The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Fawlty]

The funny thing about this post is that all 100+ Sherdoggers who have seen your ugly, fat ass selfie understand exactly why you act this way.

"Bullshit yellow cards"

lulz

You're a loser, kiddo. A born loser.

 

[waiguoren]

"Bullshit yellow cards"

lulz

You're a loser, kiddo. A born loser.

Your betting record is 0-2. You are literally a loser.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

Lotta hostility up in here.

 

[Fawlty]

Your betting record is 0-2. You are literally a loser.

Listen, Wack. I know you're anxious about your inevitable cherry-popping ceremony tomorrow evening. I know you want desperately to compensate for your coming loss, but you ought to have more respect for your new overlord. I just offered you O/U on +38, and now you try to trick me into taking the O/U on +23? Do you think I am a fool? Apparently, yes. In that event, prepare for this "fool" to deliver the mightiest of shivs right to the guts of you and your pasty vampire idol, the highly overrated N. Silver.
There is only room for one GOAT around here, and there is no power in this verse that shall stop me. Kicking and screaming, you will finally realize that the relentless battering of victories I have compiled is purely the result of predictive and analytic genius.

You have no model. You are a phony.

 

[waiguoren]

Listen, Wack. I know you're anxious about your inevitable cherry-popping ceremony tomorrow evening. I know you want desperately to compensate for your coming loss, but you ought to have more respect for your new overlord. I just offered you O/U on +38, and now you try to trick me into taking the O/U on +23? Do you think I am a fool? Apparently, yes. In that event, prepare for this "fool" to deliver the mightiest of shivs right to the guts of you and your pasty vampire idol, the highly overrated N. Silver.
There is only room for one GOAT around here, and there is no power in this verse that shall stop me. Kicking and screaming, you will finally realize that the relentless battering of victories I have compiled is purely the result of predictive and analytic genius.

4-1, baby.

Maybe after you can win even one single time, you will have some standing to criticize a proven winner.

 

[Fawlty]

4-1, baby.

Maybe after you can win even one single time, you will have some standing to criticize a proven winner.

No model, not a professional gambler.

A liar, and a phony.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Lotta hostility up in here.

Tempted to join the fun, but I feel like I have some obligation to be gracious in victory.

Congratulations to @Jack V Savage !

Thanks.

Here is the reason I took the bet:

California uses a top-two primary system. In the primary for this contest, Knight---as an incumbent(!)---received significantly more votes than all the Democrats combined. In my mind, that is very powerful evidence pointing to a Knight win.

...

In 2016, Knight beat a much stronger candidate there (Caforio) by 4.2% the same year that Hillary Clinton won the district by 7%!

A big part of Hill's strategy was to turn out the youth vote, but my research indicated that the college student population in this district is quite small.

I also communicated with people in the district who were not impressed with Hill and did not expect her to win.

I'll keep looking for explanations of this strange outcome. In lieu of that, it might be enough to turn me into a conspiracy theorist.

This is somewhat disappointing. I think if you had a model, and it gave you the kind of certainty that you were expressing, it would be definitively proved to be poor. As it is, your qualitative "model" should be considered to be poor (I could have told you before that talking to people in the district about their impressions would not be of any use, that the campaign would know exactly how many people of every demographic were in the district, and that if the primary were predictive that would be figured into Silver's approach). But anyway, thanks for the explanation.

As a side note, @SBJJ is a heavy favorite to hand Jack his first loss in two months. I wonder who Jack would rather have lost to between the two of us.

I don't think he's a favorite, though it's going to be close. My general thinking is that GDP growth is pretty unpredictable, but I think the prediction was higher than we should expect from any random period *and* that we're facing some headwinds, while I think he's motivated by nothing more than hackery combined with the foolish belief that GDP growth is generally a reflection of presidential performance. I'd rather lose that one, as it reflects good news if I do.

 

[waiguoren]

if the primary was predictive that would be figured into Silver's approach).

This is very disappointing of you. Silver has botched many races due to failure to consider important factors including early voting. You're just assuming that he is offering the best possible predictive model. Very naive imo.

I don't think he's a favorite, though it's going to be close. My general thinking is that GDP growth is pretty unpredictable, but I think the prediction was higher than we should expect from any random period *and* that we're facing some headwinds, while I think he's motivated by nothing more than hackery combined with the foolish belief that GDP growth is generally a reflection of presidential performance. I'd rather lose that one, as it reflects good news if I do.

Let's have a sig bet that you lose that bet to him.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

Tempted to join the fun, but I feel like I have some obligation to be gracious in victory.

Kudos. I consider sportsmanship to be a pretty good sign of character.

 

[Jack V Savage]

This is very disappointing of you. Silver has botched many races due to failure to consider important factors including early voting. You're just assuming that he is offering the best possible predictive model. Very naive imo.

I've been following Silver since he was writing about baseball. I think you badly underestimate him. Also, too bad Homer isn't here to correct my failure to use the subjunctive mood there.

Let's have a sig bet that you lose that bet to him.

I'd put my chances at around 55%. Not something I normally bet on (in this setting--obviously in ordinary settings it depends on the odds you get). I said at the time that I generally prefer a higher level of certainty.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Kudos. I consider sportsmanship to be a pretty good sign of character.

Thanks. I'm not saying I'm not going to mention it. The sig will be good, I hope (haven't come up with it yet). But I'm just keeping it to a minimum.

 

[waiguoren]

I've been following Silver since he was writing about baseball. I think you badly underestimate him. Also, too bad Homer isn't here to correct my failure to use the subjunctive mood there.

You didn't respond to my point. Your comment assumed that Silver's model is the best possible predictive model, which is absurd.

I'd put my chances at around 55%.

I'll put your chances at 25%.

 

[waiguoren]

I've been following Silver since he was writing about baseball. I think you badly underestimate him.

I'm 1-1 against him.



@Lead, I see you in here. You said my dubs would be removed after the midterms

 

[Jack V Savage]

You didn't respond to my point. Your comment assumed that Silver's model is the best possible predictive model, which is absurd.

I'll put your chances at 25%.

I don't assume that his model isn't the best possible predictive model. I do assume that if there's some obvious factor that can be shown to be meaningful, he'd notice it and take it into account. I feel like this is a thing laypeople do to people in a lot of fields: See something obvious that *of course* someone who does it professionally would be well aware of and then point it out as if it's an important insight. See the difference? I think it's almost certain that there are many factors that matter that Silver doesn't take into account, but I don't think any of them are that obvious.

OK. It's funny because IMO SBJJ is of subnormal intellect. You asked me if I'd feel worse losing that one, and I wouldn't really. But what it bother you if that kind of guy were the one to beat the champ? It would like if Jon Jones lost to Corey Anderson.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I'm 1-1 against him.

@Lead, I see you in here. You said my dubs would be removed after the midterms

Yeah, but I think your win was a coinflip, while in your loss, you said that the odds of Knight winning were ~100% and that the bet was already over a few days ago. It's hardly conclusive, but I think looking at the totality of your disagreements, he's ahead of you.

 

[waiguoren]

Correction: I am 2-1 against Silver. In my bet with @m52nickerson I defeated Silver in two separate contests.

I think it's almost certain that there are many factors that matter that Silver doesn't take into account, but I don't think any of them are that obvious.

He doesn't consider early vote at all. That's how I beat Silver twice already.

In this contest I was viewing the primary vote as a form of "early vote". The final results are really bizarre when viewed in that light and in context of what Knight was able to do in 2016.

It's funny because IMO SBJJ is of subnormal intellect. But what it bother you if that kind of guy were the one to beat the champ? It would like if Jon Jones lost to Corey Anderson.

I don't see @SBJJ as being of "subnormal intellect". I think it was a foolish bet of you to take, so maybe you should be more cautious about labeling other people that way.

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage

Also, Silver's Senate forecast was pretty clearly biased in the Democrats' favor. His forecast said there was about a 92% chance that the Republican net gain would be < 4 seats. In fact, they are going to gain four seats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[Lead]

I'm 1-1 against him.



@Lead, I see you in here. You said my dubs would be removed after the midterms

I was mobile pwnt. I'm catching up on a few things. No worries man.

 

[Lead]

@JamesRussler

Can we call this one?

#27. @HomerThompson v. @JamesRussler
1 & 2. 2018 Midterm Election results- James wins if (1) Republicans retain at least 218 seats in the House and (2) gain net 9 seats in the Senate (i.e. 60 seats total). Homer wins if (1) Democrats reach 218 seats or more in the House and (2) lose under 8 seats in the Senate.
3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months (tentatively 11/07/18-01/06/19)
6. In the situation, neither of the two events happen, the bet is null
Winner: HomerThompson

 

[Lead]

Okay @Lead you won fair and square. It was an avatar bet right? What's my new av gonna be?

Don't worry about it. I just wanted a win.

#32. @Lead v. @JamesRussler
1. Democrats will win 209 seats or more in the 2018 Midterm Election
2. Lead- for, JamesRussler- against
3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
*Party seats are determined by who caucuses with a party if there are independent candidates that win.
Winner: Lead