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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

t6p said:
If I remember correctly, you had run the numbers with the formula we were using at that time and they were my starting point. How I actually landed on the horses I did though is a lot fuzzier, haha.

But no worries bud, I have everything you've shared with me saved, so I do still have a copy of that formula.
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Okay, cool. Beyond stride length/maintencance, which has shown value for me in the past in longer races like the Derby, I doubt I'll be doing things the same way I've done it the last few years. Much of the stuff regarding patterns and such is already implemented in this current system of mine anyways. I might add some subjective observations with a couple of horses as well, but we'll see. Still a month to go yet.
 
t6p said:
Thanks, Shark. I told myself that I won't be betting any fights where I haven't done proper research and so far I've been sticking to that. It's been working well so hopefully that'll continue. Pretty sure what got me into trouble to begin with was going too much off memory instead of really digging into tape. It seems obvious, but the things you catch when rewatching fights can really sway your opinion of how a particular matchup might play out. My main issue now is finding the time for tape every week.
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I don't see why it wouldn't continue working for you, T. You may get bit by some bad luck along the way, but hey. Shit happens, you know. But a sharp guy like you who's willing to put in the work is going to have a big advantage in the market over the long haul. You know that.

Speaking of what you say got you in trouble, I felt bad for what I said to that guy last month who was 0 for 3 to begin his betting. I wanted to apologize to him soon after, although he probably would have told me where to go. I did want to make that point with him that going off what he only had stored in his head was a bad idea. But I didn't want to be such an ass in the way I did it, though. Haha. Oh well.
 
Sharkey said:
I don't see why it wouldn't continue working for you, T. You may get bit by some bad luck along the way, but hey. Shit happens, you know. But a sharp guy like you who's willing to put in the work is going to have a big advantage in the market over the long haul. You know that.

Speaking of what you say got you in trouble, I felt bad for what I said to that guy last month who was 0 for 3 to begin his betting. I wanted to apologize to him soon after, although he probably would have told me where to go. I did want to make that point with him that going off what he only had stored in his head was a bad idea. But I didn't want to be such an ass in the way I did it, though. Haha. Oh well.
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He deserved that shark, don't worry about it.
 
You liking anything so far or waiting on the lines to move @Sharkey ? Have you had any action today so far btw?
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
You liking anything so far or waiting on the lines to move @Sharkey ? Have you had any action today so far btw?
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I'm basically just waiting on the prep races, my friend, and then one race before those get under way. I also just got my lazy ass out of bed within the past couple of hours, so I haven't made a wager yet today.
 
@BluntTrauma21

This is the race I did before the three Derby preps;

==========

G1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland (2:10);

#9 21.2%/25.6% = 3.7/1
#6 19.0%/18.2% = 4.3/1
#5 17.9%/19.7% = 4.6/1
#8 16.9%/15.7% = 4.9/1
#4 11.0%/7.0% = 8.1/1
#7 4.7%/4.1% = 20.3/1
#1 3.4%/4.3% = 28.3/1
#3 3.3%/3.1% = 29.0/1
#2 2.5%/2.3% = 39.3/1

==========

The tote will be my guide for this race and the three Derby preps of course.
 
Sharkey said:
Cutting out all the extra confusing stuff that I doubt anybody understands, these are just my W/P probabilities and fair odds lines for those races;

==========

G2 Wood Memorial (3:00);

#4 (28.5%/32.9%) = 2.5/1 (7/2 ML)
#1 (17.5%/18.6%) = 4.7/1 (9/2 ML)
#10 (9.4%/7.9%) = 9.7/1 (6/1 ML)
#5 (9.1%/8.1%) = 10.0/1 (8/1 ML)
#9 (7.9%/7.8%) = 11.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#3 (6.3%/6.0%) = 14.8/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 (6.0%/7.5%) = 15.6/1 (5/2 ML) *favourite*
#11 (5.2%/3.6%) = 18.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#7 (4.7%/4.1%) = 20.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 (2.9%/1.5%) = 33.5/1 (20/1 ML)
#8 (2.5%/1.9%) = 39.3/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3:23);

#2 (23.6%/22.6%) = 3.2/1 (9/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 (20.7%/14.3%) = 3.8/1 (10/1 ML)
#3 (12.9%/15.5%) = 6.7/1 (5/1 ML)
#7 (8.5%/9.5%) = 10.7/1 (15/1 ML)
#8 (8.4%/10.9%) = 10.9/1 (7/2 ML)
#10 (6.3%/5.0%) = 14.8/1 (20/1 ML)
#9 (3.4%/5.8%) = 28.5/1 (15/1 ML)
#13 (3.2%/3.6%) = 30.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#14 (3.1%/2.6%) = 31.1/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 (2.6%/1.7%) = 38.2/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 (2.2%/2.8%) = 45.3/1 (12/1 ML)
#12 (2.2%/2.0%) = 45.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#11 (1.5%/2.2%) = 64.2/1 (15/1 ML)
#5 (1.3%/1.5%) = 76.9/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

G1 Santa Anita Derby (3:30);

#5 (37.4%/29.4%) = 1.7/1 (3/1 ML)
#6 (36.5%/42.5%) = 1.8/1 (4/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 (12.7%/13.8%) = 6.9/1 (5/2 ML)
#3 (7.7%/8.9%) = 12.1/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 (3.8%/4.2%) = 25.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 (1.9%/1.2%) = 51.8/1 (30/1 ML)

==========
Click to expand...

@BluntTrauma21

Just a reminder of my fair odds are for those prep races today if you are looking to make a play. I can't give a pick out in advance unfortunately because I won't know who or even if I'll make a bet until the last minute.
 
Thanks again, Shark. Reminds me of pot odds in poker, except more advanced, obv. You make a complex dynamic into an easily digestible form of picking what to bet.
 
@BluntTrauma21

To make it simple, these are the only ones I'll be watching the odds for really. Not going to reach too deep and force with a horse I don't have as a strong contender. Plus I'm only win betting today.

==========

G1 Madison Stakes (2:10);

#9 21.2%/25.6% = 3.7/1 (5/2 ML) *favourite*
#6 19.0%/18.2% = 4.3/1 (7/2 ML)
#5 17.9%/19.7% = 4.6/1 (7/2 ML)
#8 16.9%/15.7% = 4.9/1 (10/1 ML)

==========

G2 Wood Memorial (3:00);

#4 (28.5%/32.9%) = 2.5/1 (7/2 ML)
#1 (17.5%/18.6%) = 4.7/1 (9/2 ML)

==========

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3:23);

#2 (23.6%/22.6%) = 3.2/1 (9/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 (20.7%/14.3%) = 3.8/1 (10/1 ML)
#3 (12.9%/15.5%) = 6.7/1 (5/1 ML)

==========

G1 Santa Anita Derby (3:30);

#5 (37.4%/29.4%) = 1.7/1 (3/1 ML)
#6 (36.5%/42.5%) = 1.8/1 (4/5 ML) *favourite*

==========
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
You make a complex dynamic into an easily digestible form of picking what to bet.
Click to expand...

Really? Haha.

Actually it is pretty easy. Once I compile the probabilities with this system of mine the bets (or pass) make themselves.

I've basically eliminated any subjective decision making with this stuff in all regards.
 
Sharkey said:
Really? Haha.

Actually it is pretty easy. Once I compile the probabilities with this system of mine the bets (or pass) make themselves.

I've basically eliminated any subjective decision making with this stuff in all regards.
Click to expand...
No that's what I was trying to say. I know all the numbers you use can be pretty complex but the numbers you boil it down to are easy to make dec's for. If that makes sense.

I rarely play poker anymore but sometimes the odds would make for a call b/c the price you were getting gave you too much value, and the fair odds compared to the tote are similar. If it says play at 4-1 and you're getting 9-1 there's really no thinking about it, you make the bet. Good stuff.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
No that's what I was trying to say. I know all the numbers you use can be pretty complex but the numbers you boil it down to are easy to make dec's for. If that makes sense.

I rarely play poker anymore but sometimes the odds would make for a call b/c the price you were getting gave you too much value, and the fair odds compared to the tote are similar. If it says play at 4-1 and you're getting 9-1 there's really no thinking about it, you make the bet. Good stuff.
Click to expand...

Yep. My probabilities equal 100% and eliminates the takeout, so the one unfortunate thing about that is that I have to pass on most of the races I do. But I've also increased my wager size quite a bit over the last couple/few months. I've also divided my win bets into the "prime" and "recreational" categories. My prime bets are when I can attack a race where I see a vulnerable favourite, and I'm getting good value. My recreational bets are when I do have the favourite looking good, but I'm getting a lot of value from one of the other win contenders.
 
i.e. There's not going to be any "prime" bets from me today.
 
Sharkey said:
@BluntTrauma21

To make it simple, these are the only ones I'll be watching the odds for really. Not going to reach too deep and force with a horse I don't have as a strong contender. Plus I'm only win betting today.

==========

G1 Madison Stakes (2:10);

#9 21.2%/25.6% = 3.7/1 (5/2 ML) *favourite*
#6 19.0%/18.2% = 4.3/1 (7/2 ML)
#5 17.9%/19.7% = 4.6/1 (7/2 ML)
#8 16.9%/15.7% = 4.9/1 (10/1 ML)

==========
Click to expand...

@BluntTrauma21

This race is coming up in 20 mins (race 8 at Keeneland), and the #8 should be close to what it's morning line odds were based on the multi-race will pays (12/1 now in the early wagering). If I'm getting double the value on it as they enter the gate I'll pull the trigger on a recreational bet.
 
Sharkey said:
@BluntTrauma21

This race is coming up in 20 mins (race 8 at Keeneland), and the #8 should be close to what it's morning line odds were based on the multi-race will pays (12/1 now in the early wagering). If I'm getting double the value on it as they enter the gate I'll pull the trigger on a recreational bet.
Click to expand...
THanks buddy, appreciate the info. Will be with you if it plays out ofc.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
THanks buddy, appreciate the info. Will be with you if it plays out ofc.
Click to expand...

I don't factor this at all when running the numbers, but I like that the #8 is the outside speed in a one turn sprint race, as well as being the SF horse in the race. With it having a slightly greater chance to win than to place there's also a risk that it may fade late as well if there's a lot of front end pressure this race. But it looks like the odds will be worth the risk for me.
 
Sharkey said:
I don't factor this at all when running the numbers, but I like that the #8 is the outside speed in a one turn sprint race, as well as being the SF horse in the race. With it having a slightly greater chance to win than to place there's also a risk that it may fade late as well if there's a lot of front end pressure this race. But it looks like the odds will be worth the risk for me.
Click to expand...
Definitely hopefully she sticks around 11-1 for us but we have some wiggle room there. Locked in, GL!
 
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