The Highlight vs The Baddy: How does this one end?

[godhatesacoward]

Chimaev struggled with Burns, he will never have a chance to become MW champion

Burns is lvels above jared gordon but yeah I see your point

 

[jeff7b9]

I'm hopping it ends in a bloody puddle.


May the best man win looking like someone poured a can of red paint on him

 

[WINGNUT]

paddy , easy. Paddy aint a washed Tony Ferguson. Paddy is durable with a chin, and excels in Gaethjes weakness. Gaethje aint knocking paddy out, which realistically is his only way to win.

 

[fightfan70]

i think it will play out similar to the chandler fight.

im a huge fan of justin, but paddy > old gaurd in mma.

 

[Pequeño Corey]

RIP Justin Gaethje 2026

I still laugh every single time this gets posted.

 

[Pequeño Corey]

Chimaev struggled with Burns, he will never have a chance to become MW champion

Yes. One bad night at the office and you’re forever a bum. Topturo struggled against Jai Herbert. Pink goof needs to cut that bozo loose already.

 

[TriangleMonkey]

As long time JG fan, I’m hoping he puts Paddy away with strikes

Paddy should chase the submission as that may be his path of least resistance here

Let’s see if Justin can hold the line from the hype-machine

 

[Slapjit]

It will be a #JustBangGod classic. I predict Paddy gets dropped a time or three but still whoops that ass and gets a late KO or sub

 

[chillyoo]

Paddy seems to keep getting better, would not be shocked if he subs JG.

 

[Guy LeDouche]

I see a highlight reel finish for Paddy.
MMA fans tend to have nostalgic blinders on when it comes to fan favorite fighters. Gaethje is at the end of his career and Paddy has had a nice gilded path to the top.

If you can’t read the signs here than I don’t know what to tell you

 

[TheNewGame]

I see a highlight reel finish for Paddy.
MMA fans tend to have nostalgic blinders on when it comes to fan favorite fighters. Gaethje is at the end of his career and Paddy has had a nice gilded path to the top.

If you can’t read the signs here than I don’t know what to tell you

Gaethje is coming off a win against a guy better than anybody Paddy has ever fought tho. But yeah, Gaethje is a ticking timebomb approaching 40.

 

[BEATDOWNS]

No offense to Gaethje, great fighter and all. He will be known as The Lowlight soon enough.

We Scousers won't get knocked out.

 

[mkt]

Paddy by submission or Gaethje by violent KO. Leaning towards the latter.

I'm thinking Paddy by sub or GnP

 

[Safton]

I think Paddy submits him at this point.

Justin's resume and overall strength of schedule is way better, but this is a crossroads fight where timing and stylistic match-ups matter. I think Justin has begun to noticeably regress and Paddy has only gotten steadily better with each appearance. Paddy is by no means an elite wrestler, but he's big and strong for the division, especially in comparison to Justin who doesn't like cutting weight*. Paddy was also tossing Chandler around after that first round, which is not a trivial thing to do even against a shopworn version of Mike. I should also note that -- despite ostensibly being a sprawl-n-brawl fighter -- Justin's initial TDD is not unassailable. His TDD rating is only 68%, which is about average across the UFC roster. He doesn't have brick wall hips to shuck off everyone who tries to ground him like Jose Aldo. Instead, Justin often relies on turning everything into a wild wrestling scramble until the bell rings or he is able to explode back to his feet... and therein lies the issue in my opinion.

Gaethje's submission awareness & defense has always struck me as one of the bigger holes in his game. He just doesn't seem to care much for learning BJJ at all beyond the most barebones basics. Pimblett on the other hand is a very technical submission artist if he's allowed to work on top of someone and it's hard to just recklessly expose your back/limbs/neck in a scramble to someone like that and not face the consequences. I know Justin was rocked at the time, but just look at what happened the moment he was on the mat against Charles. He tried to squirm and explode and scramble, but just kept falling into one setup after another. This is the same guy who got taken down multiple times by Rafael Fiziev and in the process of scrambling up from one of those takedowns, got placed in danger of a fucking reverse triangle. And that was against a pure striker!

I mean yeah if Justin's able to keep it on the feet it's his fight to lose, even with Paddy's recent striking improvements. Justin has sustained a lot of wear & tear, but he's still the more composed and dangerous striker of the two. But 25 minutes is a long time and I'm not sure Justin can fight a perfect sprawl-n-brawl fight for that long. I'm also not sure if he can do what no one else has done by KO'ing Paddy before Pimblett himself finds a way to force the fight to the mat and snatch up a sub. It doesn't even have to be through a clean takedown; even if Paddy force some sort of awkward scramble, performs a standing back-take against the cage, etc. those might even work.

I'd say I'm leaning about 60% in Paddy's favor. Round 3 RNC I guess.

*

Spoiler

Justin's estimated walkaround weight is like 175-180 pound outside of camp... Paddy rehydrates to that if not more when he steps into the cage. Gaethje's biggest ever rumored cage weight was 173 pounds against Ferguson and I've heard of him weighing even less on fight night. Despite Paddy having a history competing at smaller weight classes, Justin is decidedly the smaller fighter of the two with their current weight cuts.

 

[KO Shotz]

Many hyping up Paddy based on his last fight against an old washed up Chandler. Gaethje almost done too, but he still got some left in the gas tank. I'm picking Paddy to win but it'll be a fight til the later rounds. No matter if Paddy destroys Gaethje or wins by decision, beating 2 guys out of their prime doesn't impress me at all. If Paddy can beat Max, Arman, or Ilia then I'll buy in...but until then I'm not completely sold on the lad.

 

[JKS]

paddy , easy. Paddy aint a washed Tony Ferguson. Paddy is durable with a chin, and excels in Gaethjes weakness. Gaethje aint knocking paddy out, which realistically is his only way to win.

The ironic part about what you said is that Paddy was the one who actually beat a washed Ferguson on a 6 fight losing streak. Meanwhile Gaethje crushed Ferguson in his prime on a 12 fight win streak

 

[Mongoosemk12]

Paddy 2nd/3rd round sub. Wouldn't be surprised if he knocks out Gaethje either tbh.

I hate to agree but this is kind of where I am at as well.

 

[Pancake Sprawl]

i think Paddy. he's young, gigantic, seemingly good chin and not afraid to mix it up. i think people are really sleeping on his mixture of size, youth, and eagerness to get after it. yeah, he's been beating old dudes, but Gaethje is old himself. that's just the way the sport is right now. a bunch of oldheads at the top.

 

[DougieJones]

IDK how it happens exactly, but I think ultimately Paddy wins by sub


It's either that or Justin utterly starches him... but I heard from somewhere that's impossible

 

[WINGNUT]

The ironic part about what you said is that Paddy was the one who actually beat a washed Ferguson on a 6 fight losing streak. Meanwhile Gaethje crushed Ferguson in his prime on a 12 fight win streak

Ferguson was already washed its just everyone he beat prior to that was also washed. cerrone, pettis, kevin lee lol. those just werent the guys to expose ferguson.