The problems with the "Cain can push JDS' cardio to win" argument.

I hear this argument that Cain can use his cardio to tire Junior on lead up shows, articles and forums. I believe that Valasquez is an amazing fighter, and I believe/ agree that Cain can win if he can:
1) Consistently shows he can change levels while striking and catching junior in an unbalanced position ala GSP.
2) Rely heavily on leg kicks to the lead leg of Junior mixed with wrestling ala Condit/Benson/Diaz.
3) Fully commiting to wrestling and ground and pound.

Unfortunately all three of these options are somewhat limited in viability, given Juniors particular strengths.

#1 relys on winning the distance game of stand-up, in order to cause the opponent to risk closing the distance to strike, entering grappling range. Unfortunately Junior is tough to best at range, using footspeed and probing punches better than anyone in the UFC.

#2 What I believe to be Cains best strategy opening up, considering Juniors propensity to eat leg kicks. The issue with this, is multifaceted. Condit was able to pull it off due to his smart defense, and commitment to lateral movement, circling outside. Cain rarely uses leg kicks and then moves laterally, instead comboing or perhaps moving in to wrestle such as Benson did to Diaz. The issue with this is Cains hittability, and Juniors takedown defense. Even in fights where Cain is winning, he ALWAYS gets tagged coming in. Unlike Nog and Kongo, however, Junior is often further away or moving lateral after exchanges. Cain gets a hard time for not attempting to wrestle the first 64 seconds of the first fight, but he was never in a position where he was physically close enough to safely shoot at JDS. Otherwise you're just abandoning sound defence to wrestle.

#3 Maybe Cain abandons his balanced attack and begins shooting from outside normal range. He grabs Junior, attempts to chain wrestle, but most likely ends up trying to push junior against the cage. Again, I believe to be a tough task considering JDS' lateral movement and physical strength. You also have to again factor this makes Cain abandon his striking defense earlier, compounding with his previously mentioned hittability.

You also have to factor Juniors greatest strength, his reaction time and ability to KO through openings, plays a huge factor in every attempt to "push his cardio" either through striking or grappling. The only way to wear Junior out is to allow him to have additional opportunities for his dreaded potshots, to allow him to smash until exhausted, or to regularly have him on his back, which is unlikely.

I like Cain, and I think he beats Overeem and everyone else right now. I think he is good enough to maybe show something brand new that will be the difference. I think if he does get a first round takedown and is able to rough up JDS that it changes the fight a lot. I just happen to think that Junior is just too good at the right things for Cain to have a reasonable chance of that happening.

 

I love Velasquez but I gotta agree with you.

Although if he beats JDS in devastating GNP fashion, I will scream like a 13 year old girl at a Justin Bieber concert.

If Cain can push him up against the cage, lean on him and dirtybox for a bit, he has a chance. He NEEDS to wear JDS out

 

Cliff notes please

 

This fight is not going passed the second round so the "push the pace" strategy won't work. JDS by KO once again. And no, Cain has no shot at Overeem.

 

Cain's biggest obstacle is his chin.

 

Is this coming out in Hardback or cover-back

Cain has to watch out for JDS's right hand, so he can take pot shots from JDS's left which is not his power hand.

If Cain can implement his game, he can and will tire out JDS, its just can he implement his wrestling and stay away from JDS's right hand. Once Cain secures a take down, JDS's entire game will change and may make JDS defensive and tentative in his stand up, which benefits Cain.

We will see in the fight

 

I see this fight as the heavyweight version of Liddell/Couture a la the striker vs the grappler. The best success Couture found against Liddell was when he blended his attack. Standing toe to toe with Liddell & having success was crazy to think of but Couture did it by keeping Liddell on edge. In their first bout, he landed big shots but followed nearly every land with an attempt to close the gap.

That's what Velasquez has to do. He's going to have to strike with JDS, no way around it, but he must play his strength better. When Jds commits on a big strike, there is your opporunity. If he wants to sit back & select, set him up. Show him a little to get him to open up or lead and be ready to react. This is all predicated on Velasquez being the aggressor. He has to get the belt from the champ but winning the opening frame will but him in excellent position. That was Couture's secret. He took the opening frame without getting finished in the first & it was his fight to lose from there.

It sounds to me that Velasquez understands what he has to do. I don't really see a point in discussing if its leg kick based or changing levels or this that or the other way. There are several ways for Velasquez to get the job done based on what skill he has displayed to this point.

JDS's punching power isn't the same after the 1st round or so. For most big men, this is true. Not that he needs a ton to get this particular job done, jds will have to do damage early. If he doesn't, the chances of him finishing the fight fade dramatically. There shouldn't be a question to who's cardio between these two men is the better.

The way these two men's style, skill, & physicalities collide will always produce something awesome to see.

Lets hope for the classic heavyweight tilt we've been waiting for.

And to the guy posting above me, are you insane? JDS has a nasty left hook, more than enough power in that shot to end the night. You shouldn't let JDS hit you with anything...

 

Just learn to read, this is a discussion forum. His post was well thought out and organized.


I would love to see JDS ground game tested because we really haven't yet. There really isn't much he can offer JDS on the feet, and playing a distance game with leg kicks probably isn't going to work well. He's gotta get JDS moving backwards and keep the pressure on him without getting caught.

 

I'd say Cain certainly holds the advantage from range because he has a decent kicking game. Cain will run into trouble if he chooses to exchange in mid range or allows JDS to dictate range and gain the initiative. I actually believe that Cain is not the kind of fighter that JDS can afford to get completely reckless against (as he has in the past). Even though Cain is vulnerable in exchanges, he is also quite dangerous countering in the pocket and he does have power.

 

Exquisite post. Well thought out.

 

Cain's biggest weakness is his defense, unless he made significant improvements in that area, I don't see the fight going his way.

People write off the first fight as some fluke but look at the way he got caught, he does not move his head at all when he punches, he just never really fought someone who can exploit that hole in his game up until he fought JDS(well Kongo did at times).

Against someone like JDS, you need better defense, plain and simple. He's too easy to hit and JDS hits way too hard to be taking flush shots from him.

Of course Cain can win this fight if he is able to get the TD's and work his GNP, I just feel his defense is too lacking for him to really be able to implement his gameplan, every fight starts standing.

 

Cain definitely needs to circle away from JDS' right hand. I think his best bet is to fake punches and try to close the distance quickly. Clinching is probably a safer idea than attempting takedowns from the distance.

JDS is the type of fighter who will try to get back to striking very actively. After multiple attempts he will get tired.

 

Cain's biggest obstacle to pushing JDS's cardio is that he can't possibly take the 3 rounds of punches to the face like Roy Nelson can....and if he can, his legendary gas tank will crack from all that damage.

 

Good points, and I agree with you for the most part. It'll be so interesting to see whether Cain can implement his wrestling, because that's what he's going to need if he wants the odds to turn in his favor. JDS is the favorite in round 1 for obvious reasons, but if the fight moves on and into deep waters, I think Cain becomes more and more of a favorite. But the big question mark still remains; will Cain be able to put JDS on his back? I can't wait for this fight!

 

This is a great post man. I think this fight will go Liddell/Couture, but what was Coutures downfall in those fights was Liddells footwork and setting up angles. To rush such an active lateral mover is to walk onto punches, and that was Couture through 2 and 3.

I think it is worth talking about how Cain attempts his approach. To go with the combo and slip under is to risk standing in front of Junior. To risk kicking is to risk standing on one leg like gonzaga. Cain landed leg kicks in that first round, but junior landed straights to the body during them. That ultimately led to the dipping overhand right KO.

Cain can do it, but he has to fight perfect in my opinion. Especially through the first two rounds.

 

JDS is the better fighter of them, I believe Cain is #2 in the world.

 

Cain does what Chael did to Anderson but doesn't get caught and he wins. Cain is going to win I think. He shows the ability to fight to his strengths like he did vs Big Foot. A lot of times fighters don't fight their fight ala BJ Penn, Sugar Evans, late Randy Couture...just do what you do best in Cain's case gnp to a victory. (if he can get JDS down)

 

Or that spot behind his ear

 

Absolutely!

If Cain had the chin of Diaz (heavy weight style) Cain would have probably even won the first fight.

Cain does not have a good chin. This is bad/very bad considering how hard Junior hits combined with his speed and TDD.

Should be a great battle regardless.

 

So KOd once and he doesn't have a good "chin"

inb4kongodroppedhimtwice

buthestillrecoveredtowinthefight