The War Room Bet Thread V3

[RockstarChris]

i have and always will be a sherdoggie. bye

 

[JDragon]

i have and always will be a sherdoggie. bye

Eh?

 

[Andy Capp]

I think this is a bit of wishful thinking (and it contradicts polling that shows the GOP's defense and confirmation of Kavanaugh was a net negative for them, but I appreciate the effort in spelling out your thinking. Interesting stuff.



Yeah, independents tend to be the least-informed bloc (and it's not like everyone else is particularly well-informed). It's a definite flaw in the system, though as long as both parties resist populism, it needn't be that harmful. But you're conflating partisans (another very ignorant group) with people with a coherent ideology. Only the most-informed fifth can even identify what the "right" and "left" positions on issues are consistently. Most non-independents also lack a consistent worldview and simply pick up cues from influential figures on the side they identify with. Coulter said that Hannity would support communism if Trump did. That's typical of partisans. She's an awful person with a sick ideology, but she's not a partisan and she shows an understanding of the difference with that comment. Conversely, SBJJ attempted to refute the observation that he's a partisan by discussing ideological disagreements with his party, which shows that he doesn't understand what partisanship even is.

This also shows why it's folly to try to learn any lessons about policy from election results. The public doesn't know much of anything about policy, and they're often even badly wrong about what's happening (for example, a majority of Republicans thought that deficits rose under Clinton's presidency, and while I haven't seen a poll on it, I'd bet that they have the same misunderstanding about Obama--and you still see Republicans say that he personally doubled the debt or something).

Apropos of nothing, is that (bet) loser still hiding from the rest of the War Room?
I was almost starting to like the guy until he showed Ronda Rousey level ability to accept loss.

 

[Prokofievian]

Apropos of nothing, is that (bet) loser still hiding from the rest of the War Room?
I was almost starting to like the guy until he showed Ronda Rousey level ability to accept loss.

Hasn't been seen since. And with the weak ass sig that @Jack V Savage gave him to boot, talk about a glass chin.

 

[Lord Coke]

Patreon Bars Anti-Feminist for Racist Speech, Inciting Revolt
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/technology/patreon-hate-speech-bans.html

Having human moderators has changed users’ behaviors more than simply deleting accounts would, said Jacqueline Hart, left, head of trust and safety at the crowdfunding site Patreon.CreditJim McAuley for The New York Times

Image

Having human moderators has changed users’ behaviors more than simply deleting accounts would, said Jacqueline Hart, left, head of trust and safety at the crowdfunding site Patreon.CreditCreditJim McAuley for The New York Times


By Nellie Bowles

• Dec. 24, 2018

Sam Harris, the polemical atheist neuroscientist known for his popular podcast “Waking Up,” was making tens of thousands of dollars a month from fans who donated to him through Patreon, a crowdfunding site.

That stopped this month. On Dec. 6, Patreon kicked the anti-feminist polemic Carl Benjamin, who works under the name Sargon of Akkad, off its site for using racist language on YouTube. That same week, it removed the right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos a day after he opened an account.

The moves prompted a revolt. Mr. Harris, citing worries about censorship, announced that he would leave Patreon. He was joined in protest by about half a dozen other prominent members of the site, including the conservative-leaning psychologist Jordan Peterson and the libertarian podcaster Dave Rubin, who also earn money from Patreon.

“These recent expulsions seem more readily explained by political bias,” Mr. Harris wrote to his followers.

Alex Jones for violating hate speech rules, setting off a cascading effect.


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But as tech platforms try to get a handle on the issue, they are stoking the ire of their content creators, many of whom brand themselves as free speech warriors. Some accuse the companies of censorship. Others say the tech sites are biased and that hate speech is an ambiguous term. Now the digital dissent is becoming increasingly widespread, upending even smaller websites.

founded in 2013 by Jack Conte, a musician and disc jockey, is valued at $450 million and employs about 170 people in San Francisco. Fans donate to the content creators on the site whom they enjoy, and Patreon takes a 5 percent cut of the income.

defines as hate speech. That includes “serious attacks, or even negative generalizations, of people based on their race [and] sexual orientation,” she has said.

If someone has breached Patreon’s policy, the company contacts the offender with a specific plan, which usually involves asking for the content to be removed and for a public apology.


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Ms. Hart said around 10 percent of Patreon employees were dedicated to her trust and safety team.CreditJim McAuley for The New York Times

Image

Ms. Hart said around 10 percent of Patreon employees were dedicated to her trust and safety team.CreditJim McAuley for The New York Times
The conversations with creators can quickly become complicated, nuanced, and, well, human, she said. Among other challenges, Patreon has to decide what qualifies as a sincere and thorough apology. Still, having human moderators has changed its users’ behaviors more than simply deleting accounts would, Ms. Hart said.

the GamerGate movement in 2014. Mr. Benjamin used the N-word and anti-gay language during an interview posted to YouTube on Feb. 7, Patreon found.

On Dec. 6, the company told Mr. Benjamin that it would freeze his account and that he could appeal. Mr. Benjamin objected and said the video in question should not fall under Patreon’s rules because it was on YouTube.

For Mr. Benjamin, the timing was surprising. “My brand has been politically incorrect for years,” he said in a video he later posted to his YouTube channel called “The Patreon Witch Trials.”

Mr. Benjamin, who did not respond to requests for comment, has 870,000 subscribers on YouTube and had more than 3,000 subscribers on Patreon, from which he had been making around $12,000 a month. Many of his videos show just a static cartoon or a series of images, with his voice speaking against movements for gender equality.

tweeted, “The Platform War has begun.”

Mr. Rubin and Mr. Peterson said they plan to start their own version of Patreon, which will be less censorious. Mr. Peterson said his Patreon subscriptions had dropped to around 7,500, from about 10,000 over the summer, according to Graphtreon.

It’s unclear how effective Mr. Peterson’s and Mr. Rubin’s efforts will be. Alternatives to mainstream sites, such as the white supremacy-oriented Hatreon, have largely been failures.

And while many internet creators argue that Silicon Valley is trying to censor free speech, what the companies are doing is legal, said Vera Eidelman, staff attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union’s speech, privacy and technology project. “The First Amendment right is on the side of the company,” she said.

Those quitting Patreon in solidarity with Mr. Benjamin may have other motives behind their sudden outrage, Mr. Conte said. As content creators using the site grow more famous and their income more significant, the 5 percent cut that Patreon takes of their donations may have begun to seem cumbersome, he said. Other large creators are joining the rebellion.

“You can use a press debacle like this to drum up your community and rile people up and get them to support a cause,” Mr. Conte said. “We welcome competition.”

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In his exit note from Patreon, Mr. Harris, who gathered his fan base as a pugnacious atheist and fierce critic of Islam, wrote that he wanted his business interests to be freed from the site. He singled out Ms. Hart’s team.

“I consider it no longer tenable to expose any part of my podcast funding to the whims of Patreon’s ‘Trust and Safety’ committee,” Mr. Harris wrote. He added a link to his own website, where fans can enter their credit card information and choose a monthly contribution.

 

[Greoric]

Patreon Bars Anti-Feminist for Racist Speech, Inciting Revolt
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/technology/patreon-hate-speech-bans.html

I think Peterson and Rubin are proposing the launch of their own platform because of Patreon...

 

[44nutman]

@HereticBD
Done and I will rock Sansa for 30 days per the bet.
AV is a lot tamer than I expected.

 

[Lead]

Called this one later guys. My bad

#33. @44nutman v. @HereticBD
1. Trump being charged with Money Laundering by Jan 1st, 2019
2. @44nutman for, @HereticBD against
3. 01/01/2019
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Winner: HereticBD

 

[IGIT]

hello @Lead!

where is HomerThompson?

he lost his bet, as i said he would. the SCOTUS has not ruled on Roe vs Wade, the SCOTUS has made no move to overturn Federal law on the matter, and i am here to collect.

please have Homer insert this into his sig, in caps;

every sel...wait, let me start again.

EVERY SELF LOATHING LIBERAL SANDERS SUPPORTER WHO VOTED THIRD PARTY IN THE GENERAL GETS TO SHARE THE BLAME FOR THE EXISTENCE OF THE PHENOMENON KNOWS AS "PRESIDENT TRUMP". GOOD JOB!

thanks Lead!

- IGIT

 

[Limbo Pete]

hello @Lead!

where is HomerThompson?

he lost his bet, as i said he would. the SCOTUS has not ruled on Roe vs Wade, the SCOTUS has made no move to overturn Federal law on the matter, and i am here to collect.

please have Homer insert this into his sig, in caps;

every sel...wait, let me start again.

EVERY SELF LOATHING LIBERAL SANDERS SUPPORTER WHO VOTED THIRD PARTY IN THE GENERAL GETS TO SHARE THE BLAME FOR THE EXISTENCE OF THE PHENOMENON KNOWS AS "PRESIDENT TRUMP". GOOD JOB!

thanks Lead!

- IGIT

Banned, bruh

 

[IGIT]

Banned, bruh

ahoy master Moderator,

no.

goddamnit. when? why?

i make one bet here every decade and a half, i win, and this happens?

i feel cheated. shortchanged. hoodwinked.

taken for a fool.

*sigh*

- IGIT

 

[Limbo Pete]

ahoy master Moderator

<{chips}>

 

[IGIT]

<{chips}>

hi again Pete,

well, im a little high. i don't know.

i thought i saw blue font circling your name. but now i see that is not the case. i am at a loss to explain any of this, i apologize.

where is _ucking Homer? what did he do to himself?

- IGIT

 

[Fawlty]

Oh no just don't tell him it could crush him at this point

 

[IGIT]

Oh no just don't tell him it could crush him at this point

hi there Fawlty,

i won my bet.

as i age, i find that life presents less and less things to look forward to. i was eagerly anticipating mutilating Homer's sig in the aftermath of my victory.

this news leaves me diminished.

- IGIT

 

[Fawlty]

hi there Fawlty,

i won my bet.

as an adult, i find that life presents less and less things to look forward to. i was eagerly anticipating mutilating Homer's sig in the aftermath of my victory.

this news leaves me diminished.

- IGIT

lol

welcome back, we missed your style.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

well, im a little high.

 

[Lead]

hello @Lead!

where is HomerThompson?

he lost his bet, as i said he would. the SCOTUS has not ruled on Roe vs Wade, the SCOTUS has made no move to overturn Federal law on the matter, and i am here to collect.

please have Homer insert this into his sig, in caps;

every sel...wait, let me start again.

EVERY SELF LOATHING LIBERAL SANDERS SUPPORTER WHO VOTED THIRD PARTY IN THE GENERAL GETS TO SHARE THE BLAME FOR THE EXISTENCE OF THE PHENOMENON KNOWS AS "PRESIDENT TRUMP". GOOD JOB!

thanks Lead!

- IGIT

IGIT, I don't think you remembered the bet well:

#28. @HomerThompson v. @IGIT
1. Within 18 months of Trump's new justice being appointed, the supreme court will allow individual states to outlaw abortion.
2. HomerThompson - For, IGIT - Against
3. Tentatively 18 months once the Trump justice is confirmed (will updated when this happens)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months
6. If Trump isn't able to get an appointee confirmed, the bet is null


The bet is still in play for 18 more months after Kavanaugh has been appointed. Is there something I'm missing here?

 

[IGIT]

IGIT, I don't think you remembered the bet well:

#28. @HomerThompson v. @IGIT
1. Within 18 months of Trump's new justice being appointed, the supreme court will allow individual states to outlaw abortion.
2. HomerThompson - For, IGIT - Against
3. Tentatively 18 months once the Trump justice is confirmed (will updated when this happens)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months
6. If Trump isn't able to get an appointee confirmed, the bet is null


The bet is still in play for 18 more months after Kavanaugh has been appointed. Is there something I'm missing here?

hi Lead again,

that was not my understanding of the bet, really. but what the heck, i'll take those terms too.

i still believe that the SCOTUS won't touch this. so i will win the bet and be a happy IGIT...

...OR...

...the SCOTUS will greenlight the states to start legislating the matter on their own, and then one of the really nutter states (ie - Alabama, Mississippi...maybe Oklahoma) will outlaw abortion. then the GOP will die a quick and frenzied death, because women will grasp what has happened...

...and i'm still a happy IGIT.

the bet is on.

- IGIT

 

[Andy Capp]

hi Lead again,

that was not my understanding of the bet, really. but what the heck, i'll take those terms too.

i still believe that the SCOTUS won't touch this. so i will win the bet and be a happy IGIT...

...OR...

...the SCOTUS will greenlight the states to start legislating the matter on their own, and then one of the really nutter states (ie - Alabama, Mississippi...maybe Oklahoma) will outlaw abortion. then the GOP will die a quick and frenzied death, because women will grasp what has happened...

...and i'm still a happy IGIT.

the bet is on.

- IGIT

I heard a rumor that he would be allowed back, after time to think about what he did, as it were. You may yet get to collect on your bet.