The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    nice hit on 2nd leg
    Pick 3 last leg race 5 at belterra- I need the 2 or the 11 hoping for the 11 bigger payout!!!!!!!
    3rd leg of pick 6 I singled the 9
     
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  2. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    Bull shit finish
     
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  3. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    2nd leg of pick 3 at sa greyville race 3 I need the 1 or 9 hoping for the 9 longer shot
     
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  4. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    hit the 2nd leg at sa greyville race 3 final leg of pick 3 I need the 5 or the 6 to win either 20 or 69 if the 6 takes it not a bad payout
     
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  5. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    Race 2 at laurel I hit the 1 for 1$ at 25-1 and I have him in my dailydouble with the 3 for 2$ to pay out 2500$ come on 3333333333333333!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Nice to see the cheat get beat as the overwhelming 1/20 favourite earlier today in his Haskell prep.
     
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  7. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    just won a 2 dollar daily double leg 1 had inquiry TY for a total win of 136

    07/07/2019
    07:53:38 AM
    RACING TICKET
    8.00
    0.00

    • Risk: 8.00 - Win: 0.00
    • RAC - Jul-07 SGH R1 2.00 USD DDB 1,5/3,8
      Game start 07/07/2019 07:53 AM
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2019
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  8. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Not that it does us any good, T, but this group's race results since the Derby says we weren't complete idiots using these horses this race. Game Winner crushed in a stakes race by daylight in his first race after the Derby. Win Win Win won a stakes race last month when winning the Manila. Tacitus has finished 2nd both times since the Derby (Belmont and Jim Dandy). And now Tax backed up a respectable 4th in the Belmont with a nice win yesterday in the big Jim Dandy race beating Tacitus, War of Will, and others in the process. I didn't have a penny on the race, but that was nice to see Tax prove his quality and show that, yeah, he is pretty good afterall. The only one of your group here who hasn't done anything since the Derby was Improbable, who was terrible in the Preakness.

    Speaking of the Preakness. Or as someone else referred to it this morning, the Weakness, which I feel like calling it for now on. 9th, 7th, 1st, 9th, 5th. That's been War of Will's finishing position in his last 5 races with the one outlier in the sequence being the Weakness. The runner-up that race was Everfast who's last 6 races have seen him finish 8th, 9th, 5th, 2nd, 7th, 4th (by daylight). The only respectable finish that one has also came in the Weakness. To be fair the 3rd place finisher in Owendale did come back and win a stakes race his next time out, but that came at a 3rd rate track (Thistledown) and the best horse he had to beat in it was Math Wizard who is at best a lower stakes/allowance quality type. Owendale might turn out to be okay in time. Otherwise this year is just another example of how overrated the Weakness is as a race year after year. Oh, but we're supposed to believe it's a huge race because of some made up "triple crown" title that a sportwriter came up with a bunch of years ago. Ah, yeah. No thanks.

    Derby >>> Belmont >>> Travers

    Yep.

    The Travers coming up in a few weeks, and like most years, we should see a deep field with Game Winner, Tacitus, Tax, Maximum Security, Code of Honor, War of Will, and plenty of others all having early plans to run.

    A more fitting "triple crown" sequence for the Weakness would probably be;

    Weakness >>> 5k claimer at Penn National >>> 5k claimer at Zia Park

    All three of those places are dumps, and the quality of the three fields should be about equal. Yeah, makes sense. And yes, I know I'm awful.
     
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  9. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Just looking over my pre-race data for the races I've done with Tax (5 of them), and it's interesting how he always scores high in my ELD category. In fact, he's been the top ELD horse in 3 of the 5 races going in, including yesterday (as well as the Derby);

    #4 EP - 76.7, LP - 56.2, SP - 74.1, TT - 52.5, MP - 73.6, EL - 69.0, DP - 75.9, ELD - 71.8, SF - 90.4, BT - 99.5, AC - 225.6, PP - 154.1, AVG - 93.3
    #5 EP - 67.3, LP - 63.0, SP - 73.6, TT - 54.0, MP - 73.5, EL - 68.1, DP - 70.9, ELD - 68.2, SF - 107.3, BT - 111.0, AC - 216.0, PP - 139.6, AVG - 92.7
    #6 EP - 71.4, LP - 54.0, SP - 70.0, TT - 53.2, MP - 69.7, EL - 65.0, DP - 71.1, ELD - 74.4, SF - 95.9, BT - 104.9, AC - 208.4, PP - 143.9, AVG - 91.2
    #2 EP - 71.6, LP - 55.9, SP - 71.3, TT - 51.1, MP - 70.4, EL - 66.8, DP - 71.9, ELD - 76.5, SF - 104.1, BT - 105.4, AC - 210.0, PP - 145.0, AVG - 91.0
    #3 EP - 65.9, LP - 59.9, SP - 70.9, TT - 54.0, MP - 70.9, EL - 65.6, DP - 68.8, ELD - 70.7, SF - 96.9, BT - 104.8, AC - 199.0, PP - 136.1, AVG - 87.7
    #1 EP - 58.1, LP - 62.6, SP - 68.7, TT - 59.4, MP - 70.2, EL - 62.1, DP - 63.8, ELD - 59.4, SF - 102.8, BT - 105.3, AC - 181.1, PP - 123.2, AVG - 84.9

    Again, I didn't bet Tax yesterday (or anybody in this race) as I was mainly focused on the #4 horse and hoping to get good enough odds on that one. I didn`t, though, so I passed the race. Thankfully since that one only finished 3rd. The #5 (Tacitus) looked too strong to try to beat out of the exacta going in as that one had strong pace balance scores and a big edge when it came to counter energy. But Tax was a contender going in on my numbers. He was also the only horse who entered yesterday`s race with one of my positive pace patterns I use, as he earned a NPT in the Belmont, which helped him earn the 2nd best SF score going in behind Tacitus. I had fair odds on Tax at 5.3/1 (I posted these the other day at HRN), though, so the 9/2 odds he went off as wasn't worth the bet. Plus he profiled as the classic 3rd place finisher to me based on what I had.

    Still a few weeks to go yet, but I'm guessing there's a great chance Tax is going to be the ELD horse yet again in the Travers, as yesterdays race visually looked like another even energy race from him as he took the early lead, gave it up to War of Will down the backstretch, and then took over again off the turn. Nothing impressive as far as showing acceleration anywhere in the race. Just a nice, grinding and maintaining type of race to wear everybody down and get there first. Mind you, he's likely in danger of being overbet in the Travers based off of yesterday's race, so I doubt there's money to be made there with him. But it was still nice to see that yesterday.
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This guy (Maximum Security) did come back and win the Haskell last week, and he certainly wasn't anything close to 1/20 in that race. I do always get a big kick out of a 1/20 horse losing (or any really short priced horses), but mostly because it's their backers that are losing. I think any idiot who accepts 1/20 on any horse against any other horses in such a quick and chaotic sport sport like horse racing deserve to lose their money each and every time. Morons.

    Since it looks like I'm apparently in the mood to go over some of the concepts and ideas I've came up with on here, Maximum Security's last two races could be used as an example of the importance of position (i.e. outside speed) for some horses and how it can effect their late energy distribution.







    The first race was the Haskell prep in which Maximum Security lost. He got trapped as the inside horse by an outide speed type who was eventually able to wear him down late. The 2nd video is the Haskell itself, and those two reversed positional roles. This time it was the other horse (King for a Day) that was trapped as the inside horse with Maximum Security being allowed to take on an outside speed role this time around. What do you know, the results get reversed with Maximum Security getting the win and King for a Day nowhere to be found at the line. Mind you, King for a Day also entered that race as another type of horse I've always cautioned against betting on, and that's the types that jump up out of nowhere to run a race way better than it had ever done before, which is what this one did when winning that Haskell prep. Couple an expected regression off an unordinary big effort for the horse effecting it's physical energy with the effect an inside position can have on a horse's mental energy, and whoolah, what we saw is what we get a lot of times. A way overbet 5/2 horse giving up doing any competing before they hit the stretch and then basically being walked across the line.

    Seeing the effect on horses based on position is easy to see after the fact, though. Identifying those things before the race is a little trickier, especially when it comes to the right outside speed situation. The Haskell was one of the easy ones, as there were only 3 early types in the race and one of those looked terrible going in and ran terrible. That left King for a Day who left from the inside #1 post, and then Maximum Security who drew the outer most post as true early speed types. That one was obviously. Other times not so much. Not that particular situation would help one's bankroll any as Maximum Security was 3/5 in the Haskell I believe (my fair odds on him going into the Haskell was 6/5...mainly because he's the only one who scored a respectable number going in on my stuff). But it can help our bottom lines when we do identify them, though. Or when we can identify a short priced horse who figures to get trapped inside from any outside speed type (just one, any one) as play against opportunities.
     
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  11. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I've only bet 17 races all of July by the looks of it, which has to be my lowest monthly total since I opened this online account. Mainly due to the heatwave that went through the east coast a week or two ago that caused so many cancellations, and the fact that it's summer. It's not like I've gotten more disciplined or anything. The 28 races I bet in March were my previous low for this year and I thought that was an inactive period for me where I was mainly focused on betting Mahoning Valley. The 49 races I bet in April have been the high so far for me this year. Funny enough, both my low total (July) and my high total (April) have been my only two losing months this year. Not that that means anything.
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Interesting race coming up in a couple hours at Saratoga with the G2 Amsterdam (race 11);

    ==========

    #5 EP - 76.6, LP - 57.3, SP - 74.7, TT - 57.6, MP - 75.7, EL - 68.2, DP - 76.1, ELD - 73.4, SF - 101.8, BT - 108.9, AC - 242.3, PP - 154.2 (21.3%/15.1%) = 3.7/1
    #12 EP - 76.3, LP - 58.6, SP - 75.4, TT - 56.6, MP - 76.0, EL - 69.1, DP - 76.3, ELD - 75.2, SF - 97.8, BT - 106.7, AC - 240.2, PP - 154.2 (19.8%/17.4%) = 4.1/1

    #3 EP - 72.3, LP - 59.7, SP - 74.0, TT - 53.2, MP - 73.7, EL - 68.7, DP - 73.6, ELD - 77.4, SF - 104.1, BT - 112.4, AC - 229.4, PP - 147.3 (14.2%/16.2%) = 6.0/1 (8/1 ML)
    #7 EP - 78.5, LP - 53.2, SP - 73.1, TT - 57.1, MP - 73.9, EL - 66.8, DP - 76.3, ELD - 66.1, SF - 99.4, BT - 104.0, AC - 236.9, PP - 156.4 (13.2%/8.2%) = 6.6/1
    #6 EP - 68.6, LP - 60.4, SP - 72.6, TT - 57.1, MP - 73.4, EL - 66.3, DP - 71.0, ELD - 72.7, SF - 100.7, BT - 107.8, AC - 216.2, PP - 141.0 (6.7%/11.1%) = 14.0/1
    #8 EP - 66.0, LP - 62.9, SP - 72.9, TT - 59.4, MP - 74.3, EL - 66.0, DP - 69.9, ELD - 67.0, SF - 106.1, BT - 109.5, AC - 215.2, PP - 137.3 (6.5%/14.1%) = 14.4/1 (10/1 ML)
    ---
    #10 EP - 73.0, LP - 56.3, SP - 72.3, TT - 53.4, MP - 72.0, EL - 67.0, DP - 73.1, ELD - 75.7, SF - 91.4, BT - 102.0, AC - 215.5, PP - 147.5 (5.6%/5.5%) = 16.7/1
    #1 EP - 70.7, LP - 53.5, SP - 69.3, TT - 53.1, MP - 69.1, EL - 64.4, DP - 70.5, ELD - 74.5, SF - 94.2, BT - 103.6, AC - 203.7, PP - 142.6 (3.1%/2.6%) = 31.0/1
    #2 EP - 71.3, LP - 53.3, SP - 69.5, TT - 51.9, MP - 68.9, EL - 64.9, DP - 70.8, ELD - 73.7, SF - 93.8, BT - 102.9, AC - 203.4, PP - 143.5 (3.0%/2.4%) = 31.8/1
    #11 EP - 71.6, LP - 53.0, SP - 69.5, TT - 54.1, MP - 69.5, EL - 64.3, DP - 71.0, ELD - 73.0, SF - 91.2, BT - 100.7, AC - 204.1, PP - 144.0 (2.9%/2.3%) = 33.4/1
    #9 EP - 66.0, LP - 59.1, SP - 70.5, TT - 53.0, MP - 70.2, EL - 65.5, DP - 68.7, ELD - 71.7, SF - 97.2, BT - 104.8, AC - 196.9, PP - 136.0 (2.6%/4.4%) = 37.7/1
    #4 EP - 75.2, LP - 47.6, SP - 68.0, TT - 52.7, MP - 67.6, EL - 63.2, DP - 72.1, ELD - 62.5, SF - 78.3, BT - 86.4, AC - 192.0, PP - 148.8 (1.0%/0.8%) = 94.3/1

    ==========

    Conflict much with my top two here? They basically look like the same horse. On paper anyways. We'll see how they run the race, though, as it's a big field and the conflict there may not even develop at all because of spacing and positioning in such a big field.

    The #3 is quite appealing as at least an underneath type with him ranking 3rd overall in PB, 2nd overall in CE, 2nd in SF, and 1st in ELD. The #8 is also appealing as an underneath option with it's late energy and counter energy profiles, as well as being tops in my SF category (none in the field have my patterns). Price depending all around of course.
     
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This one came back #12, #6, #5, #3.

    I played the #3 to W/P at 11/1 and he lost all chance at the break when he basically fell to his knees and started 5-10 lengths behind everybody else. But that only cost him a placing at best, though, as the #12 won by a summer's worth of daylight while very nearly breaking the Saratoga track record in the process (0.24 off or something like that). Huge race from that one.
     
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  14. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Interesting, Shark. Seeing horses that you've keyed in on run well after the fact is never a bad thing in my mind. It tells me that your system is working the way it's supposed to. There's also going to be variance but the name of the game is long term profit as you well know.

    Anyway, good seeing you around bud. Hope all is well. I'm so far out of the loop right now it's not even funny.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2019
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This #12 horse, Shancelot, was assigned a 121 BSF for that win yesterday. That's a huge, huge number for any horse, but especially so for a young 3 year-old at the halfway point in the year. Way bigger than he's ever ran before, and he'll probably be 1/5 or something crazy like that in his next race. Looking forward to him running again, and hopefully having something in his next race to play against that number.
     
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  16. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Well, I'd rather they win races on the days I play them, T. Haha. But yeah, it is kinda cool to see them go on to have the success they did.

    Cheers T.

    By the way, have you been betting the UFC much recently? I looked through your posting history a couple/few weeks ago (apologies for snooping like that :oops:) and I don't think I noticed many plays from you recently. Mind you, with it being summer I wouldn't blame you for taking some time way from the wagering game seeing as you're not an old degenerate like a lot of us are, and very likely have some kind of social life. Haha.
     
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  17. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Well if you mean working my regular job all day then working all night on a house I bought recently while only having time for a bit of sleep in between, then yes my social life is booming, haha.

    But to answer your question, I have been doing my usual UFC betting, just not quite as much and I haven't been posting my plays on the forum. I've really just been looking for lines that catch my eye, putting in a bit of leg work and placing a bet if I still feel the same way. I've been ending up with one or two plays per card for the most part and surprisingly it's been working out ok so far. I'm up a modest 9 units over the last six events, ending up in the black in all but one, where I broke even. I'm more than happy with those kind of results at the moment.
     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Hey, look at you. Congrats on the new house, T. That's a big one in my life. Sucks that you aren't getting much free time because of it, though. But I hope your still in that stage where you're feeling the pride and maybe a little bit of empowerment when working on it, thus makes things easier. Congrats, though, my friend. The king has got his castle.

    Awesome to see you're still crushing it too with the UFC. I got a bit puzzled there when I didn't see any plays from you just because you were on such a great streak last time I talked to you a couple months ago. And yeah, I can't really blame you for not posting plays because really, what good is there in doing so? Besides the little stroke to the egos I'm sure we all have when someone else acknowledges a winning bet we made, I'm not sure the benefits beyond opening up a discussion that I would doubt changes anybody's mind since all the regular UFC bettors here know what they are doing for the most part anyways. Otherwise I'm not sure.
     
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  19. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Thanks bud, appreciate the kind words. It's a little bit stressful at the moment but I know it'll be more than worth it in the long run.

    I've had about a 30u swing since that rough start to the year when you and Blunt gave me that pep talk, which isn't a crazy number by any means but I'm happy with it based on the small number of bets I've been making the past few months. As far as posting plays, I always did it mostly as a way of having everything kind of archived in case I ever wanted to look back with some more detail than I keep on the spreadsheet I use to track my bets. And of course, there's no denying that it's a good feeling to be able to come back and post your results if things go well for you.
     
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