The only way I can see Conor winning is under the assumption that we are wrong about his grappling.

[tequilaboy]

Under the assumption that our assumption is wrong...

 

[Author]

It's not that simple, Khabib hasn't fought any striker that's NEARLY as dangerous, accurate and puts down high-level guys frequently. Like I said in some previous thread Barboza, MJ and Iaquinta are decent to good strikers but all 3 combined have 1 KO/TKO of a top-10 opponent. How many top-5 guys has Conor finished?

Point being, you have to also take into account that Khabib's grappling will definitely be harder to impose on Conor than someone like Barboza and it definitely is if he takes a shot or two at the start.

This is the truth. Conor's timing is bananas and although I was admittedly rooting for Nate and went completely apeshit when Nate choked him out, I am not a blind fool to how often Conor was beating Nate to the punch before those later rounds. And I don't think for a second any of Khabib's opponents would fare so well in the ring against Mayweather Jr.

That being said it goes both ways; Conor hasn't faced anyone with the same caliber of pressure/grappling ability as Khabib. There is no guaranteed call to make here. It's tempting to say Khabib is the safer bet, but that was before I looked up the statistics of how many strikes his opponents land on him throughout the fight. Albeit it's not many strikes, but I don't think Conor needs that many.

 

[Airdack]

I fully believe hes going to shock alot of people with this grappling...if you watch his fights in cage warriors...there were fights where he grappled and did very well...I remember him tapping out a bjj black belt with a RNC...and considering for this camp, he's most likely paid a lot of time to his wrestling, bjj and tdd. he may never have as good a grappling as khabib, but he doesn't have to...it's not a wrestling match..all conor needs is it to be good enough, to get up if taken down and keep it standing as much as possible...if people think khabib is just going to run through conor, they're in for the shock of their life...

Not saying he will be even near khabibs level but he showed great fundementals in cage warriors, outwrestle max, slick guard passing vs siver, and edgy brah (who had no skin in the game) said he saw mcgregor roll and hes legit.

What no one is bringing up is we havent seen him grapple since he became butt buddies with dannis. Dannis might be a tool but that tool happens to be a nogi world champ. 1 on 1 training with Dannis must have closed some of those grappling holes and at the very least given Conor more confidence on the ground, which naturally tranisitions to the feet.

 

[bigconan]

Not saying he will be even near khabibs level but he showed great fundementals in cage warriors, outwrestle max, slick guard passing vs siver, and edgy brah (who had no skin in the game) said he saw mcgregor roll and hes legit.

What no one is bringing up is we havent seen him grapple since he became butt buddies with dannis. Dannis might be a tool but that tool happens to be a nogi world champ. 1 on 1 training with Dannis must have closed some of those grappling holes and at the very least given Conor more confidence on the ground, which naturally tranisitions to the feet.

This is what I believe as well...I actually had this weird dream, day dream, where conor goes out and takes khabib down...and taps him...of course I don't see that happen..but conor is going to surprise alot of people with his grappling...many think cause of what happened in the first diaz fight, his grappling sucks..all based on that one fight...when you hurt, wobbled and also gassed, your not going to be very effective.

 

[legedema]

Lmao, 99% of Sherdog is wrong about everything.

And u r out of 99%

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

Conor's grappling is no where near Trujillo's level for reference. We may see the first TKO by shitting themselves when Khabib lands the takedown on Conor.

Conor's grappling is light years better than Trujillo's.

 

[ANIM4L]

Conor's grappling is light years better than Trujillo's.

You're delusional. Trujillo has a lifetime of wrestliing. State Champ and 4 time AA. He even got a TD on Khabib and passed his guard. This was when Abel was a threat in the division.

Conor got taken down and tapped out by Duffy, Sitnekov, and Diaz. Chad Mendes had him in a crucifix, nuts all in his face. LOL

 

[Blayt7hh]

Conor is actually a very good grappler. Even for the top of the UFC his grappling is very good. The problem is though that Khabib at least seems like he is on an entirely different level from every other fighter at it. If Conor had the gas tank of Tony Ferguson, he might survive long enough to wear khabib out. However, we know he doesn't. He gassed after 2 roudns against Nate in the first fight. Sure he was able to go 5 at a much more measured pace in the rematch, but Khabib isn't going to let him do that in this fight.

 

[Mysterio]

Conor's TDD% is worse than Barboza and Micheal Johnson, and that is being generous to Conor because those guys have fought way more, bigger, better wrestlers, skewing the % in Conor's favor.

 

[MMAcolyte]

Even if all those assumptions are correct, I think it's irrelevant, as the OP doesn't address Conor's most glaring weakness....which is cardio.

I think Conor's grappling is a lot better than he gets credit for, but even if it's really good, his atrocious cardio will be the deciding factor if he can't get a 1st round stoppage imo.

 

[Kuggoz]

Let me put it different then. Conor has not fought a fighter that tried to completely avoided striking (from round 1). The closest was Mendes, but not completely, he did try to exchange and he was successful until he gassed.

That's absolutely true, but I find it odd when people who acknowledge this still keep saying that Khabib has already seen everything Conor has to offer in MJ or Barboza.

 

[Kid Killashaw]

I believe the chance of this is very slim but.... 99% of sherdog might be wrong about Conor's grappling skills and most professional fighters as well.

Lots of assumptions, but let's assume:
1. Two first loses doesn't tell anything about Conor's grappling skills. Explanation: While this is not to much of an assumption (most fighters evolve at different rates). Lets assume that Conor evolved drastically due "natural talent", athleticism and huge efforts.
2. The tore ACL really affected his TDD against Mendes.
3. He completely gave up against Diaz and the submission loss doesn't give us any information about his real grappling skills. .

So what if (just what if) we were all wrong and Conor grappling skills and he's are much better than what we thought. If he has the ability to defend himself on the ground without much damage, to be able to stand back up, to defend a couple of TD's then I can see Conor TKO/KO at later rounds. Again this is coming from a Khabib fan.

Again lot of assumptions but I'm giving you that. Everything is possible after all.

It was a tear in his MCL, not ACL. Huge difference. But it still impacts his ability to stop takedowns as it zaps your strength and stability. Not many other fighters would have fought with that sort of injury...if any.

 

[TallGHunter]

Even if Cunner is 10x better than I think, he won't be 1/2 as Google as the Bib. GSP is the only know athlete to catch up to lifetime wrestler s

 

[Noleggeisha]

I believe the chance of this is very slim but.... 99% of sherdog might be wrong about Conor's grappling skills and most professional fighters as well.

Lots of assumptions, but let's assume:
1. Two first loses doesn't tell anything about Conor's grappling skills. Explanation: While this is not to much of an assumption (most fighters evolve at different rates). Lets assume that Conor evolved drastically due "natural talent", athleticism and huge efforts.
2. The tore ACL really affected his TDD against Mendes.
3. He completely gave up against Diaz and the submission loss doesn't give us any information about his real grappling skills. .

So what if (just what if) we were all wrong and Conor grappling skills and he's are much better than what we thought. If he has the ability to defend himself on the ground without much damage, to be able to stand back up, to defend a couple of TD's then I can see Conor TKO/KO at later rounds. Again this is coming from a Khabib fan.

Again lot of assumptions but I'm giving you that. Everything is possible after all.

I’m surprised you don’t see Khabib is very open to a ko shot.

The best indication of Conor’s bad BJJ is his refusal to commit to any ground exchange with Nate, even after any the 3 knockdowns. Other than that, he really had nonoffense not defence against Chad on the ground.

Conor’s way to victory is TDD and boxing.

 

[Author]

I’m surprised you don’t see Khabib is very open to a ko shot.

The best indication of Conor’s bad BJJ is his refusal to commit to any ground exchange with Nate, even after any the 3 knockdowns. Other than that, he really had nonoffense not defence against Chad on the ground.

Conor’s way to victory is TDD and boxing.

Agree with keys to victory, but to be fair I don't think that's the best indicator to measure how bad his BJJ is.

Nate Diaz has three times as many submission finishes than he does knockouts. He's tied with Demian Maia for submissions, and only surpassed by Oliveira and (Royce) Gracie.

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point Conor's folks begged him not to follow Nate to the ground unless he's close to unconscious. Just seems like a safe play if your bread and butter is striking.

 

[ifindgifsforjackslack]

I hope everyones wrong.
Dno why everyones itching for a wash out in one of the biggest fights of the last 5 years.

I hope khabib takes him down and does some damage, I hope mcgregor gets back up and has khabib hurt. I hope its a back and forth fight where get to see both fighters really bite down and please the JBG.

 

[DublinDanny]

I bet against my boy Khabib with Iaquinta because those odds were golden.

Conor in near even.... betting on Conor is good way to lose money and a shit bet. I wouldn't even bet on Khabib here because you have to put up way too much to make anything and there is that punchers chance.

Best bets are huge underdogs who match up well.

Keep it to yourself and use it wisely.

https://mmajunkie.com/2015/11/vegas-dave-and-his-plan-to-bet-10000-against-ronda-rousey-at-ufc-193

Obviously your a betting man, the bookies are always worth a watch. The Irish bookies are obviously going to be biased so I checked the bookies in England. Khabib was favourite at 4/7 and Conor at 5/2 a few days after the fight was announced. Checked again two days ago and it was Khabib still at 4/7 but Conor down to 3/2.Expect the odds on Conor to keep dropping the nearer to the fight. What does that tell you ?

 

[migeru29]

Chad and Eddie wanted to do that too. As Eddie said, beating Conor was easy, all one has to do is take him down and grind him out, yet no one has been able to do that in his whole career. He has gave up quick submission but no one has beat him by controlling him and beating him up. Khabib is the best at that, but Conor is the best at making people lose their game plans and go in to survival mode.
If Khabib gets tagged and concussed, his game plan will go out the window.

Eddie totally went against the original game plan. He said that himself and felt dumb about doing that shit. If you want to to believe that Conor made him not follow the game plan that's you theory but that doesn't mean Eddie is lying.

Mendes was successful until he gassed (no training camp)

 

[n.diazismylife1999]

You're delusional. Trujillo has a lifetime of wrestliing. State Champ and 4 time AA. He even got a TD on Khabib and passed his guard. This was when Abel was a threat in the division.

Conor got taken down and tapped out by Duffy, Sitnekov, and Diaz. Chad Mendes had him in a crucifix, nuts all in his face. LOL

Wrestling =/= grappling

Conor's grappling >>>>>> Trujillo's grappling

 

[ANIM4L]

Wrestling =/= grappling

Conor's grappling >>>>>> Trujillo's grappling

This line is so good you need to read it again.

Conor got taken down and tapped out by Duffy, Sitnekov, and Diaz. Chad Mendes had him in a crucifix, nuts all in his face. LOL