The One Landed Punch in MMA is resulting in too many upsets, Luck is playing too big a factor

[HerpDerp]

MMA and fighting in itself are of extremely high variance when it comes to different potential outcomes. Chaos control is the name of the game if one wants to have prolonged success at the very top, but when guys like GSP and Cruz get shat on, it doesn't seem like MMA fans are able to grasp, or even want to grasp this concept.

Basically, to be able to go on a huge win streak means eliminating those exact factors that make a back and forth battle exciting for the majority of the viewer base, ie. the unpredictability factor; "Don't blink" and all that jazz.

 

[ameeksingh]

with MMA you have the smaller gloves but more importantly, when a punch is landed, with the follow up, there is no chance to recover like a knockdown in boxing

That;s all good and well, but it is resulting in way too many upsets

Fighters are the top are all very skilled nowadays, there are no muppets

Anyone can land that one strike

Imagine if tennis matches were won by one great point won by the lesser player or one touchdown in the NFL or one basket in the NBA

I don't mind upsets in sport, its good for the sport but in MMA there are too many and they just do not feel earned

If someone outside the Top 10 beats Federer or Murray in a grand slam over 5 sets they have definitely earnt it

with MMA you have the smaller gloves but more importantly, when a punch is landed, with the follow up, there is no chance to recover like a knockdown in boxing

That;s all good and well, but it is resulting in way too many upsets

Fighters are the top are all very skilled nowadays, there are no muppets

Anyone can land that one strike

Imagine if tennis matches were won by one great point won by the lesser player or one touchdown in the NFL or one basket in the NBA

I don't mind upsets in sport, its good for the sport but in MMA there are too many and they just do not feel earned

If someone outside the Top 10 beats Federer or Murray in a grand slam over 5 sets they have definitely earnt it

Luck is preparation meeting opportunity. Isn't this a popular saying?

 

[superpunch]

Basically, to be able to go on a huge win streak means eliminating those exact factors that make a back and forth battle exciting for the majority of the viewer base, ie. the unpredictability factor; "Don't blink" and all that jazz.

Nah you can do it like Anderson did and KO everyone. Like Conor will do.

 

[HerpDerp]

Nah you can do it like Anderson did and KO everyone. Like Conor will do.

Yeah well, I wouldn't agree that Anderson was a fighter to engage in back and forth battles per se. Anderson utilized the very tools that gave him the biggest advantage relative to his opponents and did so in a very calculated manner.

What I'm saying is that you can't just look at his style in a vacuum, but rather have to dissect it into smaller pieces and understand that there's a more sophisticated game being played than you could ever imagine. It's not just baiting his opponent into things and utilizing some sort of godlike reflexes to overcome his already outmatched foes (although this has been the case a few times), but rather a strategically methodical dismantling.

When his opponents refused to participate in that game with him, his fights often became extremely uneventful and boring (for reference, the Leites and Maia fights).

 

[Chronicsonic]

You're right ts lucky punches should be banned. Also if you're knocked out from a lucky punch the ref should wait til both fighters are ok and resume the fight

 

[bungyo]

That's the sport. Stick with tennis if it offends you.

 

[DocK]

Just because something is theoretically unlikely to happen often doesn't mean the precedent was luck, random, a fluke, or whatever else you want to call it. Each fight is a one-off event with its own unique set of conditions and variables.

If Conor and Aldo fought 100 separate times, it's doubtful Aldo ends up flatlined in 13 seconds often. But if each of those 100 matches started with Aldo rushing in blind and reckless straight at Conor, I would bet an awful lot on Conor being able to repeat that opening left hand shot at a high rate.

 

[tipofmitt]

Um.....it is a fight.....ever been in one? Call it luck if ya want, but a win is a win. I hate hearing that " he would win 9\10 times". How do you know?

 

[ermac88]

We're not going to come to any common ground since you see the world in absolutes and can't understand that landing punches and kicks isn't completely different than a tennis pro slamming in 100+ mph serves. Sometimes he's going to hit the net. Sometimes he's going to miss the legal serving area. That all happens before the person receiving the serve tries to hit the ball back.

Fighters are moving around quite a bit during a fight. It is not as simple as attacker presses A and defender presses B or they're knocked out. This is why most fights have dozens or hundreds of punches thrown with nobody being knocked out.

Do you suppose that the defense of Max Holloway is 69x better than that of Jose Aldo? Aldo only lasted 13 seconds despite being unbeaten for a decade and not losing a single fight since then. Max lasted all 15 minutes. Why doesn't everyone get flat-lined every time Conor lands the big left? There's no luck involved - right? If the punch lands then instant KO.

Sorry, the world is vastly more nuanced than that. Split second variations in placement, momentum, previous damage and a hundred other factors all decide whether any given blow is the one that results in a KO. Again - this is why it's highly unlikely that Conor smashes anybody in 13 seconds - much less someone of Aldo's caliber.

This is just odd especially considering you claim to have practiced combat sports
You never hear fighters especially professional and champions talk about a "lucky punch".

There is a tangible reason Liddel was knocked out repeatedly in the latter part of his career, its not lack of luck.
There is a tangible reason Jones was never knocked out, its not luck.
There is a tangible reason Hunt puts guys to sleep, its not luck.

By your bizarre rational, all knockouts are a product of "luck".

Specify knockouts that didnt use "Luck" in your opinion?

 

[ermac88]

Just because something is theoretically unlikely to happen often doesn't mean the precedent was luck, random, a fluke, or whatever else you want to call it. Each fight is a one-off event with its own unique set of conditions and variables.

If Conor and Aldo fought 100 separate times, it's doubtful Aldo ends up flatlined in 13 seconds often. But if each of those 100 matches started with Aldo rushing in blind and reckless straight at Conor, I would bet an awful lot on Conor being able to repeat that opening left hand shot at a high rate.

exactly!

 

[jester2trife]

90% of Sherdog getting laid, that's luck. But a fighter who trains hours upon hours to punch another fighter in the face, then landing, its not luck no matter how you slice it. It's the result said fighter was looking for...

 

[Toxxus]

This is just odd especially considering you claim to have practiced combat sports
You never hear fighters especially professional and champions talk about a "lucky punch".

There is a tangible reason Liddel was knocked out repeatedly in the latter part of his career, its not lack of luck.
There is a tangible reason Jones was never knocked out, its not luck.
There is a tangible reason Hunt puts guys to sleep, its not luck.

By your bizarre rational, all knockouts are a product of "luck".

Specify knockouts that didnt use "Luck" in your opinion?

Here are some "lucky punch" quotes from fighters - you are demonstrably dead wrong on this point.
Aldo: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mma-c...still--feels-like-the-champion-173530085.html
Anderson: http://www.mmamania.com/2013/9/25/4...on-silva-chris-weidman-ko-punch-was-lucky-mma
Cung Le: http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Cu...cky-Punch-in-UFC-on-Fuel-TV-6-Headliner-47277

I could go on.

The challenge with the declaration of a "lucky" punch is that you're usually working with a very small sample size so it's hard to differentiate between skill (something that can likely be re-produced) and luck (very low probability event that cannot be easily reproduced). I'll just keep working with the Conor vs. Aldo situation since it is the very definition of this problem.

1- Jose Aldo makes an aggressive lead-right bait to left-hook attack. The goal here is to draw Conor's right hand down defensively so he gets obliterated by the left-hook.
This largely works. Conor does indeed drop his right hand to parry the shot and Conor DOES get hit by the left-hook. The attack is partially successful and unlike most I don't consider this a stupid suicidal charge on Aldo's part. With a timing alteration of a hundreth of a second or two he might have landed this shot hard enough to drop Conor.
2- Conor makes a beautiful counter-left on Jose that instantly shuts the lights off. The question isn't whether there is skill involved - Conor has consistently shown he can deliver the big left on many opponents. The question is - What is the likelihood that in any given exchange that Conor drops former #1 P4P in the world Jose Aldo with a single fucking punch. I would literally take a bet on my house that Conor cannot repeat this outcome.

So, here's the crux. Normally if a fight plays out for at least 5-6 minutes you start to get a feel for who is consistently finding more success than their opponent. Who's landing more/better shots. Who is dominating the grappling. You get to see the fighter's showcase their skills and start to show who is, overall, the better fighter.

When the fight ends in 13 seconds you can be almost 100% certain that you didn't get to see enough fighting to make a good judgement call on who is really the better fighter and that the fighter who won in 13 seconds has virtually 0% chance of repeating that outcome - aka - luck.

If you had 100 fights between Jose and Conor and he lead with that exact same attack all 100x there is no chance in hell that Conor would KO Aldo all 100x.
* You'd have some fights where Aldo eats the fight, gets rocked, and continues.
* You'd have some fights where Aldo eats the fight, is not hurt, and continues.
* You'd have some fights where Aldo's left-hook clobbers Conor and he's the winner of a 13s fight.
* You'd have some fights where we'd get a Rocky-esque double KO or see two rocked fighters stumble away from each other.

 

[ermac88]

Here are some "lucky punch" quotes from fighters - you are demonstrably dead wrong on this point.
Aldo: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mma-c...still--feels-like-the-champion-173530085.html
Anderson: http://www.mmamania.com/2013/9/25/4...on-silva-chris-weidman-ko-punch-was-lucky-mma
Cung Le: http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Cu...cky-Punch-in-UFC-on-Fuel-TV-6-Headliner-47277

I could go on.

The challenge with the declaration of a "lucky" punch is that you're usually working with a very small sample size so it's hard to differentiate between skill (something that can likely be re-produced) and luck (very low probability event that cannot be easily reproduced). I'll just keep working with the Conor vs. Aldo situation since it is the very definition of this problem.

1- Jose Aldo makes an aggressive lead-right bait to left-hook attack. The goal here is to draw Conor's right hand down defensively so he gets obliterated by the left-hook.
This largely works. Conor does indeed drop his right hand to parry the shot and Conor DOES get hit by the left-hook. The attack is partially successful and unlike most I don't consider this a stupid suicidal charge on Aldo's part. With a timing alteration of a hundreth of a second or two he might have landed this shot hard enough to drop Conor.
2- Conor makes a beautiful counter-left on Jose that instantly shuts the lights off. The question isn't whether there is skill involved - Conor has consistently shown he can deliver the big left on many opponents. The question is - What is the likelihood that in any given exchange that Conor drops former #1 P4P in the world Jose Aldo with a single fucking punch. I would literally take a bet on my house that Conor cannot repeat this outcome.

So, here's the crux. Normally if a fight plays out for at least 5-6 minutes you start to get a feel for who is consistently finding more success than their opponent. Who's landing more/better shots. Who is dominating the grappling. You get to see the fighter's showcase their skills and start to show who is, overall, the better fighter.

When the fight ends in 13 seconds you can be almost 100% certain that you didn't get to see enough fighting to make a good judgement call on who is really the better fighter and that the fighter who won in 13 seconds has virtually 0% chance of repeating that outcome - aka - luck.

If you had 100 fights between Jose and Conor and he lead with that exact same attack all 100x there is no chance in hell that Conor would KO Aldo all 100x.
* You'd have some fights where Aldo eats the fight, gets rocked, and continues.
* You'd have some fights where Aldo eats the fight, is not hurt, and continues.
* You'd have some fights where Aldo's left-hook clobbers Conor and he's the winner of a 13s fight.
* You'd have some fights where we'd get a Rocky-esque double KO or see two rocked fighters stumble away from each other.

Silva says that Weidman was lucky knocking him out while he was dancing?
Aldo says McGregor was lucky though McGregor predicted HOW he would knock him out?

Of course losers will say they were knocked out by "luck" and not their own failings.

Ill ask a 3rd time?


What in your opinion is an example of an UN-LUCKY knock out???

 

[Toxxus]

Silva says that Weidman was lucky knocking him out while he was dancing?
Aldo says McGregor was lucky though McGregor predicted HOW he would knock him out?

Of course losers will say they were knocked out by "luck" and not their own failings.

Ill ask a 3rd time?


What in your opinion is an example of an UN-LUCKY knock out???

I feel like you're not actually reading my posts before you respond. Did you see that Cung Le marked his own KO win over Franklin as a lucky punch?

Anyway, my opinion of what would be a KO not based on luck is any fight where there's been enough volume to see some consistency. Look at JDS vs. Cain. 1st fight JDS catches Cain with a whopper in the first minute and the fight is over before we can see them test their skills against each other. They fight twice more and with another 50 minutes to try - JDS never repeats that amazing shot. Given the additional validation of an extra 50 minutes of watching them fight each other we can be relatively certain the original outcome was "lucky" and did not indicate who was the better fighter.

Non-lucky KOs off the top of my head: Liddell over Ortiz, Browne vs. Overeem, Silva vs. Griffin, etc.

 

[mmarcelo]

This sounds clever, but it's dumb. Almost all strikes are thrown with the intention to land. What people mean when they say it was a lucky shot, is either that the odds of the opponent reacting the way they did which allowed the shot to land were low, that the shot normally wouldn't ko the opponent, or both. A ko can be lucky because even though you intended to throw the punch, it doesn't mean it was likely going to knock him out if everything didn't align perfectly, which isn't fully under your control (luck).

Some people are getting stuck into semantics... "luck" could be thought as some sort of supernatural force working towards or against someone.. but obviously the meaning in our context is low odds or chance. Even the best fighters have to "bet" on the fly in some exchanges... because they won't have enough time to see opponent's majority range of movement before they choose how many degrees to slip or land a punch

 

[Cake4Breakfast]

It's a fight dude

 

[mmarcelo]

btw clever athletes use statistics in their favour while they "bet" what the other fighter is more likely to do in that split second. There's a video of Anderson advising to aim some punches a bit below the head (chest/neck area) so the chances to find the opponent are higher than aiming at the head during some exchanges.
JDS calls some wild exchanges "lottery" when he is a guest comentator.

 

[Heelhook71]

with MMA you have the smaller gloves but more importantly, when a punch is landed, with the follow up, there is no chance to recover like a knockdown in boxing

That;s all good and well, but it is resulting in way too many upsets

Fighters are the top are all very skilled nowadays, there are no muppets

Anyone can land that one strike

Imagine if tennis matches were won by one great point won by the lesser player or one touchdown in the NFL or one basket in the NBA

I don't mind upsets in sport, its good for the sport but in MMA there are too many and they just do not feel earned

If someone outside the Top 10 beats Federer or Murray in a grand slam over 5 sets they have definitely earnt it

They're not lucky punches if they're set up. Maybe you just don't understand striking as well as you think?

 

[rapha1985]

There's no luck.

It is combat sports and people actually are trying to punch each others in the face for a reason: To KTFO the competition!

 

[Alphafail]

That's because the sport evolved from pride times and the athletes are so much better nowadays... lol.