I’ll either go with three deciding or push as I think it has a possibility of argument upon settlement.

Third party wouldn’t matter. It’s the Republican nominee so it’s likely Andy would be the winner there or some weird null was ill and then ran later which would question how ill he truly was.

I don't care. Either he'll add a total lack of integrity and self respect to his other faults or he won't. I simultaneously hurt my chances of winning and established my own credibility by bringing up the illness/death possibility in the first place.

Language: if Trump is incapacitated in such a way that he cannot fulfill his role as Republican nominee the bet is nullified because Heretic is a whiny bitch.