Economy The great housing market crash of 2022

deadon said:
More declines in housing.
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Plus the link I posted showed a decline in sales of 8.1%, granted that is NEW home sales. It is a bloomberg article and the author of the article blames the economy rather than increasing interest rates as the main reason.

But it does show that developers have been building a bunch of houses, which will now just sit there until the economy improves... could be quite a while causing these firms to lose money, as they were already paying increased costs to build the homes due to inflation.

Also, Reuters reporting that existing (not new) home sales dropped 5.4% in June, from May, which is a 14.2% drop from last year.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-existing-home-sales-slide-again-june-2022-07-20/
 
cottagecheesefan said:
Plus the link I posted showed a decline in sales of 8.1%, granted that is NEW home sales. It is a bloomberg article and the author of the article blames the economy rather than increasing interest rates as the main reason.

But it does show that developers have been building a bunch of houses, which will now just sit there until the economy improves... could be quite a while causing these firms to lose money, as they were already paying increased costs to build the homes due to inflation.

Also, Reuters reporting that existing (not new) home sales dropped 5.4% in June, from May, which is a 14.2% drop from last year.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-existing-home-sales-slide-again-june-2022-07-20/
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We drove around our area yesterday looking for homes on the market. Theres a bunch! Six months ago there was none and realtors had nothing to sell. We had one come to our door saying she had a buyer for our home, all cash.
The demand has been crazy and now there's all these homes up for sell. I'm going to keep a eye on them and see how long they stay on the market.
 
Just saw this too about the New Home Sales. The other article I posted was about the number of sales, this one about the price, which is falling at an even higher rate than the number of sales. The average price has gone down about 50k from 449k to 402k in just one month. So the number of sales are declining quite a bit along with the price. June of LAST year was the high of the bubble it says with avg price of 457k.

As per the article:

New home sales unexpectedly plunged much more than economists projected in June, according to data released Tuesday, adding to signs that the housing market is abruptly unraveling pandemic-era gains as experts start to worry the downturn could spillover into the broader economy—potentially even triggering a recession.

"The housing slump is deepening, fast," says Shepherdson, noting new home sales fell at a 61% annualized rate in the second quarter and

Illustrating the housing market's gloomy outlook, Atlanta home construction company PulteGroup on Tuesday reported new orders in the second quarter fell 23%

 
HockeyBjj said:
In spite of the fed raising rates, mortgage rates still dropped. Good news for average joes still trying to buy a house

Mortgage rates fall sharply after negative GDP report and Fed's latest hike (msn.com)
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Mortgage rates are indexed to the 10 year Treasury yield, not the Fed funds rate. In other words, the bond market sets mortgage rates, not the Fed.

LVqSY6b.jpg
 
aerius said:
Mortgage rates are indexed to the 10 year Treasury yield, not the Fed funds rate. In other words, the bond market sets mortgage rates, not the Fed.

LVqSY6b.jpg
Click to expand...

Thanks. Learned something today
 
HockeyBjj said:
Halfway through the year, still waiting

Is this thread gonna age as well as the "republicans crying about inflation risks?" thread?

Will be good to have to look back on some of the takes from May/June by the end of 2022, one way or the other
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well the market is already crashing, outright 10-20% already on the US market, and this is only going to continue. So this thread is already pretty accurate, even more so because the Chinese market is also collapsing with similar investors and bankers freaking and why this global implosion is so inprtant to pay attention to.

it is happening there, it is going to happen here too.








just look at how these headlines, how they are interconnect and play off each other.

We are still down net jobs as places like McDonald’s have record jobs. That is because people hVe lost their decent, respectable jobs and now sucking it up and working at service industry shit jobs.

Yet the admin says this is the strongest economy ever, are you literally go into record debt to buy groceries.

Tell me, how will any of this stop record inflation? How will inflation stop at this point? I see some left leaning people on sherdog including @TeTe and others saying this is welcomed as a sign of change.

just let’s ride this out and see who is correct and who is not.

TeTe said:
It's funny reading comments from people across the internet go on about Trump this Biden that. LOL at these dummies giving the POTUS so much credit for what's happening in the country. This was bound to happen regardless of who was President. Partisan drones.

You want to get upset at something.. get mad at COVID, or the Fed or Wall St.... all much bigger contributors to this mess.
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but for reference, who is dictating all these institutions? The democrat uniparty who you likely identify with are the real racist bad guys. Just accept it and you won’t look as stupid going forward,

let’s have this post referenced and let’s see where the country is in a couple months. Bless the sherdog time capsule and let’s all move one another as sherdoggers. If these issues are not as partisan as MAGA vs the uniparty and just because of blahhh, let’s see who’s politics are going to win out and use this as a reference point.

tbis is why sherdog is amazing and god bless every member of sherdog who takes the time to make it such a great community.

But as you say, get mad at all these institution? The fed, etc? Look who is stepping directly inline with the admin? It is all one design and corruption.
 
Weren't there a bunch of posters in here saying there was no way housing was gonna take a dump?

You could get rich doing the opposite of what the WR does.
 
SBJJ said:
Weren't there a bunch of posters in here saying there was no way housing was gonna take a dump?

You could get rich doing the opposite of what the WR does.
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They were told over and over again. I understand being invested but it doesn't change what reality is.
 
deadon said:
They were told over and over again. I understand being invested but it doesn't change what reality is.
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Yea. It reminded me of 08.

But this time is different!!!

This was actually one of the easiest corrections to predict if you just used common sense.

Same as 08.

Nasdaq followed by big caps followed by housing. Only thing different is that we have 20%+ inflation. Actual inflation that is.
 
gremins said:
has there really been a crash though? im not seeing it where i am so far.
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You may not see it, but it's happening.

I live in a sought after area in CA and prices are being cut by 10 to 20%. Problem is buyers have dried up so these numbers will lag.

I predict a 40% cut in many areas in the next 4 months
 
SBJJ said:
You may not see it, but it's happening.

I live in a sought after area in CA and prices are being cut by 10 to 20%. Problem is buyers have dried up so these numbers will lag.

I predict a 40% cut in many areas in the next 4 months
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honestly that sounds fantastic man and i hope it happens. i dont want to pay taxes on a home with a ridiculously inflated value anymore and i dont see how young people are supposed to get into a place either.
 
SBJJ said:
Yea. It reminded me of 08.

But this time is different!!!

This was actually one of the easiest corrections to predict if you just used common sense.

Same as 08.

Nasdaq followed by big caps followed by housing. Only thing different is that we have 20%+ inflation. Actual inflation that is.
Click to expand...
Sure buddy <Lmaoo>
 
gremins said:
has there really been a crash though? im not seeing it where i am so far.
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The answer is no, not at all.

The number of sales have decreased, which some people seem to mistake as a decrease in sale prices.
The sale prices have actually increased last month hitting a new record high in spite of this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brenda...-as-prices-set-a-record-high/?sh=68ed56f8702b

I do think the declining sales are an indication that we have likely hit the peak though (hopefully). Unlikely there will be a crash this year though, probably just a flattening of prices with some modest decreases in certain local overvalued markets.
 
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