The War Room Bet Thread V3

[BarryDillon]

Just a slight adjustment because of the way the rankings are done (60 days to 2 months)

@Fawlty v. @BarryDillon
1. One of the following candidates will win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 Presidential Election:
2. @Fawlty - Joe Biden @BarryDillon - Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders
3. Official Announcement at the 2020 Democratic National Convention (7/16/20)
4. Avatar bet.
5. 2 months

I need you both to quote this post and give your final okay. If I don't have both of your approvals before the debate tonight, I will ask both of you again since new information arose since the bet was placed.

I accept.

 

[Fawlty]

Just a slight adjustment because of the way the rankings are done (60 days to 2 months)

@Fawlty v. @BarryDillon
1. One of the following candidates will win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 Presidential Election:
2. @Fawlty - Joe Biden @BarryDillon - Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders
3. Official Announcement at the 2020 Democratic National Convention (7/16/20)
4. Avatar bet.
5. 2 months

I need you both to quote this post and give your final okay. If I don't have both of your approvals before the debate tonight, I will ask both of you again since new information arose since the bet was placed.

Good to go.

 

[Lead]

I have no idea how Biden is polling so well, but we did elect Trump. So we are dumb, just keep that in mind.

Just a slight adjustment because of the way the rankings are done (60 days to 2 months)

@Fawlty v. @BarryDillon
1. One of the following candidates will win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 Presidential Election:
2. @Fawlty - Joe Biden @BarryDillon - Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders
3. Official Announcement at the 2020 Democratic National Convention (7/16/20)
4. Avatar bet.
5. 2 months

I need you both to quote this post and give your final okay. If I don't have both of your approvals before the debate tonight, I will ask both of you again since new information arose since the bet was placed.

I accept.

Good to go.

It’s official.

As a side note, what do each of you think your odds are? I don’t really think Bernie has a realistic chance anymore but pairing him with Warren is fair cause they are in similar lanes and I could see Warren being the nominee. Gun to my head though, I’d pick Biden for that bet.

 

[sickc0d3r]

It’s official.

As a side note, what do each of you think your odds are? I don’t really think Bernie has a realistic chance anymore but pairing him with Warren is fair cause they are in similar lanes and I could see Warren being the nominee. Gun to my head though, I’d pick Biden for that bet.

I still expect Biden to fade, so I don't think it's a lock at all, but Biden has to be favored over those two combined. Maybe something like -140?

 

[Lead]

I still expect Biden to fade, so I don't think it's a lock at all, but Biden has to be favored over those two combined. Maybe something like -140?

I’m bad at using betting lines to express my thoughts but close to that range I guess. -180 maybe. I definitely am keeping it even more because of Warren then Bernie however.

 

[waiguoren]

As a side note, what do each of you think your odds are? I don’t really think Bernie has a realistic chance anymore but pairing him with Warren is fair cause they are in similar lanes and I could see Warren being the nominee. Gun to my head though, I’d pick Biden for that bet.

Why? Three new polls out today have Sanders ahead of Warren and Harris. Don't understand why you would count Sanders out so easily. He has the largest donor group, the most cash on hand, a very high floor, a clear policy agenda that most Democrats agree with, and is the clear #2 right now.

 

[Lead]

Why? Three new polls out today have Sanders ahead of Warren and Harris. Don't understand why you would count Sanders out so easily. He has the largest donor group, the most cash on hand, a very high floor, a clear policy agenda that most Democrats agree with, and is the clear #2 right now.

I just think he benefited from a small candidate pool in 2016 and it’s not going to get significantly better in 2020 with a competitive field like this.

 

[waiguoren]

I just think he benefited from a small candidate pool in 2016 and it’s not going to get significantly better in 2020 with a competitive field like this.

That's it?

Do you think Biden is the most likely nominee?

 

[sickc0d3r]

I’m bad at using betting lines to express my thoughts but close to that range I guess. -180 maybe. I definitely am keeping it even more because of Warren then Bernie however.

Agreed about Warren. She’s proving to be the bigger threat and she’s smartly adorning herself with the mixed market label rather than “socialism” lately.

 

[Fawlty]

It’s official.

As a side note, what do each of you think your odds are? I don’t really think Bernie has a realistic chance anymore but pairing him with Warren is fair cause they are in similar lanes and I could see Warren being the nominee. Gun to my head though, I’d pick Biden for that bet.

I think I'm a small favorite but attempts to justify it are full of holes and what-ifs (like if Warren drops out late, do her supporters actually go to Bernie, and in high enough numbers?). All three are health risks too, which is kind of spicy. Biden is polling just under an important threshold where that person usually wins the nomination, so he's strong but vulnerable. Enough that I wouldn't pick him against the field, but when you drop off Harris/Buttigieg/Booker, it feels like he beats the remaining field.

 

[Lead]

That's it?

Do you think Biden is the most likely nominee?

I mean, if I had to pick one out of the field, I’d pick him. I’m not completely confident in him to make it obviously. I have more confidence Biden would win compared to Bernie by a decent amount.

 

[waiguoren]

I mean, if I had to pick one out of the field, I’d pick him. I’m not completely confident in him to make it obviously. I have more confidence Biden would win compared to Bernie by a decent amount.

Why would you pick Sleepy Joe? I don't think he's among the top five most likely candidates, and I think tonight might change your view on this.

 

[Lead]

Why would you pick Sleepy Joe? I don't think he's among the top five most likely candidates, and I think tonight might change your view on this.

I didn’t get to see it all tonight. My comment was more about Bernie’s chances than Biden. I don’t think there’s a solid pick of who wins nomination but Bernie isn’t the one I believe comes out on top.

Also, I thought you were using politicians full names or is it only the names they give themselves?

 

[JDragon]

I didn’t get to see it all tonight. My comment was more about Bernie’s chances than Biden. I don’t think there’s a solid pick of who wins nomination but Bernie isn’t the one I believe comes out on top.

Also, I thought you were using politicians full names or is it only the names they give themselves?

Slippin' Wai

 

[waiguoren]

I didn’t get to see it all tonight. My comment was more about Bernie’s chances than Biden. I don’t think there’s a solid pick of who wins nomination but Bernie isn’t the one I believe comes out on top.

I wrote that post just now. I was referring to tonight's debate, not last night's debate. Again, I think your appraisal of Sleepy Joe's chances might chance after tonight.

The essential features of this race, as I have been writing for six months are: the divided nature of the field, and Sanders's high floor, and proportional delegate allocation. Notice how after all the attacks on Sanders, he's still in a solid 2nd place. Notice also how almost none of the candidates appear to have "take off" potential, with the exception of Buttigieg.

My current bets:

Placed April 15 | Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee |+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 | Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee |+550| Risk: $1818.18

Also, I thought you were using politicians full names or is it only the names they give themselves?

When writing full names, I am attempting to use legal names. So I will never write "Bernie Sanders" but instead "Bernard Sanders".

In horserace analysis, when attempting to draw attention to a particular feature of a candidate, I will sometimes use nicknames. In this case, I think you are overestimating Sleepy Joe's chances, as he really is too "sleepy" to win this in addition to being an unmotivated gaffe machine.

Slippin' Wai

Mr. Dragon, please read my response before rushing to judgment! Thank you, kind sir.

 

[Lead]

I wrote that post just now. I was referring to tonight's debate, not last night's debate. Again, I think your appraisal of Sleepy Joe's chances might chance after tonight.

The essential features of this race, as I have been writing for six months are: the divided nature of the field, and Sanders's high floor, and proportional delegate allocation. Notice how after all the attacks on Sanders, he's still in a solid 2nd place. Notice also how almost none of the candidates appear to have "take off" potential, with the exception of Buttigieg.

My current bets:

Placed April 15 | Bernard Sanders to be Democratic nominee |+410| Risk: $2439.02
Placed May 19 | Peter Buttigieg to be Democratic nominee |+550| Risk: $1818.18


When writing full names, I am attempting to use legal names. So I will never write "Bernie Sanders" but instead "Bernard Sanders".

In horserace analysis, when attempting to draw attention to a particular feature of a candidate, I will sometimes use nicknames. In this case, I think you are overestimating Sleepy Joe's chances, as he really is too "sleepy" to win this in addition to being an unmotivated gaffe machine.


Mr. Dragon, please read my response before rushing to judgement! Thank you, kind sir.

So right now I think challenging Bernie’s chance and you are challenging Biden’s. You already have a bet in place if either will be the Democratic nominee. Do you still feel as confident in that bet right now as when it was made?

 

[waiguoren]

So right now I think challenging Bernie’s chance and you are challenging Biden’s. You already have a bet in place if either will be the Democratic nominee. Do you still feel as confident in that bet right now as when it was made?

Yes. I think there's a good chance you will see it my way after tonight, assuming you watch the debate.

 

[Lead]

Yes. I think there's a good chance you will see it my way after tonight, assuming you watch the debate.

Yea my schedule is freed up for this one. I forgot they were this week until yesterday morning so I missed the first hour of last night.

 

[waiguoren]

Predict in one hand and shit in the other and let me know which one fills up first.

I think if tonight goes even passingly for him, he's a lock. It's (primary) almost a formality at this point, even.

Let's do a sig/AV bet on it, eh?

 

[Lead]

@waiguoren

I watched and still don’t see it. Biden has a much stronger chance of winning this than Bernie.