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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

The Bid's world record at 10f may be falling today with how juiced up this Belmont surface is today. Well, not really. But Diversify is quite likely to run a very quick sub 2:00 time on this track in the JCGC.
 
Yeah, the other one had proven itself cursed in the end, so we started anew.

So who are you liking today in those big races you mentioned? I haven't looked at them much beyond a quick glance at the PP's, but it's hard not seeing both of them chalk out with Diversify and Accelerate. I'm not interested in the least in betting them at such short prices, though. Diversify is going against a bunch of dressed up Euros who were flattered by circumstances (Gronk, Mendy, Thunder Snow) and then some 2nd raters. Just a B effort by Diversify probably beats that bunch. I still think that West Coast may be a better horse than Accelerate at route distances, but Baffert's comments this past week have sure made it seem like they were just using today's race as strictly a prep race for the BC Classic. Don't think we'll be seeing West Coast's best today off the long layoff when the goal is to peak next month. So it'll probably be Accelerate by default in that one today.
Diversify at Belmont is probably the best horse in the country in my opinion - consistently rendering 2:00 and 1:59 type one and a quarters where as Accelerate hasn't broken 2:01. I think they are both locks today, but the real interesting factor in the Cup is they both travel poorly.

Thunder Snow is interesting but he too travels poorly. Mendelssohn looked great up last but I still dont think he can beat a 2:02 - he may give Diversify a nice speed challenge, and that dynamic could then be interesting for some closers. I still think Gronk was a flash in the pan and benefitted at Belmont from the length and whole field chasing Justify.

West Coast is the most enigmatic question of the day for me. He looked to be the sure shot for an Eclipse award this year but he has been absent. Collected looked like hot trash but he is older, and 4 is when a horse should peak, so WC could be interesting. It sounds like Baffert is kind of hoping to even finish second, saying WC was only 80% and he wanted to avoid Accelerate, who is widely regarded as the best horse in training now.

I like Mind Your Biscuits in the Lukas, and hoping Toast Of New York returns to form, as that will add an interesting dynamic to the BCC. I still think it's too much to be retired, breed some mares, get your balls chopped off and return; much like Battle Of Midway shows us, it takes a lot out of a horse. Poor Justify lost 200 pounds in 2 months, just from sitting in his stall (probably also having the Baffert 'supplements' pulled too).
 
The Bid's world record at 10f may be falling today with how juiced up this Belmont surface is today. Well, not really. But Diversify is quite likely to run a very quick sub 2:00 time on this track in the JCGC.
Do you know what I think was more impressive than Bid's record is Game On Dude's Santa Anita, where he broke :eek::eek::eek:er's mile record and still ran a 1:58. It's crazy to think a horse can go that fast over a mile and then keep it up another quarter.

Speaking of Bid tho, WOW, what a horse! Crazy to think he would have been like 15 lengths in front of Secretariat's record breaking Derby. Amazing to think no horse has come close to that in nearly 40 years either, even with all the advancements in breeding and in technology. Bid at 4 is probably the best race horse ever. My favorite is the Whitney, where he had no competetion and still rendered a 2:02. Hillarious yo me that people will call Winx the best racehorse ever, but she struggles to even break 2:04 on the lawn, where horses like Bid would nearly be lapping her running on the dirt. I really thought Arrogate was going to be Bid reincarnated, but boy were we all wrong about that.

I'm thinking Diversify maybe runs under 2 today. You're right, the track is juiced to the gills and we got some speed horses here too. I think Gronk is toast.
 
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Hey Sharkey, do you know the % of purse given to trainer and jockey? I think I heard 10% to jockey but I could be wrong. You figure one win at Dubai or the Pegasus changes a jockey's life.
 
Do you know what I think was more impressive than Bid's record is Game On Dude's Santa Anita, where he broke :eek::eek::eek:er's mile record and still ran a 1:58. It's crazy to think a horse can go that fast over a mile and then keep it up another quarter.

Speaking of Bid tho, WOW, what a horse! Crazy to think he would have been like 15 lengths in front of Secretariat's record breaking Derby. Amazing to think no horse has come close to that in nearly 40 years either, even with all the advancements in breeding and in technology. Bid at 4 is probably the best race horse ever. My favorite is the Whitney, where he had no competetion and still rendered a 2:02. Hillarious yo me that people will call Winx the best racehorse ever, but she struggles to even break 2:04 on the lawn, where horses like Bid would nearly be lapping her running on the dirt. I really thought Arrogate was going to be Bid reincarnated, but boy were we all wrong about that.

I'm thinking Diversify maybe runs under 2 today. You're right, the track is juiced to the gills and we got some speed horses here too. I think Gronk is toast.

My first memories of horse racing when I was just a kid were actually of The Bid, and it may have even been in that walkover you alluded. Imagine that hey? A big G1 race and every other horse in training doesn't even bother to contest the race and instead concedes in advance. That says a lot about a horse right there if he's allowed a walkover in a G1 race. But you're 100% correct. The Bid was friggin "spectacular". There's three horse in my opinion over the last 50 years or so who breathed different air than all the others and Spectacular Bid was certainly one of them along with Dr :eek::eek::eek:er and Secretariat. They were just faster than all the rest. Just better. And they proved it time and time again unlike a lot of more recent horses who do it one or two times. I cringed every time I saw someone refer to Zenyatta, Pharoah, etc., as the "greatest ever". They weren't. Not even close, although they were certainly great in their own eras. They just weren't in contention for "greatest ever", though, unlike :eek::eek::eek:er and The Bid. Horses like that are on another level to what we've seen more recently. They were just faster and they didn't need to be babied or in need of a medication like lasix either unlike the more fragile breed we've seen over the last decade or two. They raced, they won, and then they repeated the process a couple/few weeks later.
 
Hey Sharkey, do you know the % of purse given to trainer and jockey? I think I heard 10% to jockey but I could be wrong. You figure one win at Dubai or the Pegasus changes a jockey's life.

I believe it's 10% of the purse to the jockey if the horse wins, and then 5% for 2nd or 3rd. Some states require that they also pay out 5% to the jockey for a 4th place finish depending on race/field size. On the higher levels some jockey's are on guaranteed contracts with a trainer/owner. At the lowest levels most jockeys rely strictly on a mount fee I do believe, which is in the neighborhood of $50 or so per race (maybe a bit more depending on state). Of course mount fees exist in higher levels of racing as well. Nobody is ever riding a horse for free.

Some of the big name jockeys are multi-millionaires. Some of them at the lowest level are struggling day to day well below the poverty level, especially if they only get one or two mounts a day seeing as they also have to pay out expenses as well (agent fees and such).
 
My first memories of horse racing when I was just a kid were actually of The Bid, and it may have even been in that walkover you alluded. Imagine that hey? A big G1 race and every other horse in training doesn't even bother to contest the race and instead concedes in advance. That says a lot about a horse right there if he's allowed a walkover in a G1 race. But you're 100% correct. The Bid was friggin "spectacular". There's three horse in my opinion over the last 50 years or so who breathed different air than all the others and Spectacular Bid was certainly one of them along with Dr :eek::eek::eek:er and Secretariat. They were just faster than all the rest. Just better. And they proved it time and time again unlike a lot of more recent horses who do it one or two times. I cringed every time I saw someone refer to Zenyatta, Pharoah, etc., as the "greatest ever". They weren't. Not even close, although they were certainly great in their own eras. They just weren't in contention for "greatest ever", though, unlike :eek::eek::eek:er and The Bid. Horses like that are on another level to what we've seen more recently. They were just faster and they didn't need to be babied or in need of a medication like lasix either unlike the more fragile breed we've seen over the last decade or two. They raced, they won, and then they repeated the process a couple/few weeks later.
Shark you honestly sound like you're talking boxing in this post as well. It's crazy how similar what you're saying in regards to the ponies is to old school boxers as well. I also need to watch some tape on Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er. I know Secretariat but Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er seem much less known albeit just as prestigious of a horse.
 
Btw speaking of jockeys, Dylan Davis who I think it out of Belmont mainly seems like a rising prospect in the sport. He always seems to be running well in the races that he's entered in. How much value does it bring to the table when we find a lesser known jockey to the public that really seems to know how to ride like this Davis kid?
 
Shark you honestly sound like you're talking boxing in this post as well. It's crazy how similar what you're saying in regards to the ponies is to old school boxers as well. I also need to watch some tape on Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er. I know Secretariat but Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er seem much less known albeit just as prestigious of a horse.

My guess Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er would have been your favourite horse ever if you were around at that time since you're both a little "nutty". Haha. :eek::eek::eek:er was a "character" for sure.

Here's his world record mile which still stands to this day.

 
Btw speaking of jockeys, Dylan Davis who I think it out of Belmont mainly seems like a rising prospect in the sport. He always seems to be running well in the races that he's entered in. How much value does it bring to the table when we find a lesser known jockey to the public that really seems to know how to ride like this Davis kid?

It brings a lot of value, bud, since there are a lot of people out there who mostly bet jockey and trainer combinations without giving a good look at the actual horse. Tracks like Belmont which have a unique configuration do require a jock that's at least somewhat familiar with it, but most of the time the jock is of little importance. The horse runs the race. The jock can't do anything to help it win, although there are certainly plenty of times a jock can contribute to a loss. But the hose itself decides if it's going to win or not. Ditto for the trainer, who's obviously important (way more important than the jock), but the influence of that trainer is already going to be shown in the horse's previous races. If you know what I mean. If a horse has ran slow previous races for a high percentage trainer he's not suddenly going to become fast for that same high percentage trainer in his next race. Yet the public will view it that way at times.

Davis is good at what he does for sure. Unfortunately the New York public knows that as well. Perhaps when he gets to ride on the national stage then the value his horse4 has will be more impactful.
 
My guess Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er would have been your favourite horse ever if you were around at that time since you're both a little "nutty". Haha. :eek::eek::eek:er was a "character" for sure.

Here's his world record mile which still stands to this day.


Firstly that looked like the Zapruder film but with horses and no murders. Secondly, the second wind down the stretch Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er showed was amazing. He looked like he didn't even break a sweat, he finished and looked like he could've ran another 8f. That was beautiful.

That's one thing I think I'm lacking in, you give me formulas and even tho I'm terrible with math I'll eventually get a hold of at least the less complex ones you've conjured up. But even tho I watch much more horse racing than I used to when it was basically just the TC races, I don't really know what to look for when it comes to a horse's attributes when they run. Maybe attributes isn't the right word, but what to look for other than the horse/jockey being on/near the pace.

As you've taught me over the last few years, my off pace types aren't really great horses to bet on all the time, it's more being up in the mix the whole time instead of trying to run down the others in the stretch, lol.
 
It brings a lot of value, bud, since there are a lot of people out there who mostly bet jockey and trainer combinations without giving a good look at the actual horse. Tracks like Belmont which have a unique configuration do require a jock that's at least somewhat familiar with it, but most of the time the jock is of little importance. The horse runs the race. The jock can't do anything to help it win, although there are certainly plenty of times a jock can contribute to a loss. But the hose itself decides if it's going to win or not. Ditto for the trainer, who's obviously important (way more important than the jock), but the influence of that trainer is already going to be shown in the horse's previous races. If you know what I mean. If a horse has ran slow previous races for a high percentage trainer he's not suddenly going to become fast for that same high percentage trainer in his next race. Yet the public will view it that way at times.

Davis is good at what he does for sure. Unfortunately the New York public knows that as well. Perhaps when he gets to ride on the national stage then the value his horse4 has will be more impactful.
Makes sense, thanks for the wisdom as always buddy.
 
My guess Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er would have been your favourite horse ever if you were around at that time since you're both a little "nutty". Haha. :eek::eek::eek:er was a "character" for sure.

Here's his world record mile which still stands to this day.


Yes :eek::eek::eek:er was on another level and so consistent. Secretariat gets so much attention because of the Crown and the Belmont victory, but :eek::eek::eek:er was a freak. You are dead on about the Secretariat, :eek::eek::eek:er and Bid being in a different class. I can only imagine what Secretariat would have done as a 4 year old. What kills me about Justify is I think he may have potentially panned out to that class of horse with more time - reminded me of :eek::eek::eek:er in that you could throw G1 sprint winning rabbits at him and he would smash them and the G1 Eclipse winning closers too.

Speaking of G1 sprint winners, Imperial Hint looked unbelievable just now. Wow, hand ridden the whole way and geared down too.
 
Firstly that looked like the Zapruder film but with horses and no murders. Secondly, the second wind down the stretch Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er showed was amazing. He looked like he didn't even break a sweat, he finished and looked like he could've ran another 8f. That was beautiful.

That's one thing I think I'm lacking in, you give me formulas and even tho I'm terrible with math I'll eventually get a hold of at least the less complex ones you've conjured up. But even tho I watch much more horse racing than I used to when it was basically just the TC races, I don't really know what to look for when it comes to a horse's attributes when they run. Maybe attributes isn't the right word, but what to look for other than the horse/jockey being on/near the pace.

As you've taught me over the last few years, my off pace types aren't really great horses to bet on all the time, it's more being up in the mix the whole time instead of trying to run down the others in the stretch, lol.

:eek::eek::eek:er also set that world record by carrying 134 lbs (he was always forced to carry a high weight), which makes it that much more impressive. He also ran what is believed to be the fastest quarter mile section of a route race in history when he pulled off a 20 second flat for the second quarter of that race. A couple of really impressive stats for that race beyond just the world record time. :eek::eek::eek:er ran that one fast early and then fast late. That's extremely rare for a horse to be able to do that in a route race.

Yeah, the majority of races are won by horses who are in the mix early in the race whether they be on the lead, just outside the lead, or just behind the lead. At least on dirt. In turf route races closers do have a better chance just because of the nature in which those races are ran (slow early, fast late as opposed to fast early, slow late seen in turf sprints and most dirt races). A horse that has shown enough early speed to get involved and also showed enough sustainability late is going to be really hard to beat for any closers in the race. If you want to bet closers look for weak frontrunners who can't sustain late. Or closers who have enough early speed to at least keep in range early, and two or more frontrunner types of near equal ability that may pressure each other into the ground. Otherwise betting closers, especially short priced ones, are a pretty terrible bet over the long run.
 
:eek::eek::eek:er also set that world record by carrying 134 lbs (he was always forced to carry a high weight), which makes it that much more impressive. He also ran what is believed to be the fastest quarter mile section of a route race in history when he pulled off a 20 second flat for the second quarter of that race. A couple of really impressive stats for that race beyond just the world record time. :eek::eek::eek:er ran that one fast early and then fast late. That's extremely rare for a horse to be able to do that in a route race.

Yeah, the majority of races are won by horses who are in the mix early in the race whether they be on the lead, just outside the lead, or just behind the lead. At least on dirt. In turf route races closers do have a better chance just because of the nature in which those races are ran (slow early, fast late as opposed to fast early, slow late seen in turf sprints and most dirt races). A horse that has shown enough early speed to get involved and also showed enough sustainability late is going to be really hard to beat for any closers in the race. If you want to bet closers look for weak frontrunners who can't sustain late. Or closers who have enough early speed to at least keep in range early, and two or more frontrunner types of near equal ability that may pressure each other into the ground. Otherwise betting closers, especially short priced ones, are a pretty terrible bet over the long run.

Yeah sorry to make another boxing analogy {even tho I'm sure you're probably the least to be bothered by such a comparison] but watching that race I automatically thought of Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er as kind of like a prime Aaron Pryor. Just nonstop no matter how long he had to go, he never seemed to tire. That was impressive for sure.

How was he a bit nutty btw? He was just a horse who do weird shit sometimes or something? As you mentioned, I can definitely relate to that, haha.

Would you say jockeys are more important for turf races b/c they have the ability to hold their horses back a bit to make a later run in the turn/stretch. More likely to hold up then unleash the horse than a dirt race for instance?

Gotcha, basically high rated front running horses who have slow lp's [the more the better] against a closer type who has decent e/e2 numbers would be a race that you'd look more to. Otherwise steer clear.
 
Yeah sorry to make another boxing analogy {even tho I'm sure you're probably the least to be bothered by such a comparison] but watching that race I automatically thought of Dr. :eek::eek::eek:er as kind of like a prime Aaron Pryor. Just nonstop no matter how long he had to go, he never seemed to tire. That was impressive for sure.

How was he a bit nutty btw? He was just a horse who do weird shit sometimes or something? As you mentioned, I can definitely relate to that, haha.

Would you say jockeys are more important for turf races b/c they have the ability to hold their horses back a bit to make a later run in the turn/stretch. More likely to hold up then unleash the horse than a dirt race for instance?

Gotcha, basically high rated front running horses who have slow lp's [the more the better] against a closer type who has decent e/e2 numbers would be a race that you'd look more to. Otherwise steer clear.

:eek::eek::eek:er just had a mind of his own and refused to do what any human asked of him for the most part. He trained only when he felt like it, but loved the competition of a race. Relished when any horse tried to take him on. But he was quite eccentric as far as horses go, especially when there was a crown or camera tuned into him. He loved to dance around before his races. Bob his head up and down, and things like that in front of a camera. He was a show off basically, but a fun loving type when not in direct competition. In competition he was intense as a horse could be. Was never beaten on the square by another horse.

A jock would be more important in a turf route for sure just because the horse usually has to be shot off for the first half of the race at least. An experienced jock helps with that, but turf horses are naturally inclined to do that anyways because they were trained to do that. Being relaxed early and preferably being covered up by other horses (or the rail) is what turf routers are most comfortable doing.
 
:eek::eek::eek:er just had a mind of his own and refused to do what any human asked of him for the most part. He trained only when he felt like it, but loved the competition of a race. Relished when any horse tried to take him on. But he was quite eccentric as far as horses go, especially when there was a crown or camera tuned into him. He loved to dance around before his races. Bob his head up and down, and things like that in front of a camera. He was a show off basically, but a fun loving type when not in direct competition. In competition he was intense as a horse could be. Was never beaten on the square by another horse.

A jock would be more important in a turf route for sure just because the horse usually has to be shot off for the first half of the race at least. An experienced jock helps with that, but turf horses are naturally inclined to do that anyways because they were trained to do that. Being relaxed early and preferably being covered up by other horses (or the rail) is what turf routers are most comfortable doing.
you are right, my friend, that is my type of horse right there.

Thanks for the explanation, I still don't fully understand the difference between dirt and turf horses. I feel like many tend to run on both but seems if they specialize in one then that's a big plus, it seems.
 
Gotcha, basically high rated front running horses who have slow lp's [the more the better] against a closer type who has decent e/e2 numbers would be a race that you'd look more to. Otherwise steer clear.

Some times, but not neccesarily. It depends what the pace of today's race is going to demand of the front runner. If he is a horse that typically runs 100+ early pace figures and then slows down to 60-70 late, on the surface you might try to play against it. But what if the race today and the field he faces only demands that he needs to run 90-95 early pace figures? Obviously that means that he would have more energy in the tank to use late. Or vice versa, if his opposition makes it seem like he'll need to run a 105-110 early pace then he's very likely screwed in the late running. Make sense?
 
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