The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Gregolian]

Come on, honey. If you're going the dishonest route you must at least keep your story straight. You used to claim it was three months, and now you're claiming six.


That's going to earn you a Welch.

I added your most recent absence to the original one. Stop hiding every time you lose.

 

[waiguoren]

I added your most recent absence to the original one. Stop hiding every time you lose.

What was the "most recent one" you're referring to? Did you make something up again?

The clock is ticking! Will Greg find an answer? I'm betting no!

 

[Peteyandjia]

I need both of you to quote this post and give an okay in here for it to be official. I'm assuming that's what Wai was trying to do here. Whether it's official in here is up to you guys:

@waiguoren v. @Peteyandjia
1. Either Elizabeth Warren or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
2. @Peteyandjia - for @waiguoren - against
3. At the time of the 2020 Democratic convention
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month

@waiguoren

 

[Fawlty]

@waiguoren

I like Waig's side of the bet a little more, but this is a cool one because there's tons of uncertainty and intuition at play. Neat bet.

 

[Lead]

@waiguoren, I still need you to quote the bet above and give a yes as well. Then it will be official.

 

[Lead]

I like Waig's side of the bet a little more, but this is a cool one because there's tons of uncertainty and intuition at play. Neat bet.

Yea, it definitely outshines most of the ones currently open. I want to say the odds are fairly even but with 20 candidates.... hard to tell. I think Petey has the edge but I wouldn't have the confidence to bet on something that close in my head.

 

[Lead]

@waiguoren

If the idea is to wait to reply until after the debate, I’m going to reask for Peteys okay again. I don’t like having these points of limbo where one poster is in and the other isn’t.

 

[waiguoren]

@waiguoren

If the idea is to wait to reply until after the debate, I’m going to reask for Peteys okay again. I don’t like having these points of limbo where one poster is in and the other isn’t.

That’s not the idea.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Yea, it definitely outshines most of the ones currently open. I want to say the odds are fairly even but with 20 candidates.... hard to tell. I think Petey has the edge but I wouldn't have the confidence to bet on something that close in my head.

Bovada has Biden at +200 and Warren at +700. Combine the implied odds (no vig adjustment, though), you get 46%. I don't think the market is perfectly efficient, but 50/50 is probably a pretty good estimate. At this point in the race, I'd probably rather take wai's side. It's funny, though, because Wai isn't betting based on a sophisticated understanding of the issue; he's just making the same mistake (underestimating the chances of candidates who aren't currently doing that well in polling) about a different couple of candidates.

 

[Lead]

That’s not the idea.

Maybe I should’ve avoided the implied intention there but I’m just staying here there’s a window here of the one person giving an okay with the other not before it gets reset. If the debate goes down and you give an okay, I’m going to reconfirm with petey again if it comes to that.

 

[Lead]

Bovada has Biden at +200 and Warren at +700. Combine the implied odds (no vig adjustment, though), you get 46%. I don't think the market is perfectly efficient, but 50/50 is probably a pretty good estimate. At this point in the race, I'd probably rather take wai's side. It's funny, though, because Wai isn't betting based on a sophisticated understanding of the issue; he's just making the same mistake (underestimating the chances of candidates who aren't currently doing that well in polling) about a different couple of candidates.

Didn’t look into it. 46% is pretty split. The other open bets down feel close to that even.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Didn’t look into it. 46% is pretty split. The other open bets down feel close to that even.

There are a couple on whether Trump will win, which is similar from an odds perspective (and I think similar in reality). Don't know the odds on impeachment, but that seems like a pretty close one. But, yeah, most are not really close.

 

[Lead]

There are a couple on whether Trump will win, which is similar from an odds perspective (and I think similar in reality). Don't know the odds on impeachment, but that seems like a pretty close one. But, yeah, most are not really close.

Yea, I just generally think the presidential winner bets are a little bland and boring.

There's only the one impeachment bet with me and Huntermania which I would agree is still could to go either way. The others are for Trump to be removed from office which I still think is far far less probable.

The company A bet was interesting by doing a pool with more than one bettor.

 

[waiguoren]

It's funny, though, because Wai isn't betting based on a sophisticated understanding of the issue; he's just making the same mistake (underestimating the chances of candidates who aren't currently doing that well in polling) about a different couple of candidates.

What do you base this on?

 

[waiguoren]

It looks like it may have been agreed elsewhere but to post this one in the OP I need both of you to quote this post and give an okay in here for it to be official. I'm assuming that's what Wai was trying to do here. Whether it's official in here is up to you guys:

@waiguoren v. @Peteyandjia
1. Either Elizabeth Warren or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
2. @Peteyandjia - for @waiguoren - against
3. At the time of the 2020 Democratic convention
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month

I agree.

 

[Lead]

It looks like it may have been agreed elsewhere but to post this one in the OP I need both of you to quote this post and give an okay in here for it to be official. I'm assuming that's what Wai was trying to do here. Whether it's official in here is up to you guys:

@waiguoren v. @Peteyandjia
1. Either Elizabeth Warren or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
2. @Peteyandjia - for @waiguoren - against
3. At the time of the 2020 Democratic convention
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month

I agree.

Petey, I said in the event Wai waited until after the debate that I would reconfirm your acceptance of the bet since Warren could’ve done horribly. Another okay or nah to the bet above would be good.

Thanks

 

[waiguoren]

Cool.

Set it up @Lead.

1 month avatar bet.

Trump wins in 2020, I win, he loses, this random wins.

Respect has to be given, @Serenity Now, you are about the eighth leftist I have made this challenge to over the last few months and the rest all declined.

Lead, your workload is starting to ramp up. Experience proves you can handle it.

 

[waiguoren]

Petey, I said in the event Wai waited until after the debate that I would reconfirm your acceptance of the bet since Warren could’ve done horribly. Another okay or nah to the bet above would be good.

Thanks

I hereby revoke my confirmation. Warren is starting to concern me.

 

[JDragon]

LOL I don't think this is how this was supposed to work

 

[Lead]

I hereby revoke my confirmation. Warren is starting to concern me.

@Peteyandjia

@waiguoren didn’t okay the bet in here so it won’t show up in the OP. This isn’t a statement as to whether you guys made a deal or not but simply clarification that it didn’t get made official here under the process used.