Economy stonks v27: banks, the kings of vega

[toasty]

I have 45% of my investments in SPY and 45% in IWM, and then I play with 10%. Of that 10% I have about half of that in TSLA.

My TSLA has about doubled, that was my only big win this year.

I screwed the pooch on TSLA....I was aware of it really early but Elon's pedo guy quotes and production issues and then the taking it private at 420 scared me off. it is the only stock I ever actually thought about shorting and did a test and would've made money as it dropped about 100 during the time period I played with then ZOOOOOOOOM to the freaking moon and I would've gotten slaughtered. If you don't mind me asking what are the other stocks in the play with it 10% stuff?

 

[KeepingItReal]

Thanks. i haven't relly gone there because I thought that place was full on politics and flamewars and stress and that is not what I'm here for. Little prey animals like myself, like the GAY like atmosphere of Mayberry much better. Hopefully a few non-barbarian at the gates types that live around here might kick in a thought or two

Fixed it for you. Also to help you out, here is latest stonks thread in the Warroom.

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/stonks-v27-banks-the-kings-of-vega.4283065/

 

[PG29 red0 Jr]

I screwed the pooch on TSLA....I was aware of it really early but Elon's pedo guy quotes and production issues and then the taking it private at 420 scared me off. it is the only stock I ever actually thought about shorting and did a test and would've made money as it dropped about 100 during the time period I played with then ZOOOOOOOOM to the freaking moon and I would've gotten slaughtered. If you don't mind me asking what are the other stocks in the play with it 10% stuff?

Amazon

In @93, currently at 143.

 

[AFanNotAFighter]

It's a bit more complex than that, with the way Berkshire operates.

The average Joe, with their Robinhood account, if they wanted to borrow money to invest, gets charged interest for it, which can be pretty substantial. Buffett has arranged things where he's the one who actually gets paid for borrowing money to invest.

Berkshire's insurance premiums have exceeded the total of expenses and eventual losses for a long time, even when they've been hit by mega catastrophes. They operate with an underwriting profit almost every year, to the tune of tens of billions in recent years.

It allows Berkshire something even better than free money to invest - they're actually getting paid for holding the money and investing it.

But because of the nature of insurance float - money the insurance company gets to hold because of insurance premiums, but which doesn't actually belong to them, because customers make claims on their policies - they can never go all in on stocks.

Berkshire has a policy where, at a bare minimum, they pledge to hold on to at least $30 billion at all times in cash. So right now they really have $127 billion to play with. They've bought back more than $70 billion in their shares in the last 5 years, bought 26% of OXY for more than $14 billion, and made some big purchases - $11.6 billion for Alleghany last year, $8.2 billion for an increased stake in Pilot Flying J earlier this year, 50% stake in the Cove Point liquefied natural gas facility for $3.3 billion this summer - but the cash is piling up faster than they can spend it. There are worse problems for a business to have.

Was always wondering if there was a stock thread. Probably glanced right over the wretched thread title which is why I never clicked on.I'm a big Buffett fan myself and salivated over the fact that Berkshire Hathaway borrowed money at 0.5% in Japan and invested in stocks paying a 5% yield there. That's LITERALLY free fucking money.

 

[Plutoburn]

I don't really speculate much on the stock market. I split half on standard bluechip ETFs and half on blue chip high yield ETF. My intention is really just making the dividends, in it for the long haul.

 

[zapataxiv]

pickas
that hard r is offensive

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

For every Gamestop , there are 100 Enron

 

[HOLA]

Was always wondering if there was a stock thread. Probably glanced right over the wretched thread title which is why I never clicked on.I'm a big Buffett fan myself and salivated over the fact that Berkshire Hathaway borrowed money at 0.5% in Japan and invested in stocks paying a 5% yield there. That's LITERALLY free fucking money.

And the stocks themselves have more than tripled in value since they started buying them. It was an epic move. Munger recently really praised it:

Hong KongCNN —
Warren Buffett’s decision to invest billions of dollars into Japan was “a no-brainer” that felt like a gift from God, according to his business partner.

“It was awfully easy money,” Charlie Munger, Buffett’s longtime lieutenant and vice chair of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), said in an interview with the Acquired podcast released this week.

“It was like having God just opening a chest and just pouring money into it.”

In the summer of 2020, Berkshire revealed it had bought stakes of about 5% in each of Japan’s top five trading companies. In total, the American industrial and insurance conglomerate invested $6.7 billion at the time, while telling shareholders it could hold and increase the size of those holdings over the long run.

This year, as Japan’s stock markets rocketed to 33-year highs, Berkshire disclosed it had in fact doubled down, taking its stakes in each company to an average of more than 8.5%. The US giant still has room to run, as it has previously stated it could eventually raise its stakes of each firm to 9.9%.

Japan’s Nikkei and Topix indexes are each up more than 20% so far this year.

The firms backed by Berkshire — Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsui & Co., and Sumitomo — are known as “sogo shosha” or general trading companies in Japan. They play a vital role in the country’s economy, dealing in a wide range of industries, including energy, technology and manufacturing.

Munger described the investment opportunity as a rare chance to get in on stable assets with huge cash flow and very little risk. “Something like that — if you’re as smart as Warren Buffett, maybe two, three times a century, you had an idea like that,” said the 99-year-old.

Berkshire was able to pull off its biggest bet outside the United States because of Japan’s historically low interest rates, the executive explained. That meant the conglomerate could borrow money cheaply as far as 10 years in advance, and use the funds to buy stocks with 5% dividends, he said.

“These trading companies were really entrenched, old companies, and they had all these cheap copper mines and rubber plantations, and so you could borrow [easily],” Munger added.

He suggested that Berkshire was in a unique position to borrow at a low interest rate because of its strong credit rating. Other companies “couldn’t get it,” he said. “But Berkshire, with its credit, could. The only way you could get it was to be very patient and just pick away at little pieces at a time. It took forever.”

Now, the conglomerate has invested at least $10 billion, according to Munger.

Buffett’s decision to invest in Japan has buoyed optimism about prospects in the world’s third largest economy. The legendary investor has previously cheered “the future of Japan,” casting more attention to the country from other foreign backers.

 

[Gas121]

Little tiring this seven stock mania market.

Being a contrarian and scooping up stocks near 52 week lows and ones really beaten up in this market. Med and small caps, stable, solid companies and some gambles. There is huge upside not named big tech here IMO and this is where outsized gains will be made. I don't doubt at some point big Tech will be thrown in the dumpster and investors head back to risky, lesser known companies. Investors seem to still be risk off but next year if recession doesn't come then we will be looking at big returns for small and med caps. Let's see how it plays out.

 

[HOLA]

So who here actively plays the stock market? What would you call your investment style or strategy?

95% buy and hold forever, with some short term trading/speculation on the side.

Do you have defined long term goals or is it just a hazy "for retirement" kinda thing?

To beat the market. To be rich. To crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and to hear the lamentations of their women.

Do you do a lot of research and due diligence or are you a meme stonks guy or my dad's cousin gave me a tip type?

Do a good deal of research. Go through the annual reports. Rule #1: don't lose money. You need to worry about that before dreaming about how much you might make.

Do you play options and short stocks or straight buy and hold type?

I've used options very sparingly and only the most vanilla stuff: cash-secured puts and covered calls. I shorted bank stocks during the Great Recession, but haven't since then. You gotta be careful with that shit. They're financial weapons of mass destruction. Look at the loss porn on Wall Street Bets. 99% of the time someone blows up their portfolio it's fucking around with options.

I would love to hear people's current favorite stocks and why, big wins or losses stories etc., If only I had pulled the trigger I'd be rich stories, etc....

Current Portfolio, largest positions to smallest:

Berkshire Hathaway
Mastercard
Union Pacific
Lockheed Martin
Trane Technologies
Patrick Industries
Apple
Microsoft
Waste Management
Costco
Amazon
Alphabet
United Rentals
Itochu
Winnebago
Home Depot
IES Holdings
East West Bancorp
Take-Two Interactive
Nintendo
Occidental Petroleum

 

[toasty]

95% buy and hold forever, with some short term trading/speculation on the side.


To beat the market. To be rich. To crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and to hear the lamentations of their women.


Do a good deal of research. Go through the annual reports. Rule #1: don't lose money. You need to worry about that before dreaming about how much you might make.

I've used options very sparingly and only the most vanilla stuff: cash-secured puts and covered calls. I shorted bank stocks during the Great Recession, but haven't since then. You gotta be careful with that shit. They're financial weapons of mass destruction. Look at the loss porn on Wall Street Bets. 99% of the time someone blows up their portfolio it's fucking around with options.

Current Portfolio, largest positions to smallest:

Berkshire Hathaway
Mastercard
Union Pacific
Lockheed Martin
Trane Technologies
Patrick Industries
Apple
Microsoft
Waste Management
Costco
Amazon
Alphabet
United Rentals
Itochu
Winnebago
Home Depot
IES Holdings
East West Bancorp
Take-Two Interactive
Nintendo
Occidental Petroleum

thanks for the detailed reply Love UNP (have done well on all my Railroad stocks) LMT, Apple, MSFT & WM...Don't hold any of your others.........if you don't mind saying what fills your "short term trading/speculation on the side"

Other than wall street bets do you use any investing forums?

i never short and have never played options.....just can't wrap my head around the principles of them, even though everyone talks about covered calls being a great way to increase profits.

I"ve got a slightly negative PLTR bet and a slightly positive bet on a little bitty underwater exploration company Kraken Robotic KRKNF... almost everything else is blue chip divvy payers. I'm old enough that I'm starting to sell of individual holdings and putting them in "safer" Mutual funds and ETF's but I do like the occasional long shot spec play with a small amount of money on the line

 

[44nutman]

95% buy and hold forever, with some short term trading/speculation on the side.


To beat the market. To be rich. To crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and to hear the lamentations of their women.


Do a good deal of research. Go through the annual reports. Rule #1: don't lose money. You need to worry about that before dreaming about how much you might make.

I've used options very sparingly and only the most vanilla stuff: cash-secured puts and covered calls. I shorted bank stocks during the Great Recession, but haven't since then. You gotta be careful with that shit. They're financial weapons of mass destruction. Look at the loss porn on Wall Street Bets. 99% of the time someone blows up their portfolio it's fucking around with options.

Current Portfolio, largest positions to smallest:

Berkshire Hathaway
Mastercard
Union Pacific
Lockheed Martin
Trane Technologies
Patrick Industries
Apple
Microsoft
Waste Management
Costco
Amazon
Alphabet
United Rentals
Itochu
Winnebago
Home Depot
IES Holdings
East West Bancorp
Take-Two Interactive
Nintendo
Occidental Petroleum

I am mostly a 60% buy and hold guy .
I take some chances on some penny stocks if I like the tech or drug, but they are usually on 1k plays, little downside with lots of reward. Right now waiting on $ARCX to get fucking approved, but they have been making big moves the last week, and still down. Play options also. I shorted GE like an idiot, even though I own GE and got crushed, that was a chart play, and thought it was heading back down, but instead it went over its typical resistance the last 6 months. Last 2 winners were calls on $PENN and $SPDR. Flipped $SPDR for 20% in a day.

Right now $ML saved me from a huge loss, like the kind of loss I would retired a year later kind of loss. I believed in the company so kept buying the dip, so ended up with a shit load of shares and was down like 60%(even after buying the dip and after a 30-1 reverse split)
and wife was giving me a lot of shit because it was a lot of money in the red. Now up about 5% and still not selling. Their subscriptions have increased every quarter for 2 years. They should finally turn a profit in the next 2 quarters and volume has been way up, so that is also a sign to hold until I see what it does when it turns a profit.
Still got my $AMZN at $91 a share after you posted about them. It was not something on my radar.
Too bad Brackis is gone. Next year I will sell my $PCG which I am up 65%(as of Friday), because I dont want to pay taxes on it this year. After CA protected them in court, not too worried about it going to far down. I was going to wait for it to get to $20, but $18 seems to be the resistance for the last 6 months, and want the money for other investments.

I will get more active in this section, but will no longer post any of my option plays, because they only hit when I dont post them on here. As a sports bettor as well, I get superstitious with plays involving my money.

I meant to add. I am eyeing $RBLX but not a buyer until $36-$36.50. Only thing on my radar for right now. Between my kids, nieces, and kids of my cousins, I will probably spend a couple hundo on gift cards for Christmas.

 

[HOLA]

thanks for the detailed reply Love UNP (have done well on all my Railroad stocks) LMT, Apple, MSFT & WM...Don't hold any of your others.........if you don't mind saying what fills your "short term trading/speculation on the side"

This year I made a bet on Eli Lilly and Novo-Nordisk, because of their weight loss drugs, which I considered a pretty speculative trade, because they're already so expensive. Just did it with Bank of America a few days ago too, because I thought banks were way oversold. Those worked out well. Earlier this year I was also involved with Alibaba. That one didn't work out so well.

Other than wall street bets do you use any investing forums?

I'll check out Seeking Alpha. Lots of garbage but you can also get some ideas occasionally.

i never short and have never played options.....just can't wrap my head around the principles of them, even though everyone talks about covered calls being a great way to increase profits.

If you have trouble understanding something Investopedia is a great resource to explain things simply.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coveredcall.asp

I"ve got a slightly negative PLTR bet and a slightly positive bet on a little bitty underwater exploration company Kraken Robotic KRKNF... almost everything else is blue chip divvy payers. I'm old enough that I'm starting to sell of individual holdings and putting them in "safer" Mutual funds and ETF's but I do like the occasional long shot spec play with a small amount of money on the line

 

[HOLA]

I am mostly a 60% buy and hold guy .
I take some chances on some penny stocks if I like the tech or drug, but they are usually on 1k plays, little downside with lots of reward. Right now waiting on $ARCX to get fucking approved, but they have been making big moves the last week, and still down. Play options also. I shorted GE like an idiot, even though I own GE and got crushed, that was a chart play, and thought it was heading back down, but instead it went over its typical resistance the last 6 months. Last 2 winners were calls on $PENN and $SPDR. Flipped $SPDR for 20% in a day.

Right now $ML saved me from a huge loss, like the kind of loss I would retired a year later kind of loss. I believed in the company so kept buying the dip, so ended up with a shit load of shares and was down like 60%(even after buying the dip and after a 30-1 reverse split)
and wife was giving me a lot of shit because it was a lot of money in the red. Now up about 5% and still not selling. Their subscriptions have increased every quarter for 2 years. They should finally turn a profit in the next 2 quarters and volume has been way up, so that is also a sign to hold until I see what it does when it turns a profit.
Still got my $AMZN at $91 a share after you posted about them. It was not something on my radar.
Too bad Brackis is gone. Next year I will sell my $PCG which I am up 65%(as of Friday), because I dont want to pay taxes on it this year. After CA protected them in court, not too worried about it going to far down. I was going to wait for it to get to $20, but $18 seems to be the resistance for the last 6 months, and want the money for other investments.

I will get more active in this section, but will no longer post any of my option plays, because they only hit when I dont post them on here. As a sports bettor as well, I get superstitious with plays involving my money.

I meant to add. I am eyeing $RBLX but not a buyer until $36-$36.50. Only thing on my radar for right now. Between my kids, nieces, and kids of my cousins, I will probably spend a couple hundo on gift cards for Christmas.

Thread isn't he same with Brackis and Rob Mafia gone. Those two alone were like 60% of the posts in here.

 

[44nutman]

Thread isn't he same with Brackis and Rob Mafia gone. Those two alone were like 60% of the posts in here.

I appreciate you keeping it on life support after they left.
I got some $CSCO calls for 3-15-2024 out right now . Up 30% , set a sell at 20% but going to let it run for a couple weeks because I will at least get 20% profit. 49.67 is break even.
also noticed Silver was making moves last week. something to look at Monday.
i collect Silver coins so always watching silver prices and ready for the werewolf apocalypse .

 

[HOLA]

I doubled down on OXY today. First batch I bought at $59.61 and this 2nd I bought at $59.60. It's been range bound for a while. Soon as it hits this point Buffett starts buying and it pops a bit.

Their carbon capture is interesting, but it's hard to get a clear picture at this point. Seems like it could be really lucrative, but we're short on details at this point.

...and unveiling a $550M investment from BlackRock in its first big project to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.

Occidental (OXY) CEO Vicki Hollub said the company's direct air capture business potentially could support more than 1,000 projects to mitigate global warming, opening up a new line of revenue from selling DAC technology and design expertise.

"We will be licensing a lot of this out," Hollub reportedly said on the company's post-earnings conference call.

The CEO said more than 65% of the first plant's capacity through 2030 has been sold to partners, otherwise there is "absolutely no way that we would have the capability to provide all the capital," as reported by Reuters.

In its franchise-like model, Occidental (OXY) would charge a licensing fee and turn over management and construction to partners; the company's first large-scale $1.3B DAC project is expected to start in mid-2025.

 

[HOLA]

Ahh man. Charlie Munger died. He was just talking about looking forward to his 100th birthday party. 1 month shy.

 

[RoastBeast]

BYDDY

Anyone going to jump in?

 

[Gas121]

Ahh man. Charlie Munger died. He was just talking about looking forward to his 100th birthday party. 1 month shy.

Yeah he was still sharp as anybody at his age. One of the GOAT money managers. Going to miss him a lot alongside Buffett. He added a bit of humour to the meetings. RIP, he was legendary.

“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Systematically you get ahead, but not necessarily in fast spurts. Nevertheless, you build discipline by preparing for fast spurts. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day – if you live long enough – most people get what they deserve.” Charles Munger

 

[HOLA]

Yeah he was still sharp as anybody at his age. One of the GOAT money managers. Going to miss him a lot alongside Buffett. He added a bit of humour to the meetings. RIP, he was legendary.

“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Systematically you get ahead, but not necessarily in fast spurts. Nevertheless, you build discipline by preparing for fast spurts. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day – if you live long enough – most people get what they deserve.” Charles Munger

Yeah, he really was funny at meetings. Not often you get accounting humor, but he pulled it off, haha. "I think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words 'bullshit earnings.'"