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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

There was once a long period of time when the Jockey Club Gold Cup was the most prestigious race in North America for older horses. It's still very prestigious obviously, but with the BC Classic around the past few decades the JCGC no longer has near the importance it once did.
 
Sup everybody. Just won some money tailing the other guys in kickboxing. I was curious how ya'll are faring on the ponies this weekend. Doing well I trust?
 
Sup everybody. Just won some money tailing the other guys in kickboxing. I was curious how ya'll are faring on the ponies this weekend. Doing well I trust?

I haven't made a bet in a few days, N. The last race I played was at Charles Town when I made a double win bet on a couple of horses and won with a horse named Our Charitable at 15/1 (had the highest DP going in). I played a few races at Finger Lakes by blind betting some races on Mon & Tues and went 2 for 8, but both went off quite short (2/1 and 8/5 I think), so those were losing days for me.

Blunt hit a nice 22/1 longshot winner last night at Remington, though.
 
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Some times, but not neccesarily. It depends what the pace of today's race is going to demand of the front runner. If he is a horse that typically runs 100+ early pace figures and then slows down to 60-70 late, on the surface you might try to play against it. But what if the race today and the field he faces only demands that he needs to run 90-95 early pace figures? Obviously that means that he would have more energy in the tank to use late. Or vice versa, if his opposition makes it seem like he'll need to run a 105-110 early pace then he's very likely screwed in the late running. Make sense?
Yessir, you are what the kids refer to as "dropping mad knowledge" today. I appreciate all of it. You are one smart motherfucker, and I mean that with full respect.
 
My first memories of horse racing when I was just a kid were actually of The Bid, and it may have even been in that walkover you alluded. Imagine that hey? A big G1 race and every other horse in training doesn't even bother to contest the race and instead concedes in advance. That says a lot about a horse right there if he's allowed a walkover in a G1 race. But you're 100% correct. The Bid was friggin "spectacular". There's three horse in my opinion over the last 50 years or so who breathed different air than all the others and Spectacular Bid was certainly one of them along with Dr :eek::eek::eek:er and Secretariat. They were just faster than all the rest. Just better. And they proved it time and time again unlike a lot of more recent horses who do it one or two times. I cringed every time I saw someone refer to Zenyatta, Pharoah, etc., as the "greatest ever". They weren't. Not even close, although they were certainly great in their own eras. They just weren't in contention for "greatest ever", though, unlike :eek::eek::eek:er and The Bid. Horses like that are on another level to what we've seen more recently. They were just faster and they didn't need to be babied or in need of a medication like lasix either unlike the more fragile breed we've seen over the last decade or two. They raced, they won, and then they repeated the process a couple/few weeks later.
The funny thing also is these super horses, like Bid and :eek::eek::eek:er, they weren't pegged as such from the beginning and just had that X factor. I'm watching these yearling sales, with people spending two million on War front colts, and to me, it's just insane. It's like all the freak horses end up coming from mediocre stock. Even the really, really good ones, like Chrome, were from bottom of the barrel breeding stock.
 
Holy shit!!! Got damn! Mendy is a FUCKING GANGSTER, SON! What happened to Diversify? Mends stuck with him and even passed him. You check those fractions, son?!?! DANG! Sharkey, your AV pulled off a huge one too!
 
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Hahahaha 45-1 won hahahahaha That's like Conor KO'ing Floyd in one round. And they say fighting is where the biggest upsets happen?
 
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Holy shit!!! Got damn! Mendy is a FUCKING GANGSTER, SON! What happened to Diversify? Mends stuck with him and even passed him. You check those fractions, son?!?! DANG! Sharkey, your AV pulled off a huge one too!

That was a huge effort by Mendelssohn. He ran by far the best race in that one despite the result. This is also the 2nd time I've been impressed with his effort, so I finally have to admit I was wrong about him. He is a good horse. Not one I'm anxious to bet. But he's good.

Nobody else was all that good in that race, though, besides Mendelssohn, and maybe Diversify to a lesser extent. Discreet Lover won at big odds, but he's also Discreet Lover. A G3 horse who has always been well beaten when going against G1 and G2 types. The fact that Thunder Snow, Gronkowski etc., lost to that horse despite getting perfect setups isn't exctly complimentary for them.
 
That was a huge effort by Mendelssohn. He ran by far the best race in that one despite the result. This is also the 2nd time I've been impressed with his effort, so I finally have to admit I was wrong about him. He is a good horse. Not one I'm anxious to bet. But he's good.

Nobody else was all that good in that race, though, besides Mendelssohn, and maybe Diversify to a lesser extent. Discreet Lover won at big odds, but he's also Discreet Lover. A G3 horse who has always been well beaten when going against G1 and G2 types. The fact that Thunder Snow, Gronkowski etc., lost to that horse despite getting perfect setups isn't exctly complimentary for them.
More interesting to me is the progress that this horse is making: he ran like a 2:00 and change one and a quarter. That is like 20 lengths better than Justify's Derby effort, so it is interesting to see his progress being made. He's all racehorse. Just had no idea he was so good.
 
@BluntTrauma21

If I can expand on the strong frontrunner or weak frontrunner discussion a little bit, one of the key indicators is the E1 and E2 comparison of a frontrunning type. If a horse generally runs higher E1 figures than E2 that's generally a very good sign that it's a weak frontrunner because it has a tendency to slow down well before the late stages and/or lacks athletic ability. The opposite can be true if a horse runs higher E2 than E1, but not always. It takes more of a look beyond that. But a horse in that situation is increasing it's pace during a portion of the race, and because the E2 figure almost always factors in the turn, it's generally a sign of a horse with some athletic ability as well.

e.g.

Horse A averages an E1 of 95, an E2 of 90, and an LP of 75 over a 3 race span at 8f
Horse B averages an E1 of 90, an E2 of 95, and an LP of 75 over a 3 race span at 8f

On the surface they may seem like the same horse. But they're not. Horse B is the better of the two just because he was able to show an ability to accelerate well into the race and did so around the turn. Horse A spent the race decelerating. Make sense?
 
@BluntTrauma21

If I can expand on the strong frontrunner or weak frontrunner discussion a little bit, one of the key indicators is the E1 and E2 comparison of a frontrunning type. If a horse generally runs higher E1 figures than E2 that's generally a very good sign that it's a weak frontrunner because it has a tendency to slow down well before the late stages and/or lacks athletic ability. The opposite can be true if a horse runs higher E2 than E1, but not always. It takes more of a look beyond that. But a horse in that situation is increasing it's pace during a portion of the race, and because the E2 figure almost always factors in the turn, it's generally a sign of a horse with some athletic ability as well.

e.g.

Horse A averages an E1 of 95, an E2 of 90, and an LP of 75 over a 3 race span at 8f
Horse B averages an E1 of 90, an E2 of 95, and an LP of 75 over a 3 race span at 8f

On the surface they may seem like the same horse. But they're not. Horse B is the better of the two just because he was able to show an ability to accelerate well into the race and did so around the turn. Horse A spent the race decelerating. Make sense?
Totally makes sense, thank you. Horse A blew his load a bit whereas B is increasing it's pace at a much more important portion of the race. Which is why I assume you/we like our E2 horse angles b/c they're making moves at more seminal junctions of the race. Hopefully that's a correct interpretation of what you're trying to convey. Then again you know me, you'll give me 2+2 and I'll come up with 5 or 6, haha.
 
Totally makes sense, thank you. Horse A blew his load a bit whereas B is increasing it's pace at a much more important portion of the race. Which is why I assume you/we like our E2 horse angles b/c they're making moves at more seminal junctions of the race. Hopefully that's a correct interpretation of what you're trying to convey. Then again you know me, you'll give me 2+2 and I'll come up with 5 or 6, haha.

Well, I hate to tell you different, bud, but the E2 angle really is sorta separate from that. So yeah, you got 5 out of that 2+2. Haha. The E2 angle I developed is just my variation of the hidden "middle move" angle that has existed for so long and by using pace figures to find it. Meaning that it's a lung opener for the horse to help him improve his racing condition early in it's current form cycle and to also sharpen him up for his next race. Which reminds me that I still need to explain these positive pace patterns and the concepts behind them to you like I told you last week I would. I'll get those off to you tomorrow. I still have to get to work on those Remington races for tomorrow first, though.
 
Well, I hate to tell you different, bud, but the E2 angle really is sorta separate from that. So yeah, you got 5 out of that 2+2. Haha. The E2 angle I developed is just my variation of the hidden "middle move" angle that has existed for so long and by using pace figures to find it. Meaning that it's a lung opener for the horse to help him improve his racing condition early in it's current form cycle and to also sharpen him up for his next race. Which reminds me that I still need to explain these positive pace patterns and the concepts behind them to you like I told you last week I would. I'll get those off to you tomorrow. I still have to get to work on those Remington races for tomorrow first, though.
I am a certified half retard. Thanks for the patience as always my friend.
 
Totally makes sense, thank you. Horse A blew his load a bit whereas B is increasing it's pace at a much more important portion of the race. Which is why I assume you/we like our E2 horse angles b/c they're making moves at more seminal junctions of the race. Hopefully that's a correct interpretation of what you're trying to convey. Then again you know me, you'll give me 2+2 and I'll come up with 5 or 6, haha.

Just be careful using that E1 and E2 comparison in low level claiming races, though. A lot (if not most) front running types in those lowest levels are going to look weak if just comparing those two categories against each other. And they are weak. But so is the rest of the horses in the field. They're all weak, low level horses.
 
Ain't it funny that we were wondering if any horse could run under 2 flat and DL ran 1:59.99?

Holy shit, that was the final time wasn't it. Just goes to show how ridiculously fast the Belmont track was today if a horse like Discreet Lover can break the 2 min mark by a sliver.
 
I am a certified half retard. Thanks for the patience as always my friend.
Nah bruv, you ain't half retard, Shark is just a genius. You'll find a lot of degenerates in horse racing but their IQ's are all off the charts. It's probably got a higher IQ median than MIT. Watch the show "Luck" about horse racing and done by a pony addict called David Milch, who has an IQ of 168 and also created Deadwood and NYPD Blue. It takes a lot of time to even be successful in this game, and even more awareness and intelligence. Once you get bit by the pony bug tho, your life is pretty much over. #Beware
 
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