The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Sketch]

I appreciate the bait, I really do, but it's kind of dumb right? You are aware that I just secured two similar bets at much better terms. +410 and a Sanders v Biden bet.

You are the bet champion. You dictate what goes on.

 

[Limbo Pete]

I appreciate the bait, I really do, but it's kind of dumb right? You are aware that I just secured two similar bets at much better terms. +410 and a Sanders v Biden bet.

Bets are like crack to you, dude.
This is rank cowardice imo.

 

[waiguoren]

Bets are like crack to you, dude.
This is rank cowardice imo.

I like this double-team baiting thing you guys are doing. Don't stop.

 

[BarryDillon]

1. Peter Strozk, Lisa Page, Jim Comey, Christopher Steele, Andrew McCabe, Bruce Ohr, prosecutors, other justice department officials, Democratic Presidential Candidates, journalists, academics.
2. At least 2 of these people, or members from these groups will be indicted by Trump's Justice Department.
3. @BarryDillon for; @HereticBD against.
4. Must occur prior to the 2020 election day of voting(November 3, 2020).
5. 6 month AV bet.

 

[HereticBD]

1. Peter Strozk, Lisa Page, Jim Comey, Christopher Steele, Andrew McCabe, Bruce Ohr, prosecutors, other justice department officials, Democratic Presidential Candidates, journalists, academics.
2. At least 2 of these people, or members from these groups will be indicted by Trump's Justice Department.
3. @BarryDillon for; @HereticBD against.
4. Must occur prior to the 2020 election day of voting(November 3, 2020).
5. 6 month AV bet.

Cool, but lets stick with names. I'll sign off on the six you've got listed. You can add a few more if you'd like.

 

[waiguoren]

1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @JudoThrowFiasco - Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two years
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @JudoThrowFiasco - Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two years
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

Myself and @Anung Un Rama are more than capable of setting up our own terms. You can take the night off, skippy

 

[waiguoren]

Myself and @Anung Un Rama are more than capable of setting up our own terms. You can take the night off, skippy

Don't forget me if it falls through.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Don't forget me if it falls through.

You're already forgotten

 

[waiguoren]

You're already forgotten

I'll never forget you

 

[Jack V Savage]

Just like the PotWR, the participants are what bring the entertainment. I didn’t look but I’d assume you and Jack are in half of those bets.

I think it's a great idea to make constant small bets to calibrate your understanding of probability. Even when not betting, I try to track my expectations.

 

[senri]

I think it's a great idea to make constant small bets to calibrate your understanding of probability. Even when not betting, I try to track my expectations.

Your poetry can be better with this Mr. Savage. In fact it must be better because you have been improving in the past few months. Give us something we can really synthesize with.

 

[Caudillo]

@VivaRevolution war with Iran will happen by January 1st 2020.

@Caudillo- Says war with Iran will happen by January 1st 2020. @VivaRevolution previously said no.

US strikes against Iran either in retaliation of self defense or preemptive strike. I am NOT predicting a mass Iraq type invasion but at the least a severe aerial campaign and destruction of iranian nuclear sites and capability to war missile war back at the US or its allies. And US led conflict and response to Iran.

 

[VivaRevolution]

@VivaRevolution war with Iran will happen by January 1st 2020.

US strikes against Iran either in retaliation of self defense or preemptive strike. I am NOT predicting a mass Iraq type invasion but at the least an aerial campaign. And US led conflict and response to Iran.

Don't we already have a bet like this?

 

[Caudillo]

Don't we already have a bet like this?

No.

 

[Caudillo]

1. Peter Strozk, Lisa Page, Jim Comey, Christopher Steele, Andrew McCabe, Bruce Ohr, prosecutors, other justice department officials, Democratic Presidential Candidates, journalists, academics.
2. At least 2 of these people, or members from these groups will be indicted by Trump's Justice Department.
3. @BarryDillon for; @HereticBD against.
4. Must occur prior to the 2020 election day of voting(November 3, 2020).
5. 6 month AV bet.

Any other predictions? I predict also US led attacks or covert regime change in venezuela and in cuba by January 1st 2021.

If Trump is reelected I predict he will become authortarian towards the end of his 2nd term. And republicans will help him undermine law in an effort to assure a 3rd term for him, or extend his term by the 2 years he claims he is owed, or by running someone like his Son Donald Jr to be a continuation of Trump policy.

I would not be surprised if towards closer 2022 and 2023 Trump has those who "conspired" against him arrested. And those in power purge more people from voting and change laws and court system.

 

[VivaRevolution]

No.

You would have to define this bet with a more concrete criteria. The time frame is fine. Needs a harder definition for what military action is. How many airstrikes, the duration, also needs bet stakes.

 

[Caudillo]

You would have to define this bet with a more concrete criteria. The time frame is fine. Needs a harder definition for what military action is. How many airstrikes, the duration, also needs bet stakes.

1) Air strikes at a minimum that surpass Libya intervention. This is a given. Given that Libya is not as strong as Iran is.

2) US will destroy Iranian nuclear sites and ability to wage war outside its borders.

3) US will destroy a degree of iranian infastructute and military abilities.


That is pretty concrete. You either think war wont happen or you do. I think now you are more nervous since like i predicted the US is doing the same stuff in run up to Iraq. And new sanctions and IRGC is terrorist etc. You fear i may be right. Huh?

I dont think the US will try and do what they did in Iraq ever again. I think Bolton and company are more for regime change and destroying military and dont actually care about nation building. While other more old school neocons thought it could work. Nation building does not have US public support behind it or even Congressional I would bet. But a quick shock and awe 3 month campaign (that is all that is needed to take tehran $+700 billion every year on weapons will do that) will lead to Ayatollah overthrow. )

It is expected that US marines and special forces will be needed to take the capital. But i dont suspect an occupation exceeding 1 year. Americans didnt care when libya, kosovo or bosnia or syria happened.

Many statement from republicans like tom cotton or others seem to suggest their willingness to just desteoy Iran military and then be done with it. Or remove the ayatollah and then leave the country.

A failed state is preferable to these people than Iran in its current form. And a failed states gives you at least 1 decade to work to infilitrate snd covertly build it up. I however dont think Iran will become a failed state on the basis of their Islam differing from Arab sunnis (hanbalis and hanfali) and on the basis of demographics. I think the US will cede Iran to Russian infilitration and Israel would prefer this as Iran would become the equivalent of uzbekistan or azerbaijan under Russian Kremlin economic control and Russian mafia ties. I also think US will wage strikes in syria and iraq and maybe lebanon in defense of Israel. But strikes by US against Lebanon is not part of my bet.

Keep in mind Israel and Iran are both working on economic deals with the Russian led eurasian union. If US planners are smart they will know that the best they can do going forqaed is to abandon nation building and just decpaitate strike hostile nations. Failed states or states without a military and ability to make nukes are preferable to ones that have the ability to.

 

[Lead]

@VivaRevolution war with Iran will happen by January 1st 2020.

@Caudillo- Says war with Iran will happen by January 1st 2020. @VivaRevolution previously said no.

US strikes against Iran either in retaliation of self defense or preemptive strike. I am NOT predicting a mass Iraq type invasion but at the least a severe aerial campaign and destruction of iranian nuclear sites and capability to war missile war back at the US or its allies. And US led conflict and response to Iran.

Don't we already have a bet like this?

No.

Any other predictions? I predict also US led attacks or covert regime change in venezuela and in cuba by January 1st 2021.

If Trump is reelected I predict he will become authortarian towards the end of his 2nd term. And republicans will help him undermine law in an effort to assure a 3rd term for him, or extend his term by the 2 years he claims he is owed, or by running someone like his Son Donald Jr to be a continuation of Trump policy.

I would not be surprised if towards closer 2022 and 2023 Trump has those who "conspired" against him arrested. And those in power purge more people from voting and change laws and court system.

You would have to define this bet with a more concrete criteria. The time frame is fine. Needs a harder definition for what military action is. How many airstrikes, the duration, also needs bet stakes.

1) Air strikes at a minimum that surpass Libya intervention. This is a given. Given that Libya is not as strong as Iran is.

2) US will destroy Iranian nuclear sites and ability to wage war outside its borders.

3) US will destroy a degree of iranian infastructute and military abilities.


That is pretty concrete. You either think war wont happen or you do. I think now you are more nervous since like i predicted the US is doing the same stuff in run up to Iraq. And new sanctions and IRGC is terrorist etc. You fear i may be right. Huh?

I dont think the US will try and do what they did in Iraq ever again. I think Bolton and company are more for regime change and destroying military and dont actually care about nation building. While other more old school neocons thought it could work. Nation building does not have US public support behind it or even Congressional I would bet. But a quick shock and awe 3 month campaign (that is all that is needed to take tehran $+700 billion every year on weapons will do that) will lead to Ayatollah overthrow. )

It is expected that US marines and special forces will be needed to take the capital. But i dont suspect an occupation exceeding 1 year. Americans didnt care when libya, kosovo or bosnia or syria happened.

Many statement from republicans like tom cotton or others seem to suggest their willingness to just desteoy Iran military and then be done with it. Or remove the ayatollah and then leave the country.

A failed state is preferable to these people than Iran in its current form. And a failed states gives you at least 1 decade to work to infilitrate snd covertly build it up. I however dont think Iran will become a failed state on the basis of their Islam differing from Arab sunnis (hanbalis and hanfali) and on the basis of demographics. I think the US will cede Iran to Russian infilitration and Israel would prefer this as Iran would become the equivalent of uzbekistan or azerbaijan under Russian Kremlin economic control and Russian mafia ties. I also think US will wage strikes in syria and iraq and maybe lebanon in defense of Israel. But strikes by US against Lebanon is not part of my bet.

Keep in mind Israel and Iran are both working on economic deals with the Russian led eurasian union. If US planners are smart they will know that the best they can do going forqaed is to abandon nation building and just decpaitate strike hostile nations. Failed states or states without a military and ability to make nukes are preferable to ones that have the ability to.

Just noting this now. General criteria is accounts with over 1000 posts or at least one year old. Your account has been around a month.

 

[Caudillo]

Just noting this now. General criteria is accounts with over 1000 posts or at least one year old. Your account has been around a month.

more rules and discrimination.