The War Room Bet Thread V3

[LMP]

You'd just be replacing one pro-Trump av with another

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

@Lead I approve this bet.

5 years is a little long for a bet I'm not very interested in. I can do 2 months, though. Does that work?

 

[waiguoren]

5 years is a little long for a bet I'm not very interested in. I can do 2 months, though. Does that work?

How about one year?

 

[Lead]

5 years is a little long for a bet I'm not very interested in. I can do 2 months, though. Does that work?

How about one year?

I already was on the fence about that account. It’s about a year old account. Let’s go with 6 months max on this if he goes higher than 2.

 

[waiguoren]

I already was on the fence about that account. It’s about a year old account. Let’s go with 6 months max on this if he goes higher than 2.

@PolarBearPaulVarelans

6 months, ok?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

@PolarBearPaulVarelans

6 months, ok?

2 months. Again, I don't feel very strongly about this bet. It was more of a "eh, what the hell? Why not?" when you proposed it.

 

[waiguoren]

1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

 

[waiguoren]

@Lead

 

[Jack V Savage]

2 months. Again, I don't feel very strongly about this bet. It was more of a "eh, what the hell? Why not?" when you proposed it.

Yeah, ideally, the point of making bets here should be to help calibrate our thinking, which is utterly defeated by angle-shooting and ridiculous terms.

 

[Jack V Savage]

BTW, though I didn't pull the trigger on wai's bet offer regarding Trump's RCP average, we can note that he was wrong, which should affect his thinking (again, that's what the bet thread is for).

 

[Fawlty]

Still offering bet:

Bernard Sanders will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president. Me: for You: against.

I accept for a 4 month screen name bet (or whatever the name change cooldown timer is, I believe 120 days). Loser must acquire Plat status, if not Plat, to fulfill the terms. @.Lead.

Ducking guy quacks and ducks.

 

[Limbo Pete]

BTW, though I didn't pull the trigger on wai's bet offer regarding Trump's RCP average, we can note that he was wrong, which should affect his thinking (again, that's what the bet thread is for).

What?
Impossible!!!

 

[Fawlty]

Yeah, ideally, the point of making bets here should be DOMINATION

I agree, on bended knee.

 

[waiguoren]

2 months. Again, I don't feel very strongly about this bet. It was more of a "eh, what the hell? Why not?" when you proposed it.

You projected massive confidence until I offered the bet. Classic grandstanding on your part.

 

[waiguoren]

Yeah, ideally, the point of making bets here should be to help calibrate our thinking, which is utterly defeated by angle-shooting and ridiculous terms.

Angle-shooting and ridiculous terms...hmmm...


#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage


This moaning on your part looks like saltiness due to your loss of champion status.

BTW, though I didn't pull the trigger on wai's bet offer regarding Trump's RCP average, we can note that he was wrong, which should affect his thinking (again, that's what the bet thread is for).

Notice how my betting record is 6-1 and soon to be 8-1. It seems that I am almost never wrong when it comes to propositions that I actually bet on. Think about that.

As for the RCP bet: I was correct on the core issue. Trump got a hefty boost from the Barr letter and hit the maximum of his presidency in multiple polls including The Hill/Harris X and NPR/Marist. In Rasmussen he did only slightly worse, hitting his highest level (52%) since inauguration. The RCP average missed my expected level (45.0%) due to RCP's phase-out algorithm and the timing of poll releases. So yes my thinking has been affected (RCP average is not a good indicator of level of support within +-1.5% margin), but not in the way that I suspect you think it should be.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

Sounds good.

You projected massive confidence until I offered the bet. Classic grandstanding on your part.

Not sure why you feel the need to talk trash and outright lie when I have been amicable about the whole thing.

As I told you from the start, I am very confident Sanders doesn't win the nomination. I'm not confident in the least that Biden does, and mentioned the bet will most likely be a push.

 

[waiguoren]

Sounds good.



Not sure why you feel the need to talk trash and outright lie when I have been amicable about the whole thing.

As I told you from the start, I am very confident Sanders doesn't win the nomination. I'm not confident in the least that Biden does, and mentioned the bet will most likely be a push.

There was no lie. You projected massive confidence that Sanders would not be the nominee. You also wrote:

If any straight old white guy is going to win, it's probably Biden

If we combine these two statements, you should be extremely confident (i.e., "feel very strongly") that you will not lose the bet.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Sounds good.



Not sure why you feel the need to talk trash and outright lie when I have been amicable about the whole thing.

As I told you from the start, I am very confident Sanders doesn't win the nomination. I'm not confident in the least that Biden does, and mentioned the bet will most likely be a push.

You might not be familiar, but this is how Wai works. P4P most arrogant guy to grace the bet thread. He doesn't seem capable of a friendly wager, and is a poor sport regardless of outcome.
I legit think he might have aspergers.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

You might not be familiar, but this is how Wai works. P4P most arrogant guy to grace the bet thread. He doesn't seem capable of a friendly wager, and is a poor sport regardless of outcome.
I legit think he might have aspergers.

Ah, thanks for the heads-up. This was my first interaction of any kind with him.

 

[Lead]

1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. @PolarBearPaulVarelans Biden, @waiguoren - Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. Two months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.

Sounds good.

I know you made the original post but I need you to quote and give a final okay @waiguoren