I hear this argument that Cain can use his cardio to tire Junior on lead up shows, articles and forums. I believe that Valasquez is an amazing fighter, and I believe/ agree that Cain can win if he can:
1) Consistently shows he can change levels while striking and catching junior in an unbalanced position ala GSP.
2) Rely heavily on leg kicks to the lead leg of Junior mixed with wrestling ala Condit/Benson/Diaz.
3) Fully commiting to wrestling and ground and pound.
Unfortunately all three of these options are somewhat limited in viability, given Juniors particular strengths.
#1 relys on winning the distance game of stand-up, in order to cause the opponent to risk closing the distance to strike, entering grappling range. Unfortunately Junior is tough to best at range, using footspeed and probing punches better than anyone in the UFC.
#2 What I believe to be Cains best strategy opening up, considering Juniors propensity to eat leg kicks. The issue with this, is multifaceted. Condit was able to pull it off due to his smart defense, and commitment to lateral movement, circling outside. Cain rarely uses leg kicks and then moves laterally, instead comboing or perhaps moving in to wrestle such as Benson did to Diaz. The issue with this is Cains hittability, and Juniors takedown defense. Even in fights where Cain is winning, he ALWAYS gets tagged coming in. Unlike Nog and Kongo, however, Junior is often further away or moving lateral after exchanges. Cain gets a hard time for not attempting to wrestle the first 64 seconds of the first fight, but he was never in a position where he was physically close enough to safely shoot at JDS. Otherwise you're just abandoning sound defence to wrestle.
#3 Maybe Cain abandons his balanced attack and begins shooting from outside normal range. He grabs Junior, attempts to chain wrestle, but most likely ends up trying to push junior against the cage. Again, I believe to be a tough task considering JDS' lateral movement and physical strength. You also have to again factor this makes Cain abandon his striking defense earlier, compounding with his previously mentioned hittability.
You also have to factor Juniors greatest strength, his reaction time and ability to KO through openings, plays a huge factor in every attempt to "push his cardio" either through striking or grappling. The only way to wear Junior out is to allow him to have additional opportunities for his dreaded potshots, to allow him to smash until exhausted, or to regularly have him on his back, which is unlikely.
I like Cain, and I think he beats Overeem and everyone else right now. I think he is good enough to maybe show something brand new that will be the difference. I think if he does get a first round takedown and is able to rough up JDS that it changes the fight a lot. I just happen to think that Junior is just too good at the right things for Cain to have a reasonable chance of that happening.
1) Consistently shows he can change levels while striking and catching junior in an unbalanced position ala GSP.
2) Rely heavily on leg kicks to the lead leg of Junior mixed with wrestling ala Condit/Benson/Diaz.
3) Fully commiting to wrestling and ground and pound.
Unfortunately all three of these options are somewhat limited in viability, given Juniors particular strengths.
#1 relys on winning the distance game of stand-up, in order to cause the opponent to risk closing the distance to strike, entering grappling range. Unfortunately Junior is tough to best at range, using footspeed and probing punches better than anyone in the UFC.
#2 What I believe to be Cains best strategy opening up, considering Juniors propensity to eat leg kicks. The issue with this, is multifaceted. Condit was able to pull it off due to his smart defense, and commitment to lateral movement, circling outside. Cain rarely uses leg kicks and then moves laterally, instead comboing or perhaps moving in to wrestle such as Benson did to Diaz. The issue with this is Cains hittability, and Juniors takedown defense. Even in fights where Cain is winning, he ALWAYS gets tagged coming in. Unlike Nog and Kongo, however, Junior is often further away or moving lateral after exchanges. Cain gets a hard time for not attempting to wrestle the first 64 seconds of the first fight, but he was never in a position where he was physically close enough to safely shoot at JDS. Otherwise you're just abandoning sound defence to wrestle.
#3 Maybe Cain abandons his balanced attack and begins shooting from outside normal range. He grabs Junior, attempts to chain wrestle, but most likely ends up trying to push junior against the cage. Again, I believe to be a tough task considering JDS' lateral movement and physical strength. You also have to again factor this makes Cain abandon his striking defense earlier, compounding with his previously mentioned hittability.
You also have to factor Juniors greatest strength, his reaction time and ability to KO through openings, plays a huge factor in every attempt to "push his cardio" either through striking or grappling. The only way to wear Junior out is to allow him to have additional opportunities for his dreaded potshots, to allow him to smash until exhausted, or to regularly have him on his back, which is unlikely.
I like Cain, and I think he beats Overeem and everyone else right now. I think he is good enough to maybe show something brand new that will be the difference. I think if he does get a first round takedown and is able to rough up JDS that it changes the fight a lot. I just happen to think that Junior is just too good at the right things for Cain to have a reasonable chance of that happening.
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