The War Room Bet Thread V3

[JamesRussler]

@JameRussler

Can we call this one?

#27. @HomerThompson v. @JamesRussler
1 & 2. 2018 Midterm Election results- James wins if (1) Republicans retain at least 218 seats in the House and (2) gain net 9 seats in the Senate (i.e. 60 seats total). Homer wins if (1) Democrats reach 218 seats or more in the House and (2) lose under 8 seats in the Senate.
3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months (tentatively 11/07/18-01/06/19)
6. In the situation, neither of the two events happen, the bet is null
Winner: HomerThompson

Sure!

 

[Lead]

Can we call this one guys? I'm not certain when the SoS calls it:


#37. @waiguoren v. @Jack V Savage
1. Democrat Katie Hill will defeat Republican Steve Knight in the 2018 House of Representatives race for California's 25th Congressional district.
2. @Jack V Savage for, @waiguoren against
3. When the California Secretary of State certifies the results of the 2018 Congressional elections.
4. Sig bet
5. 3 months

 

[Lead]

#38. @SBJJ v. @GOATER
1. Beto O'Rourke wins Texas in the 2018 midterms
2. GOATER- for, SBJJ- against
3. 11/07/2018 (tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
Winner: SBJJ

 

[JamesRussler]

#38. @SBJJ v. @GOATER
1. Beto O'Rourke wins Texas in the 2018 midterms
2. GOATER- for, SBJJ- against
3. 11/07/2018 (tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
Winner: SBJJ

Holy fuck. 6 months? That's a lifetime in Sherdog months.

 

[Lead]

Holy fuck. 6 months? That's a lifetime in Sherdog months.

Look at some of the open bets remaining in the OP. There's one for five years

 

[Limbo Pete]

Obviously, but because of bullshit yellow cards I can't edit it

 

[Jack V Savage]

@Jack V Savage

Also, Silver's Senate forecast was pretty clearly biased in the Democrats' favor. His forecast said there was about a 92% chance that the Republican net gain would be < 4 seats. In fact, they are going to gain four seats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo

What do you think caused a bias?

 

[Limbo Pete]

What do you think caused a bias?

He'g got no room to shit on Silver after going whole hog and predicting the GOP would keep the House
Seems like a wee bit bigger of a botched prediction imo.

 

[Jack V Savage]

He'g got no room to shit on Silver after going whole hog and predicting the GOP would keep the House
Seems like a wee bit bigger of a botched prediction imo.

He's not even right on it (the GOP hasn't picked up four Senate seats last I've seen). But just wondering if he's positing political bias or some process error that had a systematic effect.

 

[senri]

Don't worry about it. I just wanted a win.

#32. @Lead v. @JamesRussler
1. Democrats will win 209 seats or more in the 2018 Midterm Election
2. Lead- for, JamesRussler- against
3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
*Party seats are determined by who caucuses with a party if there are independent candidates that win.
Winner: Lead

Mmmmm how wonderful. This magnifies your aroma Mr. Lead....

 

[waiguoren]

Can we call this one guys? I'm not certain when the SoS calls it:


#37. @waiguoren v. @Jack V Savage
1. Democrat Katie Hill will defeat Republican Steve Knight in the 2018 House of Representatives race for California's 25th Congressional district.
2. @Jack V Savage for, @waiguoren against
3. When the California Secretary of State certifies the results of the 2018 Congressional elections.
4. Sig bet
5. 3 months

Let's wait for the official result.

 

[Lead]

Let's wait for the official result.

Okay, do you know when that's usually done. I'm not familiar with that process.

 

[waiguoren]

He's not even right on it (the GOP hasn't picked up four Senate seats last I've seen). But just wondering if he's positing political bias or some process error that had a systematic effect.

Ahhhhh it's GOP +3. I was counting McSally as a pickup but it's a hold.

Nate Silver's forecast said there was about a 85.2% chance that the Republican net gain would be < 3 seats. In fact, they are going to gain three seats.

I think it's a consequence of Silver continuing to underestimate the Trump effect. Let's never forget that Silver gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination when Trump was leading in the polls. Let's not forget Silver's declaration that "Clinton probably finished Trump off last night" after one of the debates. Trump is responsible for the the Florida pickup, the Arizona hold, the Texas hold, and possibly the Braun hold. [Responsible in the marginal sense.] He also nearly got Tester unseated. The enthusiasm+numbers the guy generates at this rallies are driving Republican enthusiasm in key parts on the country. Silver continually underestimates Trump and it's likely to bite him in the ass again.

 

[waiguoren]

you said that the odds of Knight winning were ~100% and that the bet was already over a few days ago

The bet was already over a few days ago. You already won it, and Hill's chance of winning was ~100%. Sorting out why that is the case will probably haunt me for years to come.

 

[waiguoren]

Seems like a wee bit bigger of a botched prediction imo.

Bigger than giving Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination?

 

[SBJJ]

Congratulations to @Jack V Savage !

Here is the reason I took the bet:


California uses a top-two primary system. In the primary for this contest, Knight---as an incumbent(!)---received significantly more votes than all the Democrats combined. In my mind, that is very powerful evidence pointing to a Knight win.

In fact, I still can't wrap my head around the provisional result. It would be one thing if Knight had some major scandal since the primary or if Hill had run some great campaign, but neither are true. The best they came up with on scandals was that Knight denied taking NRA money when in fact his campaign received a couple of small donations. Knight was an LAPD officer for 18 years. As for Hill, she is very young and significantly to the "left" of the district.

In 2016, Knight beat a much stronger candidate there (Caforio) by 4.2% the same year that Hillary Clinton won the district by 7%!

A big part of Hill's strategy was to turn out the youth vote, but my research indicated that the college student population in this district is quite small.

I also communicated with people in the district who were not impressed with Hill and did not expect her to win.

I'll keep looking for explanations of this strange outcome. In lieu of that, it might be enough to turn me into a conspiracy theorist.


============

As a side note, @SBJJ is a heavy favorite to hand Jack his first loss in two months. I wonder who Jack would rather have lost to between the two of us.

Again, congratulations to Jack.

Shit. So I’m officially taking his scalp first? Unofficialy will be 3-0 in my first 3 bets. Not bad for someone who just started jumping into the bet thread

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

Shit. So I’m officially taking his scalp first? Unofficialy will be 3-0 in my first 3 bets. Not bad for someone who just started jumping into the bet thread

They call that beginner's luck. Braggart.

 

[SBJJ]

Tempted to join the fun, but I feel like I have some obligation to be gracious in victory.



Thanks.



This is somewhat disappointing. I think if you had a model, and it gave you the kind of certainty that you were expressing, it would be definitively proved to be poor. As it is, your qualitative "model" should be considered to be poor (I could have told you before that talking to people in the district about their impressions would not be of any use, that the campaign would know exactly how many people of every demographic were in the district, and that if the primary were predictive that would be figured into Silver's approach). But anyway, thanks for the explanation.



I don't think he's a favorite, though it's going to be close. My general thinking is that GDP growth is pretty unpredictable, but I think the prediction was higher than we should expect from any random period *and* that we're facing some headwinds, while I think he's motivated by nothing more than hackery combined with the foolish belief that GDP growth is generally a reflection of presidential performance. I'd rather lose that one, as it reflects good news if I do.

Jack. I’ve offered you ANY bet many times if u can quote me EVER posting what you accuse me of saying(Presidential performance=GDP) and you continually run when I call you out on it

Seriously, stop lying about this. I basically ignore you for the most part now because you are extremely dishonest as of late

Once again. I will bet you anything that you are LYING in your post when you accuse me of saying this. ANYTHING. We can do a full account bet(SELF BAN). We can do a 6 month self imposed ban. Anything u like

 

[SBJJ]

Holy fuck. 6 months? That's a lifetime in Sherdog months.

I’m not going to hold him to it. When I first offered the bet it was iffy. But by the time we both accepted the bet it was clear Beto Had lost

I’ll take the win. But that’s all I need

Just sayin. I never made Polish abide by his losing bet also. I’ll just take the wins

I’m not in it to rub it in. It should be fun

Just like the actual MMA bet thread, I never rubbed any winnings in if I disagreed with a poster. Always encouraged other bettors on through those cold streaks.

 

[SBJJ]

Correction: I am 2-1 against Silver. In my bet with @m52nickerson I defeated Silver in two separate contests.



He doesn't consider early vote at all. That's how I beat Silver twice already.

In this contest I was viewing the primary vote as a form of "early vote". The final results are really bizarre when viewed in that light and in context of what Knight was able to do in 2016.



I don't see @SBJJ as being of "subnormal intellect". I think it was a foolish bet of you to take, so maybe you should be more cautious about labeling other people that way.

Sadly, when Jack gets countered in any meaningful way this is what he resorts to. Insults and insults. Calls people morons and liars and gets reduced to creepy stalking of those posters he believes make him look foolish in debates. I mean his stalking of Inga really is borderline psychotic. It amazes me so many posters put up with this kind of behavior. It just is SO unhealthy and babying him is not healthy or helping him. I’d say he’s in the bottom 5% of posters in the entire WR. And I really see him going down the Homer Highway once a more balanced approach is taken to him. I called out Homers behavior long before it became popular to. I understand Jack has some friends in high places in the WR. But that really is no excuse to let him act in such a childish and almost psychotic manner

I repeatedly see him call people liars and dishonest yet he’s lied about me in the last 2 pages. I’ve continually called him out on this lie by asking for ANY bet on it. He usually tucks his pussy lips and runs shortly thereafter

He knows he’s losing our bet but will continue to post his BS because he can never admit to even a small mistake. And I’m sure even after being called out on his dishonesty here for probably the 5th time he will just wait a few weeks and still post this dishonest dribble