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Updated 6/19/23
Bumping as the SCOTUS decision is this week whether Biden's debt forgiveness order can stay in place. I didn't use this thread to follow the process through the courts but considering we are at the end of the road and about to see whether the policy stays in place, it was worth an update.
What I've seen is the odds of forgiveness staying in place hinge on the standing of the case which is still in question and was challenged a few times during oral arguments.
If they decide there isn't standing, the order stays in place. However, if it does have standing, many think it will not have 5 votes to remain in place. Alito/ Thomas are going to be firm nos. Gorsuch would also be assumed to as he is very critical of the executive branch overreach. With that, you'd have 2 of 3 between Roberts, Kavanaugh, Barrett who all didn't seem on board. On the other hand, Barrett was questioning about standing which means you might already have 4 justices in the lack of standing camp. Barrett's other recent ruling on another case this term had to do with lack of standing as well.
Did The Supreme Court Just Drop A Hint On Upcoming Student Loan Forgiveness Case?
Forbes
As an aside, this is one of the lame "concessions" McCathy got from the WH on the debt ceiling standoff that didn't actually matter. The student loan pause was meant unpause at the end of the year. Due to this case, they extended it until it's decided upon. McCarthy made a deal that the pause would end in August or September, which you can see is after the decision is handed down, meaning there really wasn't a change. I suppose you could say this guarantees an unpause but to me, I feel like the WH probably welcomed it. They could now say the unpause wasn't just because of the Courts ruling comings in but also the GOP congress.
Anyways, this is going to be a significant closing chapter on student loan forgiveness. Not the end but certainly going to draw the line in how much the executive can do unilaterally, at least through the HEROES act.
Updated 12/22/21
Looks like this wasn’t the final extension. I don’t see how this won’t continue happening. No president wants to be the guy to make millions of start paying their debts again
Biden extends pause on student loan repayment through May 1
CNN
Updated Post 5/23/21
Biden Drops Student Loan Forgiveness From Latest Budget
Forbes
Was somewhat expecting this since the relief bill did pass. At the moment, this looks like a punt even on the 10k.
Updated Post 4/2/21
New development. Biden may be caving to the 50k. Can't determine if this is similar to the parliamentarian thing where he wants the person to tell him he can't legally do it to show his hands are tied (but keep the base happy he "tried") or it means he's shifted and will attempt to forgive the 50k without Congress
Biden asks Education secretary to see if he can legally cancel student debt
CNBC
Original Post 11/22/20
No thread yet on this but I think it will become a focus in DC once Biden's term kicks off.
More and more people have been pursuing undergraduate and graduate education in the past few decades, leading to student loan debt to become the largest consumer debt category aside from mortgage debt at 1.6T (over 4x what it was in 2004). Democrats have had student loan forgiveness on their checklist for quite sometime. In the primary, you had an array of plans addressing it, from Bernie Sanders calling for full forgiveness, Warren for those making up to 100k (with phase outs afterwards), and Biden with a 10k forgiveness plan in return for 1 year of public service.
Once COVID hit, student loan payments were deferred, defaulted collections/interest paused ultimately by the SoE then Congress and the President until September 30, 2020. Trump then did a EO which continued the pause until the end of the year.
Last week, Schumer along with Warren called for Biden to do a EO forgiving 50k. Biden initially responded with a reference to his 10k in forgiveness possibly without the 1 year service involved. He has since met with Schumer and Pelosi this Friday to discuss this and other COVID relief points that could possibly be passed next year.
Some breakdowns in the debt:
Some viewpoints from each position:
Proponents For:
-The forgiveness or deferment would provide financial relief during the COVID crisis
-Beyond the crisis, loan carriers would now be able to use the money for spending elsewhere or savings
-The forgiveness would address the racial (black-white) wealth gap possibly by 25 points
-To continue for a policy of universal secondary education, prior loans should be addressed as well
-Some higher education degrees are important to society but their career income prospects are significantly lower than the cost in attaining the degree(s) needed
-The cost of this (lower revenues) would be taken over a long course of time and not have an immediate large cash impact for the federal government
Proponents Against:
-This will not solve the problem of rising secondary/post secondary tuition; it addresses a symptom rather than a main ongoing problem
-The distribution among income/ wealth brackets isn't necessarily progressive as nearly half of the debt is with graduate degrees and 35% of balances are with the top 20% income bracket
-Stimulus for COVID relief can be distributed through better means
-Those who made the decision to not to pursue further education were unable to factor in this forgiveness into their decision and are already likely in fixed career trajectory at this point
You may also notice there's a whole other debate on whether this has to be done via legislation or simply executive order.
Some further reading:
Is This Where We Are, America? (New York Times)
Canceling Student Debt Is Not Progressive (RealClearEducation)
Can Joe Biden forgive student debt without Congress? Here’s what the experts say (CNBC)
Forgive Student Loans, but Only a Little (Wall Street Journal)
Go Ahead, Forgive Student Debt (The Atlantic)
No, Joe Biden Can’t Forgive $50,000 Of Student Loans (Forbes)
Biden shouldn’t listen to Schumer and Warren on student loans (Washington Post)
Why Forgive Student Debt? (The Urban Institute)
No, Your Student Loans Should Not Be Forgiven (The Heritage Foundation)
What are your thoughts on student loan forgiveness? Should some or any of the balances be forgiven beyond the programs we already have in place? If not, should deferred payments continue during this period of COVID?
Bumping as the SCOTUS decision is this week whether Biden's debt forgiveness order can stay in place. I didn't use this thread to follow the process through the courts but considering we are at the end of the road and about to see whether the policy stays in place, it was worth an update.
What I've seen is the odds of forgiveness staying in place hinge on the standing of the case which is still in question and was challenged a few times during oral arguments.
If they decide there isn't standing, the order stays in place. However, if it does have standing, many think it will not have 5 votes to remain in place. Alito/ Thomas are going to be firm nos. Gorsuch would also be assumed to as he is very critical of the executive branch overreach. With that, you'd have 2 of 3 between Roberts, Kavanaugh, Barrett who all didn't seem on board. On the other hand, Barrett was questioning about standing which means you might already have 4 justices in the lack of standing camp. Barrett's other recent ruling on another case this term had to do with lack of standing as well.
Did The Supreme Court Just Drop A Hint On Upcoming Student Loan Forgiveness Case?
Forbes
Predictions are predictions though. We won't know until the decision is released.
As an aside, this is one of the lame "concessions" McCathy got from the WH on the debt ceiling standoff that didn't actually matter. The student loan pause was meant unpause at the end of the year. Due to this case, they extended it until it's decided upon. McCarthy made a deal that the pause would end in August or September, which you can see is after the decision is handed down, meaning there really wasn't a change. I suppose you could say this guarantees an unpause but to me, I feel like the WH probably welcomed it. They could now say the unpause wasn't just because of the Courts ruling comings in but also the GOP congress.
Anyways, this is going to be a significant closing chapter on student loan forgiveness. Not the end but certainly going to draw the line in how much the executive can do unilaterally, at least through the HEROES act.
Updated 12/22/21
Looks like this wasn’t the final extension. I don’t see how this won’t continue happening. No president wants to be the guy to make millions of start paying their debts again
Biden extends pause on student loan repayment through May 1
CNN
Updated Post 5/23/21
Biden Drops Student Loan Forgiveness From Latest Budget
Forbes
Was somewhat expecting this since the relief bill did pass. At the moment, this looks like a punt even on the 10k.
Updated Post 4/2/21
New development. Biden may be caving to the 50k. Can't determine if this is similar to the parliamentarian thing where he wants the person to tell him he can't legally do it to show his hands are tied (but keep the base happy he "tried") or it means he's shifted and will attempt to forgive the 50k without Congress
Biden asks Education secretary to see if he can legally cancel student debt
CNBC
Original Post 11/22/20
No thread yet on this but I think it will become a focus in DC once Biden's term kicks off.
More and more people have been pursuing undergraduate and graduate education in the past few decades, leading to student loan debt to become the largest consumer debt category aside from mortgage debt at 1.6T (over 4x what it was in 2004). Democrats have had student loan forgiveness on their checklist for quite sometime. In the primary, you had an array of plans addressing it, from Bernie Sanders calling for full forgiveness, Warren for those making up to 100k (with phase outs afterwards), and Biden with a 10k forgiveness plan in return for 1 year of public service.
Once COVID hit, student loan payments were deferred, defaulted collections/interest paused ultimately by the SoE then Congress and the President until September 30, 2020. Trump then did a EO which continued the pause until the end of the year.
Last week, Schumer along with Warren called for Biden to do a EO forgiving 50k. Biden initially responded with a reference to his 10k in forgiveness possibly without the 1 year service involved. He has since met with Schumer and Pelosi this Friday to discuss this and other COVID relief points that could possibly be passed next year.
Some breakdowns in the debt:
Some viewpoints from each position:
Proponents For:
-The forgiveness or deferment would provide financial relief during the COVID crisis
-Beyond the crisis, loan carriers would now be able to use the money for spending elsewhere or savings
-The forgiveness would address the racial (black-white) wealth gap possibly by 25 points
-To continue for a policy of universal secondary education, prior loans should be addressed as well
-Some higher education degrees are important to society but their career income prospects are significantly lower than the cost in attaining the degree(s) needed
-The cost of this (lower revenues) would be taken over a long course of time and not have an immediate large cash impact for the federal government
Proponents Against:
-This will not solve the problem of rising secondary/post secondary tuition; it addresses a symptom rather than a main ongoing problem
-The distribution among income/ wealth brackets isn't necessarily progressive as nearly half of the debt is with graduate degrees and 35% of balances are with the top 20% income bracket
-Stimulus for COVID relief can be distributed through better means
-Those who made the decision to not to pursue further education were unable to factor in this forgiveness into their decision and are already likely in fixed career trajectory at this point
You may also notice there's a whole other debate on whether this has to be done via legislation or simply executive order.
Some further reading:
Is This Where We Are, America? (New York Times)
Canceling Student Debt Is Not Progressive (RealClearEducation)
Can Joe Biden forgive student debt without Congress? Here’s what the experts say (CNBC)
Forgive Student Loans, but Only a Little (Wall Street Journal)
Go Ahead, Forgive Student Debt (The Atlantic)
No, Joe Biden Can’t Forgive $50,000 Of Student Loans (Forbes)
Biden shouldn’t listen to Schumer and Warren on student loans (Washington Post)
Why Forgive Student Debt? (The Urban Institute)
No, Your Student Loans Should Not Be Forgiven (The Heritage Foundation)
What are your thoughts on student loan forgiveness? Should some or any of the balances be forgiven beyond the programs we already have in place? If not, should deferred payments continue during this period of COVID?
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