The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    With only two horses having an above 12.5% random chance, one of those potentially offering up a lot of value, and with a potentially beatable favourite if the #4 takes the money I suspect he will (the #1 is 9/2 on ML, and #3 is 5/1 ML, so they could help value as well if they do take that kind of money), this is actually one of the easiest races to bet I've came across in a while as far as structuring goes.

    If value can be created with the #8 then it looks like a 2x4 exacta, and then two keys in the trifecta. If the #8 gets overbet where value can't be created then it becomes a 1x2 and 2x1 exacta option, or possibly even just a simple 3 horse exacta box if not wanting to get too cute. I don't do place probabilities for turf races, but if I did using the same concepts as I do for dirt, the #5 would look quite strong in that department as opposed to it's win probability I have for it. Thus I'll be a little more forgiving of that one's odds compared to the 10/1 fair odds I have for it on the win end.

    If I do bet this race, most of my investment will be in W/P'ing the #6 horse anyways if I do get a good price, which I should considering. Exotics are just extras.
     
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  2. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    It looks like the public might find the #6 horse as well. Based on the early daily double wagering for race 8 it may go off 2nd choice behind the #4. That's not good, but we'll see if it correlates into that in the race 9 pools themselves.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    The #6 may be closer to be the public's top choice than it is it's 3rd choice since not much is separating the #4 and #6 in the daily doubles. That kinda sucks.
     
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  4. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Still a few minutes to go but I'm thinking as far as exotics go;

    #6 over #2, #5, #8 exactas for $10 each
    #8 over #2, #5, #6 exactas for $5 each
    Then keying both the #6 and #8 in 1st, 2nd, 3rd with the #2 and #5 filling out the other spot in trifectas

    The #6 is currently 4/1 with a few minutes to post, and I'd obviously be interested in straight betting that one at that price. But we'll see where the late action goes and how it impacts the #6's odds.
     
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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    #5, #6, #4, #8 was the finish.
     
  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Yes, exactly.
     
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  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    A head difference between the $38 loss I ended up suffering that race, and a $375 profit I just missed out on (the #6 over #5 exacta would have paid 36/1). With the #6 focused on another horse late, the #5 basically snuck up and kinda stole it from me. Haha. The bastard. That's okay. I can live with all that. What I didn't like was how the #6 got pounded from 4/1 down to 2/1 in the last minute (I figured he'd be 3/1 based on will pays), which pretty much ruined the value in about half of my plays.

     
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  8. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    In hindsight, the #8 over #2 was the only combo that offered value at the end if using the #8 on top, so the 1x2 and 2x1 exacta (keying the #6) or 3 horse exacta box (using #2, #5, #6) would have been the smart plays afterall. Not just because of the #5, #6 exacta hitting either at 70/1 or whatever it was. But from a last minute pre-race value perspective.
     
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  9. GrantSorenson

    GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    Unlucky but you were clearly on the value side. Nice capping
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Cheers Grant. Yeah, I can live with being unlucky every now and then since the reverse of that should even it out over the long run.
     
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  11. GrantSorenson

    GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    The race was set up for a closer because they went off fast. Unfortunately the #6 was just nabbed on the line. It happens. And yeah, looking at it from a long term perspective is what it's all about, as we already know ;)
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    That was an outlier pace scenario for sure with how fast it was ran early. Especially on the turf.
     
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Some times potential opportunities come up in even the smallest of fields;

    ==========

    Race 1 at Woodbine;

    -----

    BP;

    #1 EP - 64.9, LP - 48.8, SP - 63.4, TT - 52.1, MP - 62.9, EL - 59.1, DP - 64.6, ELD - 74.4, SF - 82.1, BT - 96.2, AC - 165.2, PP - 130.8, NF - 55.9, AVG - 78.5 (39.2%/34.4%) = 1.5/1
    #2 EP - 59.7, LP - 50.2, SP - 61.7, TT - 53.1, MP - 61.5, EL - 57.2, DP - 61.1, ELD - 76.5, SF - 80.7, BT - 96.0, AC - 149.3, PP - 122.0, NF - 53.1, AVG - 75.6 (19.7%/29.2%) = 4.1/1
    #4 EP - 60.3, LP - 51.2, SP - 62.7, TT - 48.2, MP - 61.1, EL - 59.5, DP - 61.9, ELD - 75.9, SF - 79.0, BT - 94.4, AC - 146.5, PP - 123.4, NF - 55.6, AVG - 75.4 (18.8%/27.2%) = 4.3/1
    #3 EP - 68.7, LP - 39.8, SP - 59.7, TT - 51.1, MP - 59.0, EL - 55.9, DP - 64.7, ELD - 59.4, SF - 81.7, BT - 89.4, AC - 155.7, PP - 134.7, NF - 48.9, AVG - 74.5 (15.2%/3.9%) = 5.6/1 (1/1 ML fave)
    #5 EP - 60.7, LP - 43.5, SP - 58.0, TT - 48.9, MP - 56.7, EL - 54.9, DP - 59.8, ELD - 72.0, SF - 75.5, BT - 90.0, AC - 130.8, PP - 121.7, NF - 53.4, AVG - 71.2 (7.0%/5.3%) = 13.4/1

    -----

    CE;

    #1 EP - 64.9, LP - 48.8, SP - 63.4, TT - 52.1, MP - 62.9, EL - 59.1, DP - 62.3, ELD - 74.4, SF - 82.1, BT - 96.2, AC - 156.2, PP - 126.5, NF - 55.9, AVG - 77.3
    #2 EP - 59.7, LP - 50.2, SP - 61.7, TT - 53.1, MP - 61.5, EL - 57.2, DP - 62.3, ELD - 76.5, SF - 80.7, BT - 97.4, AC - 157.2, PP - 125.1, NF - 53.1, AVG - 76.6
    #4 EP - 60.3, LP - 51.2, SP - 62.7, TT - 48.2, MP - 61.1, EL - 59.5, DP - 63.4, ELD - 75.9, SF - 79.0, BT - 96.2, AC - 153.2, PP - 125.8, NF - 55.6, AVG - 76.3
    #5 EP - 60.7, LP - 43.5, SP - 58.0, TT - 48.9, MP - 56.7, EL - 54.9, DP - 56.3, ELD - 72.0, SF - 75.5, BT - 91.5, AC - 116.4, PP - 114.1, NF - 53.4, AVG - 69.4
    #3 EP - 68.7, LP - 39.8, SP - 59.7, TT - 51.1, MP - 59.0, EL - 55.9, DP - 54.8, ELD - 59.4, SF - 81.7, BT - 83.0, AC - 107.9, PP - 115.0, NF - 48.9, AVG - 68.1

    ==========


    The #1 was 7/2 on the ML, so I'll look for a win bet there and then maybe play #1 / #2, #4 exactas for $10 each, and then #2, #4 / #1 exactas for $5 each. If they're all the right prices come race time that is.
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    If anyone is interested in betting it, here's the field for tomorrow's Belmont Stakes along with morning line odds and the current odds in brackets based on the early wagering so far;

    #1 Joevia 30/1 ML (17/1)
    #2 Everfast 12/1 ML (13/1)
    #3 Master Fencer 8/1 ML (10/1)
    #4 Tax 15/1 ML (10/1)
    #5 Bourbon War 12/1 ML (8/1)
    #6 Spinoff 15/1 (12/1)
    #7 Sir Winston 12/1 ML (8/1)
    #8 Intrepid Heart 10/1 ML (6/1)
    #9 War of Will 2/1 ML (4/1)
    #10 Tacitus 9/5 ML (2/1)
     
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    *a half hour later after having done the race*

    Yuck.
     
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  16. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    ==========

    Win probability and fair odds;

    #8 - 16.6% = 5.0/1
    #10 - 16.3% = 5.2/1
    #4 - 14.1% = 6.1/1
    #9 - 12.5% = 7.0/1
    #1 - 11.9% = 7.4/1
    #6 - 7.6% = 12.1/1
    #5 - 7.1% = 13.1/1
    #7 - 6.3% = 14.9/1
    #3 - 4.6% = 20.6/1 (one race)
    #2 - 2.9% = 33.7/1

    ==========

    Both pace balance and counter energy scores put into ranges as far as exotic wagering combinations go;

    #10 EP - 61.0, LP - 60.6, SP - 68.9, TT - 55.6, MP - 69.3, EL - 63.3, DP - 72.5, ELD - 64.8, SF - 100.8, BT - 93.3, AC - 204.2, PP - 143.2, AVG - 88.1
    #8 EP - 66.3, LP - 55.4, SP - 68.3, TT - 54.1, MP - 68.3, EL - 63.2, DP - 68.9, ELD - 76.7, SF - 96.5, BT - 101.7, AC - 196.3, PP - 138.6, AVG - 87.9
    #8 EP - 66.3, LP - 55.4, SP - 68.3, TT - 54.1, MP - 68.3, EL - 63.2, DP - 67.8, ELD - 76.7, SF - 96.5, BT - 106.3, AC - 194.6, PP - 135.4, AVG - 87.7
    #4 EP - 64.4, LP - 56.3, SP - 68.0, TT - 55.5, MP - 68.5, EL - 62.5, DP - 69.4, ELD - 73.5, SF - 94.0, BT - 97.4, AC - 201.0, PP - 140.3, AVG - 87.4
    -
    #1 EP - 67.9, LP - 51.8, SP - 66.9, TT - 56.7, MP - 67.7, EL - 61.1, DP - 67.8, ELD - 75.3, SF - 93.1, BT - 103.1, AC - 193.6, PP - 137.0, AVG - 86.8
    #9 EP - 66.4, LP - 53.1, SP - 66.9, TT - 55.8, MP - 67.5, EL - 61.4, DP - 67.1, ELD - 78.3, SF - 93.6, BT - 104.8, AC - 191.2, PP - 134.9, AVG - 86.7
    #9 EP - 66.4, LP - 53.1, SP - 66.9, TT - 55.8, MP - 67.5, EL - 61.4, DP - 66.8, ELD - 78.3, SF - 93.6, BT - 102.0, AC - 189.7, PP - 135.6, AVG - 86.4
    #4 EP - 64.4, LP - 56.3, SP - 68.0, TT - 55.5, MP - 68.5, EL - 62.5, DP - 66.7, ELD - 73.5, SF - 94.0, BT - 102.8, AC - 192.3, PP - 133.4, AVG - 86.3
    --
    #10 EP - 61.0, LP - 60.6, SP - 68.9, TT - 55.6, MP - 69.3, EL - 63.3, DP - 65.4, ELD - 64.8, SF - 100.8, BT - 104.6, AC - 183.5, PP - 127.7, AVG - 85.5
    #1 EP - 67.9, LP - 51.8, SP - 66.9, TT - 56.7, MP - 67.7, EL - 61.1, DP - 65.9, ELD - 75.3, SF - 93.1, BT - 99.2, AC - 185.2, PP - 134.9, AVG - 85.5
    #3 EP - 47.8, LP - 69.5, SP - 67.8, TT - 58.8, MP - 69.1, EL - 61.3, DP - 77.4, ELD - 40.3, SF - 103.1, BT - 73.5, AC - 206.2, PP - 148.1, AVG - 85.2
    #5 EP - 58.5, LP - 58.6, SP - 66.4, TT - 55.4, MP - 66.8, EL - 61.0, DP - 69.9, ELD - 64.8, SF - 99.0, BT - 92.6, AC - 190.5, PP - 138.1, AVG - 85.1
    #7 EP - 57.0, LP - 61.0, SP - 67.1, TT - 55.4, MP - 67.5, EL - 61.7, DP - 71.8, ELD - 60.2, SF - 96.2, BT - 87.6, AC - 193.5, PP - 140.8, AVG - 85.0
    #6 EP - 65.6, LP - 52.9, SP - 66.4, TT - 53.0, MP - 66.1, EL - 61.6, DP - 66.4, ELD - 78.8, SF - 88.4, BT - 101.0, AC - 180.9, PP - 133.4, AVG - 84.5
    #6 EP - 65.6, LP - 52.9, SP - 66.4, TT - 53.0, MP - 66.1, EL - 61.6, DP - 66.3, ELD - 78.8, SF - 88.4, BT - 100.4, AC - 181.0, PP - 133.8, AVG - 84.5
    ---
    #5 EP - 58.5, LP - 58.6, SP - 66.4, TT - 55.4, MP - 66.8, EL - 61.0, DP - 62.8, ELD - 64.8, SF - 99.0, BT - 103.2, AC - 169.2, PP - 122.6, AVG - 82.4
    #2 EP - 56.0, LP - 56.1, SP - 63.6, TT - 56.8, MP - 64.4, EL - 57.9, DP - 67.0, ELD - 65.3, SF - 92.1, BT - 90.4, AC - 175.9, PP - 132.7, AVG - 81.5
    #7 EP - 57.0, LP - 61.0, SP - 67.1, TT - 55.4, MP - 67.5, EL - 61.7, DP - 62.4, ELD - 60.2, SF - 96.2, BT - 99.1, AC - 163.4, PP - 120.6, AVG - 81.0
    #2 EP - 56.0, LP - 56.1, SP - 63.6, TT - 56.8, MP - 64.4, EL - 57.9, DP - 60.1, ELD - 65.3, SF - 92.1, BT - 98.1, AC - 151.8, PP - 117.3, AVG - 78.3
    #3 EP - 47.8, LP - 69.5, SP - 67.8, TT - 58.8, MP - 69.1, EL - 61.3, DP - 58.1, ELD - 40.3, SF - 103.1, BT - 96.0, AC - 143.9, PP - 106.9, AVG - 76.9

    ==========

    #10, #8, #8, #4 / #10, #8, #8, #4, #1, #9, #9, #4 / #10, #8, #8, #4, #1, #9, #9, #4, #10, #1, #3, #5, #7, #6, #6 ???

    Ah, yeah. No thanks. Too much of a messy picture both on the win end and in exotics. I don't want to use the #10 or #9 at all at what their prices will be, but I'm not exactly seeing reasons to play against them either, especially with them having the top counter energy and even energy profiles respectively. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe a couple of small exactas with #8 over #1, #4 for shits & giggles just to have something on the race. But I can't do anything beyond that with this race unfortunately.
     
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  17. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Thanks for sharing, Shark. Unfortunate that the triple crown races haven’t been good for betting this year. I guess I can’t complain though after how well last year went for me. Best of luck with those exactas if you do decide to play them bud.
     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I probably won't even bother with the race, T. Maybe just a few bucks on the #8 to win if he's okay odds. But we'll see. There's a couple of undercard races that look like decent betting races (the Woody Stephens especially) and Woodbine should have 2 or 3 as well, so I'll get my bets in at some point today.
     
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  19. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    7,8, 10 on the Belmont stakes 2day boys who ya got?
     
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  20. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    1st bet of today Belterra pick 3 and pick 6
    I had the 7 winning the first leg of race 3 so 2nd leg I need the 7 or 9
    I got 2 pick 6 tickets alive after 1st race I need the 9 or the 5 in 2nd leg
     
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