The War Room Bet Thread V3

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waiguoren said:
1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

@Lead I approve this bet.
Click to expand...

5 years is a little long for a bet I'm not very interested in. I can do 2 months, though. Does that work?
 
1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
2 months. Again, I don't feel very strongly about this bet. It was more of a "eh, what the hell? Why not?" when you proposed it.
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Yeah, ideally, the point of making bets here should be to help calibrate our thinking, which is utterly defeated by angle-shooting and ridiculous terms.
 
BTW, though I didn't pull the trigger on wai's bet offer regarding Trump's RCP average, we can note that he was wrong, which should affect his thinking (again, that's what the bet thread is for).
 
waiguoren said:
Still offering bet:

Bernard Sanders will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president. Me: for You: against.
Click to expand...

Fawlty said:
I accept for a 4 month screen name bet (or whatever the name change cooldown timer is, I believe 120 days). Loser must acquire Plat status, if not Plat, to fulfill the terms. @.Lead.
Click to expand...
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Ducking guy quacks and ducks.
 
Jack V Savage said:
BTW, though I didn't pull the trigger on wai's bet offer regarding Trump's RCP average, we can note that he was wrong, which should affect his thinking (again, that's what the bet thread is for).
Click to expand...
What?
Impossible!!!
 
Jack V Savage said:
Yeah, ideally, the point of making bets here should be to help calibrate our thinking, which is utterly defeated by angle-shooting and ridiculous terms.
Click to expand...
Angle-shooting and ridiculous terms...hmmm...


#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage


This moaning on your part looks like saltiness due to your loss of champion status.

Jack V Savage said:
BTW, though I didn't pull the trigger on wai's bet offer regarding Trump's RCP average, we can note that he was wrong, which should affect his thinking (again, that's what the bet thread is for).
Click to expand...

Notice how my betting record is 6-1 and soon to be 8-1. It seems that I am almost never wrong when it comes to propositions that I actually bet on. Think about that.

As for the RCP bet: I was correct on the core issue. Trump got a hefty boost from the Barr letter and hit the maximum of his presidency in multiple polls including The Hill/Harris X and NPR/Marist. In Rasmussen he did only slightly worse, hitting his highest level (52%) since inauguration. The RCP average missed my expected level (45.0%) due to RCP's phase-out algorithm and the timing of poll releases. So yes my thinking has been affected (RCP average is not a good indicator of level of support within +-1.5% margin), but not in the way that I suspect you think it should be.
 
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waiguoren said:
1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.
Click to expand...

Sounds good.

waiguoren said:
You projected massive confidence until I offered the bet. Classic grandstanding on your part.
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Not sure why you feel the need to talk trash and outright lie when I have been amicable about the whole thing.

As I told you from the start, I am very confident Sanders doesn't win the nomination. I'm not confident in the least that Biden does, and mentioned the bet will most likely be a push.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Sounds good.



Not sure why you feel the need to talk trash and outright lie when I have been amicable about the whole thing.

As I told you from the start, I am very confident Sanders doesn't win the nomination. I'm not confident in the least that Biden does, and mentioned the bet will most likely be a push.
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There was no lie. You projected massive confidence that Sanders would not be the nominee. You also wrote:

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
If any straight old white guy is going to win, it's probably Biden
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If we combine these two statements, you should be extremely confident (i.e., "feel very strongly") that you will not lose the bet.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Sounds good.



Not sure why you feel the need to talk trash and outright lie when I have been amicable about the whole thing.

As I told you from the start, I am very confident Sanders doesn't win the nomination. I'm not confident in the least that Biden does, and mentioned the bet will most likely be a push.
Click to expand...
You might not be familiar, but this is how Wai works. P4P most arrogant guy to grace the bet thread. He doesn't seem capable of a friendly wager, and is a poor sport regardless of outcome.
I legit think he might have aspergers.
 
Limbo Pete said:
You might not be familiar, but this is how Wai works. P4P most arrogant guy to grace the bet thread. He doesn't seem capable of a friendly wager, and is a poor sport regardless of outcome.
I legit think he might have aspergers.
Click to expand...

Ah, thanks for the heads-up. This was my first interaction of any kind with him.
 
waiguoren said:
1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.
Click to expand...

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Sounds good.
Click to expand...

I know you made the original post but I need you to quote and give a final okay @waiguoren
 
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